2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I may look dumb in 5 years but I'm just playing the odds. Unless they are a surefire knockout, obvious pick, you don't draft goaltenders in the 1st round.

Just over half of the first round goalies taken in the first round since 2000 have ended up being starters/long time backups. About 50% shot you get a goalie who will play a notable amount of NHL games for you. Can you say the same for other first rounders? I actually don’t know the answer to that and am curious.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Just over half of the first round goalies taken in the first round since 2000 have ended up being starters/long time backups. About 50% shot you get a goalie who will play a notable amount of NHL games for you. Can you say the same for other first rounders? I actually don’t know the answer to that and am curious.

Picking 2012 at random, only 4-5 haven’t played much. All have played some.

[Robbob]

Not sure why people are so keen on throwing Hanifin in on some trades. I thought him and Andersson played really well as a paring. Both are 23 and signed long term. That is your potential 1st pairing for 1/2 a decade signed pretty cheap if they continue to develop. Plus you have Valimaki coming. Considering the exodus of Dmen this year and the age of Gio, I really don't think the Flames can afford to be trading Hanifin.

[David Struch]

I think this deal with the Coyotes could become a lot bigger than just Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Darcy Kuemper. Some other names in Arizona that I could see Brad Treliving potentially interested in include,

Phil Kessel
Derek Stepan
Rights to Taylor Hall
Jason Demers

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by David Struch

I think this deal with the Coyotes could become a lot bigger than just Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Darcy Kuemper. Some other names in Arizona that I could see Brad Treliving potentially interested in include,

Phil Kessel
Derek Stepan
Rights to Taylor Hall
Jason Demers

Please God no!

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by David Struch

I think this deal with the Coyotes could become a lot bigger than just Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Darcy Kuemper. Some other names in Arizona that I could see Brad Treliving potentially interested in include,

Phil Kessel
Derek Stepan
Rights to Taylor Hall
Jason Demers

Old overpaid vets is exactly what this team needs

[David Struch]

Who needs battle tested cagey vets like Radulov, Pavelski, Cogliano, Comeau, Perry, Sekera, Khudobin and Bishop.

[Oling_Roachinen]

First round goalie picks

2000 - DiPietro, Krahn
2001 - Leclaire, Blackburn, Bacashihua, Munro
2002 - Lehtonen, Ward, Toivonen
2003 - Fleury
2004 - Montoya, Dubnyk, Schwarz, Schneider
2005 - Price, Rask
2006 - Bernier, Helenius, Varlamov, Irving
2007 -
2008 - Pickard, McCollum
2009 -
2010 - Campbell, Visentin
2011 -
2012 - Vasilevskiy, Subban
2013 -
2014 -
2015 - Samsonov
2016 -
2017 - Oettinger
2018 -
2019 - Knight


Done VERY quickly but I think it's somewhat accurate. Actually a lot better group of names than I was expecting. I guess Irving and Krahn biased my opinion of first round goalies.

Still, what I think is obvious is that even the GM's have had a shift within the last 10 years. There's less goalies taken in the first round, but they are also being taken later. Price was the last goalie to be picked in the top 10 according to this list.

I bolded the goalies (up until Samsonov) who I think 'worked out' for their drafting team. Either getting in a decent amount of quality games with the team or being traded for quality (Schneider, Varlamov). DiPietro's injury and contract hurt the Islanders, but that's less to do with the drafting. Bernier was the hardest as he was a decent back-up for Quick but a 15 game goalie for the Kings versus the likes of Little (drafted directly behind him) and a poor return on the trade, I don't think he worked out.

With the 19th pick, if the best goalie is still available and the Flames scouts are high on him, I'm not sure it's as bad to take him than I use to think it was. I'll still scream at my screen but maybe a little less.

[Pellanor]

From earlier this summer there was an interesting article on The Athletic regarding goalie analytics. Here's a bit that touches on Rittich.

David Rittich was last in that category — 10 goals on 126 low-percentage shots. Binnington shuts the door when the team is up by a goal, doesn’t get rattled and doesn’t give up the bad goal where Rittich does. And that’s why I think it’s so important to look at score effects, because if you don’t know who’s performing when the game is tied, up by a goal or down by a goal, do you really know what you have and what you can count on in the postseason?

I feel that's further evidence that he needs to work on his mental game. He's great when he makes the Big Saves, but needs to be a bit more stable if we want to rely on him for the postseason.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by David Struch

I think this deal with the Coyotes could become a lot bigger than just Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Darcy Kuemper. Some other names in Arizona that I could see Brad Treliving potentially interested in include,

Phil Kessel
Derek Stepan
Rights to Taylor Hall
Jason Demers

I would think they would have interest in

Keller, Chychrin, Dvorak before those other vets.

If there is a big pre draft trade that happens I could see Taylor Hall’s rights thrown in and maybe a negotiated deal so they can focus on moving Gaudreau for a futures based return

[dammage79]

Man, if Askarov is there at 19 you have to take him...don't you?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

...With the 19th pick, if the best goalie is still available and the Flames scouts are high on him, I'm not sure it's as bad to take him than I use to think it was. I'll still scream at my screen but maybe a little less.

This year, yes. Askerov looks like a potentially game-breaking goalie, but it is the sort of policy that needs to be reviewed from one year to the next.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by David Struch

I think this deal with the Coyotes could become a lot bigger than just Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Darcy Kuemper. Some other names in Arizona that I could see Brad Treliving potentially interested in include,

Phil Kessel
Derek Stepan
Rights to Taylor Hall
Jason Demers

Want no part of Stepan or Kessel.

But Demers is a guy that wouldn't be the worst case scenario if he's a cap dump from Arizona's side.

RD, only has 1 year at $4M left, and can still eat minutes on the blueline (played top 4 in Arizona).

Honestly if they can't sign Demelo or somebody like that to a reasonable deal to help fill out our d-pairings then I'd be fine with Demers.

Not a guy I'm giving up anything of value for, but the type of stop gap that wouldn't be the worst option for this team as a RH d-man for the bottom pair that could step into the top 4 if needed.

I remember actually advocating that the team should have gotten Demers as the trade target the off-season we traded for Hamonic instead, since it was rumored Florida was shopping him as a cap dump at that draft.

Hamonic for 2018 1st, 2018 2nd, 2019 2nd (June 24th 2017)

Demers for McGinn (Sept 17 2017)

Know which one of those two trades I would have rather made.

[FlamesFanTrev]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

The knowledge that the organization doesn’t have confidence in him, can only hurt his confidence in himself.

Or he can go an prove that he's a gamer and rise to the challenge. It's in his hands.

[dammage79]

After watching Askarov highlights, he's explosive like wolf and parsons. Crazy fast and flexible. Only difference? Askarov is 6'3 and catches right.

Don't much like backwards catching goalies but you just can't pass that up at 19.

Remember Reto Berra? When he slid into the corner pushing off to cross his crease? Askarov pushes as hard but slides like he is on sandpaper. Doesn't drift off into the atmosphere.

Bonus

[bax]

I think it's a bit of a pipe dream to grab Askarov anyways. I think one of NJ, Minny, Carolina, or Edmonton will take him.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by bax

I think it's a bit of a pipe dream to grab Askarov anyways. I think one of NJ, Minny, Carolina, or Edmonton will take him.

Obviously. Even Knight last year wasn't as highly touted and he went 15th.

But for the sake of conversation, in the wildly unlikely scenario he drops to 19, I think the team at the table needs to take a good long think on it.

I think his NHL timetable is 2 years. Also depending on how long he chooses to stay in Russia.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Not sure why people are so keen on throwing Hanifin in on some trades. I thought him and Andersson played really well as a paring. Both are 23 and signed long term. That is your potential 1st pairing for 1/2 a decade signed pretty cheap if they continue to develop. Plus you have Valimaki coming. Considering the exodus of Dmen this year and the age of Gio, I really don't think the Flames can afford to be trading Hanifin.

Really good point- Hanifin and Andersson look poised to provide solid secondary minutes at an absolute minimum. I think it should be expected that they transition to the top pairing this season and Gio has his minuted reduced.

As he continues to age he will provide much more value playing 18-20 minutes a night than he will playing 23-25 minutes.

[TOfan]

Elliot stirs the pot and the mob comes out. Always get a chuckle reading the ‘I’m going to lose it’ posts.

Relax, sheeple.

[Pellanor]

Another great Valiquette article on The Athletic, about goal scoring in the playoffs. It also touches on Rittich a couple times.

What’s it like for goalies to face a lefty shooter versus a righty? David Rittich came to the top of the page here. Has a really good time against lefties but can’t stop righties. His goal differential is 22 (he stops 10 more goals than expected against lefties and gives up 12 more than he should versus righties). You’re asking yourself why. Does it have to do with the way the puck is coming off the stick from that angle? Does it have to do with him lining up to the body more than the puck?

So, there’s something in the data that points to goalies by age being able to stop the puck more frequently when they have clear sight versus older goalies. I looked at the bottom of my list of goalies who had clear vision for more than half a second on shots from the slot — the older guys were all at the bottom. And good goalies, too.

Corey Crawford had a really good year, but this is one aspect he had difficulty with. He was last on the list having faced a minimum of 75 chances. Rittich is only 28, but he was down the list, too. (Henrik) Lundqvist is there, Mike Smith, Marc-Andre Fleury, (Craig) Anderson — all the older guys at the bottom of this list. It makes you wonder if there’s more to it, where they have to develop their eyes as goalies as they age.

There's also some interesting info about the Flames and cross ice passes below the hash marks, but I don't want to share too much of the article.