Russia invades Ukraine

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Wonder if we see a Stalin-esque purge of Russian Generals and intelligence after this debacle.

I’d love to be a fly on the wall in the next meeting between Putin and his generals. It will be straight out of Downfall.

[burn_this_city]

When everyone has to lie to their superiors or face criticism or worse, the head doesn't know what the body is capable of anymore. I almost wonder if Putin knows he's lost as much men and material as has happened. Similar to the chest xray scene from Chernobyl.

[DownInFlames]

Police in Moscow are stopping people and checking their phones.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500490169392242695

[burn_this_city]

Those "police" are the OMON scum that was destroyed outside of Kharkiv a day or two ago.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Itse

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...780199937.html

Uncredited source so take with big pinches of salt, and even if valid it's just just opinion of one FSB analys, but an extremely interesting read touching on a lot topics, so I would still highly recommend reading it.

Basicly "confirming" many previously speculated things, including that the FSB and the military were kept largely in the dark until the attack actually started, meaning real preparations were not made and the Russian forces in Ukraine might be on the verge of collapse due to severe logistics issues.

Also "confirmation" that the Russian leadership was largely working on BS intelligence, provided by analysts who thought they were expected to deliver info telling everything would be hypothetically fine, all hail mother Russia, instead of proper detailed analysis.

His prediction that Russia will be trying to say that Ukraine was in the verge of developing nukes turned out to be correct. Today Russian media published a report claiming that Ukrainians were "months away" from getting nukes

[Enoch Root]

out of thanks, but thanks for this...

Originally Posted by Itse

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...780199937.html

Uncredited source so take with big pinches of salt, and even if valid it's just just opinion of one FSB analys, but an extremely interesting read touching on a lot topics, so I would still highly recommend reading it.

Basicly "confirming" many previously speculated things, including that the FSB and the military were kept largely in the dark until the attack actually started, meaning real preparations were not made and the Russian forces in Ukraine might be on the verge of collapse due to severe logistics issues.

Also "confirmation" that the Russian leadership was largely working on BS intelligence, provided by analysts who thought they were expected to deliver info telling everything would be hypothetically fine, all hail mother Russia, instead of proper detailed analysis.

Some interesting quotes in here:

Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace.

This is Putin's playbook: make as many threats as you can, in order to win negotiations. Whether or not those threats a re at all real, doesn't matter.

To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.
Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly.

To those thinking Putin will simply hit the button because he is a madman - it simply doesn't work like that.

Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better (as long as Putin is in power), but I think fears of a nuclear MAD scenario remains extremely unlikely.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Pointman

His prediction that Russia will be trying to say that Ukraine was in the verge of developing nukes turned out to be correct. Today Russian media published a report claiming that Ukrainians were "months away" from getting nukes

Oh yes, I meant to comment on that too. Clearly, the reason that Russia attacked and took over that nuclear power plant was so that they could then claim that Ukraine was secretly making a dirty bomb.

And that would give Putin the excuse (in his mind, anyway) to hit Ukraine hard, even maybe with a nuke

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

How are you doing Pointman? Have things changed much in the past few days or more or less status quo so far?

Prices are steadily climbing up. People at work talk about war, usually terrified about the uncertain future. Those who planned to go overseas for vacations mostly had to cancel plans.

Other than that, no major changes yet. People in general don't expect any imminent chaos. Sanctions will likely smother us slowly. People will lose jobs. They will have to resort to crime. Social services and police and such are going to be underfunded. Moscow will, at very best, become a much worse city to live at.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

To those thinking Putin will simply hit the button because he is a madman - it simply doesn't work like that.

Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better (as long as Putin is in power), but I think fears of a nuclear MAD scenario remains extremely unlikely.

I'm more interested in when FSB guy talks about the maintenance of their nuclear arsenal, stating that the fuel needs to be replaced every 10 years. Given the state of the Russian military we've seen, how many of those warheads are actually functional?

[CaptainCrunch]

The one thing that the American's could do in the face of the no fly zone mandate is to send Poland about 30 F-16c's to replace their Fulcrums, and then have Poland send those Fulcrums into Ukraine to replace their war stocks. They could also ask Lockheed Martin to rush Polands order of about 30 F-35A's

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I'm more interested in when FBS guy talks about the maintenance of their nuclear arsenal, stating that the fuel needs to be replaced every 10 years. Given the state of the Russian military we've seen, how many of those warheads are actually functional?

Russia has spend a ton of money over the last few years upgrading and modernizing their nuclear arsenal.



also again Russia has about 5500 weapons including about 1600 on ICMB's and SLBM's. So even if half fail its more then enough.



I don't think that we can hope for an outright failure of Russia's nuclear arsenal, even in the face of poor maintenance of their army and poor training. I would play the assumption that its not so for the Nuclear arsenal.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

out of thanks, but thanks for this...



Some interesting quotes in here:

This is Putin's playbook: make as many threats as you can, in order to win negotiations. Whether or not those threats a re at all real, doesn't matter.


To those thinking Putin will simply hit the button because he is a madman - it simply doesn't work like that.

Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better (as long as Putin is in power), but I think fears of a nuclear MAD scenario remains extremely unlikely.

Since noone is afraid of Putin's army anymore, the only threat he can make is nukes. Most will dismiss it as postering, but many thought that excersize on Ukrainian border was postering too.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by DownInFlames

This is a heart-breaking story.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500221871760949250

Putin needs to die a slow painful death.

[AltaGuy]

Think the Russians are going to try to negotiate out of this soon before they either kill Zelensky or destroy completely Ukrainian cities. They probably won't ask for much: a promise that Ukraine doesn't join NATO and some fictitious promise about ridding Ukraine of neo-nazis.

As much as I'd love to see a harsh punishment meted out on Russia and Putin, saving tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives is more important.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

Think the Russians are going to try to negotiate out of this soon before they either kill Zelensky or destroy completely Ukrainian cities. They probably won't ask for much: a promise that Ukraine doesn't join NATO and some fictitious promise about ridding Ukraine of neo-nazis.

As much as I'd love to see a harsh punishment meted out on Russia and Putin, saving tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives is more important.

I have trouble imagining a scenario where Russia would not make signifigant land gains from this war AND Putin remains in power.

But also, removing Putin from power would do a lot. Then you can blame it all on Putin internationally and let Russians deal with the aftermath of their failure internally.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Don't look now, but reinforcements are coming in. The pundits who kept saying that Russia were holding back and didn't send their best stuff was right.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500104612208123906

That music

Sadly, the buses are probably for prisoners and the dump trucks for clearing up rubble. This is material for post-invasion, just like one of the destroyer convoys that was full of riot helmets. They still expect to win.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500508373862727685

Plane or cruise missile downed in Kharkiv

[Pointman]

Those two premises are largely consensus yet contradict each other:

1. Putin wanted a blitzkrieg
2. Putin sent green recruits and old tanks in the first wave, leaving his best on reserves

It could be one or another, but not both?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Those two premises are largely consensus yet contradict each other:

1. Putin wanted a blitzkrieg
2. Putin sent green recruits and old tanks in the first wave, leaving his best on reserves

It could be one or another, but not both?

He could have wanted the first, but thought it was so easy, better to send in the old junk and novices instead of wasting his good stuff. Arrogance being the real failure.

I also wonder if a lot of the fresher equipment is/was in Syria, and was ground down there?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Those two premises are largely consensus yet contradict each other:

1. Putin wanted a blitzkrieg
2. Putin sent green recruits and old tanks in the first wave, leaving his best on reserves

It could be one or another, but not both?

It can certainly be both, as in "Putin wanted a quick and decisive victory, and expected that the green recruits and old tanks could achieve it."