All analytics said the Brouwer deal was bad before it was made. All analytics say Ristolainen is bad at offence and defence.
If the Flames analytics are showing different, they've made mistakes.
My point is, many GMs thought Risto was worth a 1st round pick. Are they not also using analytics? Is there something wrong with the analytics in general or is there something wrong with the analytics that the Flames are using specifically?
How can the Flames be so adamant that Risto is a bad player, yet multiple teams offered a 1st round pick for him AND he's going to be a UFA too.
Something doesn't add up.
This board is laughing at the deal because we all here think Risto sucks, but that's because we've been fed by the Flames that Risto sucks. Does he suck or are the Flames just wrong and we are wrong for buying what they were selling? It's hard to give the Flames the benefit of doubt when they have been a complete failure in player assessment, the results speak for themselves.
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Calgary Flames, PLEASE GO TO THE NET! AND SHOOT THE PUCK! GENERATING OFFENSE IS NOT DIFFICULT! SKATE HARD, SHOOT HARD, CRASH THE NET HARD!
My point is, many GMs thought Risto was worth a 1st round pick. Are they not also using analytics? Is there something wrong with the analytics in general or is there something wrong with the analytics that the Flames are using specifically?
How can the Flames be so adamant that Risto is a bad player, yet multiple teams offered a 1st round pick for him AND he's going to be a UFA too.
Something doesn't add up.
Teams use analytics but don't make ( or at least shouldn't) conclusions based on them. And all probably value analytics differently so you get different outcomes.
My point is, many GMs thought Risto was worth a 1st round pick. Are they not also using analytics? Is there something wrong with the analytics in general or is there something wrong with the analytics that the Flames are using specifically?
How can the Flames be so adamant that Risto is a bad player, yet multiple teams offered a 1st round pick for him AND he's going to be a UFA too.
Something doesn't add up.
This board is laughing at the deal because we all here think Risto sucks, but that's because we've been fed by the Flames that Risto sucks. Does he suck or are the Flames just wrong and we are wrong for buying what they were selling?
Yes. 100%. There is no way anyone can make up any stat to make Ristolainen look good, unless you want to look at something like blocked shots (which is typically an indicator that you play in your end of the ice).
My guess is most general managers have a very poor understanding of analytics (and I hate the term analytics/advanced stats since they really are not difficult to comprehend).
Either Fletcher made this deal without consulting his analytics team, or the Flyers have no analytics team.
At least Gostisbehere drives play offensively a little bit.
Ristolainen is big, and hits/blocks shots but all other metrics have him as a liability on the ice.
I actually think Ristolainen might be better on a different team with more defensive structure and a better defensive parter. But to move the equivalent of Gostisbehere, Hagg, 1st, 2 2nds to be able to bring him in is just a ridiculous move.
My point is, many GMs thought Risto was worth a 1st round pick.
Whoa there big fella. We have no proof that multiple GMs were offering anything. Let's not make it sound like there was a long line at Buffalo's door. What we know was there was other teams sniffing around, and Buffalo demanded a top 15 pick, which Philly agreed to. But nothing tangible that teams were willing to meet the price.
Maybe this speaks more to the Flames failure in analytics. We know the Flames analytics team does not like Risto. We also know the Flames, with this analytics team place, allowed the Flames to sign guys like Brouwer and Neal.
What's more likely, the rest of the league is wrong or the Flames management is wrong?
Whoa there big fella. We have no proof that multiple GMs were offering anything. Let's not make it sound like there was a long line at Buffalo's door. What we know was there was other teams sniffing around, and Buffalo demanded a top 15 pick, which Philly agreed to. But nothing tangible that teams were willing to meet the price.
These is evidence that teams who offered a first were told their first was not high enough.
I think many GMs/front offices are overrated and shouldn't be employed in the NHL. There are actual intelligent guys with professional accreditations - CPA, CFA, MBA, analytics experience. I'll wait to see how many GMs have real professional accreditation.
Seems to me like an old boys club of former players or just plain nepotism.
So when people say other GMs thought XYZ etc. Who really cares. I think most GMs in the league are underqualified. They're not the most intelligent people teams could hire for the position.
I bet you that the people I know in my network with investment banking backgrounds, FP&A, business valuations could form a team and be a formidable front office in the NHL.
Last edited by InternationalVillager; 07-23-2021 at 12:39 PM.
My point is, many GMs thought Risto was worth a 1st round pick. Are they not also using analytics? Is there something wrong with the analytics in general or is there something wrong with the analytics that the Flames are using specifically?
How can the Flames be so adamant that Risto is a bad player, yet multiple teams offered a 1st round pick for him AND he's going to be a UFA too.
Something doesn't add up.
Well the Oilers don't use analytics at all, and they were rumored to be one of the teams interested. And I'm sure they aren't the only team that doesn't rely heavily on analytics.
Ristolainen is big, hits, blocks shots, and has played big minutes. There are are always going to be NHL GMs that value and overpay for that. Likely the ones that don't use analytics.
I'm sure there is a lot of difference between the public and private models, but pretty much there are no public models that show Ristolainen as having positive value.
Here is Dom Luszczyszyn from the Athletic's breakdown of the value given up by the Flyers this week to acquire Ristolainen.
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I’m not saying Ristolainen is great, but analytics shouldn’t be the only thing taken into account. Goals assists and points he produces, and he’s a big hitter.
Buuuuuuuuut with that said, still a horrible trade for Philly. Just think Risto isn’t this horrible player as people make him out to be
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My point is, many GMs thought Risto was worth a 1st round pick. Are they not also using analytics? Is there something wrong with the analytics in general or is there something wrong with the analytics that the Flames are using specifically?
How can the Flames be so adamant that Risto is a bad player, yet multiple teams offered a 1st round pick for him AND he's going to be a UFA too.
Something doesn't add up.
This board is laughing at the deal because we all here think Risto sucks, but that's because we've been fed by the Flames that Risto sucks. Does he suck or are the Flames just wrong and we are wrong for buying what they were selling? It's hard to give the Flames the benefit of doubt when they have been a complete failure in player assessment, the results speak for themselves.
To be fair, look at any of the readily available analytic information. They don't paint a pretty picture.
No teams will interpret those stats differently, and will believe they can improve in a different situation.
My point is, many GMs thought Risto was worth a 1st round pick. Are they not also using analytics? Is there something wrong with the analytics in general or is there something wrong with the analytics that the Flames are using specifically?
How can the Flames be so adamant that Risto is a bad player, yet multiple teams offered a 1st round pick for him AND he's going to be a UFA too.
Something doesn't add up.
This board is laughing at the deal because we all here think Risto sucks, but that's because we've been fed by the Flames that Risto sucks. Does he suck or are the Flames just wrong and we are wrong for buying what they were selling? It's hard to give the Flames the benefit of doubt when they have been a complete failure in player assessment, the results speak for themselves.
What makes you think the Flames think Ristolainen sucks? There have been multiple rumours involving the Flames and Risto over the last couple years. Yes, at one point, people in the organization nixed a trade, but the question is: what was the trade for?
If they nixed a trade for Johnny, that is very different than nixing a trade for a 3rd round pick, for example. The 2nd one suggests they hate the player, but the first one just suggests that they don't think he is worth the cost.
Ristolainen is the very definition of a player that has extremely desirable traits but can't utilize them effectively. I think this trade also illustrates just how poor most NHL gm's are at evaluating talent.
He is huge
He is physical
He is a right handed shot
He is a capable offensive threat
He can log huge minutes
The problem is that he can't defend worth a lick, doesn't utilize his teammates effectively, and generally lacks the ability to process the game at a high level which is absolutely needed given the deployment he has received to date. He is a player that can and likely will find some success when not being relied upon so heavily and catered towards but that's certainly not a player you move the 13th overall pick for especially with one year left on his deal.
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Yes. 100%. There is no way anyone can make up any stat to make Ristolainen look good, unless you want to look at something like blocked shots (which is typically an indicator that you play in your end of the ice).
My guess is most general managers have a very poor understanding of analytics (and I hate the term analytics/advanced stats since they really are not difficult to comprehend).
Either Fletcher made this deal without consulting his analytics team, or the Flyers have no analytics team.
My point is, many GMs thought Risto was worth a 1st round pick. Are they not also using analytics? Is there something wrong with the analytics in general or is there something wrong with the analytics that the Flames are using specifically?
How can the Flames be so adamant that Risto is a bad player, yet multiple teams offered a 1st round pick for him AND he's going to be a UFA too.
Something doesn't add up.
This board is laughing at the deal because we all here think Risto sucks, but that's because we've been fed by the Flames that Risto sucks. Does he suck or are the Flames just wrong and we are wrong for buying what they were selling? It's hard to give the Flames the benefit of doubt when they have been a complete failure in player assessment, the results speak for themselves.
I have to go back to: most of these guys are idiots in objective human IQ terms. Montreal just had a shocking run to the final and one of the reasons being cited is their big, tough D. So, now the herd of goats running NHL teams have again decided that "big=good" and, suddenly "Ristolainen is big and therefore good". Instead of just being what he has always been - overpriced "meh". If you can find an actual smart GM to run your team, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.
