08-18-2020, 11:41 AM
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#2481
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Lifetime In Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Can Trump win without Florida? That seems very difficult.
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I have zero faith that Florida won’t be red. Clearly they don’t give a damn about COVID and Trump will let them do whatever the hell they like. Never trust Florida.
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08-18-2020, 11:46 AM
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#2482
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Decent chance Trump may have botched Florida. I think he forgot (or didn't know) that there are actually old people in Florida who don't live at the Villages (which I imagine will become the "Trump Villages" when he's done). His "Corona isn't real, and if it is who cares if old people die" approach wasn't very well thought out.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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08-18-2020, 11:58 AM
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#2483
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Pickle Jar Lake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Can Trump win without Florida? That seems very difficult.
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On the map you can click on all the brown states and make them red. Even with Florida, Trump doesn't get enough. Add Nevada and you get a tie.
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08-18-2020, 12:19 PM
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#2484
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Franchise Player
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I don't think Nevada does it, that still gets me 272-268 for Biden. I think it's Minnesota, Wisconsin or Michigan, just like last time. Or Virigina / Pennsylvania I guess but those seems less soft.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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08-18-2020, 12:20 PM
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#2485
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Virginia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
On the map you can click on all the brown states and make them red. Even with Florida, Trump doesn't get enough. Add Nevada and you get a tie.
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If Trump loses Florida, but keeps every state he won in 2016, he wins.
I have to think Wisconsin, PA and Michigan are locks for Biden unless something crazy happens in the next couple months, and the way 2020 is going, crazy things will happen!
Those 3 states are all that matter and have voted blue in every 2000s presidential election except for the last one.
I can't see Trump picking up a new state, so if he can't win those, he has no path.
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08-18-2020, 12:21 PM
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#2486
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Vancouver
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The scary thing is that if Trump becomes desperate, I wouldn't put it past him (or his pal Putin) to manufacture an international crisis. Americans love war time presidents.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
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08-18-2020, 12:22 PM
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#2487
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Franchise Player
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Does running a bunch of ads with Kasich in them, with stuff from yesterday, help in Ohio? This seems to suggest he was generally popular. I don't think him being at the DNC helped much in terms of the convention but they might be able to keep using that material in bits and pieces.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-3503.html
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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08-18-2020, 12:23 PM
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#2488
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Pickle Jar Lake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
The scary thing is that if Trump becomes desperate, I wouldn't put it past him (or his pal Putin) to manufacture an international crisis. Americans love war time presidents.
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I just noticed this...palputin ...Palpatine. Coincidence? Someone get Crunch in here.
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08-18-2020, 12:25 PM
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#2489
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Franchise Player
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If Putin is Palpatine, Trump is his lapdog, but isn't cool enough to be Darth Vader. Trump is Jabba the Hutt.
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08-18-2020, 12:30 PM
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#2490
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: YSJ (1979-2002) -> YYC (2002-2022) -> YVR (2022-present)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
If Putin is Palpatine, Trump is his lapdog, but isn't cool enough to be Darth Vader. Trump is Jabba the Hutt.
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In the Star Wars prequels, Palpatine took advantage of an easily-influenced fool to consolidate his power and end democracy. In this metaphor, Trump is Jar-Jar Binks.
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08-18-2020, 12:37 PM
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#2491
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
If Putin is Palpatine, Trump is his lapdog, but isn't cool enough to be Darth Vader. Trump is Jabba the Hutt.
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Jabba was too competent and cunning for Trump.
Trump is more like Salacious B. Crumb to the GOP's Jabba.
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08-18-2020, 01:13 PM
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#2492
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Trump's popularity has crept back up to 42% since going down, so even a pandemic can't have a permanent impact on it.
538 has the race almost exactly where it was election night despite everything. And races always narrow as they get closer to the election date.
Throw in a surge in virus cases and suppression of mail in voting and it's not difficult to see Trump winning. At all.
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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08-18-2020, 02:38 PM
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#2493
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Calgary
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08-18-2020, 02:51 PM
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#2495
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: the dark side of Sesame Street
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
In the Star Wars prequels, Palpatine took advantage of an easily-influenced fool to consolidate his power and end democracy. In this metaphor, Trump is Jar-Jar Binks.
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the internet is a strange and wonderful thing:
__________________
"If Javex is your muse…then dive in buddy"
- Surferguy
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08-18-2020, 03:12 PM
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#2496
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PsYcNeT
Knowing BoLevi, I'm assuming he meant landslide *for* Trump.
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Nope, I meant I think she would win.
The Democrats have decided to do everything in their power to make this election closer than it needs to be.
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08-18-2020, 03:14 PM
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#2497
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
He has to figure out if she's the right kind of Black before he decides what he meant.
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I do find it strange that I'm on of the few (only?) people on this sub happy to recognize the diversity within the black population of the US.
Even Biden doesn't!
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08-18-2020, 03:20 PM
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#2498
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Deep South
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
Trump's popularity has crept back up to 42% since going down, so even a pandemic can't have a permanent impact on it.
538 has the race almost exactly where it was election night despite everything. And races always narrow as they get closer to the election date.
Throw in a surge in virus cases and suppression of mail in voting and it's not difficult to see Trump winning. At all.
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Important to note with 538 that their numbers reflect the uncertainty between now and election date. They did say with the current poll numbers Biden is favoured 90/10 (if the election were held tomorrow for example), but their forecast is only 70/30 right now because lots can happen between now and election day.
__________________
Much like a sports ticker, you may feel obligated to read this
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08-18-2020, 04:27 PM
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#2499
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Franchise Player
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Wrong thread
Last edited by MoneyGuy; 08-18-2020 at 04:30 PM.
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08-18-2020, 06:29 PM
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#2500
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Russia meddled on Trump’s behalf in 2016, bipartisan Senate intelligence report concludes
Senate committee calls its 1,300-plus-page report the most comprehensive description to date of Russia’s activities and the threat they posed, overshadowing even the Mueller report
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ru...des-2020-08-18
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