[PGT] Flames 4 Flyers 0 - make it 6 in a row!

[BrennyBaller]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Hits are a notoriously subjective stat, especially hits during road games where the home team counts them.

I actually think its the Dome stats counters that tend to skew it. I've been in a fantasy league for 7 years with Hits and Blocks as categories. Outside of Giordano and occasionally Andersson, no Flames defenseman has been worth having over the past few seasons as they don't get credit for hits/blocks much. I've had them both on my team and watch every game, and will see a hit that doesn't get counted.

Alternatively, a team like the Canadiens for example always seem to have 4-5 D that are roster locks. A guy like Chiarot is extremely valuable as he gets credit for 5+ hits and blocks a night. It's super interesting to pay attention too.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by AC

https://twitter.com/user/status/1454830953373732864

This simply tells me that they play against poor QoC. /s

[GioforPM]

If you get to the puck first you aren’t going to rack up hits. I suspect most team hitting leaders are forwards who do a heavy forecheck.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by AC

https://twitter.com/user/status/1454830953373732864

Damn Daniel.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by timbit

In eight games, six points and plus ten is well above typical for a top defenceman.

Not sure what this has to do with my question about hits.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Not sure what this has to do with my question about hits.

Well, Rasmus has one hit on the stats I looked at and Tanev has only 2 and Hanifin has 4. The only D in double digits is Gudbranson and he has 11. So they obviously count pretty low.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Not sure what this has to do with my question about hits.

Not sure what your question about hits has to do with being a top defenceman.

As other posters have pointed out, there is no ‘typical̄’ number of hits, because they are counted subjectively and the criteria vary wildly from one rink to another. Whoever counts hits at the Saddledome has been taking lessons from the Black Knight in Monty Python: ‘’Tis but a scratch!’

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Not sure what this has to do with my question about hits.

The point is that when you have 6 pts in 8 games, and are +10, the number of hits he has is irrelevant.

[Enoch Root]

^ on that note, the Flames' D is currently on pace for 184 points.

[activeStick]

Finally got to watch this game...

1st period:

- Philly actually started the game quite well, but were unable to get any shots on Markstrom
- Johnny is really on this year and I've said it before, clearly has bought into the system showing this again by being first man back on a Philly rush and knocking down a centering pass with his stick... great stuff to see.
- The first unit on the first PP looked real good... good passing, and nice movement by the entire unit.
- Noticing the Flames really moving the puck quickly and advancing forward with incredible pace... for some reason, it seems really noticeable so far
- Gudbranson... this guy was really steady again in the first... those CPers who wrote this guy off - don't quit your day job to become a pro scout
- Good period overall, Flames didn't dominate and Flyers kept up with the Flames

Second period:

- Thought Ritchie actually looked decent in the first and he's carried that over to the second retrieving and distributing pucks for and to his linemates
- Not sure if the Flames turned it up in the second or if Philly lost their momentum, but it's been all Flames this period
- Kylington is showing a ton of confidence with the puck out there... so good to see
- Man, what beautiful puck movement on the PP goal from the entire unit during the entire sequence and Rasmus with the elite pass and Monahan with elite skill to handle the hard pass and finish
- Monahan looks real good this second period and again with a good chance on another PP... wouldn't be surprised if he goes on a bit of a streak here as he tends to score in bunches

3rd period:

- Zadorov has looked his best all year... no glaring mistakes but also nothing good that stands out to note... Obviously the coaches have been working with him in practice... didn't see him even attempt one of his trademark hits, wonder if the coaches have been on him for being taken out of position when he tries these?
- Wow, protecting a 1-0 lead and the top line had a few good chances at about the 8 minute mark... good to see they aren't pulling back trying to hang on... all 3 guys are really in sync and playing FAST
- LOL that PP goal was a thing of beauty, crisp, hard, fast passes, tape to tape and not the easiest finish either by Tkachuk on that angle
- Really liking how all lines and the defense group too have continued to bring it in the third... clearly being told to do this from the coaching staff
- Love seeing Lindy jump in right away to defend Tkachuk! So much for the team not wanting to stick up for Tkachuk!
- Pulling the goalie with more than 4 minutes left only trailing by 2 is an... interesting move by AV...
- Really happy with the Flames play tonight and "big ups" to Markstrom for getting a shutout despite seeing so few shots... not easy to stay focused on these kinds of games for goalies
- Philly is a decent team, I think... they just faced a much better team

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by activeStick

- Pulling the goalie with more than 4 minutes left only trailing by 2 is an... interesting move by AV...

Actually a pretty smart move. Some of the stats guys have looked into this, and concluded that most coaches pull their goalie too late to make a difference. When you're down late, the odds are against you no matter what you do. But to maximize your chances of tying the game, IIRC, you should be pulling the goalie with something like 3 minutes left when down a goal, and even earlier when down by two.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Actually a pretty smart move. Some of the stats guys have looked into this, and concluded that most coaches pull their goalie too late to make a difference. When you're down late, the odds are against you no matter what you do. But to maximize your chances of tying the game, IIRC, you should be pulling the goalie with something like 3 minutes left when down a goal, and even earlier when down by two.

I figured smarter people than me have figured this out already - thanks!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Actually a pretty smart move. Some of the stats guys have looked into this, and concluded that most coaches pull their goalie too late to make a difference. When you're down late, the odds are against you no matter what you do. But to maximize your chances of tying the game, IIRC, you should be pulling the goalie with something like 3 minutes left when down a goal, and even earlier when down by two.

I remember reading that it was 6 mins.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I remember reading that it was 6 mins.

On reflection, I believe you are correct. That was the number that came to my mind, too, but I thought I must be remembering it wrong.

Another tidbit: The same stats guy(s) said that if you are down by a goal at any time in the third period and get a power play, you should pull the goalie and play 6-on-4. I'd quite like to see that.

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Not sure what this has to do with my question about hits.

Maybe we should measure the number of charity hospital visits he's made this year instead then. If we can't figure it out, you can make up the number.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I remember reading that it was 6 mins.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

That has to be based on flawed statistics.

When pulling the goalie, you are essentially banking on maintaining possession or at least avoiding changes in possession that lead to scoring chances.

I had this discussion long ago with some folks investing in statistics

I do not believe that any modeling extrapolated appropriately to consider likelihood of avoiding such changes in possession

It’s a longer conversation but long story short, pulling the goalie with 6 minutes left is dumb

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

That has to be based on flawed statistics.

When pulling the goalie, you are essentially banking on maintaining possession or at least avoiding changes in possession that lead to scoring chances.

I had this discussion long ago with some folks investing in statistics

I do not believe that any modeling extrapolated appropriately to consider likelihood of avoiding such changes in possession

It’s a longer conversation but long story short, pulling the goalie with 6 minutes left is dumb

Actually, they did take changes of possession into account. The thing is, it doesn't matter how many goals you lose by. If you're down one late, you gain a lot by scoring the next goal, and lose nothing by giving up the next goal. Based on the known historic probabilities of scoring an empty-netter vs. the known historic probabilities of scoring 6-on-5, it turns out that you maximize your chances of tying the score by pulling the goalie with about 6 minutes left.

[GioforPM]

I think coaches pull goalies with lots of time and two behind with the intention that, if they score quickly, they put the goalie back in for a while.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think coaches pull goalies with lots of time and two behind with the intention that, if they score quickly, they put the goalie back in for a while.

Sure, they do make bad decisions.

How many coaches throw the goalie back in when play continues and their window of probability has closed? None (unless there is a whistle).

The error came when extrapolating 1 min vs 2 min times and it all breaks down past 2-3 minutes due to increasing probability of change of possession

There are no data points for pulling the goalie with 6 min left. That’s an extrapolation. Roy was a wild man for pulling in the 2-3 min range.

Pulling the goalie is going “all in”

The recommendation is what it is but I am pretty sure the methodology is flawed

[Tsawwassen]

Post game links
http://sportsstats.cbc.ca/hockey/nhl...cap139694.html
https://scores.nbcsports.com/nhl/rec...=15&final=true
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/games/2366742