2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Bingo]

I honestly don't think that Friedman had any real information either.

He was asked specifically about Gaudreau and then just dumped some generic platitudes.

[bax]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Because Talbot isn't good enough.

He had his opportunity to establish himself - and he fell apart.

I get that you don't want to tie up money in an older goalie, and I'm definitely not super sold on it either - but that doesn't mean you have to, or should go back to Talbot.

I'll be disappointed if we come back with Rittich and Talbot as the tandem. That tandem is more likely to be worse than it is to be better (age). Even if they come back and perform the same, we still have bottom-half goaltending and that's not good enough.

Markstrom definitely isn't the answer then. Heck, Talbot had better stats than him in the playoffs. Talbot had one bad game. If you want to say he fell apart well so did Markstrom who allowed 15 goals in 4 games against Vegas.

Markstrom and Talbot are both very average goalies. They are fine, but not exceptional. Markstrom is younger, but likely requires more money and term to sign.

Markstrom had 11.4 GSAA this season in 43 games while Talbot had 7.5 in 26 games. I think dishing out a big contract to Markstrom would be a mistake, he has really only had 1 standout season in his career (in a contract year no less).

You want a steady permanent fix then give up the assets for Kuemper. Every other goalie available comes with legitimate concerns (save for Lehner) but I think that ship has sailed. In my eyes Talbot is every bit as good as Markstrom- just comes with less risk.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I am quite concerned that Rittich is going to have a hard time bouncing back from how his season ended.



And I think the Flames are ready to move on. For two seasons in a row he was the starter during the regular season and supplanted come playoff time.

You could be right, but I think it is presumptuous to guess about how he might respond. Rittich is still pretty young, and there are plenty of starting goalies—like Markstrom; like Kuemper—who struggled mightily with inconsistency when they were Rittich's age.

I continue to believe that he is a worthwhile investment to keep developing.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Stanley

Let's do a full on Arizona coup and get Hall, Kuemper and OEL.

And in the process we give them Lucic, Rittich and Gio?

Otherwise, no thanks.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I just hope the Flames have good analytics / eye test with enough reps on these goaltenders.

I hate to see trade or UFA targets based on success in another organization when the style of play here will be different and you may not get the guy you went after.

The Don Edwards syndrome.

The stat GSAA is supposed to levelize that, but like any stat is it honed enough to do that? When I look at the last three years combined, and put a line in the sand at 1250 minutes I get 77 goaltenders.

Sort that by gsaa/60 and you get too many occurrences of the same teams at the top with multiple goaltenders.

Why does Kuemper and Raanta both have the exact same gsaa60 for example? That's worrisome to me despite the stat, as I said, supposedly accounting for team play.

Arizaon, Boston, Dallas, Colorado all have two goaltenders in the top 15

Nice throwback reference. I remember the cringy Hometown hardware commercials when he was traded here, in his full goalie gear. So excited about the trade at the time.

Vezina trophy winner, two time NHL 2nd All Star team that didn't translate here.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Nice throwback reference. I remember the cringy Hometown hardware commercials when he was traded here, in his full goalie gear. So excited about the trade at the time.

Vezina trophy winner, two time NHL 2nd All Star team that didn't translate here.

He was a standup angles goaltender right at the cusp of the game changing to a firewagon pass it around the challenging goaltender style.

[Enoch Root]

I can't believe all the comments against Markstrom.

I don't care what his career numbers are because:

1) he has spent most of his NHL career on terrible, rebuilding teams
2) he has developed into a great goalie in the last couple of years

Do people forget that last season and these playoffs already? Markstrom carried the Canucks on his back all season. They would not have made the post season without him.

IMO, he is, BY FAR, the best goalie available right now. And he is a free agent (assuming he makes it to free agency), so he can be acquired without giving up assets.

I would happily sign him for 5x5, and I expect that he will get more than that.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I can't believe all the comments against Markstrom.

I don't care what his career numbers are because:

1) he has spent most of his NHL career on terrible, rebuilding teams
2) he has developed into a great goalie in the last couple of years

Do people forget that last season and these playoffs already? Markstrom carried the Canucks on his back all season. They would not have made the post season without him.

IMO, he is, BY FAR, the best goalie available right now. And he is a free agent (assuming he makes it to free agency), so he can be acquired without giving up assets.

I would happily sign him for 5x5, and I expect that he will get more than that.

The issue with Markstrom is the fact he'll be 31 in January. So we'd be paying for 31, 32, 33, 34, and 35 in a 5 year deal. At $5M yeah I still do that contract no problem, especially because there'd be no acquisition cost.

If we're talking about a value north of $5M though? That's probably where I bail out.

[dammage79]

So it seems like the Flames should be earmarking about 5m in cap space for a new goalie. Lehners off the table at 5x5. Murray's ask is 5m x 6y and that might be the overpay for the Holtbys and Crawfords.

[ComixZone]

Looks like the 5 year, $5M AAV extension is a real thing with Lehner and Vegas. Agreed to upon back in June.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1304455490877882368

If Vancouver can't give Markstrom assurances he'll be protected in the expansion, I hope Markstrom comes here on the same deal Lehner signed.

[bubbsy]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I think goaltending, though crucial, is a lower priority concern for the flames.

They have much larger concerns in the way of the potential of moving 1-2 of their top line forwards, as well as coming to a realization that their D is NOT a franchise strength. As much as the forwards has been a question mark, I can see why the flames rumours revolve around Dmen. Gio's likely to regress down from being a top pairing d. The next most experienced D is Hanafin, who's nothing but an average defensive dman (who's not a great at defense mind you). Then you have question marks with Valimaki and Kylington. The only sure thing they have on D is Andersson being a top4 RD.

[TheScorpion]

GSAA is a flawed stat because it doesn't take shot quality into account, only volume. I would recommend GSAx, with the x referring to expected goals

https://www.chartinghockey.ca/daily-goalie-charts/

[The Hendog]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Looks like the 5 year, $5M AAV extension is a real thing with Lehner and Vegas. Agreed to upon back in June.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1304455490877882368

If Vancouver can't give Markstrom assurances he'll be protected in the expansion, I hope Markstrom comes here on the same deal Lehner signed.

Good deal for Vegas if true! Thought he could do better on the open market.

But if the fit is good in Vegas and no state tax gives him more $ in his pocket then good for for him!

Bad news for the Flames being in the same division with such a good goalie.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Looks like the 5 year, $5M AAV extension is a real thing with Lehner and Vegas. Agreed to upon back in June.


If Vancouver can't give Markstrom assurances he'll be protected in the expansion, I hope Markstrom comes here on the same deal Lehner signed.

I wonder what is going to happen with MAF?

2 Years at 7 million per season (salary 6.5 mil and 6 million season 2) @ 35 years old, you have to figure he would be happily given away at this point.

[bax]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

GSAA is a flawed stat because it doesn't take shot quality into account, only volume. I would recommend GSAx, with the x referring to expected goals

https://www.chartinghockey.ca/daily-goalie-charts/

I'm not an expert, but just by taking a quick look it appears this is how the available goalies rank:

1. Kuemper 5.10
2. Markstrom -2.36
3. Lehner -3.45
4. Georgiev -3.64
5. Fleury -12.03
6. Murray -23.07

Kuemper still among the best in the league.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by The Hendog

Good deal for Vegas if true! Thought he could do better on the open market.

But if the fit is good in Vegas and no state tax gives him more $ in his pocket then good for for him!

Bad news for the Flames being in the same division with such a good goalie.

The market abandoned him last year though after an equally successful year with the Islanders. The old boys club in the NHL weren't willing to invest in someone who had previously battled some demons and was openly talking about mental health.

I say good on Vegas for giving him the length of contract he deserves, and shame on the rest of the league for not going after him last year. He was apparently willing to sign with NYI for less than 5M per last summer if they were going to give him term, but they wouldn't. To think that the Flames could have offered 4.5M and some term and they would have finally solved their goalie issues is annoying as hell - cowardice on the Flames behalf, and now a divisional rival will reap the rewards.

I think Lehner's UFA off-seasons are a pretty clear damning of a lot of NHL teams. They'll have their bell lets talk promos, or their inclusivity talks, but when it came to paying someone based off the merit of their performance who has had issues, they all hid in the corner.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I just hope the Flames have good analytics / eye test with enough reps on these goaltenders.

I hate to see trade or UFA targets based on success in another organization when the style of play here will be different and you may not get the guy you went after.

The Don Edwards syndrome.

The stat GSAA is supposed to levelize that, but like any stat is it honed enough to do that? When I look at the last three years combined, and put a line in the sand at 1250 minutes I get 77 goaltenders.

Sort that by gsaa/60 and you get too many occurrences of the same teams at the top with multiple goaltenders.

Why does Kuemper and Raanta both have the exact same gsaa60 for example? That's worrisome to me despite the stat, as I said, supposedly accounting for team play.

Arizaon, Boston, Dallas, Colorado all have two goaltenders in the top 15

Which clearly demonstrates that the stat doesn't do what it is supposed to do

[bax]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Which clearly demonstrates that the stat doesn't do what it is supposed to do

To be fair Raanta has always been considered a great goalie, just made of glass. Rask and Bishop have been some of the best goalies in the league for the last 5 years. Grubauer was highly thought of and never had a chance to be a starter until Colorado.

As for the backups Halak has been great for a number of years, Khudobin is proving these playoffs why he always ranks highly in these goalie analytics and Francouz was great in the KHL and transferred that over into in the NHL.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

You could be right, but I think it is presumptuous to guess about how he might respond. Rittich is still pretty young, and there are plenty of starting goalies—like Markstrom; like Kuemper—who struggled mightily with inconsistency when they were Rittich's age.

I continue to believe that he is a worthwhile investment to keep developing.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

It's not presumptuous to guess how we will respond. We watch the games, see the body language and have occasional insights into his personality.
"Guessing" as to how players will perform going forward is pretty much what fans are going to want to do. I think that's what you're doing in expressing positivity that he will continue to progress.

Markstrom and Kuemper may be relevant comparisons but both were playing NHL games at a much younger age than Rittich so I'd expect to see different progression. During their 27 year old seasons, both seemed to be on an upward trajectory on some not so good teams. I wasn't aware they struggled mightily with consistency at that point.

What the flames do with Rittich is one of the more interesting parts of the off season. As I've said before, he doesn't syet eem to have the mental make-up you'd like in a backup.

[Calgary4LIfe]

The more I think about Rittich, the more comfortable I am with him being a backup or even a 1B type, and seeing if he takes off.


Just because you have been given a chance doesn't mean you were 100% ready for that chance. You still sometimes have to develop while being given that chance, and take a step forward and 2 steps backward. It happens. It would obviously have been preferable if he took 2 steps forward without any steps backward, but it is what it is.



I have been on the fence about him for a while, including parts of the past season. However, there was that post measuring a bunch of goalies back a ways (I forgot who posted it up - sorry!), and Rittich's hard danger saves are really high up there. It is the rest of the shots that are mediocre. That makes sense to me thinking that those are the most 'fixable' parts of a goalie's game, no? That's where I see a goalie being great - can they make those game-changing (or game saving) saves.


Then there is of course giving up the bad goals. They are energy-draining, game-losing goals, especially when they come from initially stoppable saves. Can coaching and/or experience help Rittich there? It seems if he can improve in that area, then he would be a very good starter for the Flames... for any team in the NHL.


I am actually quite confused by who the Flames should be going after and who to stay away from. I don't think goaltending was a problem in Calgary this past season/playoffs, but I also don't think it was a strength either. This to me is the toughest area to figure out as far as what changes should or shouldn't happen this off-season.