[GDT] The 2021 NHL Draft Lottery (5 PM on Sportsnet)

[Calgary4LIfe]

I hate it when I can't quote:


@Top5Records: Yeah, I doubt that they would release it, but I hope it does get released.



@AZhouse - Trading down is smart if you know the one or two kids you want will be available. For instance, do you think that Feaster would have taken Teravainen @ 14 that year? Or do you think he would have taken Jankowski @14? I know I would bet that he would have taken Jankowski based on all we know about us scouting Jankowski. Flames were sure he was their kid, and then they were pretty sure who else was going to take him, and felt the risk to drop down was justified. If they drop down this year (which I actually doubt, given the uncertainty), then it is because they have a few guys they like, much like last draft.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Assuming the Flames stay where they are, would anyone trade the pick for 2 other firsts? (Wild and Blue Jackets each with 2 in the 20s).

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Assuming the Flames stay where they are, would anyone trade the pick for 2 other firsts? (Wild and Blue Jackets each with 2 in the 20s).

Depends.

There is a top 8 (imo, of 4 forwards and 4 D), and then another tier of 8 for me, but not a tier that I absolutely HAVE to draft in.

I don’t do scouting for a living, so they’re obviously not going for my list(s). If our scouts think:

1) the drop off in talent and potential between 12 and 20 isn’t much
And
2) grabbing 2 darts over one makes more sense, I think you do it. If they have a top 20 list where the 20th best player on their list is just as valuable to them as the 12th best, I don’t see why not.

[iloveicedhockey]

I think we can all agree that the most important thing is that we get a stud with the James Neal pick, which is probably higher in the 3rd than they would've thought.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

I think we can all agree that the most important thing is that we get a stud with the James Neal pick, which is probably higher in the 3rd than they would've thought.

Maybe it can be part of an Eichel trade.

[TheIronMaiden]

Is there a statistical significance in outcome for players drafted between 10-32?
I know for a top 10 pick there is meaningful difference, but when does the difference in selection become less meaningful?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Is there a statistical significance in outcome for players drafted between 10-32?
I know for a top 10 pick there is meaningful difference, but when does the difference in selection become less meaningful?

There seems to be a trend looking at the 2009 to 2017 draft that the picks in the 15-20 range have been very good with 16th overall jumping out at me when I had a quick look as the pick that seems to be most successful vs the value of the pick.

2017 - Valimaki
2016 - Chychrun
2015 - Barzal
2014 - Milano
2013 - Zadorov
2012 - T Wilson
2011 - J Armia
2010 - Tarasenko
2009 - Leddy

There seems to be a handful of guys taken 20-31/30 that really jump out but the trend seems to be that 15-20 is the end of higher percent chances of getting a good pick. Lots of years it seems that picks in this range are just as good as 6-10 even. If the Flames don't win the lottery I think it's ok to trade down. But the have a history of trading out of the 15-20 slot for picks past top 20 which has shown to be a mistake some years

[Monahammer]

Here's the thing though; I think a team might overpay to jump from 2 or 3 to 1 to take Power. I personally don't think Power is going to be the be all end all of D men in this draft, but it seems that many scouts do. I would take a nice price from whoever is at 2 or 3 to guarantee them Power and then go home happy with Guenther.

If we are picking 12, I think we really need to hold it until we're up to decide if we're trading down. If someone slides then you run to the podium. If things progress as the melange that they appear, then you consider trading down and picking up extra bullets. But IMO this is actually riskier than what I proposed in trading down from 1 to 2 or 3, in that you are increasingly moving away from selecting a player at the top of your draft list.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Poe969

That makes the least sense but unfortunately is the most probable. I just have a bad feeling the Flames are going to use draft picks in any trades they make and that's so annoying. They shouldn't be trying to build on this roster, they need to build from it.

It would be so Flamish to win a top 2 pick and then trade it away. It just doesn't make sense at all. I mean if you're in the position to make a top 2 pick, you're not 1 or 2 players away from contending lol.

Except Dallas who is close to the same odds as us getting a top 2 pick and was just in the SC final a year ago.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Here's the thing though; I think a team might overpay to jump from 2 or 3 to 1 to take Power. I personally don't think Power is going to be the be all end all of D men in this draft, but it seems that many scouts do. I would take a nice price from whoever is at 2 or 3 to guarantee them Power and then go home happy with Guenther.

If we are picking 12, I think we really need to hold it until we're up to decide if we're trading down. If someone slides then you run to the podium. If things progress as the melange that they appear, then you consider trading down and picking up extra bullets. But IMO this is actually riskier than what I proposed in trading down from 1 to 2 or 3, in that you are increasingly moving away from selecting a player at the top of your draft list.

Depends on the over payment. I still think if we got first pick teams like Detroit or Seattle might take lucic contract to trade up. If we can get something like that done I’m for it

If not we are loaded with wingers. We need high end d or centre’s. I’ll take my chances on power being a star dman than adding to our collection of wingers even if he is a righty

[transplant99]

I don't follow the draft stuff like many here do so Im not familiar with who does what like who and where they should go.... beyond the top guys always talked about anyhow.

But i do know a few guys in the business, (scouting specifically for most), that all do this kind of stuff for a living.

Every year a bit before the draft I do an email blast to them and just ask for a few names that arent talked about a lot that may be real sleepers or interesting to follow.

Generally these names go in 2nd and 3rd rounds. Some even later. So i will do the same this year cause its always fun to see what they say and what happens and even a couple times guys went to the team they work for so I know they were likely fighting for that pick.

What I did do this year already was talk to one of them Im closest too, a couple weeks ago, and just asked in general how he felt this past year went considering many of them saw no more than a handful of games etc and were doing a LOT of stuff off video. He was a bit flummoxed as to how to answer but did say that beyond a solid top 7...it was wide open. Both internally and guys that he talked with outside the organization.

Simply, every year is a crap shoot to different degrees but this season its a crapshoot on steroids. A LOT of guessing will be occurring in every draft room. So its a good year to have a few extra bullets and they dont even need to be higher rounds necessarily.

Its a fascinating draft to be sure as there has never been anything like it. Some guys will get their names called and havent been seen in true competition since they were 16 years old.

Getting near the top is a big advantage at this point moreso than other years.

[dissentowner]

Wow. Did anyone else catch that slip at the end of Tim and friends? After they said after the draft it would be Molson hockey somebody said "Indian beer" as they cut away.

[TheIronMaiden]

Are you sure it wasnt I need a beer?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Are you sure it wasnt I need a beer?

Pretty sure.

[TheScorpion]

I thought they said "Canadian beer."

Just rewound: definitely "Canadian"

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I thought they said "Canadian beer."

I hope so. I really hope I heard that wrong.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I thought they said "Canadian beer."

Just rewound: definitely "Canadian"

Ok, I had a kid screaming here so I misheard. Glad to hear!

[Your Calgary Flames!]

I believe he said “Canadian beer”

[AC]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I thought they said "Canadian beer."

Just rewound: definitely "Canadian"

Yeah that's what I heard too.

Testing positive for Canadian beer.

[Tbull8]

According to NBC multiple teams will be getting franchise players...k