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Old 03-05-2022, 07:07 PM   #3061
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There’s evidence (and as far as I know not disputed) that people respond differently, physiologically, when negative events happen to people that don’t look like them.. Its not a surprise that horrors that are endured by a group A resonate more with people who identify as group A.
While true, there's more to this. When Russia attacked Georgia it was largely a non-response and not a big news item overall, certainly not compared to this.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:11 PM   #3062
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1500258525750206465
https://twitter.com/user/status/1500267486796783621
Translation of above
https://twitter.com/user/status/1500267584847073280
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:22 PM   #3063
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[URL="https://youtu.be/8XzBVI4aUlY"]

Looks like the Javelins are working well.
300 shots taken...280 hits at a 93% rate.

Loved reading the above post as well.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:22 PM   #3064
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While true, there's more to this. When Russia attacked Georgia it was largely a non-response and not a big news item overall, certainly not compared to this.
In 2008 I had a flip phone, and the iPhone 3 just came out. Now, I can watch, in real time, along with millions of others, the events halfway around the world. Engagement has increased with everything now.

I don’t even remember 2008, but I know for a fact I couldn’t have tuned into live events every time I took a dump at work.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:29 PM   #3065
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I presume most Ukrainians will want to return to their country once Putin stops drawing breath. More valuable will be funds to rebuild all the homes that craven feckless #### targeted.
Germany, the Netherlands, France, etc are much richer countries than Ukraine. I imagine a great many refugees will want to stay for the same reasons people from poor countries migrate to rich ones in times of peace - better jobs, more money, higher quality of life.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:30 PM   #3066
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It's telling that the Russians only had one actual armoured vehicle defending the whole convoy, perhaps they had something at the front that left, if this is from today or yesterday it looks like they are running out of AFV's to use to guard their supply lines, which means they will lose this
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:31 PM   #3067
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SO at some point we have to wonder, if Putin can't get it done in the traditional sense of military on military, does he just start hitting the cities with heavier and heavier bombs, casualties be damned?

I mean the sanctions can't really get worse can they? And the west has already shown they will absolutely not engage in an actual fight. So what does he have to lose at this point besides more men?
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:39 PM   #3068
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SO at some point we have to wonder, if Putin can't get it done in the traditional sense of military on military, does he just start hitting the cities with heavier and heavier bombs, casualties be damned?

I mean the sanctions can't really get worse can they? And the west has already shown they will absolutely not engage in an actual fight. So what does he have to lose at this point besides more men?

Its a likely scenario, if you can't defeat your enemies army in the field. You obliterate the civillian population, make them suffer and force a surrender that way.



I expect that the Ukrainian Airforce is getting low on planes and munitions, most of the munitions so far have been for ground based forces. Also Putin knows that there's no help coming in the air or on the ground.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:46 PM   #3069
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While true, there's more to this. When Russia attacked Georgia it was largely a non-response and not a big news item overall, certainly not compared to this.
Part of it is cultural proximity. Part of it is social media. Twitter, Youtube, and TikTok are full of videos of Ukrainians, many of them speaking English, expressing their fear, anger, and defiance. I’d wager the digital footprint of Georgians experiencing invasion in 2008 (or Syrians in 2014, those affected by the ongoing war in Mali, etc) is a tiny fraction the size.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:49 PM   #3070
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Excellent analysis of Russia’s logistics deficiencies.

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Old 03-05-2022, 07:50 PM   #3071
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HW - anyway you can set up an air B and B for your in-laws?
Or better yet, give us your PayPal address to send you money.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:50 PM   #3072
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SO at some point we have to wonder, if Putin can't get it done in the traditional sense of military on military, does he just start hitting the cities with heavier and heavier bombs, casualties be damned?

I mean the sanctions can't really get worse can they? And the west has already shown they will absolutely not engage in an actual fight. So what does he have to lose at this point besides more men?
The Russians have 2 problems, Ukrainian air defenses just got immeasurably better in the last 2 days, the stingers have made it into action, so they have to choose to fly higher, over 10,000 feet which does 2 things, it leaves them no ability to precision bomb any more, they have to carpet bomb, bad for civilians but great for the Ukraine army, this leaves them complete ability to operate, it take helicopters out of the fight all but completely, or stay low and get shot to peices.

Putin's problem is having sold this as a special operation to liberate the Ukraine how the hell do you explain leveling the country and killing hndreds of thousands, he can get away with it for a while but Russia isn't N Korea, they will slowely get real reports in on what is happening and most Russians see Ukrainians as family, they dont hate them, they dont want them dead, Putin really cant go full Grozny on them.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:51 PM   #3073
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It's telling that the Russians only had one actual armoured vehicle defending the whole convoy, perhaps they had something at the front that left, if this is from today or yesterday it looks like they are running out of AFV's to use to guard their supply lines, which means they will lose this
I was just going to say, it looked like there were a few Econoline vans in that convoy.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:57 PM   #3074
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Putin's problem is having sold this as a special operation to liberate the Ukraine how the hell do you explain leveling the country and killing hndreds of thousands
Don't have to worry about being oppressed by your Nazi overlords if you're buried under a collapsed building.

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Old 03-05-2022, 08:53 PM   #3075
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This is a heart-breaking story.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500221871760949250
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Old 03-05-2022, 08:58 PM   #3076
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Don't look now, but reinforcements are coming in. The pundits who kept saying that Russia were holding back and didn't send their best stuff was right.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500104612208123906

That music
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Old 03-05-2022, 09:04 PM   #3077
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Also of note, this was Russia's worst single day aircraft loss in decades. It was noticed that the jets were no longer using guided missiles, and is one of the main reasons why they got hit with such crazy losses as it's believed they may have run out of guided missiles and now need to fly lower to hit with unguided missiles.

Sunday (today in Ukraine) is supposedly the last day of supplies that the Russian military may have left. It's no secret that that Kyev offensive has stalled, rocket fire has dwindled and the Ukrainian counter offensive in Kharkiv was devastating.
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Old 03-05-2022, 09:08 PM   #3078
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I haven’t seen any references to flooding the area around the long Russian column but there is talk of it in this post. If true, it seems like a lot of the column is flooded in now.

https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/67331.html

The post was written by the same guy who explained the tire situation on Russian vehicles.
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Old 03-05-2022, 09:30 PM   #3079
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Sounds like a war crime to me. Wiping out a car full of unarmed civilians at close range? Brutal.
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Old 03-05-2022, 09:36 PM   #3080
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I haven’t seen any references to flooding the area around the long Russian column but there is talk of it in this post. If true, it seems like a lot of the column is flooded in now.

https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/67331.html

The post was written by the same guy who explained the tire situation on Russian vehicles.
Whenever I play Eastern Front wargames, you want to avoid the Pripet Marshes.

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