2021 Blue Jays Season Thread

[fundmark19]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Good points.

I think a surprising amount of the W/L difference is the Jays had at least 10 of those games earlier in the season where the bullpen "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory". Not necessarily blown saves, but games where we were up when the relievers came in and lost us the game.

The Rays' above average bullpen allowed those games to be saved, which seems to be the difference in records, given Jays are better in almost every other offensive metric and fairly similar in overall pitching metrics.

Ray's are also first in league in runs scored and runs per game. Rays bullpen has also been blowing games as of late. Should be a fun week hopefully for my sake Rays come out on top. Septemeber is such a stressful month!

[transplant99]

Twins up 5-0 on the Yankees after 3 innings.

More of that please.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

Jays up to +147 in run differential. Yankees are +27.

Remarkable turnaround, yes, but the law of averages over a 162-game season seems to be playing itself out.

Gonna need the bullpen this week against the Rays. It'll be a good barometer of the Jays playoff readiness.

I think it's actually +167 for the Jays now. But even back at the Trade Deadline, the Jays were third in the AL and 5th in MLB in terms of run differential. So that trend has held steady, they have closed a bit of ground on Houston and Tampa who sit 1 & 2, in that time.

In a way it's like how the 2015 team was 50-51 when they made the Tulowitzki deal. That team had a good run differential and the expected win loss was much better than the actual record. That team also got David Price, and went on a run to close the year.

This team had similar indicators, but didn't need to make as bold of moves. They were a bit slower to get going, but things are starting to average out a bit. Another big difference is that in 2015 the rest of the AL East was a bit unsettled as the Boston had aged out, Tampa was retooling, and the Yankees and Orioles were both sort of middling teams. This year the Rays have been legit all year and Boston and New York are both trying to compete. This team may not end up where the 2015 team did regular season wise, but I do think this version is every bit as good as that team.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think it's actually +167 for the Jays now. But even back at the Trade Deadline, the Jays were third in the AL and 5th in MLB in terms of run differential. So that trend has held steady, they have closed a bit of ground on Houston and Tampa who sit 1 & 2, in that time.

In a way it's like how the 2015 team was 50-51 when they made the Tulowitzki deal. That team had a good run differential and the expected win loss was much better than the actual record. That team also got David Price, and went on a run to close the year.

This team had similar indicators, but didn't need to make as bold of moves. They were a bit slower to get going, but things are starting to average out a bit. Another big difference is that in 2015 the rest of the AL East was a bit unsettled as the Boston had aged out, Tampa was retooling, and the Yankees and Orioles were both sort of middling teams. This year the Rays have been legit all year and Boston and New York are both trying to compete. This team may not end up where the 2015 team did regular season wise, but I do think this version is every bit as good as that team.

I think so too.

This teams top players are also about a decade younger than that 2015 Jays and this is their first full year of playing baseball for a lot of them. So it makes sense that it would take time for them to get used to the realities of what is a marathon season. The average age of the Blue Jays batters is the youngest in the league actually.

[flamingred89]

Oh man. Got home from work to catch the end of the Yankee game. A horrible missed call by the ump allows Gardner(who else?) to reach. And then Judge hits a 3 run bomb to tie it.

[Inferno]

The ump bails the Yankees out and now it's tied.

[Jiri Hrdina]

An amazing thing to me is that this team will end up with 6 players with 80 or more RBIs. And none of them are named George Springer. Though one of them is named Randal Grichuk who I assume wouldn't be hitting 80 if not for Springer's injuries.

But still that's 2/3rds of the every day line-up just mashing in the ribbies.

[activeStick]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1437507740885295106

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

I think so too.

This teams top players are also about a decade younger than that 2015 Jays and this is their first full year of playing baseball for a lot of them. So it makes sense that it would take time for them to get used to the realities of what is a marathon season. The average age of the Blue Jays batters is the youngest in the league actually.

100% agree. This is a far more sustainable core as you have two big time pieces in Vlad, and Bo who are home grown and still very young.

Back that up with Teoscar who came via trade as a younger guy, and other home grown guys like Gurriel, Kirk, and if you could ever get Biggio healthy and back to producing like a 800 OPS guy that he had been. That's a good bit of talent from within to add to Springer. You have 7 position guys who can produce at 800 OPS or better, and some flexibility to add in a Semien or other guy to that lineup. This team should be able to make a solid run for more than one to two years here.

[SuperMatt18]

I know it still pains people to say this but Shapiro and Atkins have done a good job.

They didn't handle tearing down the 2015 roster in the most graceful way, but overall they've really done a great job here in building a core that contend over a longer horizon than just going all-in for 1-2 years.

[flames_fan_down_under]

I don't know if there really is a graceful way to do a complete tear down. Fans develop emotional attachments to a roster and inevitably the guys tearing that apart are going to be the enemy.

I think Shapiro and Atkins have done a masterful job.

They have no doubt made some mistakes along the way, which in baseball is bound to happen, but the positive moves have largely outnumbered the negative ones. The surplus value gained with guys like Teoscar Hernandez, Gurriel Jr, Robbie Ray, Stephen Matz, Semien, the list goes on and on, has allowed them to spend money on Springer and Ryu.

I personally love their emphasis on development, creating that state of the art complex in Dunedin is a huge moment for the Jays franchise. Every team has an analytics department, every team looks to unearth inefficiencies in the baseball market, but the next big wave is development. Unearthing surplus value in players through world class development tools will be the next big "moneyball" wave.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I know it still pains people to say this but Shapiro and Atkins have done a good job.

They didn't handle tearing down the 2015 roster in the most graceful way, but overall they've really done a great job here in building a core that contend over a longer horizon than just going all-in for 1-2 years.

I had a post on this a few pages back, where I noted that as much as fans wanted Rogers to pour more money into the team at that time and try to keep it going, it did not make a lot of sense given the ages of Jose Batista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson who were the core of that team. The only economical home grown guy on that roster was Marcus Stroman, and maybe Kevin Pillar who was far from a core type piece.

But this go round, the better players are the more cost controllable young guys, and I think Rogers will be a bit more willing to commit money for a longer window of spending.

We see it with the Flames...just because you could spend money to try and compete for a playoff spot, doesn't mean you should spend the money that day. Especially in Baseball where it is 10 of 32 in the playoffs every year.

[activeStick]

That hit by Hernandez dropped perfectly

[bluejays]

Crossing my fingers here. Vlad can do it.

[flamingred89]

Yarbrough is not throwing strikes tonight. Jays are just swinging at a lot of junk outside the zone. They need to be more patient and wait for their pitch.

[activeStick]

Solid inning so far

[flamingred89]

Was that Grichuks best AB of the season?! Patient. Spoiling pitches. And cranks a double!

Let's ####ing go!

[chummer]

Great hitting Jays!!

[activeStick]

Wish the playoffs were now

[The Big Chill]

Bottom half of the order getting it done tonight!