American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The impeachment trials were stupid...why start a fight that you will lose no matter what?

That being said Biden is gonna win...people get crazy right before the election but if you look at any of the real data Biden is going to win and it won't even be close

I really hope you're right. In fact it's safe to say that the entire free world hopes you're right. However, I'm not gonna celebrate until it's officially announced that Biden has won and Trump is dragged from the White House kicking and screaming.

There are just too many shady GOP shenanigans going on right now to be confident in anything involving the electoral college. If it's looking like a landslide for Biden towards the end of the night on Tuesday, then maybe I'll start getting excited. Until then I'm just gonna pray to Jobu and hope for the best.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Well, we'll see. So far, they won in Wisconsin and lost in Pennsylvania, but that was in the context of Amy Coney Barrett recusing herself because, in her view, she hadn't had time to familiarize herself with the matter. If, on Tuesday or Wednesday, the Supreme Court is asked to rule about whether ballot counting in these states should be stopped - and note that Pennsylvania won't be substantially finished counting until Friday - the landscape could very easily shift. And that is very concerning.

It’s hard to see how the justify doing that after the deadline when they declined to stop people voting with the belief that they had three days grace. Of course they’ll just say it’s the law as written and technically be correct meanwhile having done as much damage as they could.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

and some guys want to retire the 14..... barf

His political views have nothing whatsoever to do with what he accomplished for the Calgary Flames. Should the Bruins rip #4 down from the rafters? Come on..

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Well, we'll see. So far, they won in Wisconsin and lost in Pennsylvania, but that was in the context of Amy Coney Barrett recusing herself because, in her view, she hadn't had time to familiarize herself with the matter. If, on Tuesday or Wednesday, the Supreme Court is asked to rule about whether ballot counting in these states should be stopped - and note that Pennsylvania won't be substantially finished counting until Friday - the landscape could very easily shift. And that is very concerning.

I could be proven wrong but I think again, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett are conservative judges but I don't think they're thieves and cheats. Kavanaugh quickly corrected his Vermont piece today.


And even if they were, to cheat for Donald Trump? That would be insane.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Trump doesn't even have to lose in a landslide...just for it to be obvious by the end of the night...and considering he basically needs to win every tossup we will likely know by the end of the night all the late ballots are just salt in the wounds

I hope that is what happens and yet I have zero doubt Trump will cry about illegal ballots and fraud and refuse to concede or accept the results no matter how badly he loses.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

His political views have nothing whatsoever to do with what he accomplished for the Calgary Flames. Should the Bruins rip #4 down from the rafters? Come on..

If the Flames wanted it, he would have been there a decade ago.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

People are missing the point.

The issue is not whether or not Biden will win, or whether it will be close. The issue is whether he will be winning based on the votes counted on election day. There is no indication that he will be. Republicans will be largely voting in person. Democrats have largely voted by mail. In many states, those mail-in ballots will not be finished being counted until Wednesday, Thursday or even Friday (in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania).

I see two potential scenarios.

First, on election night, Trump is leading in vote count in enough states to get him to 270, but analysts for the non-Fox news channels rely on sound analytical models of what the makeup of the outstanding mail-in ballots are likely to be once they're all counted, and declare Biden the winner of the election despite him trailing in most states in terms of votes actually counted up to that point. This could result in Trump declaring victory and accusing the media of lying and trying to steal the election, and in turn trying to throw out any remaining mail in ballots on the basis that they shouldn't count after election day.

Second, those news channels are more conservative in their projections, and simply note that all of the states in which significant mail-in ballots are outstanding and where Trump is leading but could realistically be overtaken once the mail-in ballots are counted are "too early to call". Again, if this happens, Trump could declare victory on the basis that, as he has said previously, "whoever gets the most votes on election day should be the winner", and tries to stop any further counting of ballots.

I do not see any realistic third scenario. Those are the only two likely outcomes, it seems to me, and they both lead to Trump and company doing the same sorts of things. The key point is that on election day, it is highly unlikely that enough Biden votes will have been counted for it to be clear that he has the election won. The only way to draw that conclusion will be through the use of analytics. As my username would attest, I'm keenly familiar with the tendency of intellectually mediocre people to be suspicious of, and reject, that sort of modeling, and it wouldn't be a hard sale for Trump to make to a large swath of the American public. I would definitely not put it past him to try it.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I could be proven wrong but I think again, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett are conservative judges but I don't think they're thieves and cheats. Kavanaugh quickly corrected his Vermont piece today.

I suppose we'll see, but I'm concerned that it could even get to a point where a SCOTUS that is packed with Trump appointed judges could decide the thing. I am not as confident as you seem to be about the result.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

If the Flames wanted it, he would have been there a decade ago.

It should and will happen. It should have already been done.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Normally I would agree with this, but the Covid pandemic has made this a unique election. If someone has requested a mail-in ballot, it generally means that the person will not be making a trip to the voting booth...

You can hand deliver a mail in ballot...put it right in the box

If the US blows this again they are done and they deserve what they get. Pretty hard to excuse not voting or voting on time in an election this serious. I hear the black vote is higher than 2016 but still not at Obama levels...FFS sometimes I wonder why I care so much.

All that said Biden is winning

Trump beat Hillary by the slimmest of margins. Biden is out polling Hillary even with pollsters being incredibly cautious this time. 3rd party voting and people sitting out because Trump can't win is also way less.

Nate Silver had Trump at 30% last time and this time he has him at 10% which is basically as low as he would ever go on anyone.

Relax guys...turnout is high and high turnout=Trump loss

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

People are missing the point.

The issue is not whether or not Biden will win, or whether it will be close. The issue is whether he will be winning based on the votes counted on election day. There is no indication that he will be. Republicans will be largely voting in person. Democrats have largely voted by mail. In many states, those mail-in ballots will not be finished being counted until Wednesday, Thursday or even Friday (in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania).

I see two potential scenarios.

First, on election night, Trump is leading in vote count in enough states to get him to 270, but analysts for the non-Fox news channels rely on sound analytical models of what the makeup of the outstanding mail-in ballots are likely to be once they're all counted, and declare Biden the winner of the election despite him trailing in most states in terms of votes actually counted up to that point. This could result in Trump declaring victory and accusing the media of lying and trying to steal the election, and in turn trying to throw out any remaining mail in ballots on the basis that they shouldn't count after election day.

Second, those news channels are more conservative in their projections, and simply note that all of the states in which significant mail-in ballots are outstanding and where Trump is leading but could realistically be overtaken once the mail-in ballots are counted are "too early to call". Again, if this happens, Trump could declare victory on the basis that, as he has said previously, "whoever gets the most votes on election day should be the winner", and tries to stop any further counting of ballots.

I do not see any realistic third scenario. Those are the only two likely outcomes, it seems to me, and they both lead to Trump and company doing the same sorts of things. The key point is that on election day, it is highly unlikely that enough Biden votes will have been counted for it to be clear that he has the election won. The only way to draw that conclusion will be through the use of analytics. As my username would attest, I'm keenly familiar with the tendency of intellectually mediocre people to be suspicious of, and reject, that sort of modeling, and it wouldn't be a hard sale for Trump to make to a large swath of the American public. I would definitely not put it past him to try it.

Mail in ballots are counted on election day...even before election day in some states. The only ballots not counted on election day will be the ones that don't arrive until after election day. The vast majority of votes will be counted on election day.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Mail in ballots are counted on election day...even before election day in some states. The only ballots not counted on election day will be the ones that don't arrive until after election day. The vast majority of votes will be counted on election day.

This is not true.

In many states, like Florida and Ohio, mail in ballots are counted before election day. In a few, they're counted on election day, beginning at a specified time, or when the polls open. In others, they are counted starting only when the polls close (i.e., at 8 p.m.).

In cases where mail in ballots can't start to be counted until election day, especially in the case where they don't start counting until the polls close, the counting of mail in votes won't be finished until far later, regardless of when they're received.

So we may know the outcome in Florida on election night. That outcome might be used to predict the makeup of mail-in ballots that have yet to be counted in other states, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, and on that basis a reasonable prediction could be made about who will win those states that is reliable enough to cause, say, CNN to call the election. But votes in those states won't be anywhere near finished being counted.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Mail in ballots are counted on election day...even before election day in some states. The only ballots not counted on election day will be the ones that don't arrive until after election day. The vast majority of votes will be counted on election day.

The details:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-counted.html

[dino7c]

The vast majority of votes will be counted on election day/night

If its a large win Biden will certainly be in the lead at the end of the night and its over

[calgaryred]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

The details:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-counted.html

Then it makes more sense Pennsylvania would be the state that could determine Trumps fate, if they count on election day and days after. If Florida counts before election day the numbers should be pretty much all there for Nov 3rd.

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[Patek23]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

It should and will happen. It should have already been done.

LOL and who do you think the owners of this team would vote for Johnny?

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by calgaryred

Then it makes more sense Pennsylvania would be the state that could determine Trumps fate, if they count on election day and days after. If Florida counts before election day the numbers should be pretty much all there for Nov 3rd.

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Pennsylvania is a good gauge of whether it's an easy Biden win or not. But it's not that likely to be the one deciding state. If we're waiting on that one, then the election will be way closer than projected.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

It should and will happen. It should have already been done.

This kind of stuff is exactly why they keep delaying the inevitable though. The event involves him giving a speech, I honestly think that’s 95% of it right there.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by edslunch

It’s hard to see how the justify doing that after the deadline when they declined to stop people voting with the belief that they had three days grace. Of course they’ll just say it’s the law as written and technically be correct meanwhile having done as much damage as they could.

They've literally said that they'd be open to doing so, in Pennsylvania.

Typically, rulings issued before Election Day do not change afterward. But just yesterday, Justice Alito, joined by Justices Thomas and Gorsuch, penned an opinion openly inviting interested parties to come back to the court after Election Day to prevent Pennsylvania from counting late-arriving ballots, despite the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s ruling that the state constitution requires those ballots to count, and despite the fact that the U.S. Supreme Court twice denied pre-election motions to block those ballots from being counted. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar, for her part, has agreed to segregate those ballots in the event they are disputed after the votes are cast. So the short answer is yes, there is reason to think that the Supreme Court’s ruling with respect to those ballots could change.

See: https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinion...0-542_i3dj.pdf

Originally Posted by dino7c

The vast majority of votes will be counted on election day/night

If its a large win Biden will certainly be in the lead at the end of the night and its over

I think the issue is that we're disagreeing about the meaning of the phrase "vast majority" in this context, and the likelihood of it being a large enough Biden win. I just don't think it's at all likely to be that big a blowout, state by state.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

This kind of stuff is exactly why they keep delaying the inevitable though. The event involves him giving a speech, I honestly think that’s 95% of it right there.

So because he has far right political views he shouldn't have his number raised? That not only seems petty given his legacy as a Flame but it is discriminatory as well. I totally disagree with his political views but do you think he is going to talk politics during his speech? I don't see that.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

They've literally said that they'd be open to doing so, in Pennsylvania.



See: https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinion...0-542_i3dj.pdf


I think the issue is that we're disagreeing about the meaning of the phrase "vast majority" in this context, and the likelihood of it being a large enough Biden win. I just don't think it's at all likely to be that big a blowout, state by state.

This election is unprecedented and will be really hard to try to analyze election day voting vs early voting vs mail in voting vs drop box voting. I suspect the last 3 categories will be the majority of votes in most states this election. I don't know which of those categories get counted as mail ballots, and imagine it varies a lot by state. Every republican I know here has already voted one way or the other including the reddest necked Trump supporters I know. So I'm not sure the split between the early voting/election day voting is a partisan as you're suggesting.