[News] Monahan on LTIR with season ending surgery. Kylington day to day. Mackey called up

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by BigRed

I agree. He and Toffoli will finish with the same point totals. Tell me why he should be paid signifcantly more?

1) There is more to a forward's worth than just his point total.
2) Eatbread has not had any opportunities to play on the top line, and he's not on the top PP unit either.

So it seems a bit silly to just compare their point totals straight across.

That said, Eatbread really has gone cold as of late, and really needs to pick it up if he's going to warrant $6M per or a number close to it.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

It might be worth pointing out that this is literally Mangiapane's first full NHL season.



- He played the last 44 games as a call up in 2018-19

- He played 68 games in the first COVID-shortened season in 2019-20

- He played 56 games in the second COVID-shortened season in 2020-21

- He's now playing in his first full 82-game season in the NHL



All in all, that's a pretty messed up way for a guy to start off his NHL career. Yet, here he is... already a 30-goal scorer in what's realistically (development-wise) only his sophomore season.

But he's 26 years old so not sure if this is relevant. My guess is this is what he is and that's a streaky .5 - .6 point per game player. Probably good for 20-30 goals per year and 15-20 assists.

Absolutely nothing wrong with this and found money for a 6th round pick.

Hopefully he signs in the $5 million range.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

he scored 30 goals, my concern is his pace in the 2nd half...if we pay him like a 30 goal scorer do we get first half Mangiapane or 2nd half Mangiapane

Going by memory he had near 20 goals before the ice was dry

The shooting percentage was always going to regress a little. Overly lucky to start the year, a little unlucky to end the year.

When you look at 5v5 production going back to 19-20 season, he's been great.

GP: 192
Goals: 50 (1st)
Primary Assists: 28 (4th)
Secondary Assists: 7 (9th)
Points: 85 (4th)

Those 50 goals at 5v5 rank 8th in the entire NHL in that time, and the 85 points rank 51st - this season isn't a flash in the pan. He's been good for 3 years now, and produces like a top line player at 5v5 no matter how you slice it. Plus really he's being doing that with pretty very limited 5v5 ice time with Gaudreau, Tkachuk, or Lindholm in that time.

Mangiapane has played 1410 at 5v5 without any of Lindholm, Tkachuk, and Gaudreau over the last three years and he's still 58% GF% (65 GF / 47 GA), and 58.6% xGF% in that time. The team with none of those 4 on the ice is 44% GF (104-132) and 50.6% xGF%. He's clearly the best forward outside of the top line on this team.

If we look at his per 82 game pace in all situations the last three seasons he's scoring at a:

27 goals per 82 games
47 goals per 82 games

If you flipped him and Tkachuk on top line, and gave Mangiapane top unit PP time then I wonder how different there production would be.

$6M would be perfectly reasonable on a deal for him.

[dino7c]

he hasn't produced like a top line player lately...and he wouldn't have Tkachuk's #'s if he got the PP time IMO. That isn't a knock, Tkachuk is an extremely skilled passer, tipper, and a big body around the net.

Again I do really like the player, if he finishes the season and playoffs with the production he has had lately there is no way I am giving him 6M was my point. Needs to pick it up and get back being a threat every game.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Though Fedorov is a #1C on every team in the NHL if he's not playing behind Yzerman ... and 99 + 66.

In his era, I'd say only Yzerman, Lemieux and Gretzky were better. Maybe Oates. But for the combo of skill, skating and defensive ability, it's Fedorov every time.

Backlund is a highly effective player whose job is defence first. He's an elite 3C who should anchor PK 1 and get some PP2 time. He'd be 3C right now if Monahan was anything more than a shadow of his former self.

Yeah, I'm just saying you normally want a guy with scoring abilities in the #2C role, and your shutdown guy in the #3C role. On very rare occasions you get yourself a Sergei Fedorov who will put up 120 points as your #2C while also winning the Selke as your top shutdown guy.

Generally speaking, the championship model is two scoring lines, a shutdown line and an energy/bruiser line. Fedorov allowed Detroit to have two scoring lines, two shutdown lines and an energy/bruiser line. Having Backlund as our #2C gives us one scoring line, one shutdown line and then two lines of a weird blend of energy/bruisers. Actually it's kinda like there's a scoring line, and then a "score-by-committee" thing with the other three lines. Honestly, it's just weird trying to classify the makeup of this team.

Ultimately, what we really needed was the return of 2019 Monahan. That would have given us two scoring lines and slotted Backlund into the #3C shutdown role where he should be. Hooo boy, that would have been awesome to see.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

1) There is more to a forward's worth than just his point total.
2) Eatbread has not had any opportunities to play on the top line, and he's not on the top PP unit either.

So it seems a bit silly to just compare their point totals straight across.

While I agree, Toffoli also plays a complete game, has done so consistently for much longer and has 2 cup rings. So I’m not seeing a 30-50% raise for mangi over him for any justifiable reason.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

he hasn't produced like a top line player lately...and he wouldn't have Tkachuk's #'s if he got the PP time IMO. That isn't a knock, Tkachuk is an extremely skilled passer, tipper, and a big body around the net.

Again I do really like the player, if he finishes the season and playoffs with the production he has had lately there is no way I am giving him 6M was my point. Needs to pick it up and get back being a threat every game.

20 games don't just make the 170 games before that disappear.

In his last 20 games he has 8 points at 5v5, Elias Lindholm has 9...but I don't seem to see people hand wringing about Elias Lindholm's last 20 games.

Is Mangiapane the issue with his last 20 games? Or is that he has a 6.71% on ice shooting percentage because his teammates are shooting 5% with him on the ice, and he's still shooting 13.3% himself.

People will always seem to find a way to say Mangiapane is not a top 6 forward, or a top forward on this team.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Ultimately, what we really needed was the return of 2019 Monahan. That would have given us two scoring lines and slotted Backlund into the #3C shutdown role where he should be. Hooo boy, that would have been awesome to see.

I would have liked to have seen Gaudreau and Monahan kept together, and lindholm and Tkachuk. If Monahan were heathy, in theory that’s two scoring lines. Though Gaudreau and Tkachuk really thrive together. Anyway. Not going to happen but Monahan playing C with a rEal playmaking wing might have given us what’s we needed. Instead we’ll make do and hope for the best.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by BigRed

While I agree, Toffoli also plays a complete game, has done so consistently for much longer and has 2 cup rings. So I’m not seeing a 30-50% raise for mangi over him for any justifiable reason.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I would argue that Eatbread has played more of a complete game than Toffoli has this year. Plus, Eatbread is the better skater of the two.

Championship experience is a good thing to have, but not something you dish out major money for. Toffoli has been decent in the playoffs throughout his career, but his production has largely been in line with his paygrade.

Eatbread just turned 26 today, and still has potential to improve further. Toffoli is about to turn 30 and is likely at his peak right now.

I really like both players, but I think you're underestimating the potential that Eatbread has.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

20 games don't just make the 170 games before that disappear.

In his last 20 games he has 8 points at 5v5, Elias Lindholm has 9...but I don't seem to see people hand wringing about Elias Lindholm's last 20 games.

Is Mangiapane the issue with his last 20 games? Or is that he has a 6.71% on ice shooting percentage because his teammates are shooting 5% with him on the ice, and he's still shooting 13.3% himself.

People will always seem to find a way to say Mangiapane is not a top 6 forward, or a top forward on this team.

I said I don't want to pay him 6x6 or something unless he picks up his play down the stretch...not that he is bad or I don't like him. Basing this on his agents comments about getting the maximum amount.

This is all IMO of course

I've been labeled an apologist and a hater in the same thread over two pages

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Generally speaking, the championship model is two scoring lines, a shutdown line and an energy/bruiser line. Fedorov allowed Detroit to have two scoring lines, two shutdown lines and an energy/bruiser line.

That's just the model in general, ever since the NHL has had a 20-man lineup. Last-place teams are just as likely to follow it as championship teams. They have the same roles, just not the same quality of players to fill those roles.

What makes champions different is one of two things: either they have better talent than other teams at the top of the roster, or more depth at the bottom, so that the fourth line is contributing more than just ‘energy/bruiser’. Ideally, of course, you have both. (The '89 Flames had 50-goal scorers on each of the top two lines, and Theo Fleury playing on the fourth line.)

The Flames this year are in an odd position, because their best two offensive centres are also their best two defensive centres. The template for that looks a little different from the standard model, because the ‘checking line’ role doesn't really exist as such.

A one-dimensional offensive player usually gets a shot on the second line, which has plenty of scoring opportunities but isn't usually up against the opponent's top line. On a team constructed this way, a player like that is likely to slot on the third line. When it works, that gives you good secondary scoring punch, with minimal loss of defensive ability because the top two lines are good on both sides of the puck. When the Flames have been on their game, that's kind of what we've been seeing.

At present, Jarnkrok isn't performing well enough offensively to be a 3C in this arrangement, and Carpenter was never expected to. It's up to Dube and Ruzicka. If one of those two can grab the spot and keep it, secondary scoring will pick up and the team will be fine. If not, there will be trouble.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's a bit of a worry for me in the playoffs. Teams are going to heavily focus on shutting down the 1st line. I'm just not sure if a Backlund centered line is good enough against an elite opponent in the playoffs. It's not a slight against Backlund and more that he's a 33 year old center on the backside of his career that's never been a big scorer even in his prime. We will soon find out if it's good enough to win a cup or advance deep in the playoffs.

My concern is if the Flames have an answer for the Mackinnon's and McDavid's.
And as much as the final pairing has been great this season, on the road, those two guys could feast on those two if they get the match-ups.

I think the team has more depth offensively, but its streaky depth. Strepth if you will.
- Cassie

[gvitaly]

Wow, I didn't realize just how much of an advanced stats darling Kylington is this season.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1511097250050555906

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

I really like both players, but I think you're underestimating the potential that Eatbread has.

I'm not; I'm just positing that paying for potential has risks and he hasn't proven much yet.

Right now, Mangi has huge potential -- annual 30 goal scorer, maybe. But I'm disinclined to pay for maybes. That's why I'd bridge him to UFA at a Toffoli scale deal That would cover the Flames window with guys like Lindholm + Hanafin still on bargain contracts.

I really like the player. But I'm not willing to lose Gaudreau or Tkachuk over him just yet.

[dino7c]

^^^^^
Well said

[chedder]

Originally Posted by BigRed

I'm not; I'm just positing that paying for potential has risks and he hasn't proven much yet.



Right now, Mangi has huge potential -- annual 30 goal scorer, maybe. But I'm disinclined to pay for maybes. That's why I'd bridge him to UFA at a Toffoli scale deal That would cover the Flames window with guys like Lindholm + Hanafin still on bargain contracts.



I really like the player. But I'm not willing to lose Gaudreau or Tkachuk over him just yet.

Mangiapane is ufa in summer 2023 so we're past the point of bridging him. One year gets him there. I don't think either side wants a one year show-me deal so its either long term (4 plus years) or trade him.

[meh]

Trade him. He’ll fetch a decent return. The window is slowly closing.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by meh

Trade him. He’ll fetch a decent return. The window is slowly closing.

Meh

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by meh

Trade him. He’ll fetch a decent return. The window is slowly closing.

He’ll only be traded if the Flames cannot fit his contract in, due to long term deals with Johnny and Tkachuk. Plus, he could be traded for draft capital without taking on cap.

He won’t be traded as part of a rebuild because the window is closing.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He’ll only be traded if the Flames cannot fit his contract in, due to long term deals with Johnny and Tkachuk. Plus, he could be traded for draft capital without taking on cap.

He won’t be traded as part of a rebuild because the window is closing.

Agree. Secondary scoring wingers don’t grow on trees though so I don’t know what we get for him - a couple of quality young bottom six checkers maybe, which we desperately need? Probably best case scenario.

Again, don’t want to lose the player. But the team will sign the big guys first and see what’s left for others - which is exactly what they should do. For Mangiapane, there may not be enough — especially if his agent’s comments hold water.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk