2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

But picks 17-22 could just as easily be Parise, Getzlaf, Burns, Fehr, Stuart
or more recently 16-25 in 2015 went:
Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Evgeny Svechnikov, Eriksson Ek, White, Samsonov, Boeser, Konecny, Roslovic.

Either way, there are plenty of extremely valuable players that have historically and recently been picked in that part of the draft.

To be fair you cherry picked the best 2 drafts from the last 25 years at least

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

I don't understand why so many people think trading pick #19 for Kuemper is such a terrible idea. Do you all not remember the last time a draft was hyped like this? Picks 17-22 were Lazar, Mueller, Rychel, Mantha ad Gauthier. mid-late first round picks are ridiculously overrated by people.

This draft is legitimately different. I'm using HockeyProspecting to look at the players you listed, and the NHLe's are staggeringly different.


Lazar in D-0: NHLe of 21
Mueller D-0: NHLe of 12
Rychel in D-0: NHLe of 31 - he busted
Mantha in D-0: NHLe of 28 - awesome pick
Gauthier in D-0: NHLe of 23

Zary in D-0: NHLe of 37
Amirov in D-0: NHLe of 32
Bourque in D-0: NHLe of 31
Perreault in D-0: NHLe of 30
Mysak in D-0: NHLe of 28
Foerster in D-0: NHLe of 32


This is a very strong draft (unless you're looking for defencemen). I understand why people will be upset - but at the same time, you have to weigh contract values.


Kuemper at 30 signed for 2 years at 4.5M while being a better goalie than Markstrom Vs. Markstrom at 30 signed at probably 5 years worth $6M while not being as good as Kuemper? There's a value conversation to be had there.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

I don't understand why so many people think trading pick #19 for Kuemper is such a terrible idea. Do you all not remember the last time a draft was hyped like this? Picks 17-22 were Lazar, Mueller, Rychel, Mantha ad Gauthier. mid-late first round picks are ridiculously overrated by people.

I would rather give a first for Kuemper than sign Markstrom to a disastrous contract.

But it's just that it doesn't make sense in terms of asset value.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Honestly if they trade a first round pick, in what people are calling one of the deepest drafts since 2003, for Darcy Kuemper then just fire Treliving on the spot.

Would just be idiotic asset management.

Anyone else getting tired of seeing these ‘Fire Treliving if...’ comments?

‘I want to talk to your manager’.....okay Karen, settle down. Lotta Diva’s leading up to draft day.

[DomeFoam]

Our scouting staff has done a pretty solid job in recent years. Need to see what they can do with a first round pick in a deep draft and trust they can get an impact prospect there because right now there isn't one within the organization and thats an issue.

Trading a first under the illusion that we're a contender for a 30 year old goalie is not the right move here.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

But picks 17-22 could just as easily be Parise, Getzlaf, Burns, Fehr, Stuart
or more recently 16-25 in 2015 went:
Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Evgeny Svechnikov, Eriksson Ek, White, Samsonov, Boeser, Konecny, Roslovic.

Either way, there are plenty of extremely valuable players that have historically and recently been picked in that part of the draft.

I'm not suggesting there is no risk, just saying it's not the end of the world

[bax]

I've been opposed to trading away Hanifin, but if he is a target for Jersey I would do it for the right price. Something like:

Hanifin, Parsons, 3rd
for
18, 20, Carrick

Then move Ryan for one of Ottawa's 2nd round picks.

Add UFA's Markstrom, Hall, Soucy, and Demelo.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Hall - Backlund - Tkachuk
Dube - Bennett - Mangiapane
Lucic - Jankowski - Rieder
Gawdin

Giordano - Andersson
Valimaki - Demelo
Soucy - Carrick
Kylington

Markstrom
Rittich

Shakes up the team, deep forward group, fairly inexperienced on the blue line, but the Flames get to pick 18, 19, 20, 50, and 59. Would be an exciting draft day and fun to see the Flames pick 3 times in a row.

[Demetric]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

I don't understand why so many people think trading pick #19 for Kuemper is such a terrible idea. Do you all not remember the last time a draft was hyped like this? Picks 17-22 were Lazar, Mueller, Rychel, Mantha ad Gauthier. mid-late first round picks are ridiculously overrated by people.

[Poster]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

This draft is legitimately different. I'm using HockeyProspecting to look at the players you listed, and the NHLe's are staggeringly different.


Lazar in D-0: NHLe of 21
Mueller D-0: NHLe of 12
Rychel in D-0: NHLe of 31 - he busted
Mantha in D-0: NHLe of 28 - awesome pick
Gauthier in D-0: NHLe of 23

Zary in D-0: NHLe of 37
Amirov in D-0: NHLe of 32
Bourque in D-0: NHLe of 31
Perreault in D-0: NHLe of 30
Mysak in D-0: NHLe of 28
Foerster in D-0: NHLe of 32


This is a very strong draft (unless you're looking for defencemen).

To he fair NHLe is a non stat that proves nothing.

Might as well look at their NHL69+1/60 ratio. Of course it’s nonsense too, just like this NHLe stuff.

[kukkudo]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Anyone else getting tired of seeing these ‘Fire Treliving if...’ comments?

‘I want to talk to your manager’.....okay Karen, settle down. Lotta Diva’s leading up to draft day.

Absolutely no excuse trading the first pick for Kreumper, and if it happens its a GM desperate to save his job for another few years. All people want is to stock up the cupboards sign a cheap UFA goalie and keep it moving.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by bax

I've been opposed to trading away Hanifin, but if he is a target for Jersey I would do it for the right price. Something like:

Hanifin, Parsons, 3rd
for
18, 20, Carrick

Then move Ryan for one of Ottawa's 2nd round picks.

Add UFA's Markstrom, Hall, Soucy, and Demelo.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Hall - Backlund - Tkachuk
Dube - Bennett - Mangiapane
Lucic - Jankowski - Rieder
Gawdin

Giordano - Andersson
Valimaki - Demelo
Soucy - Carrick
Kylington

Markstrom
Rittich

Shakes up the team, deep forward group, fairly inexperienced on the blue line, but the Flames get to pick 18, 19, 20, 50, and 59. Would be an exciting draft day and fun to see the Flames pick 3 times in a row.

I like most of those moves and the prospects coming in but that blueline looks truly awful

[Robbob]

For the morning show, they got on that discussion because yesterday they finished the mock draft with Lou and Sam Cosentino (I think they said it will air Friday). Based on the discussion they had, the players that were available once the Flames were on the board was just what you would expect drafting at that position, a bunch of projects. Probably a few years before they make an impact Where the Kempuer part fits in, is that Arizona is hurting for picks in the next couple years while just being a rutterless mess.

I get that there are goalies available for free in the UFA market, but can this team afford to swing and miss on Kempuer and Markstrom if he becomes available? The others available are lateral moves at best.

[sureLoss]

Also of note in 31 thoughts is that Friedman wrote that it seems to be heading in the direction that the Coyotes will keep Kuemper.

I also have previously stated why I think it is unlikely why the Coyotes will trade for a 1st round pick in this year's draft.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Poster

To he fair NHLe is a non stat that proves nothing.

Might as well look at their NHL69+1/60 ratio. Of course it’s nonsense too, just like this NHLe stuff.

Yeah, I mean...data is dumb. The draft is completely random, so you may as well pick a first name out of a hat, and then a last name out of a beer bottle, and then assign them to teams and have those teams battle to the death to see which name most closely resembles that of someone in the draft.

You tell me, which team was smarter:

57th Overall: NHLe of 4 in their D-0
58th Overall: NHLe of 41 in their D-0

That's Wotherspoon Vs. Kucherov

Or how about

54th Overall: NHLe of 1 in their D-0
55th Overall: NHLe of 9 in their D-0
79th Overall: NHLe of 31 in their D-0

That's Hunter Smith Vs. Brandon Montour Vs. Brayden Point

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Also of note in 31 thoughts is that Friedman wrote that it seems to be heading in the direction that the Coyotes will keep Kuemper.

I also have previously stated why I think it is unlikely why the Coyotes will trade for a 1st round pick in this year's draft.

Yeah, their GM not being allowed to participate in the draft makes 2021 picks much more likely - if likely at all.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

I don't understand why so many people think trading pick #19 for Kuemper is such a terrible idea. Do you all not remember the last time a draft was hyped like this? Picks 17-22 were Lazar, Mueller, Rychel, Mantha ad Gauthier. mid-late first round picks are ridiculously overrated by people.

Here are the players to go 18-22 in the last 10 drafts.

2010: Watson, Bjugstad, Bennett, Sheahan, Tinordi
2011: McNeil, Klefbom, Murphy, Noesen, Biggs
2012: Teravainen, Vasilevski, Laughton, Jankowski, Maatta
2013: Mueller, Rychel, Mantha , Gauthier, Poirier
2014: Tuch, DeAngelo, Schmaltz, Fabbri, Kapanen
2015: Chabot, Svechnikov, Eriksson-Ek, White, Samsonov
2016: Fabbro, Stanley, Bellows, Gauthier, Rubtsov
2017: Vaakanainen, Norris, Thomas, Chytil, Yamamoto
2018: Foudy, O'Brian, Kupari, Merkley, Miller
2019: Harley, Thomson, Heinola, Poulin, Bjornfot

There tends to be at least two guys a season that become a key player taken in that range. Honestly I'd much rather a shot at a top propsect vs 2 years of a goalie that has been great the last two years, but wasn't very good before that.

Also Flames have drafted quite well recently, so I'd rather hope they could hit on a pick and find a guy that contributes here long term vs. a short term goalie who is already 30.

[Poster]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah, I mean...data is dumb. The draft is completely random, so you may as well pick a first name out of a hat, and then a last name out of a beer bottle, and then assign them to teams and have those teams battle to the death to see which name most closely resembles that of someone in the draft.

You tell me, which team was smarter:

57th Overall: NHLe of 4 in their D-0
58th Overall: NHLe of 41 in their D-0

That's Wotherspoon Vs. Kucherov

Or how about

54th Overall: NHLe of 1 in their D-0
55th Overall: NHLe of 9 in their D-0
79th Overall: NHLe of 31 in their D-0

That's Hunter Smith Vs. Brandon Montour Vs. Brayden Point



Yeah, their GM not being allowed to participate in the draft makes 2021 picks much more likely - if likely at all.

NHL teams harvest NHL quality players by watching them play, talking to coaches who worked with the player before AND by applying development techniques and protocols after the draft.

They don’t use random fan boi stats. I mean Kucherov probably was a better player than Witherspoon, go figure.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Here are the players to go 18-22 in the last 10 drafts.

2010: Watson, Bjugstad, Bennett, Sheahan, Tinordi
2011: McNeil, Klefbom, Murphy, Noesen, Biggs
2012: Teravainen, Vasilevski, Laughton, Jankowski, Maatta
2013: Mueller, Rychel, Mantha , Gauthier, Poirier
2014: Tuch, DeAngelo, Schmaltz, Fabbri, Kapanen
2015: Chabot, Svechnikov, Eriksson-Ek, White, Samsonov
2016: Fabbro, Stanley, Bellows, Gauthier, Rubtsov
2017: Vaakanainen, Norris, Thomas, Chytil, Yamamoto
2018: Foudy, O'Brian, Kupari, Merkley, Miller
2019: Harley, Thomson, Heinola, Poulin, Bjornfot

There tends to be at least two guys a season that become a key player taken in that range. Honestly I'd much rather a shot at a top propsect vs 2 years of a goalie that has been great the last two years, but wasn't very good before that.

Also Flames have drafted quite well recently, so I'd rather hope they could hit on a pick and find a guy that contributes here long term vs. a short term goalie who is already 30.

I'm just saying that trading that p ick isn't some disaster like some are portraying it to be. Yes, there is some risk, but to me it looks more it's 50-50 at worst.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Poster

NHL teams harvest NHL quality players by watching them play, talking to coaches who worked with the player before AND by applying development techniques and protocols after the draft.

They don’t use random fan boi stats. I mean Kucherov probably was a better player than Witherspoon, go figure.

They also use data, and lots of it - and yeah, undoubtedly more complicated data sets than just NHLe, but it's far from a meaningless point of data.

Teams that use data in their decision making process generally don't do dumb-ass stuff like drafting Hunter Smith, or at least they limit their risks of making such picks. There's a reason why you've not seen the Flames make mistakes like that very often (*cough*Keegan Kanzig*cough*) since Tree has taken over.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

I don't understand why so many people think trading pick #19 for Kuemper is such a terrible idea. Do you all not remember the last time a draft was hyped like this? Picks 17-22 were Lazar, Mueller, Rychel, Mantha ad Gauthier. mid-late first round picks are ridiculously overrated by people.

the uncertainty of these picks is the best reason to make as many of them as you can.


The draft is a crapshoot but it's also a double-edged sword because it's really the main way to build a good team

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

Absolutely no excuse trading the first pick for Kreumper, and if it happens its a GM desperate to save his job for another few years. All people want is to stock up the cupboards sign a cheap UFA goalie and keep it moving.

My post is in reference to the ‘fire Treliving’ rabble rousers that seems to be popping up with some frequency.

There’s a lot of pent up emotions flying around here over nothing more than speculation and radio chatter.