[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[kirant]

Originally Posted by united

Updating this recognizing things are moving fast. Added Nevada and Arizona.

Here's another data point for Georgia:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324029565732327426

[Enoch Root]

Pa now 493K (75%)

moving at a glacial pace

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

If McConnell has 52-53 Senators, as appears likely, I think any significant legislation on health care, the environment, immigration or court reform is DOA until 2023 — regardless of whether the Dems had any intent to follow through on the those parts of their campaign platform.

My bigger concern is that McConnell outmaneuvers Biden on economic relief and gets Biden to agree to crippling longterm austerity measures in exchange for short term stimulus. After all, the deficit only seems to matter when Dems are in the White House.

That's probably true. For the first two years that the Dems are the minority in the Senate they'll have to focus on governing by (reversing) executive order and the professional administration of the federal departments by those that aren't cronies and robber barons.

Hopefully, they can get a couple more Senate seats in 22 and get some real legislation passed.

[3thirty]

and betting sites slowly creeping more towards Trump again...ugh

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by GGG

Counting the Nevada mail in ballots remaining as solidly blue also may not be correct as Nevada sends everyone a mail in ballot so it will be less skewed than in other states.

It'll still be in the Democrats favor. FYI if folk are interested in Nevada elections Jon Ralston is a good source: https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...-voting-blog-3

[photon]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

There is zero chance we see, if it does end up that close, faithless electors.

Right???

SCOTUS ruled that states can pass a law that requires electors to vote for who they promised to vote for when they were nominated.

Which may or may not be helpful.. if Biden wins PA but an elector doesn't cast their vote for Biden does a Republican Congress pass such a law?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Acey

lol k

This is exactly what Trump said he was going to do. If it was close he was going to use the courts to try and win. Like it or not the courts are stacked in his favor. Given a chance to rule in his favor, they will. The important thing is the Democrats and their lawyers must have a better argument. Not sure that is a given at this time. So, if this is the strategy that Trump elects and there is every indication he will pursue this, until the court cases are settled Donald J. Trump will continue to be POTUS.

Originally Posted by krynski

Pennsylvania is a big one to look out for. There is about a ~500,000 difference between Biden & Trump. There are approx. 1.5 million outstanding ballots.

From early voting numbers, numbers are coming back at 78% Biden (source from ABC news). If that's the case, 3,034,722 for Trump becomes 3,364,722 for Trump, and 2,522,086 for Biden becomes 3,692,086. That could end up 47.7% Trump, 52.3% Biden.

Maybe 78% is too high to shoot for, but it could be that there more than 1.5 million votes to be counted. Anyway, Pennsylvania is still in the game for Biden.

Hey, I'm hopeful too, but you have to look at the county trends and take them into consideration. Those make the math for Biden pretty impossible. Unless those ballots are all being lumped into one monolithic group, and not as part of the originating county (which they should), the math still is what it is. I hope to be wrong. I would love Pennsylvania to push it way over the top and have Trump wincing. But I don't see the math being there.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by GGG

Huge polling miss for Wisconsin.

The 538 average was 8.3% and ended with a sub 1% win.

That makes Pennsylvania more interesting. Michigan by 8% and Nevada by 6% are also in the sub 1% range. It will be interesting to see final overall numbers.

Yeah, somehow in some places the polls are actually more wrong than in 2016. Obviously these numbers can change as the last few ballots are counted, but as of right now here's the margin between Trump's 538 estimate vs the election results:

Florida 2016: Trump +1.8
Florida 2020: Trump +5.9

Wisconsin 2016: Trump +6.1
Wisconsin 2020: Trump +7.6

Michigan 2016: Trump +4.2
Michigan 2020: Trump +7.4

Ohio 2016: Trump +6.2
Ohio 2020: Trump +7.6

Now chances are some of those 2020 margins will narrow with more mail-in ballots counted, but still it doesn't look great for pollsters.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by 3thirty

and betting sites slowly creeping more towards Trump again...ugh

I don't know. They seem pretty steady at 4 or 5 to 1. How and when do they pay out? Inauguration day? I would guess some bettors are betting on some court trickery.

[EldrickOnIce]

I'm bringing this up again. I would like an answer to this, if anyone has a clue. Is this a real possibility?

Sorry, missed photon reply above.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector

[Acey]

Originally Posted by New Era

This is exactly what Trump said he was going to do. If it was close he was going to use the courts to try and win.

Sure. But I sure as hell am not phrasing it in some way that suggests that a 270-268 result is a definitive continuation of a Trump presidency. That's a massive reach with zero evidence.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by 3thirty

and betting sites slowly creeping more towards Trump again...ugh

The one I placed some bets on has Trump at the worst odds they've had him since Monday

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by New Era

This is exactly what Trump said he was going to do. If it was close he was going to use the courts to try and win. Like it or not the courts are stacked in his favor. Given a chance to rule in his favor, they will. The important thing is the Democrats and their lawyers must have a better argument. Not sure that is a given at this time. So, if this is the strategy that Trump elects and there is every indication he will pursue this, until the court cases are settled Donald J. Trump will continue to be POTUS.



Hey, I'm hopeful too, but you have to look at the county trends and take them into consideration. Those make the math for Biden pretty impossible. Unless those ballots are all being lumped into one monolithic group, and not as part of the originating county (which they should), the math still is what it is. I hope to be wrong. I would love Pennsylvania to push it way over the top and have Trump wincing. But I don't see the math being there.

What will they argue if it’s 270-268 and Biden didn’t rely on late arriving votes?

[dino7c]

If Biden wins without PA which looks likely GL fighting it...Trump the clown already showed his hand

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by edslunch

what will they argue if it’s 270-268 and biden didn’t rely on late arriving votes?

only count the legal votes!

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Acey

Sure. But I sure as hell am not phrasing it in some way that suggests that a 270-268 result is a definitive continuation of a Trump presidency. That's a massive reach with zero evidence.

Donald Trump will remain president until his term is officially ended by processes outlined in the constitution of the United States. Any contest that is challenged in court leaves the incumbent in place and representative of their office until those challenges are completed. So a contested 270-268 election will leave the winner in the wings waiting for the court decision. Ask Al Franken about his first term as a senator. He had to wait until July (seven months) before he was able to take his seat because of the legal challenge. This is real, so please don't be so dismissive about something that Trump has stated he will use if he has to.

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I'm bringing this up again. I would like an answer to this, if anyone has a clue. Is this a real possibility?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector

Faithless electors are a possibility as most states do not have penalties associated with not complying with the non-compliance with the expectations of their duties. The states that could be troublesome are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin IMO, so this could be a strategy the Republicans follow through on as well. Again, this was mentioned as part of their nuclear strategy, so we'll have to see how much bite the Republicans are willing to use with all the barking they did prior to the election.

[MarchHare]

Regarding Supreme Court shenanigans that could over-turn a legitimate Biden win, there are only three scenarios where that could happen:

1. Trump is losing in a tipping-point state but might win if a recount went his way. SC forces recount with partisan rules that favour Trump.
2. Trump is winning in a tipping-point state but a recount might flip the result. SC blocks recount.
3. Trump is winning in a tipping-point but mail-in Biden ballots might flip the result. SC disenfranchises Biden supporters who voted by mail.

Assuming Biden holds all of MI/WI/NV/AZ based on current counts, the election result should be sufficiently non-ambiguous that none of the above three scenarios will materialize.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by photon

SCOTUS ruled that states can pass a law that requires electors to vote for who they promised to vote for when they were nominated.

Which may or may not be helpful.. if Biden wins PA but an elector doesn't cast their vote for Biden does a Republican Congress pass such a law?

What an incredibly bizarre electoral system

[Looch City]

Per CNN live updates:

The Trump campaign is desperately fundraising the day after the election for resources to wage legal battles against election results, something he highlighted as he sowed doubt in election results over the past few months.

The campaign has sent out six emails to supporters since midnight asking for money. Each of the solicitations has included the false claim that Democrats are trying to “steal” the election.

There is no evidence of nefarious activity surrounding the election count.

At a rally in Kenosha, Wisconsin, on the eve of Election Day, Trump said campaign lawyers “will be going in and they’ll be fighting.”

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I'm bringing this up again. I would like an answer to this, if anyone has a clue. Is this a real possibility?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector

If I'm doing the math right (which I may not be) then there are 131 potential electors pledged to Biden that may vote however they darn well please.

If Biden finishes with 270 pledged votes, and just one of those is faithless (assuming no Trump pledges vote Biden) then there is a contingency election in the House of Representatives whereby every state gets 1 vote. However is first past the post of the top 3 electoral college vote getters becomes President of the United States of America.

This means, a Californian elector could vote Colin Powell as President, assuming no other faithless electors, then have the House of Representatives elect Colin Powell as President even though no one voted for him in the general election, and he received only 1 electoral college vote.

EDIT: The site I was on only listed states that have laws against faithless electors. Some states make being a faithless elector illegal but still count the vote as cast, and may not have any penalty, which raises the question why even pass a law if it doesn't change anything?