Russia invades Ukraine

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by karl262

Imagine now traveling to Russia for any reason and at customs they search your social media stuff. Everyone posting in a thread like this could be in trouble.

Let me check your;

Facebook: clean
Instagram: clean
Twitter: clean

Calgarypuck: BUSTED COMRADE.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by surferguy

Regarding the sanctions - perhaps some smarter people here can help me through this line of thought. How does the punishment play out long term?

Russia is getting severely penalized at the moment and I suppose a number of scenarios can play out to end this war. So let’s fast forward to the end of the war part. When do sanctions lift and how do you go about that part? I mean if it’s not done correctly are we just doomed to another round of generational hate to the west inside Russias borders? Perhaps that is just a given now that outside news seems to be cutoff and the government propaganda machine goes to work.

I don’t think I’m articulating my question/thoughts very well here but perhaps others can jump in to further elaborate on the thought process.

Definitely no smarter than you, but I think your questions are exactly what is so crazy/terrifying about this situation: there is no exit strategy. Unpredictable positive events could occur - Putin is assassinated, military coup in Russia - but without an unpredictable change to the status quo, there are so many other horrible possible outcomes that it's hard to wrap my head around them all.

[The Fisher Account]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

In a way it’s kinda fascinating to watch modern fascism unfold. It’s different than 20th century fascism but certainly some of the tell tale signs are there.

Hmm would seem like globalism does have some benefits lol

[SebC]

I don't see the sanctions being lifted without a full Russian retreat and reparations. But there also has to be a path to lift them, otherwise Russia would see them as "sunk cost" and they'd be useless as an incentive.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Table 5

You're only looking at it from the sales side though, when you also have to take into consideration the production aspect. Russia may not important to China as a customer, but they are probably very important to them as a supplier of commodities. Russia is full of oil, gas, aluminum, copper, nickel, wheat, fertilizer etc. and China is a commodity monster that just eats up anything it can get to fuel its own economy. Without access to a stable supply, it too suffers...which is probably why they are abstaining from any sanctions.

Let's face it, Russia shut off from the rest of the world will have repercussions for all of us. Europe will probably be the one to suffer the most, at least in the short/medium term, as they are so reliant on Russian energy and wheat. But it will reverberate in China, and North America, and everywhere else. There was already a commodity crunch BEFORE all this Russia stuff came around...this will just make it worse.

There has been discussion for years about whether and when the Yuan wouid join or displace the dollar as the de facto global currency. If China continues to play the 'neutral' party in international issues like this that becomes more likely. If Russia can only trade with China who can trade with everyone else they become a power broker. Russia alone won't tip the balance but as China's sphere of influence grows through belt and road, etc. you could see it happening eventually.

[surferguy]

Originally Posted by edslunch

There has been discussion for years about whether and when the Yuan wouid join or displace the dollar as the de facto global currency. If China continues to play the 'neutral' party in international issues like this that becomes more likely. If Russia can only trade with China who can trade with everyone else they become a power broker. Russia alone won't tip the balance but as China's sphere of influence grows through belt and road, etc. you could see it happening eventually.

I don’t know what this means can any one offer a brief explanation?

[Trojan97]

Originally Posted by Cappy

These vehicles are in rough shape (look at the wheels). They haven't seen a mechanic in 30 years

https://twitter.com/user/status/1499763286392385541

I posted a thread from this guy as well the other day where he gave his thoughts on why the Russian vehicles were breaking down at such a high rate. Seems like his observations have been pretty spot on.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by edslunch

There has been discussion for years about whether and when the Yuan wouid join or displace the dollar as the de facto global currency. If China continues to play the 'neutral' party in international issues like this that becomes more likely. If Russia can only trade with China who can trade with everyone else they become a power broker. Russia alone won't tip the balance but as China's sphere of influence grows through belt and road, etc. you could see it happening eventually.

The Yuan is not a free currency by any means. The USA isn't perfect either, but, personally, I wouldn't have my livelihood dependent on the whims of the CCP, and I can't imagine any major corporation wants that either.

[Rutuu]

Why lift sanctions ever for the Putin regime? Every commodity can be produced somewhere else and supply chains can reform. There's more of an argument to ratchet up sanctions.

You're negotiating with someone without reciprocity.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

Calgarypuck: BUSTED COMRADE.

We see you've participated in multiple jihads. Can you please come into this side room with us?

[you&me]

Originally Posted by surferguy

I don’t know what this means can any one offer a brief explanation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative

Basically China's plan to secure and develop resources and markets around the world for their own good.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

Why lift sanctions ever for the Putin regime? Every commodity can be produced somewhere else and supply chains can reform. There's more of an argument to ratchet up sanctions.

You're negotiating with someone without reciprocity.

Because the lifting of sanctions is the carrot.

[SebC]

Ukraine says it destroyed a unit tasked with assassinating Zelensky and other officials after being tipped off by the FSB (Russian intelligence).

https://vancouversun.com/news/world/...b-3d522a7e7254

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by blankall

The Yuan is not a free currency by any means. The USA isn't perfect either, but, personally, I wouldn't have my livelihood dependent on the whims of the CCP, and I can't imagine any major corporation wants that either.

A bit off topic, but a bigger fear for me is China creating a digital currency, then using it as the only payment method for belt and road countries, going so far as to make their citizens use it too(under the guise of a stable easy to access currency). A digital Yuan equivalent could be a back door to surpassing the USD as the reserve currency.

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by surferguy

Regarding the sanctions - perhaps some smarter people here can help me through this line of thought. How does the punishment play out long term?

Russia is getting severely penalized at the moment and I suppose a number of scenarios can play out to end this war. So let’s fast forward to the end of the war part. When do sanctions lift and how do you go about that part? I mean if it’s not done correctly are we just doomed to another round of generational hate to the west inside Russias borders? Perhaps that is just a given now that outside news seems to be cutoff and the government propaganda machine goes to work.

I don’t think I’m articulating my question/thoughts very well here but perhaps others can jump in to further elaborate on the thought process.

I don't think the sanctions really even start until March 26th (which would explain why Pointman has not noticed any difference yet). Once sanctions are eventually lifted, I would expect still a negative impact to the Russian economy (assuming Putin is still in charge) as international companies are not going to want to take the higher country risk associated with the regime.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

Why lift sanctions ever for the Putin regime? Every commodity can be produced somewhere else and supply chains can reform. There's more of an argument to ratchet up sanctions.

You're negotiating with someone without reciprocity.

Two reasons really:

1) There is a significant humanitarian cost to sanctions. Both millions of Russians who are directly affected and potentially billions of people in developing nations who are going to have reduced access to food and fuel because of rising prices.

2) If there is no plausible off ramp, then Russia's incentive is to inflict maximum damage, since there are unlikely to be additional consequences that result from that. The safest way for this to end is for Russian leadership to be convinced that deescalation is less costly than continuing the war. If the sanctions will never be lifted, then there is basically no cost to continuing the war and they will get increasingly desperate and dangerous.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

We see you've participated in multiple jihads. Can you please come into this side room with us?

"Yeah....you're gonna need to have a seat over there...."

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Trojan97

https://twitter.com/user/status/1499763286392385541

I posted a thread from this guy as well the other day where he gave his thoughts on why the Russian vehicles were breaking down at such a high rate. Seems like his observations have been pretty spot on.

Couple maintenance incompetence with "military grade" and you have a recipe for disaster

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

We see you've participated in multiple jihads. Can you please come into this side room with us?

I knew I shouldn’t have supported Wannamaker against Putin’s DVD player voting machines.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by SebC

Ukraine says it destroyed a unit tasked with assassinating Zelensky and other officials after being tipped off by the FSB (Russian intelligence).

https://vancouversun.com/news/world/...b-3d522a7e7254

If the FSB want no part of this war maybe they should do something about it at home.