Well, I don't think the statisticians have helped with this. I heard Nate Silver on CBC leading up to this, and he kept repeating this BS that "a 90% chance of a Biden win means if you did the election 10 times, he would win 9 times out of 10."
That's not correct. Even if there is a multi-verse, we only live in one dimension. There is only one election result. The population for that event is the people who actually voted. When polling, you are taking a sample of the voting population, and that results in sample error. The 9/10 for Biden actually means there's a 10% chance that your sampling didn't capture the true population.
Now in this case, where in back-to-back Presidential elections the sampling error reared its ugly head, you have to ask if maybe they are systematically under-estimating their sampling error.
My guess is that they are. And if they're under-estimating their sampling error, I don't think it's wrong to say they are wrong.
I'm not a fan of going to bat for Punished Nate, he deserves all the general contempt, except sampling error isn't just a number statisticians pull out of their ass, it's based on the Confidence Interval, Standard Deviation and Size of the Sample (relative to population).
You can criticize any poll or analysis for the human fault in sampling methodology/bias in questioning/etc. but the polls themselves are still falling within the sampling error, as they did in 2016.
As we've discussed ad nauseum in this thread and the previous one.
The books in Arizona are being cooked. The last two stacks that have been processed has seen Trump chip away at Biden's lead. The remaining votes require Trump taking 58% of the vote, which is exactly the result of the last stack. What makes me believe the books are cooked, neither of the last two stacks has moved the needle on the Kelly/McSally race. Biden and Kelly's numbers were very consistent before the shenanigans began, but only Biden's numbers have dropped. It does not make sense for Kelly's numbers to not follow Biden's as Trump supporters are NOT going to vote for what is considered a liberal Democrat in Mark Kelly. The numbers should be consistent and when it is not, that is an indicator of manipulated data. Something everyone needs to watch and be aware of.
Ugh... alright let me try another good luck charm:
I'm not a fan of going to bat for Punished Nate, he deserves all the general contempt, except sampling error isn't just a number statisticians pull out of their ass, it's based on the Confidence Interval, Standard Deviation and Size of the Sample (relative to population).
You can criticize any poll or analysis for the human fault in sampling methodology/bias in questioning/etc. but the polls themselves are still falling within the sampling error, as they did in 2016.
As we've discussed ad nauseum in this thread and the previous one.
For President maybe but I think some numbers for House and Senate were really off.
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Where are people grabbing the votes outstanding numbers from? Previously I was using the New York Times' estimates - fine when there are hundreds of thousands or millions left - but would like to be more accurate now we're into the final few per cents.
__________________ "I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?" Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
The books in Arizona are being cooked. The last two stacks that have been processed has seen Trump chip away at Biden's lead. The remaining votes require Trump taking 58% of the vote, which is exactly the result of the last stack. What makes me believe the books are cooked, neither of the last two stacks has moved the needle on the Kelly/McSally race. Biden and Kelly's numbers were very consistent before the shenanigans began, but only Biden's numbers have dropped. It does not make sense for Kelly's numbers to not follow Biden's as Trump supporters are NOT going to vote for what is considered a liberal Democrat in Mark Kelly. The numbers should be consistent and when it is not, that is an indicator of manipulated data. Something everyone needs to watch and be aware of.
How do the total # of votes between the senate & presidential ballots look? Like are the numbers similar but people are "voting" for Trump and Kelly? Or are Biden votes potentially being tossed out?
Were any of those from B or greater rated pollsters?
My 12 year old daughter, as part of her social studies, had to predict a winner in each of the 50 states. She is 45/45 so far. They all should have just asked her, apparently.
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How do the total # of votes between the senate & presidential ballots look? Like are the numbers similar but people are "voting" for Trump and Kelly? Or are Biden votes potentially being tossed out?
I can't imagine a Trump/Kelly ballot even exists. Who would do that? More likely a Biden/McSally exists so I agree this is very fishy.
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Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
My 12 year old daughter, as part of her social studies, had to predict a winner in each of the 50 states. She is 45/45 so far. They all should have just asked her, apparently.
My 12 year old daughter, as part of her social studies, had to predict a winner in each of the 50 states. She is 45/45 so far. They all should have just asked her, apparently.
well... what were her predictions for AZ, NV, PA, GA, and NC?
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My 12 year old daughter, as part of her social studies, had to predict a winner in each of the 50 states. She is 45/45 so far. They all should have just asked her, apparently.
What does she say for the last 5? Help us skip this vote-watching nonsense.
My 12 year old daughter, as part of her social studies, had to predict a winner in each of the 50 states. She is 45/45 so far. They all should have just asked her, apparently.
What's her prediction for Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania?
