Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I think the Tkachuk and St. Louis connection is exaggerated, but I do think Tkachuk is all business. If you show him the money, I think he will sign with the Flames. If he is unhappy, he can always ask to be traded and the Flames organization has never been one to hold players back or deny trade requests. You have to do it as soon as possible though. If you wait until free agency is looming and he already assumed most of the risk that comes along with waiting, the temptation to wait just a little longer becomes stronger. I am afraid this might already be the case with JG. He is so close now, he can probably taste it.

I think that is right. Tkachuk is more likely to sign a big money deal now as he's more that 1.5 years from truly cashing in. Johnny is playing well and close to UFA, and he basically has all the leverage. I assume it will take lots of dough to sign him away from that.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I view those and interviews in their home town about how their dream was to play for their childhood favorite team about equally. At the end of the day, in the vast majority of cases, money talks.

Whether or not they had bed sheets of their favorite team is the apparent x-factor in all this.

[SmoggyFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Its not done yet cause that's a part of the negotiation and both sides trying to squeeze the best deal for them.

That's why every new contract for top players these days comes down to seconds before midnight, or even after it (Landeskog).

That sounds like an assumption based on your fears. Do you think players are always lying about liking the city and team they've been playing for for years and have deep friendships and roots with? Or would it actually, maybe, kind of make sense that they would be just telling people how they feel?

I think that players are given talking points, and trained on what to say to sound/look as endearing as possible, because perception is everything. Remember that fiasco about how Johnny was asked how he'd like to play for the Flyers someday as his hometown/favourite team growing up? We're still dealing with that fallout.

Take everything said in the media with a grain of salt. It's not done until there is pen to paper. The rest is just lip service and fan appeasement.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by blankall

You also have to look at when those contracts were signed. $8 million four years ago, is not the same as $8 million now.

Salary cap in 2017-18: $75 million
Salary cap today: $81.5 million

Not very different.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I assume he can’t collect his bonus and then retire. He’d have to pay it back?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I’m not 100% certain, but I’m pretty sure that’s the risk the club takes when handing them out.

The only other comparable I have is the CFL. Admittedly, not a great comparison but it’s all I have.

[bax]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He has so many deep friendships and roots in Calgary that he spends the offseason back home.

I expect that Johnny would consider staying in Calgary if they offer him maximum term and dollars.

But his statement about him wanting to stay are largely meaningless. What else can he say? What else should he say? I think Calgary's hot start has likely increased his chances of staying.

For the record, Fox told everyone who interviewed him at the draft that his intention was to spend 4 years in college and become a FA, and sign with the Rangers. He was completely upfront with teams. It's why he fell to the 3rd round. The Flames picked him as they thought he represented good trade value at that stage, and they were correct. And he might always change his mind.

Do you have any proof of the Fox stuff? From what I’ve read Fox wasn’t a high pick because of his size and his lack of high end skating ability.

I seriously doubt he was telling teams he would refuse to sign at the draft. He wasn’t some can’t miss prospect. He even instagrammed after the fact about being blessed to be drafted by the Flames.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Whether or not they had bed sheets of their favorite team is the apparent x-factor in all this.

Time to sign Cale Makar and all the kids who grew up on Flames bedsheets.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Salary cap in 2017-18: $75 million
Salary cap today: $81.5 million

Not very different.

Just looking at a 4 year period under pretty much the worst possible financial conditions brings in an 8.6% increase:

An $8M player becomes a $8.7M player.

Look at the 4 year period leading up to the period you used:

Salary Cap in 2013: 64.3M
Salary Cap in 2017: 75M

That’s a 16.3% increase.

An $8M player becomes a $9.3M player.

8.6% over 4 years isn’t insignificant, but it’s also not what we should expect going forward - even if next year and the one beyond that doesn’t seem a crazy jump, it’ll be there shortly thereafter.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

8.6% over 4 years isn’t insignificant, but it’s also not what we should expect going forward - even if next year and the one beyond that doesn’t seem a crazy jump, it’ll be there shortly thereafter.

You're assuming that revenue will go up at the pace it did before 2017, when teams could freely milk cable-TV subscribers and nobody had any health concerns about going to arenas. Those days are gone and they're not coming back. Whatever source the next big revenue increase may come from, it's not on the horizon yet.

I don't expect a much bigger increase in the next four years than the last four. But it's irrelevant in any case, because the cap is stagnant right now, when Gaudreau is looking for a new contract. Half the league is over the cap at the moment and using LTIR to square the books. It's the worst time to be fishing for a big UFA deal.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He has so many deep friendships and roots in Calgary that he spends the offseason back home.

I expect that Johnny would consider staying in Calgary if they offer him maximum term and dollars.

But his statement about him wanting to stay are largely meaningless. What else can he say? What else should he say? I think Calgary's hot start has likely increased his chances of staying.

For the record, Fox told everyone who interviewed him at the draft that his intention was to spend 4 years in college and become a FA, and sign with the Rangers. He was completely upfront with teams. It's why he fell to the 3rd round. The Flames picked him as they thought he represented good trade value at that stage, and they were correct. And he might always change his mind.

This is entirely and patently false.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Salary cap in 2017-18: $75 million
Salary cap today: $81.5 million

Not very different.

It sure feels like the way that money is distributed has changed.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It sure feels like the way that money is distributed has changed.

That's true. A higher percentage is going to the stars, and the players in the middle of the roster are often having to settle for less. When the cap was rising rapidly, there was enough money to satisfy both groups.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It sure feels like the way that money is distributed has changed.

Fewer big deals to players about to hit 30 years old.

More money allocated to players in their prime.

More money allocated to star players

Less money allocated to replacement level players.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

You're assuming that revenue will go up at the pace it did before 2017, when teams could freely milk cable-TV subscribers and nobody had any health concerns about going to arenas. Those days are gone and they're not coming back. Whatever source the next big revenue increase may come from, it's not on the horizon yet.

I don't expect a much bigger increase in the next four years than the last four. But it's irrelevant in any case, because the cap is stagnant right now, when Gaudreau is looking for a new contract. Half the league is over the cap at the moment and using LTIR to square the books. It's the worst time to be fishing for a big UFA deal.

Well HRR should be increasing thanks to the US rights deal, but the cap will lag because of the decision to play players well in excess of 50% during the pandemic. I’m sure there are models that show long that decision will drag down the cap, but it won’t be forever. And then the cap might increase very quickly.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Fewer big deals to players about to hit 30 years old.



More money allocated to players in their prime.



More money allocated to star players



Less money allocated to replacement level players.

So on that note I was thinking. Johnny is 28. He'll be 29 when this next contract starts. I'd imagine that would be making Tre or any other manager think about that 7 or, in our case, 8 year deal.

[HighLifeMan]

Gaudreau 8 years / 62M (7.75M AAV) other teams would have to offer 8.86M AAV over 7 years to meet that total. Fair number for both sides and a contract comparable to Sean Couturier.

Tkachuk 6 years / 51M (8.5M AAV) - this pays him appropriately and takes him to 31 years old where he can still cash in and finish his career wherever he deems fit. He get's slightly more than his brother and both become UFA's the same summer.

That's only an extra 2.5M in capspace compared to this season.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Salary cap in 2017-18: $75 million
Salary cap today: $81.5 million

Not very different.

$8M is now $8.7M.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Gaudreau 8 years / 62M (7.75M AAV) other teams would have to offer 8.86M AAV over 7 years to meet that total. Fair number for both sides and a contract comparable to Sean Couturier.

Tkachuk 6 years / 51M (8.5M AAV) - this pays him appropriately and takes him to 31 years old where he can still cash in and finish his career wherever he deems fit. He get's slightly more than his brother and both become UFA's the same summer.

That's only an extra 2.5M in capspace compared to this season.

I don't think Johnny is looking for a "fair" contract to forgo UFA. If he would sign for $7.75M, the deal would have been done a long time a go. I also doubnt he'll feel he's worth less than Tkachuk.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by chedder

So on that note I was thinking. Johnny is 28. He'll be 29 when this next contract starts. I'd imagine that would be making Tre or any other manager think about that 7 or, in our case, 8 year deal.

On paper, the Flames want to get Gaudreau to a deal similar to what the Bruins signed a former Hart Trophy winner to.

IMO the problem is this: Johnny's faction did not appreciate how the Flames handled the 2016 contract negotiations when they had total leverage (because Johnny ws not eligible for aribtration). So there is a vested interest in "compensating" for that past situation, either by getting above market value out of Tre, or by testing the market.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Whose reality? The one you made up in your head? All signs point to him wanting to get a deal done here. Most players who want to go UFA tell their agent they don't want to negotiate during the season, talks will take place once the season is done. That is not the case here. Is it possible he ends up going to free agency? It's possible but not likely and hardly the reality of the situation.

Are the Flames and Gaudreau even negotiating?