[PGT] Flames win Game 1 vs Dallas 3-2

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

That may be true but Lindholm and Gaudreau are also both bottom five among forwards IN THE LEAGUE in terms of xGF%, and that's with significantly more ice time than those around them.

The top line is clearly competing extremely hard... It doesn't change the fact that they are still getting heavily outplayed, and have been extremely fortunate not to have hurt the team to this point.

You're not wrong. They both look quite lost in the offensive zone at the moment.

Lets hope the damn breaks for them soon.

Till then, lock down that D zone play and I won't get too upset!

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

That may be true but Lindholm and Gaudreau are also both bottom five among forwards IN THE LEAGUE in terms of xGF%, and that's with significantly more ice time than those around them.

The top line is clearly competing extremely hard... It doesn't change the fact that they are still getting heavily outplayed, and have been extremely fortunate not to have hurt the team to this point.

Yeah, I haven't seen it that way at all.

They're not giving up ten bellers every odd shift. They're not making talbot stand on his head. They're actually doing pretty well defensively.

Maybe watch the game rather than keeping your eyes on the fancy stats sheet.

[flylock shox]

If Ward's strategy is to use our top line to neutralize the other team's offence while they're on the ice - rather than contributing the bulk of the Flames' scoring - then it's a great tactic for a number of reasons.

It stops Johnny from trying too hard on offence, turning the puck over and giving up opportunities.

It stops the rest of the team from relying on the top line for scoring, encouraging them to contribute offensively.

It allows the Flames to play a more controlled game, scoring opportunistically and on the PP.

It eliminates any idea of "star players" and "everyone else" in favour of a solid team where every member has an equally valuable role to play.

I don't think it's a solution for every team, but it's looking like a good one for the Flames. They haven't looked this resilient since the first half of the regular season where they won the West. Moreover, I think it will work really well against a team like Dallas which has quite a bit of individual firepower, but is too loosey-goosey as a team. Shut down their stars (no pun intended) and capitalize on opportunities given up by Dallas' loose play, and the Flames should win this series.

[ComixZone]

The problem is that Dallas started icing Comeau against Johnny.

So our 1st is playing in the defensive zone against their 4th line. That's a match-up that they should pounce on and attack. That right there is a match-up you can expose and win a series on.

No matter the deployment, the Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm line has to produce on the PP and be better 5 on 5.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

No matter the deployment, the Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm line has to produce on the PP and be better 5 on 5.

They had a 10-bell chance (Monahan) on the only PP of the game, and then the second unit came out and scored. I'd say they did pretty well on the PP at least.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Yeah, I haven't seen it that way at all.

They're not giving up ten bellers every odd shift. They're not making talbot stand on his head. They're actually doing pretty well defensively.

Maybe watch the game rather than keeping your eyes on the fancy stats sheet.

I watch every game very intently. Thanks though.

The line has been outplayed heavily 5 on 5. Yes, they have done well to limit the high danger chances against (which I think Monahan should be given far greater credit for than he is) but they are still flirting with danger in that respect on a game to game, shift to shift basis.

As I mentioned earlier neither Johhny nor Elias have been on the ice for a high danger chance for in 5 games.. Lindholm only has 14 scoring chances total in 5 games.. to put that into perspective Jankowski has 12 in three games with far less ice time and significantly less talent around him.

It's not a strategy that will pay off long term, especially when/if we matchup to a team that can score in bunches.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

That may be true but Lindholm and Gaudreau are also both bottom five among forwards IN THE LEAGUE in terms of xGF%, and that's with significantly more ice time than those around them.

The top line is clearly competing extremely hard... It doesn't change the fact that they are still getting heavily outplayed, and have been extremely fortunate not to have hurt the team to this point.

This is where I think xGF% can be a bit misleading though since it has been such low event hockey.

They are poor at 40% but that different is only .27 goals for vs against - not really hurting them too much because they have been giving up so little defensively.

xGF: 0.78
xGA: 1.15

They could play higher event hockey and push their xGF% to 45% for example but maybe the team is actually worse off.

Something like below would be ~45% xGF, but the team would still be a delta of .3 xG.

xGF: 1.2
xGA: 1.5

So really I'm okay with the first line playing really low event "safe" hockey as long as they are doing it with defensive zone deployment and mostly against the other teams top 6, as they were doing in the Qualification round.

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The problem is that Dallas started icing Comeau against Johnny.

So our 1st is playing in the defensive zone against their 4th line. That's a match-up that they should pounce on and attack. That right there is a match-up you can expose and win a series on.

No matter the deployment, the Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm line has to produce on the PP and be better 5 on 5.

Yeah this was the problem yesterday. Against the Jets the deployment was mostly against the Jets top 6. Yesterday the Stars 4th line was taking those offensive zone draws against the Flames first line, the Flames top line need to use those opportunities to generate offense.

Here is the ice time for the top line yesterday against the Stars top 4 centers (at least as they were listed on the pre-game lines):

Hintz: 0:12
Pavelski: 4:37
Seguin: 0:52
Faksa: 8:09

So problem was most of the TOI was against the Faksa line, which is a matchup they need to take better advantage of than they were able to yesterday.

CF: 11
CA: 17

HDCF: 0
HDCA: 0

SCF: 4
SCA: 2

xGF: 0.16
xGA: 0.16

Zone Starts: 33.3%

So heavy defensive zone deployment, gave up absolutely nothing in terms of scoring chances or high danger chances, and didn't hurt the team. Interestingly enough they actually dominated the Pavekslki line where they had a couple of offensive zone starts (78% CF), but struggled against the Faksa line against whom they had mostly d-zone starts (21.4% CF).

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The problem is that Dallas started icing Comeau against Johnny.

So our 1st is playing in the defensive zone against their 4th line. That's a match-up that they should pounce on and attack. That right there is a match-up you can expose and win a series on.

No matter the deployment, the Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm line has to produce on the PP and be better 5 on 5.

Its one game.

Monahan led the team in points last series.

Lindholm had some big goals. Gaudreau was still 0.75 PPG.

Wins come in a variety of shapes and forms. This one just happened to be the Dube Show. Plenty of series for them to show their jam. Chances are they'll put up a multi point game somewhere to offset game 1.

Let's give them a little rope to figure it out.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

It's not a strategy that will pay off long term, especially when/if we matchup to a team that can score in bunches.

I agree the top line has more to offer offensively, and hope we see it in game two.

That said, since Burke was here the Flames have always talked about needing to win different kinds of series in different ways.

If they were to play Tampa we'd see a more high scoring game with firepower matching up against firepower, but with Dallas the blueprint seems to be tight checking / win through depth + specialty teams.

[Enoch Root]

One stat that I like to follow is the total goals scored, vs the total goals given up. And, based on my unofficial count, the Flames have won that statistical battle in 4 of the 5 games so far.

I have always found this to be a good recipe for success.

[Robbob]

Exactly, the same conversation about the first line was had last series. They will be fine.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Not worried about the first line. As we saw against Winnipeg they will get their points throughout the series. The fact that they aren't a liability is exactly how they have to play.

Once they start to key on the Lucic-Bennett-Dube line more, that will open things up for the first line a bit.

[AC]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Lindholm only has 14 scoring chances total in 5 games.. to put that into perspective Jankowski has 12 in three games with far less ice time and significantly less talent around him.

What scoring chances has Janko had? I honestly can't remember one and I've recently gone through each game pulling highlights.

[Enoch Root]

I don't think Jankowski has touched the puck 12 times in the offensive zone, never mind have 12 scoring chances.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by AC

What scoring chances has Janko had? I honestly can't remember one and I've recently gone through each game pulling highlights.

Sorry. I worded that incorrectly. Those are not individual totals, they are on ice totals.

Lindholm has been on the ice for a total of 14 scoring chances for in 5 games (zero high danger).
Jankowski has been on the ice for 12 scoring chances for in 3 games. (five high danger)

[FlamesAddiction]

Monahan had chances last night. It is funny that he led the team in points the last series, but no one really talked about him.

I do wish the top line had a little more jam to be honest. It's probably not the best time to be experimenting, but I would love to see what a Tkachuk-Monahan-Lindholm line could do more often.

[AustinL_NHL]

Yea, it's great to see the first line holding their own defensively and giving up very little, but as little as they're giving up, they're generating even less.

Among players who've played a minimum 3 games, they rank 4th last (Lindholm), 6th last (Gaudreau), and 42nd last (Monahan) in xGF/60. That's among 272 forwards.

Among players still in the Playoffs, they rank dead last (Lindholm), 2nd last (Gaudreau), and 26th last.

That's brutal.

It's like the coaches know they can't do anything offensively in the Playoffs 5v5 so they told them to literally only care about defense and try to do their offensive work on the PP.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Its one game.

Monahan led the team in points last series.

Lindholm had some big goals. Gaudreau was still 0.75 PPG.

Wins come in a variety of shapes and forms. This one just happened to be the Dube Show. Plenty of series for them to show their jam. Chances are they'll put up a multi point game somewhere to offset game 1.

Let's give them a little rope to figure it out.

This.

Let's also remember that stats only start being really meaningful with big enough numbers. Staring at a one lines stats in one game is not informative, even though it's very tempting to think so.

[PepsiFree]

And yet we're still winning a lot more than we're losing. I get the concern, but whatever is happening seems to be working. I don't care if Gaudreau gets 5 points a game or 0. If the Flames win, I'm good.

Maybe you make the argument that the offensive contributions from the 3rd line aren't sustainable. I haven't seen it, but if it isn't, it's about as unsustainable as the 1st line's continued lack of contributions.

We're 5-1 and people are worried about the top line. Defence is as important as offence, so as long as they have one of those covered, I don't see an issue.

[BigErnSalute_16]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Rasmus Andersson is so awesome. He’s honestly unreal. Might be one of if not my favourite Flame right now.

Honestly, both of these might be controversial but I think he's the best Dman on the flames right now and I put him in the same category as Makar and Hughes.

Points aren't quite there yet but every other metric is right there, a little more pp time next season and I think we see him really pop into a #1