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Old 03-04-2022, 01:37 PM   #2881
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I understand this sort of thing is a good diplomatic and morale boost. But with everything else they’re trying to handle, does the Ukrainian military really have the time to integrate these guys into their communications and command structure? There are loads of Russian saboteurs and fifth columnists running around Ukraine (which is why Kiev has imposed a curfew). I don’t see how introducing armed bands of foreign randos to the theatre will help matters.
It's much better to fight with willing fighters who may have fighting experience, then the conscripts they took out from fleeing cars away from their family and trying to integrate unwilling participants.

Anything they can get is a plus right now.
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Old 03-04-2022, 01:41 PM   #2882
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I think if the West does take action against Russia, it will be swift, extremely severe (possibly using tactical nukes) and happen without much warning.

The last thing you want is to give Putin and his regime the chance to counter any attack.

Russia has nukes everywhere. There's no way to take out their counter attack capabilities first.

They also have independently powered submarines armed with nuclear ICBMs. They have underground missile silos all over the country. It'd be difficult to take a single one of these out, let alone all before Russia has the time to act. Russia has 2-3000 actively deployed nuclear warheads ready to fire at any given time. Russia is, unfortunately, way ahead of the West on this one.
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Old 03-04-2022, 01:43 PM   #2883
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Ex Israeli special forces crossed into Ukraine today from Poland, also some veterans from Canada who fought in Afghanistan.
Uh oh...I'm not very well versed regarding the Canadians, but my understanding is that Israeli Special Forces is the 'Not F***ing Around Crew.'
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Old 03-04-2022, 01:46 PM   #2884
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I understand this sort of thing is a good diplomatic and morale boost. But with everything else they’re trying to handle, does the Ukrainian military really have the time to integrate these guys into their communications and command structure? There are loads of Russian saboteurs and fifth columnists running around Ukraine (which is why Kiev has imposed a curfew). I don’t see how introducing armed bands of foreign randos to the theatre will help matters.
It's common for external fighters and mercenaries to join in these types of wars.

My guess is that the Ukrainian command is giving mercenaries specific tasks that don't require integration into bigger units.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also established an “International Legion of Territorial Defence of Ukraine” and lifted visas for volunteers. Ukrainian officials say 16,000 have volunteered to join the fight.

However, sources told Middle East Eye that there are also private military contractors with significant war experience among the volunteers. In addition to that, there are private contractors who arrive in the country for extraction, evacuation and defence purposes that are hired by the private companies.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...ing-Kyiv-fight

Russia has definitely had all sorts of mercenaries in the region since the last round of hostilities started.
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Old 03-04-2022, 01:48 PM   #2885
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Do we really need to revisit the hard facts underlying MAD? A nuclear (or even serious conventional) attack on either the U.S. or Russia will result in enough missile launches to effectively destroy human civilization. Sucks, but that’s the deal.
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Old 03-04-2022, 01:51 PM   #2886
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Do we really need to revisit the hard facts underlying MAD? A nuclear (or even serious conventional) attack on either the U.S. or Russia will result in enough missile launches to effectively destroy human civilization. Sucks, but that’s the deal.
Yeah.

I can't believe someone suggested it might be an option for the west to attack Russia and to perhaps use tactical nukes.

dangerous thinking. Putin might use nukes, so we should use them first?
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Old 03-04-2022, 01:53 PM   #2887
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It's common for external fighters and mercenaries to join in these types of wars.

My guess is that the Ukrainian command is giving mercenaries specific tasks that don't require integration into bigger units.



https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...ing-Kyiv-fight

Russia has definitely had all sorts of mercenaries in the region since the last round of hostilities started.
Mercenary units are units. They have command structure. They aren’t just a bunch of dudes with military experience.

I guess maybe these guys will be deployed well behind the lines guarding depots and stuff. But I have a hard time seeing how they could be deployed on the front lines or in areas where they have to maneuver and coordinate with regular forces.
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Old 03-04-2022, 01:57 PM   #2888
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1499827786454044674?s

Not sure if posted yet, update on Russian estimated losses
Yea that's nuts, they are losing 4 APCs an hour. That's just APCs, nuts. How can you possibly sustain those types of losses?

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Old 03-04-2022, 01:59 PM   #2889
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1499832329333882884
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Old 03-04-2022, 02:02 PM   #2890
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Mercenary units are units. They have command structure. They aren’t just a bunch of dudes with military experience.

I guess maybe these guys will be deployed well behind the lines guarding depots and stuff. But I have a hard time seeing how they could be deployed on the front lines or in areas where they have to maneuver and coordinate with regular forces.
I presume most of the volunteer fighters are guys with actual experience. Basically unpaid mercenaries. Assuming they speak the language, you could probably integrate a trained soldier into an existing army somewhat quickly.

I do agree, if its just random untrained people running amok, it's probably not overly helpful.
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Old 03-04-2022, 02:06 PM   #2891
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Not too many changes to the lines yesterday except heavy fighting near Antonov airport by elements for the Russias Central MD Grouping. Western MD Group has made more progress along the road to Kyiv, now are about 50KM from the capital but only along the road and the supply lines seem really long there for them from their area of control.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1499756771258294274
https://twitter.com/user/status/1499790600802996228

Larger map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_R...ion_of_Ukraine
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Old 03-04-2022, 02:06 PM   #2892
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Yea that's nuts, they are losing 4 APCs an hour. That's just APCs, nuts. How can you possibly sustain those types of losses?
These are numbers coming from the Ukrainians, so they could be exaggerated. Russia may have as many as 15,000 APCs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._Ground_Forces

That being said, I'm assuming a significant number of this 15k are tied up elsewhere and/or not operational. If the losses are half of what the Ukrainians are stating the are, the Russians are going to have to start sending people in on foot in a few weeks.
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Old 03-04-2022, 02:08 PM   #2893
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Originally Posted by CliffFletcher View Post
Mercenary units are units. They have command structure. They aren’t just a bunch of dudes with military experience.

I guess maybe these guys will be deployed well behind the lines guarding depots and stuff. But I have a hard time seeing how they could be deployed on the front lines or in areas where they have to maneuver and coordinate with regular forces.
The West have been training the Ukrainian Military for years. Clearly they can communicate. I didn't speak Spanish/Polish/Nepalese or well I'm not sure specifically what langue Jordians speak, but we all worked affectively.

All you need is some liaison officers to work with this units and you are away. You don't need to worry about training these individuals on simple soldiering skills. You can point them in the direction and let them go.

I certainly wouldn't leave well training and highly motivated troops guarding stuff in the rear. Those boys are there to kills Russians. The Ukrainians need to facilitate that.

Edit: if they are green individuals without any experience then all bets are off
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Old 03-04-2022, 02:15 PM   #2894
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
These are numbers coming from the Ukrainians, so they could be exaggerated. Russia may have as many as 15,000 APCs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._Ground_Forces

That being said, I'm assuming a significant number of this 15k are tied up elsewhere and/or not operational. If the losses are half of what the Ukrainians are stating the are, the Russians are going to have to start sending people in on foot in a few weeks.
TASS briefly reported the numbers a few days back and they were fairly close to what the Ukrainians were reporting before that article got pulled down and "sanitized" is my guess. Other organizations have been independently trying to verify the destroyed vehicles on both the Russian and Ukrainian side and they only have them at 620ish Russian vehicles destroyed that can be independently verified. Here is a sample from Oryx w/ videos/photos for every destroyed vehicle.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1499850081939464194

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Old 03-04-2022, 02:18 PM   #2895
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1499852381835698188

https://twitter.com/user/status/1499844446258663430

News of this operation appears to be legit. Have to imagine this is potentially a major turning point in the invasion. LET'S GO!

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Old 03-04-2022, 02:21 PM   #2896
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Old 03-04-2022, 02:22 PM   #2897
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
These are numbers coming from the Ukrainians, so they could be exaggerated. Russia may have as many as 15,000 APCs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._Ground_Forces

That being said, I'm assuming a significant number of this 15k are tied up elsewhere and/or not operational. If the losses are half of what the Ukrainians are stating the are, the Russians are going to have to start sending people in on foot in a few weeks.
Ironically they would have been better off starting that way,
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Old 03-04-2022, 03:14 PM   #2898
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One benefit of the Ukrainian forces still holding the line as best as possible is that some of the equipment and weapons is hopefully making it through. Getting that to frontline troops as best as possible is going to be a key component here.

Hopefully some of the air defense capabilities are also arriving to limit and minimize the damage form rockets and bombs destroying the cities.

Truly tragic for all involved and I know this isn't popular, but tragic for the soldiers on both sides. Lot's of conscripts and young, inconsequential men being lied and led to death for no reason other than their President is a madman with delusions of grander.
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Old 03-04-2022, 03:16 PM   #2899
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We’re the Russians this poorly organized in Barbarossa?
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Old 03-04-2022, 03:18 PM   #2900
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We’re the Russians this poorly organized in Barbarossa?
Much worse since Stalin purged most of the professional officer corps. They didn't stabilize the line until December (after suffering a number of staggering defeats that are almost incomprehensible today), then threw it away their advantage by attacking too early in 1942, but fortunate the Germans threw away their advantage by attacking too far and after that, the Red Army was on the ascendant.

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