Potential Gaudreau trades: Rest of Eastern Conference Post#253

[bax]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

My inclination is that getting two mid-late round picks for Gaudreau is a disappointing return. Let's take a look at 5 or 6 drafts in a row to see what the 18th and 20th picks were, as well as for fun the 17th, 19th and 21st picks. My inclination is that they often are busts like Poirier and Klimchuk, or decent depth players like Jankowski, with the occasional high-end player mixed in. I do think it is very possible to 'hit' on players that would replace Gaudreau down the road, but would rarely surpass him. It does happen - after all, Gaudreau is indeed a 4th round pick himself, but it is a very rare occurrence to get a player that ends up being as good as Gaudreau even in the 2nd half of the 1st round. Let's see:

==================================
2010:
17 Joey Hishon
18 Austin Watson
19 Nick Bjugstad
20 Beau Bennett
21 Riley Sheahan

Result? I wouldn't trade those 5 first round picks for Gaudreau.
==================================

2011
17 Nathan Beaulieu
18 Mark McNeill
19 Oscar Klefbom
20 Connor Murphy
21 Stefan Noesen

Result? Klefbom being the best player - arguably Beaulieu if you want, I won't argue. Both those players together for Johnny? Meh. All those 5 for Johnny? Still disappointed. Just the two actual picks? A bust and a dime a dozen defencemen. No thanks.
==================================

2012:
17 Tomas Hertl
18 Teuvo Terravainen
19 Andrei Vasilveskly
20 Scott Laughton
21 Mark Jankowski

Result: The 2 picks are underwhelming to me. The 5 picks together? That's awesome. They at least are all players, so that's something positive, but obviously always a mixed bag.
==================================

2013:
17 Curtis Lazar
18 Mirco Mueller
19 Kyrby Rychel
20 Anthony Mantha
21Frederick Gauthier

Result: 2 picks are fantastic - I would do that trade for Gaudreau. But that's pretty scary - Bust - Great player - Bust - Great player - 4th line depth player. Still, that's a good trade straight up. It only gets negligibly better when you have all 5 first round picks, and that was considered a good draft too.
==================================

2014:
17 Travis Sanheim
18 Alex Tuch
19 Tony DeAngelo
20 Nick Schmaltz
21Robby Fabbri

Two picks are decent. I wouldn't love it, wouldn't hate it. I like Tuch a lot. Schmaltz is a decent player. All 5 picks together? For sure (ignoring DeAngelo's character), and it is a home-run. 5 players here, some top-pairing defencemen or forwards, and some decent depth. I would hate it if ended up becominmg Schmaltz-Fabbri as the two picks though, even though they are both players.
==================================

2015:
17 Kyle Connor
18 Thomas Chabot
19 Evgeny Svechnikov (the bust one)
20 Joel Ericksson Ek
21Colin White

Chabot and Ek? Yeah, I am down with this trade. Straight-up for Connor? I would do it. All 5 picks? Out of the park for Calgary.
==================================

2016:
17 Dante Fabbro
18 Logan Stanley
19 Kieffer Bellows
20 Dennis Cholowski
21 Julien Gauthier

2 busts (probably - still young, but probable busts). All 5 picks? 3 underwhelming depth players. No thank you.
==================================

I cut it off here, as you can't expect middle of the round-late first round picks to make it to the NHL right away. Even in this late stage, Stanley and Cholowski still have a shot at becoming NHL'ers, but IF they do, they probably won't become core players or even strong supplementary players, but rather cheap depth.

The results speak for themselves. Trading Gaudreau for NJ's 18th and 20th picks can be really good, can be just 'meh', or it can just be throwing Gaudreau away for nothing in return. It really is a mixed-bag as most of us were fully aware of before I decided to go through this. If you like to gamble, then this is a solid trade. I don't know if I would do this personally - I think there is too much risk, and you are MORE LIKELY to be disappointed in the return than not.

Let's do the same thing for the 7th overall pick straight-up (as this is sometimes discussed as well). For the hell of it, I will also do the same and include the pick before and the pick after.

==================================

2010:
6 Brett Connoly
7 Jeff Skinner
8 Alexander Burmistrov

To be honest, Skinner is by far the best, and I guess at his best so far, it wouldn't be too terrible for the Flames, but all in all it would be very disappointing IMO. A better goal scorer, but worse at driving the play and making his teammates better. I wouldn't even think about doing it, and the other two players are depth and not much else.
==================================

2011:
6 Zibanejad
7 Scheifele
8 Couturier

Funny one. Up until recently, absolutely HELL NO to Zibanejad. Now I think I would. The other two are no-brainers to me, and Couturier has been discussed ad nauseam already.
==================================

2012:
6 Hampus Lindholm
7 Matt Dumba
8 Derrick Pouliot

Hmm.. tough one. I absolutely hated Dumba as a prospect. He seemed to have the IQ of a goldfish. However, he has really developed incredibly well on the Wild. Tempted, but I would want just a bit more for some reason. Pouliot would be terrible - a player I guess, but a terrible return. Lindholm would be an out of the park hit, however.
==================================

2013:
6 Monahan
7 Nurse
8 Ristolainen

Gaudreau for Nurse? Puke. A package of Monahan, Nurse and Ristolainen would be pretty good, however! Monahan or Gaudreau? That's a good question. Let's just call it a tie for the sake of argument on this board as there is already plenty of discussion of which one is more disappointing than the other. However, Nurse + Ristolainen isn't very great. Two very big, rugged defencemen that can skate decently... but have the combined IQ of a pet rock. No thanks.
==================================


2014:
6 Virtanen
7 Fleury
8 Nylander

I wouldn't trade Gaudreau for all 3 combined. I like Nylander, but he is definitely not as good as Gaudreau, and it isn't even close IMO. Virtanen is a bust that won't be qualified by Vancouver and is a depth player. Fleury has never lived up to his hype. Again, I don't think I would trade Gaudreau for a package of these 3 players.
==================================


2015:
6 Zacha
7 Provorov
8 Werenski

I wouldn't do Zacha for Gaudreau straight up, but I would Provorov or Werenski.
==================================

2016:
6 Tkachuk
7 Keller
8 Nylander

Tkachuk is a no-brainer, but Keller? Definitely not as good and will probably never be as good. Alex Nylander? No thanks. That's awful.


A better bag most assuredly, but still a bit mixed too, which is a surprise to no one. This is why trading Gaudreau carries so much risk. You can still draft a dud at 7th quite easily, or just a depth guy, but sometimes you do get a star. Gaudreau is a star. I think it might be easier to ADD to him and the team overall than to try and find a better player(s) in the draft.


However, if the Flames sell, this would be a good year to sell as this is a deeper draft, and it increases your chances of finding good players at 18 and 20 (as well as from other trades of course).

Thanks for doing this. It's always fun and exciting to read about new prospects, but I find I can easily get excited for about 30 potential players. It's always positive for these prospects before they are drafted.

Going back and seeing how they panned out is always a different story.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by bax

Thanks for doing this. It's always fun and exciting to read about new prospects, but I find I can easily get excited for about 30 potential players. It's always positive for these prospects before they are drafted.

Going back and seeing how they panned out is always a different story.

Yup, if the Flames trade players for straight futures then they should not be re-tooling unless they are then flipped for players that can contribute.



Monahan for Cozens/8OA sounds exciting until they turns into Bennett or worse.

[N26]

Five hour island wide power outage here that messed up Bahamas Telecom and I see we've breezed through NJ and are at Florida now.

Officially it is Philadelphia until the end of the day then New Jersey tomorrow.

Any more Philly tafade ideas?

[Enoch Root]

Konecny + Frost for Gaudreau + 2nd

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by N26

Five hour island wide power outage here that messed up Bahamas Telecom and I see we've breezed through NJ and are at Florida now.

Officially it is Philadelphia until the end of the day then New Jersey tomorrow.

Any more Philly tafade ideas?

You'll have to forgive them, CP can't abide to thread rules. Its impossible.

[N26]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

My inclination is that getting two mid-late round picks for Gaudreau is a disappointing return. Let's take a look at 5 or 6 drafts in a row to see what the 18th and 20th picks were, as well as for fun the 17th, 19th and 21st picks. My inclination is that they often are busts like Poirier and Klimchuk, or decent depth players like Jankowski, with the occasional high-end player mixed in. I do think it is very possible to 'hit' on players that would replace Gaudreau down the road, but would rarely surpass him. It does happen - after all, Gaudreau is indeed a 4th round pick himself, but it is a very rare occurrence to get a player that ends up being as good as Gaudreau even in the 2nd half of the 1st round. Let's see:

==================================
2010:
17 Joey Hishon
18 Austin Watson
19 Nick Bjugstad
20 Beau Bennett
21 Riley Sheahan

Result? I wouldn't trade those 5 first round picks for Gaudreau.
==================================

2011
17 Nathan Beaulieu
18 Mark McNeill
19 Oscar Klefbom
20 Connor Murphy
21 Stefan Noesen

Result? Klefbom being the best player - arguably Beaulieu if you want, I won't argue. Both those players together for Johnny? Meh. All those 5 for Johnny? Still disappointed. Just the two actual picks? A bust and a dime a dozen defencemen. No thanks.
==================================

2012:
17 Tomas Hertl
18 Teuvo Terravainen
19 Andrei Vasilveskly
20 Scott Laughton
21 Mark Jankowski

Result: The 2 picks are underwhelming to me. The 5 picks together? That's awesome. They at least are all players, so that's something positive, but obviously always a mixed bag.
==================================

2013:
17 Curtis Lazar
18 Mirco Mueller
19 Kyrby Rychel
20 Anthony Mantha
21Frederick Gauthier

Result: 2 picks are fantastic - I would do that trade for Gaudreau. But that's pretty scary - Bust - Great player - Bust - Great player - 4th line depth player. Still, that's a good trade straight up. It only gets negligibly better when you have all 5 first round picks, and that was considered a good draft too.
==================================

2014:
17 Travis Sanheim
18 Alex Tuch
19 Tony DeAngelo
20 Nick Schmaltz
21Robby Fabbri

Two picks are decent. I wouldn't love it, wouldn't hate it. I like Tuch a lot. Schmaltz is a decent player. All 5 picks together? For sure (ignoring DeAngelo's character), and it is a home-run. 5 players here, some top-pairing defencemen or forwards, and some decent depth. I would hate it if ended up becominmg Schmaltz-Fabbri as the two picks though, even though they are both players.
==================================

2015:
17 Kyle Connor
18 Thomas Chabot
19 Evgeny Svechnikov (the bust one)
20 Joel Ericksson Ek
21Colin White

Chabot and Ek? Yeah, I am down with this trade. Straight-up for Connor? I would do it. All 5 picks? Out of the park for Calgary.
==================================

2016:
17 Dante Fabbro
18 Logan Stanley
19 Kieffer Bellows
20 Dennis Cholowski
21 Julien Gauthier

2 busts (probably - still young, but probable busts). All 5 picks? 3 underwhelming depth players. No thank you.
==================================

I cut it off here, as you can't expect middle of the round-late first round picks to make it to the NHL right away. Even in this late stage, Stanley and Cholowski still have a shot at becoming NHL'ers, but IF they do, they probably won't become core players or even strong supplementary players, but rather cheap depth.

The results speak for themselves. Trading Gaudreau for NJ's 18th and 20th picks can be really good, can be just 'meh', or it can just be throwing Gaudreau away for nothing in return. It really is a mixed-bag as most of us were fully aware of before I decided to go through this. If you like to gamble, then this is a solid trade. I don't know if I would do this personally - I think there is too much risk, and you are MORE LIKELY to be disappointed in the return than not.

Let's do the same thing for the 7th overall pick straight-up (as this is sometimes discussed as well). For the hell of it, I will also do the same and include the pick before and the pick after.

==================================

2010:
6 Brett Connoly
7 Jeff Skinner
8 Alexander Burmistrov

To be honest, Skinner is by far the best, and I guess at his best so far, it wouldn't be too terrible for the Flames, but all in all it would be very disappointing IMO. A better goal scorer, but worse at driving the play and making his teammates better. I wouldn't even think about doing it, and the other two players are depth and not much else.
==================================

2011:
6 Zibanejad
7 Scheifele
8 Couturier

Funny one. Up until recently, absolutely HELL NO to Zibanejad. Now I think I would. The other two are no-brainers to me, and Couturier has been discussed ad nauseam already.
==================================

2012:
6 Hampus Lindholm
7 Matt Dumba
8 Derrick Pouliot

Hmm.. tough one. I absolutely hated Dumba as a prospect. He seemed to have the IQ of a goldfish. However, he has really developed incredibly well on the Wild. Tempted, but I would want just a bit more for some reason. Pouliot would be terrible - a player I guess, but a terrible return. Lindholm would be an out of the park hit, however.
==================================

2013:
6 Monahan
7 Nurse
8 Ristolainen

Gaudreau for Nurse? Puke. A package of Monahan, Nurse and Ristolainen would be pretty good, however! Monahan or Gaudreau? That's a good question. Let's just call it a tie for the sake of argument on this board as there is already plenty of discussion of which one is more disappointing than the other. However, Nurse + Ristolainen isn't very great. Two very big, rugged defencemen that can skate decently... but have the combined IQ of a pet rock. No thanks.
==================================


2014:
6 Virtanen
7 Fleury
8 Nylander

I wouldn't trade Gaudreau for all 3 combined. I like Nylander, but he is definitely not as good as Gaudreau, and it isn't even close IMO. Virtanen is a bust that won't be qualified by Vancouver and is a depth player. Fleury has never lived up to his hype. Again, I don't think I would trade Gaudreau for a package of these 3 players.
==================================


2015:
6 Zacha
7 Provorov
8 Werenski

I wouldn't do Zacha for Gaudreau straight up, but I would Provorov or Werenski.
==================================

2016:
6 Tkachuk
7 Keller
8 Nylander

Tkachuk is a no-brainer, but Keller? Definitely not as good and will probably never be as good. Alex Nylander? No thanks. That's awful.


A better bag most assuredly, but still a bit mixed too, which is a surprise to no one. This is why trading Gaudreau carries so much risk. You can still draft a dud at 7th quite easily, or just a depth guy, but sometimes you do get a star. Gaudreau is a star. I think it might be easier to ADD to him and the team overall than to try and find a better player(s) in the draft.


However, if the Flames sell, this would be a good year to sell as this is a deeper draft, and it increases your chances of finding good players at 18 and 20 (as well as from other trades of course).

Great post. I am out of thanks right now but exactly the kind of more in-depth stuff i was hoping this thread would provoke

[Enoch Root]

Konecny + Myers for Gaudreau + EDM 3rd

[N26]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Konecny + Myers for Gaudreau + EDM 3rd

I think I would do that as Calgary GM. As Philly GM I would look for a player or prospect coming back rather than a pick. Maybe Yelesin.

[AC]

Friedman and Marek were talking about how much Myers skyrocketed for the Flyers this year. Sounds like he's thought of as a future first pairing Dman.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by N26

I think I would do that as Calgary GM. As Philly GM I would look for a player or prospect coming back rather than a pick. Maybe Yelesin.

done

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by N26

I think I would do that as Calgary GM. As Philly GM I would look for a player or prospect coming back rather than a pick. Maybe Yelesin.

Not Yelesin! Yelesin isn't the defenseman we need, he is the defenseman we deserve!

The more that I think about your original post, the more I kind of am interested in Scott Laughton. There has been a steady progression to the thought process both within the league, and definitely amongst fans, that a player peaks in his early 20s, and from there it is a slow decent into doddering uselessness.

Laughton only really found his game in the second part of last year, and had an opportunity to show what he could do this year. And what he could do was hold down a defensive role on the third line, with a rotating cast of wingers, while chipping in offensively.

It is the same progression that we saw in Calgary with Backlund, and we hope to see with the elderly 18 year old Sam Bennett. After seeing all three of these players step up in the last season/season in a half/half a season, I'm curious as to whether they are capable of shouldering more responsibility.

The more I think about it, I'm ok with going with a 'bad on paper' centre depth much like the Las Vegas Knights put together when they entered the league.

Laughton + first round 2021 + Bobby Brink
for
Johnny Gaudreau

Trade Monahan and let the Backlund/Laughton/Bennett tandem destroy the universe.

[Philly06Cup]

Re Flyer prospects:

Everywhere I've read has Frost as a top 20 prospect in the league. His ceiling is Gaudreau. He didn't stick in the NHL this year because of his strength. He will get stronger.

Farabee is NHL ready, belongs in the top 6, and can easily jump into a top line player.

Surprised at all the Myers love. He had a decent playoff. To me, Sanheim still has the higher ceiling, which says a lot. Both of them have the makings of a #1 pair. They're also huge, can play mean, and move the puck really well. Lots of things to like.

In a conference call, GM Fletcher said Patrick has been living life normally and they fully expect him to play at the beginning of next year. Asked if Patrick's migraines are related to a concussion he suffered the year prior, Fletcher replied "I dunno maybe". He carries some risk, but still has all the upside when he was draft #2 overall ahead of Heiskanen, Makar, and E. Petterson. Plays a 200 foot game, high IQ, good shot and hands.

As a comparison, I would put assign of these prospects at least the same value as Valimaki. Myers/Sanheim are a step above Rasmus.

[Roof-Daddy]

Not to derail the thread, bu it's pretty frustrating that the Flames had Myers at their camp back in 2015 and then let him get away.

Between him Rasmus and Fox our right side D should have been set for the next decade.

####ing college players.

[N26]

I thought I would see more of Sanheim in suggested deals given his skillset and Calgary connection.

But I think the request that you take the time to fully consider the opposing GMs motivations and actually plan that team's roster too, make people realize that it is very unlikely you can get Couturier, Provorov, Hart or Sanheim out of Philly without offering a huge huge return. I'd say Couturier and Hart are basically untouchable and the other two getting there.

But Konecny or Myers? Maybe

[Roof-Daddy]

I don't think you're going to get any of Provorov (duh), Sanheim or Myers in a Gaudreau trade.

If you want a Dman Ghostisbehere is the only logical choice, and of course they would have to add some other good pieces because the Flames aren't trading Gaudreau with Ghost as the main piece coming back.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I don't think you're going to get any of Provorov (duh), Sanheim or Myers in a Gaudreau trade.

If you want a Dman Ghostisbehere is the only logical choice, and of course they would have to add some other good pieces because the Flames aren't trading Gaudreau with Ghost as the main piece coming back.

You have to give to get. No Gaudreau trade is going to be built around a one-dimensional player like Ghostisbehere. He is a balance-out-the-money player.

If you want an elite player, you give up an elite player, or you give up elite prospects.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Not to derail the thread, bu it's pretty frustrating that the Flames had Myers at their camp back in 2015 and then let him get away.

Between him Rasmus and Fox our right side D should have been set for the next decade.

####ing college players.

The Flames seem to be inviting a lot of good players to their camps.
It seems like the scouting department actually knows what they're doing. Perhaps they're almost there.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

2012:
17 Tomas Hertl
18 Teuvo Terravainen
19 Andrei Vasilveskly
20 Scott Laughton
21 Mark Jankowski

Result: The 2 picks are underwhelming to me. The 5 picks together? That's awesome. They at least are all players, so that's something positive, but obviously always a mixed bag.
==================================

2013:
17 Curtis Lazar
18 Mirco Mueller
19 Kyrby Rychel
20 Anthony Mantha
21Frederick Gauthier

Result: 2 picks are fantastic - I would do that trade for Gaudreau. But that's pretty scary - Bust - Great player - Bust - Great player - 4th line depth player. Still, that's a good trade straight up. It only gets negligibly better when you have all 5 first round picks, and that was considered a good draft too.
==================================

Teravainen is underwhelming? His last three seasons are 64 points, 76 points, and 63 points in 68 games.


Also, Mirco Mueller is a great player? The Mirco Mueller who had 7 points this season?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You have to give to get. No Gaudreau trade is going to be built around a one-dimensional player like Ghostisbehere. He is a balance-out-the-money player.

If you want an elite player, you give up an elite player, or you give up elite prospects.

Well yeah, I certainly wasn't saying the trade would be "built around" Ghost. But if you want a Dman he's probably the one you get.

I've already posted a proposal, and it was Konecny I had coming back with Ghost.

I've also been on record as saying that I don't think the rumor that originated on here by a CP poster about Couturier/Ghost/2nd for Gaudreau Kylington was as out to lunch as many think either. Of course I've taken some heat for that stance haha.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

The Flames seem to be inviting a lot of good players to their camps.
It seems like the scouting department actually knows what they're doing. Perhaps they're almost there.

Yup and that dev camp approach resulted in us landing Mackey
They didn’t really let Myers get away. They wanted to sign him and he chose elsewhere