Gaudreau and Jankowski, 2022 3rd to Philly
For
Gostisbehere, Patrick, 2020 1st, Cond. 2020 1st/2nd (1st if Flyers make it to the 2021 ECF’s) and Aube-Kubel
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I think people are missing the part where the deal makes sense for the Flyers. You can't just look at value. You have to look at the Flyer's roster, their depth chart, their cap situation, and ask yourself why Fletcher thinks the trade makes the Flyers better.
Trading Konecny removes a core piece, the Flyer's top RW going forward (Voracek is trending down), signed at a great deal. Their #2 RW after the trade would be Aube-Kobel. Adding Gaudreau to LW, where they already have Giroux, JvR, Lindblom, and Farabee, adds to an area of strength, and pushes a good player down to the 4th line.
Yes, Gaudreau might look great with Hayes, and help with the PP. But how much better is a #2 line of Gaudreau - Hayes - Aube-Kubel (or Lindblom playing his off-wing) than a #2 line of Farabee/JvR - Hayes - Konecny? I'd argue not much better, if at all. Then factor in the relative ages of the players (Konecny still likely to improve his production, while Gaudreau has likely already had his best season), and the long-term cap situation (if he re-signs in two seasons, Gaudreau will be asking $8 mil plus, while Konecny is locked in at $5.5 mil for five more seasons) and the valuation tilts further.
The OP asked for a very specific criteria for these proposals, and we're getting the same types of scoffing that we get in the regular trade rumours thread, as though proposing a trade that the other GM might actually want to make is an insult to the Flames.
The OP bent over backwards to make the deal work for the Flyers and made a deal that doesn’t work for the Flames. There is no way the Flames should be trading Gaudreau where the top piece is a prospect and Unsigned RFA and somehow take back more cap then they send out (before signing the RFA). The deal works great for the Flyers. They send out their 3rd best young D, not their top forward prospect, a utility player and a bad contract and get back the best player, a pick and a good young Dman.
I doubt there is a Flyers fan on this planet that wouldn’t take that deal unless they have some in rational hate for Johnny
Gaudreau and Jankowski, 2022 3rd to Philly
For
Gostisbehere, Patrick, 2020 1st, Cond. 2020 1st/2nd (1st if Flyers make it to the 2021 ECF’s) and Aube-Kubel
Correct me if I am wrong but aren't conditional draft picks no longer allowed in trades?
I've tried a few different scenarios where we take more cap than we send out to Philly (which they need) and it is tough. But, what I came up with was this:
For
C/RW Nolan Patrick (RFA)
RD Matt Niskanen 1x 5.75
C/LW Morgan Frost 2x (863k)
2020 2nd round pick
G Alex Lyon (750k)
7.363 going out in cap
Flyers add a little less than 1.7m in cap. So there's an option in this package to balance that out by retaining on Rittich and upgrading the 2nd philly sends over to a 1st.
Rittich solves their back up issue for next year with a more reliable guy who can play high end games and don't mind eating some cap space for that. We get Lyon back to replace Gillies opportunity to be a back up to the newly acquired #1.
Niskanen at full cost for one year would be a perfect fit for the Flames and their D set up. Probably one of the more reliable acquisitions they could make.
The Flames kind of get screwed on the pick they get but walk away with Frost.
Its tough, I also tried adding Gio going over and adding Ghost the other way bit the numbers went haywire.
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I think it is pretty clear through this exercise that Philly is really not a great trading partner for the Flames when it comes to Gaudreau. For those folks that are extremely high on Frost, or Patrick or Drugs it makes sense.
I like the deal Damage provided a lot more than the OP but the Flames still give up the best player (almost a certainty in a Gaudreau trade) and don’t get back an elite prospect while also giving up Kylington who has intriguing upside. I know Damage is extremely high on Patrick but due to injury history I think he is heading straight to being a bust. Frost hasn’t made the NHL full time despite being drafted 3 years ago. His skating has been questioned which is concerning when thinking he will translate his immense skill against NHL players.
If Philly is a partner Konecny needs to be a part of the conversation. If not then the Flames should move on to one of the other 29 teams they can negotiate a trade with
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I think it is pretty clear through this exercise that Philly is really not a great trading partner for the Flames when it comes to Gaudreau. For those folks that are extremely high on Frost, or Patrick or Drugs it makes sense.
I like the deal Damage provided a lot more than the OP but the Flames still give up the best player (almost a certainty in a Gaudreau trade) and don’t get back an elite prospect while also giving up Kylington who has intriguing upside. I know Damage is extremely high on Patrick but due to injury history I think he is heading straight to being a bust. Frost hasn’t made the NHL full time despite being drafted 3 years ago. His skating has been questioned which is concerning when thinking he will translate his immense skill against NHL players.
If Philly is a partner Konecny needs to be a part of the conversation. If not then the Flames should move on to one of the other 29 teams they can negotiate a trade with
I agree completely about Philly not being the best trade partner. I think the Rangers, Sabres, Bruins, Panthers, Canadiens and Blue Jackets make much better trade partners than Philly; and that is only looking at the Eastern Conference.
To New Jersey Devils: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000)
To Calgary Flames: 2 first round picks (Arizona and Vancouver's picks)
New Jersey gets to keep their first overall pick (7th overall) and pick up an elite winger to play with Hischier/Hughes. They also have the cap space to make a trade like this work.
Flames clear a bunch of cap and will end up with the 18th, 19th, and 20th picks in the first round. They can use those picks to restock the prospect pool or as part of a trade. With the cap flexibility they will be able to sign/resign a few UFA's to fill holes left by departing players.
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To New Jersey Devils: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000)
To Calgary Flames: 2 first round picks (Arizona and Vancouver's picks)
New Jersey gets to keep their first overall pick (7th overall) and pick up an elite winger to play with Hischier/Hughes. They also have the cap space to make a trade like this work.
Flames clear a bunch of cap and will end up with the 18th, 19th, and 20th picks in the first round. They can use those picks to restock the prospect pool or as part of a trade. With the cap flexibility they will be able to sign/resign a few UFA's to fill holes left by departing players.
Man i really would not want to do a trade where we only get picks back. If anything we would have to get the 7th overall back plus one of the other two. Two late 1st round picks would be a brutal return imo
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To New Jersey Devils: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000)
To Calgary Flames: 2 first round picks (Arizona and Vancouver's picks)
New Jersey gets to keep their first overall pick (7th overall) and pick up an elite winger to play with Hischier/Hughes. They also have the cap space to make a trade like this work.
Flames clear a bunch of cap and will end up with the 18th, 19th, and 20th picks in the first round. They can use those picks to restock the prospect pool or as part of a trade. With the cap flexibility they will be able to sign/resign a few UFA's to fill holes left by departing players.
Don't like trading Gaudreau for two late firsts, would rather get one quality asset
To New Jersey Devils: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000)
To Calgary Flames: 2 first round picks (Arizona and Vancouver's picks)
New Jersey gets to keep their first overall pick (7th overall) and pick up an elite winger to play with Hischier/Hughes. They also have the cap space to make a trade like this work.
Flames clear a bunch of cap and will end up with the 18th, 19th, and 20th picks in the first round. They can use those picks to restock the prospect pool or as part of a trade. With the cap flexibility they will be able to sign/resign a few UFA's to fill holes left by departing players.
nm
Last edited by mdubz; 09-11-2020 at 01:26 PM.
Reason: read it wrong
Don't like trading Gaudreau for two late firsts, would rather get one quality asset
Not just 2 firsts, Flames would also get 6.75 mil of cap relief which can't be overlooked. There are some decent UFA's that could hit the market this year given the flat cap and expansion draft.
Not just 2 firsts, Flames would also get 6.75 mil of cap relief which can't be overlooked. There are some decent UFA's that could hit the market this year given the flat cap and expansion draft.
And what happens when we miss out on a big forward UFA because we traded our most offensively dynamic forward for picks?
Not just 2 firsts, Flames would also get 6.75 mil of cap relief which can't be overlooked. There are some decent UFA's that could hit the market this year given the flat cap and expansion draft.
Outside of Hall who would be worth trading Gaudreau for to sign? Granlund is meh, maybe Dadonov?
On a side not, I like how Gustafsson is on that list and not Brodie
Dadonov would be so disappointing. Turning 32 next season and major holes are starting to appear in his game. Even ignoring those holes his points per 60 drop from 2.44 to 1.77 when he's not playing with Barkov (has 75% of his minutes over the last 3 seasons with him). He would be the new whipping boy 3 months into that contract.
Dadonov would be so disappointing. Turning 32 next season and major holes are starting to appear in his game. Even ignoring those holes his points per 60 drop from 2.44 to 1.77 when he's not playing with Barkov (has 75% of his minutes over the last 3 seasons with him). He would be the new whipping boy 3 months into that contract.
Yeah, I agree. There are no UFA forwards I would want besides Hall.
I would only want Dadonov and Granlund on cheap show me deals.
My inclination is that getting two mid-late round picks for Gaudreau is a disappointing return. Let's take a look at 5 or 6 drafts in a row to see what the 18th and 20th picks were, as well as for fun the 17th, 19th and 21st picks. My inclination is that they often are busts like Poirier and Klimchuk, or decent depth players like Jankowski, with the occasional high-end player mixed in. I do think it is very possible to 'hit' on players that would replace Gaudreau down the road, but would rarely surpass him. It does happen - after all, Gaudreau is indeed a 4th round pick himself, but it is a very rare occurrence to get a player that ends up being as good as Gaudreau even in the 2nd half of the 1st round. Let's see:
Result? I wouldn't trade those 5 first round picks for Gaudreau.
==================================
2011
17 Nathan Beaulieu 18 Mark McNeill
19 Oscar Klefbom 20 Connor Murphy
21 Stefan Noesen
Result? Klefbom being the best player - arguably Beaulieu if you want, I won't argue. Both those players together for Johnny? Meh. All those 5 for Johnny? Still disappointed. Just the two actual picks? A bust and a dime a dozen defencemen. No thanks.
==================================
2012:
17 Tomas Hertl 18 Teuvo Terravainen
19 Andrei Vasilveskly 20 Scott Laughton
21 Mark Jankowski
Result: The 2 picks are underwhelming to me. The 5 picks together? That's awesome. They at least are all players, so that's something positive, but obviously always a mixed bag.
==================================
Result: 2 picks are fantastic - I would do that trade for Gaudreau. But that's pretty scary - Bust - Great player - Bust - Great player - 4th line depth player. Still, that's a good trade straight up. It only gets negligibly better when you have all 5 first round picks, and that was considered a good draft too.
==================================
2014:
17 Travis Sanheim 18 Alex Tuch
19 Tony DeAngelo 20 Nick Schmaltz
21Robby Fabbri
Two picks are decent. I wouldn't love it, wouldn't hate it. I like Tuch a lot. Schmaltz is a decent player. All 5 picks together? For sure (ignoring DeAngelo's character), and it is a home-run. 5 players here, some top-pairing defencemen or forwards, and some decent depth. I would hate it if ended up becominmg Schmaltz-Fabbri as the two picks though, even though they are both players.
==================================
2015:
17 Kyle Connor 18 Thomas Chabot
19 Evgeny Svechnikov (the bust one) 20 Joel Ericksson Ek
21Colin White
Chabot and Ek? Yeah, I am down with this trade. Straight-up for Connor? I would do it. All 5 picks? Out of the park for Calgary.
==================================
2016:
17 Dante Fabbro 18 Logan Stanley
19 Kieffer Bellows 20 Dennis Cholowski
21 Julien Gauthier
2 busts (probably - still young, but probable busts). All 5 picks? 3 underwhelming depth players. No thank you.
==================================
I cut it off here, as you can't expect middle of the round-late first round picks to make it to the NHL right away. Even in this late stage, Stanley and Cholowski still have a shot at becoming NHL'ers, but IF they do, they probably won't become core players or even strong supplementary players, but rather cheap depth.
The results speak for themselves. Trading Gaudreau for NJ's 18th and 20th picks can be really good, can be just 'meh', or it can just be throwing Gaudreau away for nothing in return. It really is a mixed-bag as most of us were fully aware of before I decided to go through this. If you like to gamble, then this is a solid trade. I don't know if I would do this personally - I think there is too much risk, and you are MORE LIKELY to be disappointed in the return than not.
Let's do the same thing for the 7th overall pick straight-up (as this is sometimes discussed as well). For the hell of it, I will also do the same and include the pick before and the pick after.
==================================
2010:
6 Brett Connoly 7 Jeff Skinner
8 Alexander Burmistrov
To be honest, Skinner is by far the best, and I guess at his best so far, it wouldn't be too terrible for the Flames, but all in all it would be very disappointing IMO. A better goal scorer, but worse at driving the play and making his teammates better. I wouldn't even think about doing it, and the other two players are depth and not much else.
==================================
2011:
6 Zibanejad 7 Scheifele
8 Couturier
Funny one. Up until recently, absolutely HELL NO to Zibanejad. Now I think I would. The other two are no-brainers to me, and Couturier has been discussed ad nauseam already.
==================================
2012:
6 Hampus Lindholm 7 Matt Dumba
8 Derrick Pouliot
Hmm.. tough one. I absolutely hated Dumba as a prospect. He seemed to have the IQ of a goldfish. However, he has really developed incredibly well on the Wild. Tempted, but I would want just a bit more for some reason. Pouliot would be terrible - a player I guess, but a terrible return. Lindholm would be an out of the park hit, however.
==================================
2013:
6 Monahan 7 Nurse
8 Ristolainen
Gaudreau for Nurse? Puke. A package of Monahan, Nurse and Ristolainen would be pretty good, however! Monahan or Gaudreau? That's a good question. Let's just call it a tie for the sake of argument on this board as there is already plenty of discussion of which one is more disappointing than the other. However, Nurse + Ristolainen isn't very great. Two very big, rugged defencemen that can skate decently... but have the combined IQ of a pet rock. No thanks.
==================================
2014:
6 Virtanen 7 Fleury
8 Nylander
I wouldn't trade Gaudreau for all 3 combined. I like Nylander, but he is definitely not as good as Gaudreau, and it isn't even close IMO. Virtanen is a bust that won't be qualified by Vancouver and is a depth player. Fleury has never lived up to his hype. Again, I don't think I would trade Gaudreau for a package of these 3 players.
==================================
2015:
6 Zacha 7 Provorov
8 Werenski
I wouldn't do Zacha for Gaudreau straight up, but I would Provorov or Werenski.
==================================
2016:
6 Tkachuk 7 Keller
8 Nylander
Tkachuk is a no-brainer, but Keller? Definitely not as good and will probably never be as good. Alex Nylander? No thanks. That's awful.
A better bag most assuredly, but still a bit mixed too, which is a surprise to no one. This is why trading Gaudreau carries so much risk. You can still draft a dud at 7th quite easily, or just a depth guy, but sometimes you do get a star. Gaudreau is a star. I think it might be easier to ADD to him and the team overall than to try and find a better player(s) in the draft.
However, if the Flames sell, this would be a good year to sell as this is a deeper draft, and it increases your chances of finding good players at 18 and 20 (as well as from other trades of course).
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