Upcoming Mangiapane contract discussion

[timun]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

^^ $3.5 is way too low if you expect any kind of term.

And that's fair. I had $3.5M x 2 yrs on my mind. A "show me" deal: nothing more, nothing less. If Mangiapane breaks out into that 60-point player people like SuperMatt18 are arguing he already is, then fine, good, throw money at him at that point. If he turns into an 85-point player like Brad Marchand, absolutely the Flames ought to get off their wallets and throw gobs of cash at him.

However, until I see any of that production actually happen, in "raw" numbers as Matt put it, as far as I'm concerned he hasn't earned a big deal and it's <insert your favourite synonym for crazy here, I'm tired of repeating myself> to suggest otherwise.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by timun

And that's fair. I had $3.5M x 2 yrs on my mind. A "show me" deal: nothing more, nothing less. If Mangiapane breaks out into that 60-point player people like SuperMatt18 are arguing he already is, then fine, good, throw money at him at that point. If he turns into an 85-point player like Brad Marchand, absolutely the Flames ought to get off their wallets and throw gobs of cash at him.

However, until I see any of that production actually happen, in "raw" numbers as Matt put it, as far as I'm concerned he hasn't earned a big deal and it's <insert your favourite synonym for crazy here, I'm tired of repeating myself> to suggest otherwise.

Mangiapane just had a show me deal. And he showed at least $4.5-5M numbers, if you look at the league. But if he runs a 60 point season, then he’s probably flying the coop.

[TheScorpion]

A two-year deal basically takes Mangiapane directly to UFA. I'm struggling to imagine any reason why the Flames would be game for that.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by timun

The bolded reinforces my overarching point: you ARE cherry-picking stats, because you are choosing to deem "the seasons are irrelevant", and you put LESS "value in the raw point production". That's what cherry-picking statistics is Matt: choosing to ignore statistics that don't back up your view.

You're looking at raw 5-on-5 statistics, normalizing them to account for time on ice, and pooping out hot takes like "Andrew Mangiapane is basically Brad Marchand less the special teams time". And you are willfully, deliberately ignoring the actual, "raw" results to make this conclusion. It's confirmation bias on your part, so stop bull****ting us all by saying you're NOT doing so: YOU ARE.

Oh, and with respect to "really all people do when they post BS like you just posted is admit their own ignorance"? Typical "advanced stats geek" condescension and arrogance. I know this is going to be painful to hear, but you're not the smartest person in the room.

I didn't ignore the statistics though. Ignoring the statistics would have meant I didn't look at them, or would have left them out of my post entirely. I have very clearly said that Marchand provided good value on special teams in that post, and I showed their total points and points per game where Marchand had a big advantage.

It's not "cherry-picking" to place more value on a specific stat, if so then I could say that you are "cherry-picking" by placing more value on the total stats that include 5v5 and special teams play. They are just different stats that show different things. I'm willing to admit that the total production is what makes Marchand better at that age, but also understand that part of that is because he got more special teams opportunity up to that point of their careers. Whereas you are the one cherry picking stats and saying anything outside of the total production is bad, that anybody who looks at those stats are fools, and are the one ignoring it.

And to me it's not just about this argument. I personally think that 5v5 points are more important to look at than total points because they tend to be a better projector of future performance, where special teams stats can vary more wildly over a players career. To go even one step further about it, I think that primary points at 5v5 are even more important, and once again that's not even just in regards to this argument, that's just my own personal opinion and I've stated that in the past.

Also I stand by the statement that the seasons are irrelevant in this context. If I'm looking at a player over a longer period that takes them up to their 25th birthday then the production in that individual season is irrelevant. The points per game over that period is much more important than the arbitrary endpoints that the seasons create. The seasons help to show the growth over time for a player, and how that player trends YoY but looking at the player over a larger sample holds more value than just saying "Well he never broke 32 points in a season, so he can't have that value", especially when the only data we have is shortened seasons that were shortened out of any control of his own.

My point was, and remains, that at 25 years old, and when looking at 5v5 production, Mangiapane and Marchand had similar 5v5 production up until that point of their careers. And that's a factual statement.

I never said Marchand=Mangiapane. I never said it means that Mangiapane will turn into Marchand, because Marchand's development curve into an NHL star is generally the exception and is somewhat uncommon.

It's just a statement of what we COULD POTENTIALLY have in Mangiapane and why the Flames would potentially be smart to lock him up long term at around $5M instead of looking at short deal that would lead him right to UFA.

And maybe you should take your own advice. I wasn't being condescending or arrogant at all in my initial posts, but maybe you should look back and see who was being condescending and arrogant in the first place.

Originally Posted by timun

You absolutely are cherry-picking complementary stats, I don't care how many 5v5 points per 60 minutes while the blood moon is in Aquarius with Venus ascendent you want to quote: you're trying to paint a picture that Andrew Mangiapane and Brad Marchand are on a similar career track. They're not. Marchand is a categorically better player. He was then, he is now. Sorry to be the bearer of that news, but it's true.

As such any GM with half a brain would never EVER sign Andrew Mangiapane to a contract anywhere near $5M a year, let alone the $6M bandied about earlier, at this point in his career. It's asinine. If he turns into an 85-point-per-year player the calibre of Marchand then great, fine, pay the man. As of yet he's a decent middle-six winger, and you DO NOT SPEND THAT KIND OF MONEY ON THAT KIND OF PLAYER.

Thank **** you fools aren't Flames GM...

You were the one that started dropping these statements, and calling anybody that disagreed with you a fool. Not me.

Honestly you might as well just block me at this point, because I will be doing the same to you. All you've proven to me in this is that you can't look at other viewpoints different than your own and understand that there might be some merit to those numbers. I see no point in continuing to read your posts on this site, or any point in wasting my time having a discussion with somebody who clearly can't have a civil conversation about the Flames.

Originally Posted by timun

Oh, and with respect to "really all people do when they post BS like you just posted is admit their own ignorance"? Typical "advanced stats geek" condescension and arrogance. I know this is going to be painful to hear, but you're not the smartest person in the room.

I know I'm not the smartest person in the room, but I am willing to bet that I am a hell of a lot smarter than you are.

Ohh look I know how to bold my posts too, and my name isn't even Matt BTW.

[The Cobra]

Why is anyone using Marchaud as a comparison for anything, he is the poster boy of outliers?

Calgary should sign Mangiapane to a 4-5 year contract at the cheapest AAV and then let him be someone else’s’ concern.

I would take the risk he becomes Marchaud.


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[timun]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Honestly you might as well just block me at this point, because I will be doing the same to you.

Sure thing, at least we'll have common ground on one thing.

Adios dip****!

[The Cobra]

I wonder if being the best player in a watered down world championship means anything?


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[djsFlames]

4.5 x 5 is about right.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

+1 to this

Anyone who thinks 5v5 Points / 60, especially 5v5 Primary points/60 are "cherry-picked" stats is, quite honestly, ignorant. 5v5 P1/60 is probably the single scoring stat in the NHL that can isolate itself from a lot of context information (of course not all).

Not true, context matters a ton with respect to what kind of icetime you get, who you play with, and who you play against. Not to mention completely ignoring PP time, and there is a good reason why the best players get PP time.

All you need to do is look at the list of 5X5 production and compare it to who the best players are. That correlation is a lot lower than it should be, which speaks volumes.

It's a useful stat, and it is another piece of information, but we need to be careful about how mush weight we give it. And some people definitely give it too much.

[Enoch Root]

I think something in the neighborhood of 6 x $4.75 or $4.85M makes sense.

[dissentowner]

I wonder how much value this raises his stock trade wise? If the Sabres GM really does love Monahan as someone pointed out maybe we could package Mangi with Monahan and other assets to try and land Eichel instead of Tkachuk.

[Strange Brew]

I don't know if a long term deal makes sense from Mangiapane's perspective. His performance seems to be on an upward trajectory and the cap is flat, so not an ideal time to look for term.

He may well be the kind of player who wants to bet on himself. If so, I don't hate that for the Flames since not everyone plays their best under a long term contract.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don't know if a long term deal makes sense from Mangiapane's perspective. His performance seems to be on an upward trajectory and the cap is flat, so not an ideal time to look for term.

He may well be the kind of player who wants to bet on himself. If so, I don't hate that for the Flames since not everyone plays their best under a long term contract.

Ya if I was him I would sign a 2 year deal unless BT overpays. Anything less than 5 and I would seriously be considering saying thanks, but I will take a one or two year deal. The time to get him on a longterm, value contract was two years ago. Add in the fact that escrow will be taking a bigger chunk out over the next couple years, he might as well wait until the summer of 2023 to sign his longterm deal.

You can probably get close to 4 on a two year deal. Not sure when you combine all those factors why he would sign longterm unless it was a decent bump from 4.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I wonder how much value this raises his stock trade wise? If the Sabres GM really does love Monahan as someone pointed out maybe we could package Mangi with Monahan and other assets to try and land Eichel instead of Tkachuk.

To the extent the Buffalo liked Monny, it would have a few years ago. This version of a Monny is quite different. Monny was available last off season and the Buffalo GM didn’t jump then.


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[Goriders]

At this point I’d say a mangiapane for McKinnon and a first would be fair.

Eat bread gets things done.

[red sky]

Originally Posted by Goriders

At this point I’d say a mangiapane for McKinnon and a first would be fair.

Eat bread gets things done.

He certainly rises to the occasion...

[868904]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I wonder how much value this raises his stock trade wise? If the Sabres GM really does love Monahan as someone pointed out maybe we could package Mangi with Monahan and other assets to try and land Eichel instead of Tkachuk.

I think this is a very real possibility.

It’s still a big risk to commit really big dollars and term to Mangiapane. I get all the advanced stats, I get the lack of PP time with the Flames, but this is still a guy who hasn’t topped 40 points.

And he’s dominating in an AHL tournament, a level he already dominated a few seasons ago.

He’s getting great exposure. Or is he? Other than Flames fans, I doubt anyone is even watching.

If all it takes is Mangiapane and Monahan to get Eichel, you do it.

[Heavy Jack]

6 x 4.85 is fine by me, Mangi is a player. He even had the big moment in the only game we showed up in against the Avs that series.

Gaudreau and Mangi extensions need to be a priority this offseason.

[keeper34]

Pull a trade while he has value.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by 868904

I think this is a very real possibility.

It’s still a big risk to commit really big dollars and term to Mangiapane. I get all the advanced stats, I get the lack of PP time with the Flames, but this is still a guy who hasn’t topped 40 points.

And he’s dominating in an AHL tournament, a level he already dominated a few seasons ago.

He’s getting great exposure. Or is he? Other than Flames fans, I doubt anyone is even watching.

If all it takes is Mangiapane and Monahan to get Eichel, you do it.

If Buffalo trades Eichel, they will want a premium asset to headline the trade.

I can’t imagine any viable scenario where those players are the best headliners they will get.


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