2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You would think a player that gets traded for a 1st and two 2nd round picks would be of high pedigree but it's telling that he doesn't crack the top 10 of any 2020 UFA ranking lists I've seen.

Hamonic was terrible this year for us. I seriously don’t think him opting out even had an impact on our team and that’s with Forbort as the replacement

It’s a massive buyer beware. Hope the Leafs or the Oilers give him a big deal, but it’s probably going to be the Jets

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You would think a player that gets traded for a 1st and two 2nd round picks would be of high pedigree but it's telling that he doesn't crack the top 10 of any 2020 UFA ranking lists I've seen. IMO there's no defending of the trade as the day it was made it appeared to be an overpayment and today it looks even worse than we thought given his mediocre play over his Flames tenure.

The day of the trade I saw plenty of reporters and pundits thinking it was a win.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You would think a player that gets traded for a 1st and two 2nd round picks would be of high pedigree but it's telling that he doesn't crack the top 10 of any 2020 UFA ranking lists I've seen. IMO there's no defending of the trade as the day it was made it appeared to be an overpayment and it turned out to be even worse than we thought given his mediocre play.

It was the perfect trade for the Islanders. Hamonic was coming off a poor, injury
riddled season but due to multiple teams showing interest Snow was able to get the price he wanted. Treliving probably felt the pick would be in the 20’s and pulled the trigger.

Having said that the Flames would have been without a pick this year in the 2nd round as the Smith trade would have converted from a 3rd to a 2nd and the Flames would still be paying for Hamonic this year.

[Dajazz]

I think hiring a coach that would play to the team’s strength would be a better option.
Oh... Wait...

This roster needs puck retrievers since Ward is staying. It needs heavy players that can cycle the puck. Chip and chase with Johnny & Co isn’t going to work.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

It was the perfect trade for the Islanders. Hamonic was coming off a poor, injury
riddled season but due to multiple teams showing interest Snow was able to get the price he wanted. Treliving probably felt the pick would be in the 20’s and pulled the trigger.

Having said that the Flames would have been without a pick this year in the 2nd round as the Smith trade would have converted from a 3rd to a 2nd and the Flames would still be paying for Hamonic this year.

Treliving throws around his 2nd rounders like Darryl in his prime

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I thought this was obvious, but this doesn't take the number of years into account though.

Kuemper has two years. Markstrom could have 5 or 6.

$2 mill for an extra 4 years is 8 mill. And that's worth a first. Especially with a flat cap. It might even be worth two firsts. Markstrom would also be very likely to regress throughout the contract.

But it isn't $2M for an extra 4 years. It is $1-2M for 2 years. Then you have to re-sign Kuemper.

1) if you don't re-sign him, it was a complete waste of a 1st
2) if you do re-sign him, you are doing so AFTER the COVID issue, which likely means an inflated cap hit (compared to signings this year)
3) Kuemper will be 32 instead of 30.

It is you, not the people you're discussing this with, who isn't taking the other years into account.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Note the "if", and perhaps saying if it's the only to assure he would sign here going into free agency should have been what I said - as it would then allow us to act differently at the draft (as in, trading Gaudreau etc.)

Acquiring Kuemper + Hall for a 1st, and then addings picks and prospects from trading Gaudreau at the draft would be some wise asset management.

And what if Hall doesn't sign?

I think trades that require other things to subsequently happen, in order to make sense, are bad trades.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Is that really the end of the world to not overpay for one of the goalies on the free agent / trade market?

Looking at raw stats without the context of the team in front of them is always a fools errand. Kuemper (and Raanta) and Markstrom were the main reasons Arizona and were playoff teams. Rittich was far from as impactful for us and showed for the second consecutive year he is not currently capable of shouldering the starters load for an entire season.

So yes, missing out on a goalie on the trade/free agent market would absolutely be a terrible thing.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by neo45

Treliving throws around his 2nd rounders like Darryl in his prime

After picking 6x in the 2nd the previous 3 years it has been a drastic change.

[Toonage]

Is...is Frank trying for a pun here? If he is, this makes me irrationally annoyed.

https://www.tsn.ca/free-agent-frenzy...dity-1.1532173

[Calgary4LIfe]

I easily see both sides of the Kuemper for a first vs Markstrom for free argument. I think both sides are right.


I rationalize this way:


If both players play well for however long they are signed for (and assuming that Markstrom doesn't sign for a crazy cap hit like 6 or 7 million a year, and given a 5 year term), then Markstrom is the superior choice. You address the goaltending position for the next 5 seasons with (if it works out) above average goaltending, possibly even much better than that. That's huge. That's better than spending a first to save 1 or 2 million a season, and then be left with yet another big question mark at the end of those 2 seasons - try to re-sign Kuemper again, or find another goalie.


However...


If Markstrom doesn't work out (and even if Kuemper doesn't either), then having a goalie with a mid-to-high cap hit for 5+ seasons is easily worth a first to avoid, and it isn't even close. It would take much more than 1 first to clear up what would be 4 seasons (assuming the Flames keep him for the first season) of dead cap. You can't play a bad goalie like you could with an underperforming player at a different position - there is no hiding or sheltering really, even against bad teams.


I would rather 'gamble' and go after Markstrom myself. I do see that if it doesn't work out, it is going to suck for a very long time, however. Still, I take the risk - but I keep Rittich and try to work with him on positioning, as his high danger sv% is damn good, and the rest of his game COULD be an issue more with positioning that is making him somewhat unreliable.


Holtby is such an interesting question mark for me as well. Will come in cheaper I think, as he has been so up and down in his career. I don't want to take him, but I am curious to see how he responds on a new team. Seems like a guy that rides that confidence wave, and then seems to crash.


I want no part of MAF. Mediocre goalie at best who is declining. Unreliable goalie with flashes of brilliance that makes people believe he is something special, but perhaps one of the worst starters in the league (not sure how far down the list he is as compared to other starters, but he must be down there).

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

If Markstrom doesn't work out (and even if Kuemper doesn't either), then having a goalie with a mid-to-high cap hit for 5+ seasons is easily worth a first to avoid, and it isn't even close. It would take much more than 1 first to clear up what would be 4 seasons (assuming the Flames keep him for the first season) of dead cap. You can't play a bad goalie like you could with an underperforming player at a different position - there is no hiding or sheltering really, even against bad teams.

That is an interesting take, and a valid argument.

However, I don't think the chances of either of these guys being a flop is very high. At some point, you have to commit to a goalie and sign a contract with term. Or you are having this same issue, over and over again.

[Rifraf]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Note the "if", and perhaps saying if it's the only to assure he would sign here going into free agency should have been what I said - as it would then allow us to act differently at the draft (as in, trading Gaudreau etc.)

Acquiring Kuemper + Hall for a 1st, and then addings picks and prospects from trading Gaudreau at the draft would be some wise asset management.

By trading Johnny if Hall signs, what does that say to Hall and the Team? I think it says were not serious about winning. Hall scares me. Will want big money is often injured. If it happens, I think they are better to keep Johnny and Hall on LW, move Chucky to RW. Cut some cap (Ryan/Rittich) and get one of the available goalies. The thing about trading Dave is the condensed schedule goalies will need a break if they pay 5-6 m for one you need a cheap back up which puts us back to the days of not trusting the backups.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Rifraf

By trading Johnny if Hall signs, what does that say to Hall and the Team? I think it says were not serious about winning. Hall scares me. Will want big money is often injured. If it happens, I think they are better to keep Johnny and Hall on LW, move Chucky to RW. Cut some cap (Ryan/Rittich) and get one of the available goalies. The thing about trading Dave is the condensed schedule goalies will need a break if they pay 5-6 m for one you need a cheap back up which puts us back to the days of not trusting the backups.

It says To the team they know Johnny isn’t going to re-sign (and won’t OK a decent trade next year), which they likely know, but they’re committed to having a skilled guy on LW, signed for the near future. It says to Hall that he’s the guy.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Rifraf

By trading Johnny if Hall signs, what does that say to Hall and the Team? I think it says were not serious about winning. Hall scares me. Will want big money is often injured. If it happens, I think they are better to keep Johnny and Hall on LW, move Chucky to RW. Cut some cap (Ryan/Rittich) and get one of the available goalies. The thing about trading Dave is the condensed schedule goalies will need a break if they pay 5-6 m for one you need a cheap back up which puts us back to the days of not trusting the backups.

I don't think it says this at all. Pretty easy explanation to Hall - you simply convey that the Flames are overloaded with wingers (especially LWs), and as a result are trading one in order to shore up another position and better balance the lineup

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Rifraf

By trading Johnny if Hall signs, what does that say to Hall and the Team?

Too much money tied up in LWs and the team wanted a different play style. Also depends on what Guadreau is traded for. If he can get a good true RW then the balance is lot better.


Couturier or Konency are the dream targets

[Monahammer]

Never understood that argument TBH. It assumes that Hall would be happy splitting less minutes, and that whatever we get in a johnny gaudreau trade wont enhance other parts of the roster, both of which are false imo.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Rifraf

By trading Johnny if Hall signs, what does that say to Hall and the Team? I think it says were not serious about winning. Hall scares me. Will want big money is often injured. If it happens, I think they are better to keep Johnny and Hall on LW, move Chucky to RW. Cut some cap (Ryan/Rittich) and get one of the available goalies. The thing about trading Dave is the condensed schedule goalies will need a break if they pay 5-6 m for one you need a cheap back up which puts us back to the days of not trusting the backups.

To me it tells Hall we view him as a replacement for our top offensive player. This team likely still spends to the cap and uses the resources from a Johnny trade to improve the team down the road and the cap space they still have will go to rebuilding the blueline and getting a legit number 1 goalie.

Part of the sales pitch to Hall

“The Oilers thought you were a problem and sold you off for embarrassingly little. We all knew they were wrong and you proved it by winning the Hart. R believe in you so much we are moving our top offensive player for the last 5 years to help build this team. We want you to make the Oilers pay for the rest of your career”

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I would rather give a first for Kuemper than sign Markstrom to a disastrous contract.

But it's just that it doesn't make sense in terms of asset value.

You can probably have both...trade for Kuemper, then sign him to a disastrous contract.

TBF, there aren't that many 5ish x 5ish G contracts that are disastrous:
Schneider
Jones? (TBD)

At most, the rest seem to have a bad year or two at the end where you just have an overpaid backup level goalie (Dubnyk, Howard, .

Originally Posted by Robbob

I get that there are goalies available for free in the UFA market, but can this team afford to swing and miss on Kempuer and Markstrom if he becomes available? The others available are lateral moves at best.

Absolutely we can. The skaters pissed away series the last two years despite solid+ goaltending until the elimination game.

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

I'm just saying that trading that p ick isn't some disaster like some are portraying it to be. Yes, there is some risk, but to me it looks more it's 50-50 at worst.

In a vacuum, trading any one pick isn't, but the cumulative effects of trading top-100 picks away is probably the biggest reason this team is locked into perpetual mediocrity.

[HighLifeMan]

Outside of the big names in Hall and Markstrom that clearly fill needs for us, I would look hard into names like Trevor Van Reimsdyk, Johan Larsson, and Jesper Fast.

Acquiring Larsson would allow us to move Ryan for a pick and have a player who has been absolutely buried in defensive zone deployment in Buffalo to anchor the 4th line. Hell he could be put beside Ryan for an extremely strong 4th line.

TVR would be an nice cheap acquisition to pair with Valimaki on the third pairing.

Fast will likely cost too much but would make an ideal shutdown RW for Backlund, or be a wonderful fit alongside Bennett and Dube.