Friedman: Gaudreau not expected to comment on contract status

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’m saying PO performance is a factor, not everything.

I mean, yes, every single player has different circumstances, and that’s why lots of comparables are used, and that’s why players and GMs usually disagree on who they are. Gaudreau says “pay me like Marner and Panarin”. Treliving says “how about Laine and Barzal”.

1 year deal for 7.5M after a 24 point season. You realize Gaudreau had more than double?

I hope Tre doesn't use that one as a comparable for anyone

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by nik-

Actually "what I'm going with" was a really direct concept that you decided to inject a bunch of irrelevant information into for literally no reason.

Go back and read what I said. It's super simple. You basically created a whole bunch of thoughts I never had and are now confused by me having these thoughts.

Odd.

No you made a simple assumption that I don't find logical.

I've given you supporting arguments for why the simple assumption doesn't wash for me.

You don't have to agree with me, in fact with our history I will always assume you won't. But don't invent some narrative of me being off on some sort of bizarre tangent that doesn't fit the conversation because to me, and I'm guessing to others it fits 100%.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

1 year deal for 7.5M after a 24 point season. You realize Gaudreau had more than double?

I hope Tre doesn't use that one as a comparable for anyone

The point is, it’s going to be a mass of comparables with all kinds of similarities and dissimilarities. He could say “I’ll pay you $2M more than Buchnevich” or “1M more than Reinhart”. And then they go back and forth on why one is closer than the other.

[Yoho]

The time to negotiate should have been long gone. A week before NTC kicked in you table your best offer if no dice move him for what you could get shopping the entire league.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not how I see it.

A guy that is very process driven is well aware of pressure points and timing when managing assets.

Every team has players walk. Every team locks up players.

So he passed the 5 team deadline, are you saying he was unaware of it? Wasn't sure what it meant? Didn't know that going by it meant less leverage?

I find all of those tough to see.

They let it go by for a reason, I think we can agree on that.

He either thinks a contract is coming, or decided himself or was told that it's worth the risk vs the team being poor this year.

So you think Coleman called Gaudreau, Gaudreau said "I don't know buddy" or "none of your business" or "I'm testing the market" and he signed anyway?

I think that as long as the Flames offered the best term/money for Coleman, Gaudreau's answer didn't matter. He could've said something like we are still working on it but are far apart. It's a business and players know it. Just about any player without a full NTC can be moved at any point. Also, Coleman already has two cups, maybe playing with Gaudreau wasn't a factor. We simply don't know.


I still think it is more likely than not, that the Flames sign Gaudreau. That said, we can always trade him at the deadline. If he really wants out I'm sure he wouldn't mind going to a contender for a couple of months.


As for the 5 team deadline, I'm not sure how much time there was between when the Flames could sign Gaudreau to an extension, and the deadline itself. It was probably days or weeks. Which is a very short time to finalize a deal, even if you were having discussions in the year prior. I'm not too worried about it.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The point is, it’s going to be a mass of comparables with all kinds of similarities and dissimilarities. He could say “I’ll pay you $2M more than Buchnevich” or “1M more than Reinhart”. And then they go back and forth on why one is closer than the other.

When you sell your house you don't use comparables from a different neighborhood 5 years ago


The market is the market

All UFA contract, near PPG for career (no you don't just take the worst year) plus small market/Canada costs more

take it or leave it, I would like to hear the plan though if 9M is too much

I hope it starts with an 8 too but it seems to me he could easily get 9 on the open market. Watch he tear up the Olympics playing with a star center too.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

When you sell your house you don't use comparables from a different neighborhood 5 years ago


The market is the market

All UFA contract, near PPG for career (no you don't just take the worst year) plus small market/Canada costs more

take it or leave it, I would like to hear the plan though if 9M is too much

Those are contracts from last year. From pretty comparable markets, actually.

Name me the team that’s gonna pay him that much as a UFA, and how they are going to do it.

ETA: You don’t take the career (usually unfair to include rookie years etc) or just the worst/last year, but I think the last 3 seasons is a pretty standard way they go.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Those are contracts from last year. From pretty comparable markets, actually.

Name me the team that’s gonna pay him that much as a UFA, and how they are going to do it.

Any number of teams would give it to him...he would be the top UFA. Its a year out I don't know exactly who.

If he plays on a Lindholm/Tkachuk line he will probably be PPG+ just like he was last season

If Zach Hyman can get 5.5 Gaudreau can get 9

Last 3 seasons Gaudreau has 206 points in 208 games (not exactly playing with superstars)

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Those are contracts from last year. From pretty comparable markets, actually.

Name me the team that’s gonna pay him that much as a UFA, and how they are going to do it.

ETA: You don’t take the career (usually unfair to include rookie years etc) or just the worst/last year, but I think the last 3 seasons is a pretty standard way they go.

I doubt Johnny cares what Treliving thinks the market is and what the comparables are. Johnny is likely not looking for a FMV deal to stay in Calgary. He’s looking to cash in big time, or he’ll move on.

Now JMO, but if he would truly sign for his FMV, he’d be signed by now.


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[dino7c]

Find me a comparable that has 206 points in his last 208 games and was signed as a UFA

again a guy with 53 NHL games just got 9x5 including 2 RFA years


Market is the market...maybe you can squeeze him to 8.5

[Roof-Daddy]

A team like Philly (for example) won't have to pay Johnny as much as he'll want the Flames to IMO.

If the Flames get him extended I expect the AAV will be starting with a '9'

If he ends up making it to UFA, my bet is he signs with a team in the eastern US and the AAV will make many Flames fans wonder why Treliving didn't sign him if that's all it took. The answer will be that it would have taken much more than that to keep him here.

My guess is the Flames will be rebuilding within the next two seasons. I think they are good enough to compete in this weaker division this season, and as a result JG walks as a UFA for squat because they won't sell at the deadline.

IMO they won't be able to get Tkachuk extended either. That guy is STL bound, it's only a matter of time. Same with his brother. That's why he's turning down 8 x $8,000,000 from Ottawa. He likely wants the same type of short term deal Matthew got from the Flames, so he can accept a QO and then be a free agent at 25.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Any number of teams would give it to him...he would be the top UFA. Its a year out I don't know exactly who.

If he plays on a Lindholm/Tkachuk line he will probably be PPG+ just like he was last season

If Zach Hyman can get 5.5 Gaudreau can get 9

Not many contending teams can squeeze in $9M without moving out significant players.

Using a half season of points in which part was in garbage time is just as bad as taking one season in which he played badly IMO. And I never sue Edmonton contracts as an indicator.

Gaudreau’s best argument is Marner. Treliving’s is Barzal. Or Landeskog. And the flat cap.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Not many contending teams can squeeze in $9M without moving out significant players.

Using a half season of points in which part was in garbage time is just as bad as taking one season in which he played badly IMO. And I never sue Edmonton contracts as an indicator.

Gaudreau’s best argument is Marner. Treliving’s is Barzal. Or Landeskog. And the flat cap.

Why does it have to be a contending team? We are talking about a long term UFA contract

All I have said is Gaudreau could easily get 9 on the market...he could unless he totally implodes this season


Barzal wasn't a UFA

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

A team like Philly (for example) won't have to pay Johnny as much as he'll want the Flames to IMO.

If the Flames get him extended I expect the AAV will be starting with a '9'

If he ends up making it to UFA, my bet is he signs with a team in the eastern US and the AAV will make many Flames fans wonder why Treliving didn't sign him if that's all it took. The answer will be that it would have taken much more than that to keep him here.

My guess is the Flames will be rebuilding within the next two seasons. I think they are good enough to compete in this weaker division this season, and as a result JG walks as a UFA for squat because they won't sell at the deadline.

IMO they won't be able to get Tkachuk extended either. That guy is STL bound, it's only a matter of time. Same with his brother. That's why he's turning down 8 x $8,000,000 from Ottawa. He likely wants the same type of short term deal Matthew got from the Flames, so he can accept a QO and then be a free agent at 25.

Could all happen. They should have traded a year ago. Contracts are Treliving’s forte but the big wins were RFAs - I can’t recall a similar pending UFA situation with a star player unless it was Gio (which was a coup).

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

A team like Philly (for example) won't have to pay Johnny as much as he'll want the Flames to IMO.

If the Flames get him extended I expect the AAV will be starting with a '9'

If he ends up making it to UFA, my bet is he signs with a team in the eastern US and the AAV will make many Flames fans wonder why Treliving didn't sign him if that's all it took. The answer will be that it would have taken much more than that to keep him here.

My guess is the Flames will be rebuilding within the next two seasons. I think they are good enough to compete in this weaker division this season, and as a result JG walks as a UFA for squat because they won't sell at the deadline.

IMO they won't be able to get Tkachuk extended either. That guy is STL bound, it's only a matter of time. Same with his brother. That's why he's turning down 8 x $8,000,000 from Ottawa. He likely wants the same type of short term deal Matthew got from the Flames, so he can accept a QO and then be a free agent at 25.

My thoughts exactly. As another poster predicted in the other thread, it’s very unlikely JG and Tkachuk are Flames two years from now.

Hopefully Treliving is able to convince ownership of this and make the best deals he can before we lose these guys for nothing.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Why does it have to be a contending team? We are talking about a long term UFA contract

All I have said is Gaudreau could easily get 9 on the market...he could unless he totally implodes this season


Barzal wasn't a UFA

He could get $9 million but at the same time he can suffer a career ending injury and lose out on $60 + million.

It's a risk/reward. If I'm in his shoes I take the guaranteed money as soon as it's available.

I'm sure Jose Bautista wishes he had a do-over.

[dino7c]

All I have said is he could get 9 if he wanted assuming a career average season...I was mainly pushing back against the "7 is more than enough" crowd

2010 called they want their UFA market back

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Why does it have to be a contending team? We are talking about a long term UFA contract

All I have said is Gaudreau could easily get 9 on the market...he could unless he totally implodes this season


Barzal wasn't a UFA

I was pretty sure someone said contending team. And even non contenders have a hard time with cap. I’m not sure it’s as easy as you think. I don’t know that Gaudreau is seen as a game changer outside of Calgary. I think he’s seen as a really good one dimensional player like Kessel was.

UFA v. RFA doesn’t seem to matter any more for top players.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

He could get $9 million but at the same time he can suffer a career ending injury and lose out on $60 + million.

It's a risk/reward. If I'm in his shoes I take the guaranteed money as soon as it's available.

I'm sure Jose Bautista wishes he had a do-over.

It's a risk that's mitigated by the fact that he's already earned $43+ million in his career. If he's been smart with his money he's already set for life and will consider it much less risky to wait it out for the best possible contract combined with the most favorable destination to spend the remainder of his career.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Find me a comparable that has 206 points in his last 208 games and was signed as a UFA

again a guy with 53 NHL games just got 9x5 including 2 RFA years


Market is the market...maybe you can squeeze him to 8.5

You can't compare the two..

Karpisov's contract takes him until 29, while Johnny's will be taking him until he's 36/37.

The wild are paying for Kaprisov's prime years. Calgary won't be doing so with Johhny.

Landeskog and Couturier fit the age bracket and recent production in the past two seasons.