Blow it up!

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

That is actually pretty illuminating. So, should the team have traded down from #4? Maybe there is some merit in this.

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Only with the Captain Hindsight super powers in this case, but in general you might find really good value by trading down from a pick in the 4-10 range.

I found the deep dive I did. Forwards drafted 4OA since 1990 :


Paul Kariya
Nicklas Backstrom
Mitch Marner
Mike Ricci
Andrew Ladd
Evander Kane
Ryan Johansen
Stephen Weiss
Brady Tkachuk

Chad Kilger
Todd Warriner
Nikolai Zherdev
Benoit Pouliot
Sam Bennett
Jesse Puljujarvi

Jason Bonsignore
Alexandre Volchkov
Pavel Brendl

9 hits, 6 meh, 3 busts. It is worth noting that the 7 below average picks other than the italicized were all picked before 2005. The 'hit' rate has been a lot better since then...G Reinhart is the only certain bust since then (Thomas Hickey borderline).

D and G:

Spoiler!

Roberto Luongo
Alex Pietrangelo
Seth Jones

Makar
Byram

Scott Lachance
Bryan Allen
Rostislav Klesla
Joni Pitkanen
Adam Larsson
Thomas Hickey
Griffin Reinhart

TLDR: it's reasonable to expect a top half of the roster player at 4OA, but probably not a franchise player (especially at C).

[Hackey]

Winning the cup is a tough thing to do but if you're not building to have a legit shot then I can understand the frustration as a fan. The Flames rushed a rebuild and will likely peak before they even become elite unless they have some unforeseen good luck out of nowhere. Half ass rebuild has unsurprisingly turned out a half ass contender.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Only with the Captain Hindsight super powers in this case, but in general you might find really good value by trading down from a pick in the 4-10 range.

I found the deep dive I did. Forwards drafted 4OA since 1990 :


Paul Kariya
Nicklas Backstrom
Mitch Marner
Mike Ricci
Andrew Ladd
Evander Kane
Ryan Johansen
Stephen Weiss
Brady Tkachuk

Chad Kilger
Todd Warriner
Nikolai Zherdev
Benoit Pouliot
Sam Bennett
Jesse Puljujarvi

Jason Bonsignore
Alexandre Volchkov
Pavel Brendl

9 hits, 6 meh, 3 busts. It is worth noting that the 7 below average picks other than the italicized were all picked before 2005. The 'hit' rate has been a lot better since then...G Reinhart is the only certain bust since then (Thomas Hickey borderline).

D and G:

Spoiler!

Roberto Luongo
Alex Pietrangelo
Seth Jones

Makar
Byram

Scott Lachance
Bryan Allen
Rostislav Klesla
Joni Pitkanen
Adam Larsson
Thomas Hickey
Griffin Reinhart

TLDR: it's reasonable to expect a top half of the roster player at 4OA, but probably not a franchise player (especially at C).

You have Makar in the "meh" category? Because I think the current Calder winner is a step above any category Bennett is in.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

You have Makar in the "meh" category? Because I think the current Calder winner is a step above any category Bennett is in.

Are you reading this correctly? I see the forwards have been rated, but the defensemen and goalies are only mentioned without comment on the quality of the individual picks.

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[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

If you think I am wrong, then feel free to offer correction.

You may not be wrong from a fan's point of view. However, as you probably know, fans don't run the team.

Murray Edwards does. And he seems to care about one thing only: financial success. (Based on evidence available, anyway.)

From his perspective, the team is fantastically successful. Value has escalated by something like half a billion, team makes money (maybe not in 2020-21).

But by that measure of success - and I believe it is the only one ownership actually cares about, or more changes would have been made at the top - the Flames are "successful". It would be "nice" to win a cup, but they're in business to make money.

I don't agree, and I don't like that measure of success, but there ya go.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

You may not be wrong from a fan's point of view. However, as you probably know, fans don't run the team.



Murray Edwards does. And he seems to care about one thing only: financial success. (Based on evidence available, anyway.)



From his perspective, the team is fantastically successful. Value has escalated by something like half a billion, team makes money (maybe not in 2020-21).



But by that measure of success - and I believe it is the only one ownership actually cares about, or more changes would have been made at the top - the Flames are "successful". It would be "nice" to win a cup, but they're in business to make money.



I don't agree, and I don't like that measure of success, but there ya go.

Do you disagree that the best teams in tbe NHL don't always win the Stanley Cup, and that it takes a huge amount of good fortune to win a championship? That has been my point all along.

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[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Do you disagree that the best teams in tbe NHL don't always win the Stanley Cup, and that it takes a huge amount of good fortune to win a championship? That has been my point all along.

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Nah - that part I totally agree with. Otherwise we'd have been celebrating in 2004.

Just the definition of success depends on the POV.

[Roof-Daddy]

I want the Flames to win a Stanley Cup, but I don't 'expect' them to.

What I expected them to do was build a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. They didn't.

Sometimes you build a legit Cup contender, things don't go your way and you never get the Cup. That's what happened to Doug Wilson in San Jose. They didn't win it all, but they were a legit contender for a loooooong time.

It is true that a well built legit contender isn't a guarantee you'll win a Cup, but you pretty much have to have one to win a Cup. A lot of "under dogs" have deep runs, and lots of one hit wonders have made it to the finals, hell Dallas did it just last season, but it's been a long time since a flash in the pan actually won it all.

Treliving will continue to try to make adjustments without tearing it down in an attempt to make the Flames a contender. In the mean time we can all hope they catch fire at the right time and go on a run and buck the trend.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

You have Makar in the "meh" category? Because I think the current Calder winner is a step above any category Bennett is in.

Nope, more the TBD category (but very likely to join Piet and Jones).

I'd argue that all of the D except G Reinhart (bust) and Hickey (meh-) are/were solid 2/3 D-men, and probably all more valuable to their teams than the 'meh' forwards.

Scott Lachance
Bryan Allen
Rostislav Klesla
Joni Pitkanen
Adam Larsson


Ultimately, I count 7-10 homerun picks in 30 years...so odds a little worse than 1/3.



Here's 6OAs since 1990:

Year Player GP Pts

1991 Peter Forsberg 708 885
1994 Ryan Smyth 1270 842
1992 Cory Stillman 1025 727
2001 Mikko Koivu 1028 709
2000 Scott Hartnell 1249 707
1993 Viktor Kozlov 897 537
2006 Derick Brassard 852 483
2013 Sean Monahan 541 411
2011 Mika Zibanejad 548 384
2016 Matthew Tkachuk 293 235


2007 Sam Gagner 844 459
2003 Milan Michalek 747 446
2002 Scottie Upshall 759 285
2010 Brett Connolly 496 188
1996 Boyd Devereaux 627 179

2015 Pavel Zacha 266 108
2014 Jake Virtanen 279 95


2005 Gilbert Brule 299 95
1998 Rico Fata 230 63
1995 Steve Kelly 149 21
2008 Nikita Filatov 53 14
1997 Daniel Tkaczuk 19 11
1990 Scott Scissons 2 0

6 busts (injuries for several), 5 middle-six F's, and 10 top line players.

MZ, MT, and SM could all conceivably crack that impressive top 5 when all is said and done.

D+G:
2009 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 723 364
2012 Hampus Lindholm 502 193

2004 Al Montoya 168 5 (G)
1999 Brian Finley 4 0 (G)

[David Struch]

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Humiliating. We've seen this movie before.

Time to rebuild. Tre should go for hiring Ward. No idea how you can make the guy your full-time coach after the total fiasco of the playoffs.

Markstrom and Tanev are good signings, but the team culture hasn't changed.

Something's gotta give..

Agreed, why must Calgary continue to learn the hard way, (rookie GM, rookie coach)

I hope the Flames get some decent assets back for these guys but things still look alright for a future line-up in 2022-23.

Noah Hanifin - CLAUSE DETAILS: Player submits a 8 team no trade list.
Mark Giordano - CLAUSE DETAILS: Starting 2020-21, Lists 19 teams he can be traded to
Johnny Gaudreau - CLAUSE DETAILS: Modified NTC: Starting 2021-22, Player submits a 5 team trade list.

Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Dubé - Monahan - Ruzicka
Zary - Backlund - Pelletier
_____ - Emilio Pettersen - _____

Välimäki - Andersson
Mackey - Tanev
_____ - Kinnvall

Markström
_____

[Jiri Hrdina]

Complains about rookie gm and head coach then proposes lineup with 6+ rookies

[Roof-Daddy]

One of the most frustrating things about this season so far is that both the big, key UFA signings have been worth every single penny so far, which includes Markstrom who has filled a massive void, yet this team is still treading water as a whole.

Mangi, Dube, Valimaki have all looked good as young players, Gaudreau has bounced back, Lindholm has been solid as a C, team still toils around average.

Like what in the actual ####?

[Moneyhands23]

The fact that Monahan and Tkachuk are no shows pretty much screws this team completely

I am so ok with trading Monahan, but doubt he brings much in return at this point

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

One of the most frustrating things about this season so far is that both the big, key UFA signings have been worth every single penny so far, which includes Markstrom who has filled a massive void, yet this team is still treading water as a whole.

Mangi, Dube, Valimaki have all looked good as young players, Gaudreau has bounced back, Lindholm has been solid as a C, team still toils around average.

Like what in the actual ####?

Same problems of the core that always existed.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

The fact that Monahan and Tkachuk are no shows pretty much screws this team completely

I am so ok with trading Monahan, but doubt he brings much in return at this point

I agree with this. The Flames need their top 4 forwards going if they want to compete. They do not have the super elite players the Leafs or Oilers have so they need their top 4 forwards playing to levels we have seen before.

[Jordan!]

Flames fans after losing 1 game, since 1980: TRADE EVERYONE

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Complains about rookie gm and head coach then proposes lineup with 6+ rookies

While I don’t necessarily agree with his proposal, he is suggesting a retool/rebuild. Teams that go through that tend to have more rookies breaking the lineup.

You can choose to not have a rookie GM/Coach. Can’t necessarily say the same about players if in a rebuild. You can only play who’s in your system.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Jordan!

Flames fans after losing 1 game, since 1980: TRADE EVERYONE

Team has been past the 1st round of the playoffs 3 times in 32 seasons, maybe we were right?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Same problems of the core that always existed.

Gaudreau and Lindholm have been good.
Backlund has been inconsistent but mostly good.
Gio has taken a step back but as should be expected for his age, plus others at D have stepped up.

The only core guy who's really laying an egg is Tkachuk.

Its cliché to say it's the core.
The problems with this team are systematic, not individual players.

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by Jordan!

Flames fans after losing 1 game, since 1980: TRADE EVERYONE

Yes because outside of last night, this team has been really good.