[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

And I don't think you have any supporting evidence to make that claim. We're both speculating here.



Again, so far, it looks like those numbers were higher for Trump this time than last time, so why is that?

Latinos are highly religious and pro family.

[Flamenspiel]

Well, the stock market is up, so that’s good news.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Is the USPS actually withholding them or are they just lost in the ether? Or is it a situation where USPS has possession of them but hasn't delivered them to the vote counters?

If it's the latter case, I'm surprised they can so precisely provide numbers of how many they have. Just... deliver them.

I think it's that they have them, and aren't delivered yet, if ever... This could easily be tracked as they would have been scanned entering the system, but never have a delivery scan. In which case if they have an entry scan, they should be considered valid, as the vote was placed before the end of the election. In a logical world, anyway.

[flylock shox]

Some bright spots this morning:


- the US election itself was not marred by voter intimidation and violence at the polls, which it well might have been given Trump's rhetoric;


- the states appear to be doing a thoroughly professional and non-partisan job in actually counting and tabulating the ballots, and the election commissioners who have spoken publicly to date (Georgia, Wisconsin) inspire confidence in the process;



- there has yet to be any response from his supporters to Trump's late-night whining about a stolen election, and the votes continue to be counted;


- Biden appears on track to win, even if it is my astoundingly low margins across a handful of states (effectively duplicating but reversing Trump's margin of victory in 2016);


- Fox News has not fomented outrage (yet) and might even be credited with taking the wind out of Trump's whiny sails when it comes to allegations of cheating;



- Pennsylvania, although brutally slow in its counting/reporting, may not be essential to a Biden victory.



The negatives to this point are obvious and numerous, but it's not all bad. The machinery of American democracy appears to be functioning better than might have been expected. Soon we'll see if the court system is still working too.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by you&me

For example, could Trump drag out the legal cases for, say 2 years and even in the case of a loss, effectively limit Biden's term to 2 years?

Nah. If there's one thing the Court has consistently expressed, it's the need for timely decisions on election issues. If this does make it to the SCC, it'll get there very quickly, and will be resolved probably within a month. Someone's going to be President next January.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by 3thirty

Is the Arizona swing likely due to the massive amounts of Californians that have moved in recent years or an actual change of heart?

A little bit of that. There's a lot of migration from everywhere including a lot of states from the east and mid-west that are traditionally Democrat. Illinois has seen a lot of people migrate to Arizona for example. Same with Wisconsin. You also have to take into consideration the change in demographics. Arizona is getting more brown, and the older white population is dying off. All of these things add up.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by nik-

I'll ask you this, do you think the higher Mexican votes for Trump, the right wing racist, are higher because Biden wasn't left enough? Because that makes literally no sense. Or perhaps is it because attacking the left wing boogeyman still works?

I think incumbency plays a huge role, especially when you run a campaign that offers nothing new or substantive and is essentially "we're not the other guy!"

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I do find it hilarious that Democrats went for the "courting moderate" Republicans strategy again, and again it looks like it burned them. They'll win the White House but how they can't seem to understand that that strategy is inherently useless to them is beyond me.

Is driving turnout even higher in California, Massachusetts, and New York a better strategy?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Is the USPS actually withholding them or are they just lost in the ether? Or is it a situation where USPS has possession of them but hasn't delivered them to the vote counters?

If it's the latter case, I'm surprised they can so precisely provide numbers of how many they have. Just... deliver them.

My understanding: Because of the way that the USPS handles ballots, they get scanned when they enter the USPS system. So these are 300,000 or so ballots that have been scanned as received by USPS, but have not been delivered, and unusually clustered around Democratic strongholds in swing states. The normal process is for the USPS to do sweeps to locate such ballots in their system, but they've pushed back on doing those sweeps the past week.

For states that require votes to be received by election day, there's no recourse at this point. But in some states, votes can be received for several more days (including North Carolina, where they can be received up until the 12th), as long as they're postmarked by election day. So we could have a scenario where the fate of the presidency (or the senate) hangs on whether USPS can avoid finding these ballots.

[Flashpoint]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Is the USPS actually withholding them or are they just lost in the ether? Or is it a situation where USPS has possession of them but hasn't delivered them to the vote counters?

If it's the latter case, I'm surprised they can so precisely provide numbers of how many they have. Just... deliver them.

Many states don't allow votes to be counted that arrive after election day. Some do if they are postmarked before election day, but even in the case of PENN, they are being "segregated" by court order. The GOP hoping they will be thrown out (hence Trump harping about "found" ballots).

It's most likely a lost cause for those ballots. Hopefully once AZ, NM, WI, and MI are tallied for Biden, PENN won't matter.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

I really believe that you need to be doing community building early.

Find candidates and campaign teams that are from the area you are courting. Have them build relationships building up to an election. Don't talk politics, don't campaign, just build friendships, partnerships and help the community grow.

Then when nomination time comes, put forth those with roots in the community forward. Spend the actual election campaign identifying and solidifying support for the individual.

That's how you win in "traditional" areas. I'm not voting Democrat I'm voting for Joe Smith. Then Joe Smith is there for a while, steps aside, puts his arm around the next guy and voila it's now a Democrat stronghold. (You can replace Democrat with party of choice).

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

Latinos are highly religious and pro family.

They also tend to lean more left on economic issues, especially when you get out of Florida.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Azure

Voter turnout despite COVID is encouraging.

Makes you wonder how much a good early voting system would increase voter turnout in Canada as well.

We have 4 days of advanced voting?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by you&me

Out of curiosity, is anything in place to either ensure an expedient process to the legal challenge and / or change the election date?

For example, could Trump drag out the legal cases for, say 2 years and even in the case of a loss, effectively limit Biden's term to 2 years?

I think this would be a priority case. I doubt it would not be heard immediately and then ushered trough to the Supremes PDQ. I would say wouldn't take more than four to six months if they go this way. I hope to god they don't, but Trump is a man baby with a propensity to sue something if it moves.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

I really believe that you need to be doing community building early.

Find candidates and campaign teams that are from the area you are courting. Have them build relationships building up to an election. Don't talk politics, don't campaign, just build friendships, partnerships and help the community grow.

Then when nomination time comes, put forth those with roots in the community forward. Spend the actual election campaign identifying and solidifying support for the individual.

That's how you win in "traditional" areas. I'm not voting Democrat I'm voting for Joe Smith. Then Joe Smith is there for a while, steps aside, puts his arm around the next guy and voila it's now a Democrat stronghold. (You can replace Democrat with party of choice).

Yes this is what Republicans do, that's how they get the small town areas. Well, before crazy Trumpism.


But now with demographics shifting to cities, I'm not sure the community roots thing works anymore. Urban and suburban is more busy.

[Matty81]

At least according to twitter, Wisconsin is done... just 300 votes outstanding. Going to be called shortly. Trump saying he will demand a recount but margin of 21k is probably too much to overturn. Think that one will probably go in the Biden column and stay there. Second flipped state if Arizona holds.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

And it isn't an original idea either. The mail in delay plus Trump screaming fraud has been floated for months now by dozens of publications and political experts.

Michael Moore was talking about the exact same possible situation several weeks ago in fact.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Some bright spots this morning:


- the US election itself was not marred by voter intimidation and violence at the polls, which it well might have been given Trump's rhetoric;


- the states appear to be doing a thoroughly professional and non-partisan job in actually counting and tabulating the ballots, and the election commissioners who have spoken publicly to date (Georgia, Wisconsin) inspire confidence in the process;



- there has yet to be any response from his supporters to Trump's late-night whining about a stolen election, and the votes continue to be counted;


- Biden appears on track to win, even if it is my astoundingly low margins across a handful of states (effectively duplicating but reversing Trump's margin of victory in 2016);


- Fox News has not fomented outrage (yet) and might even be credited with taking the wind out of Trump's whiny sails when it comes to allegations of cheating;



- Pennsylvania, although brutally slow in its counting/reporting, may not be essential to a Biden victory.



The negatives to this point are obvious and numerous, but it's not all bad. The machinery of American democracy appears to be functioning better than might have been expected. Soon we'll see if the court system is still working too.

I find it quite depressing that the survival of these basic democratic norms are considered "bright spots" these days. I think it shows how far things have already fallen. But yes, I'm glad that we've so far avoided the worst-case-scenarios which some predicted.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Biden now up about 44,000 votes in Michigan.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Some bright spots this morning:


- the US election itself was not marred by voter intimidation and violence at the polls, which it well might have been given Trump's rhetoric;


- the states appear to be doing a thoroughly professional and non-partisan job in actually counting and tabulating the ballots, and the election commissioners who have spoken publicly to date (Georgia, Wisconsin) inspire confidence in the process;



- there has yet to be any response from his supporters to Trump's late-night whining about a stolen election, and the votes continue to be counted;


- Biden appears on track to win, even if it is my astoundingly low margins across a handful of states (effectively duplicating but reversing Trump's margin of victory in 2016);


- Fox News has not fomented outrage (yet) and might even be credited with taking the wind out of Trump's whiny sails when it comes to allegations of cheating;



- Pennsylvania, although brutally slow in its counting/reporting, may not be essential to a Biden victory.



The negatives to this point are obvious and numerous, but it's not all bad. The machinery of American democracy appears to be functioning better than might have been expected. Soon we'll see if the court system is still working too.

Good post. Love the optimism. But I had a hearty chuckle at the bolded.

This election is way too close IMO and that says volumes about how the US system is broken, and their country as a whole.