AltaGuy has a magnetic personality and exudes positive energy, which is infectious to those around him. He has an unparalleled ability to communicate with people, whether he is speaking to a room of three or an arena of 30,000.
Join Date: Jun 2007
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As with the 2018 midterms, the Democratic base is still pretty fired up, likely even more so than in 2018. The organizers, campaigners, fundraisers, etc are all way more engaged right now than they were in 2016, especially with the protest movement ongoing.
Turnout seems unlikely to be a problem without some seriously nefarious efforts by the GOP. Enthusiasm might not be super high for Biden, but the base seems far more engaged - which definitely led to good things in the midterms for Democrats.
As with the 2018 midterms, the Democratic base is still pretty fired up, likely even more so than in 2018. The organizers, campaigners, fundraisers, etc are all way more engaged right now than they were in 2016, especially with the protest movement ongoing.
Turnout seems unlikely to be a problem without some seriously nefarious efforts by the GOP. Enthusiasm might not be super high for Biden, but the base seems far more engaged - which definitely led to good things in the midterms for Democrats.
In Louisville, Kentucky the GOP have manipulated things so there's only a single polling station for 600k+ voters in predominately black county. They've been pulling these kinda stunts for years now and are getting good it.
Expect GOP shenanigans, just a matter of how much they affect the vote. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-pri...ucky-1.5623343
lol yes right. Check the numbers. With Trump not in it this is an absolute wildcard. As it is there is absolutely no guarantee. It's like people have forgotten where Clinton was tracking in the polls right up until November.
I am fully aware...Pence would get absolutely crushed...worse than Trump
Hillary had a slight lead within the margin of error, she was also under investigation by the FBI. The media was pretty misleading about Hillary's chances if you look back at scientific sites like 538 they had it much closer. What is going on right now is much different.
Biden polled far better than any dem candidate so if he loses to Trump/other its safe to assume anyone else would also lose.
What is his game? I don't necessarily give creedence to the theory that he's intentionally tanking his campaign because he doesn't want a second term but he isn't trying particularly hard (or at all) to win new voters. A normal politician in an upcoming election would move to the centre a bit, throw some bones to some potential fence sitting votes or just pay insincere lip service. This guy is actively antagonizing those voters and only appealing to his die hards who are going to vote for him anyway but won't get him across the line. It's bizarre and I'm surprised that the GOP seem fine with it.
No one with a functioning brain can realistically not know that Trump is a traitor to his country, and yet somewhere between 35 and 40% of that country will still vote for him.
The level of IQ in the US is truly astounding.
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What is his game? I don't necessarily give creedence to the theory that he's intentionally tanking his campaign because he doesn't want a second term but he isn't trying particularly hard (or at all) to win new voters. A normal politician in an upcoming election would move to the centre a bit, throw some bones to some potential fence sitting votes or just pay insincere lip service. This guy is actively antagonizing those voters and only appealing to his die hards who are going to vote for him anyway but won't get him across the line. It's bizarre and I'm surprised that the GOP seem fine with it.
He hasnt a clue what else to do, this is all he knows, the GOP and Trump was just counting on a good economy carrying them through, they never had a plan B, it was always 'count on angry older white folks turning out in droves while keeping the independents and moderates happy enough they dont bother voting either way'.
What is his game? I don't necessarily give creedence to the theory that he's intentionally tanking his campaign because he doesn't want a second term but he isn't trying particularly hard (or at all) to win new voters. A normal politician in an upcoming election would move to the centre a bit, throw some bones to some potential fence sitting votes or just pay insincere lip service. This guy is actively antagonizing those voters and only appealing to his die hards who are going to vote for him anyway but won't get him across the line. It's bizarre and I'm surprised that the GOP seem fine with it.
If you look at Trump as a performance artist, rather than as a politician, I think you'd have to conclude that: (1) he's probably the best or most effective performance artist of all time; (2) there's only so long even the best performance can last before it gets old or is revealed for the act that it is.
When I sit back and look at Trump's recent performances - particularly the ones where he seems to be giving it less than 100% - I'm actually in awe of how he's managed to "bring it" effectively for so long, and to achieve the response from his supporters that he's managed to achieve. I have a hard time thinking of any act that could be played on repeat for 5 years without - for at least a third of people - getting really tired. He's managed to manufacture outrage and scandals that have kept the public enthralled for years.
Now, I think the act is simply starting to - finally - wear thin. I don't think it's a matter of him giving up, or even running out of steam, so much as he's starting to recognize that it's just not working for him anymore. And if the fun's over, and even the rallies aren't fun for him, even he will get bored with - or tired of - trying to maintain the pretense.
We'll see if that keeps up as the election nears though. He loves a fight, and much as Biden has been rope-a-doping for the last few months, eventually he'll have to start punching, which will likely get Trump ginned up to punch back and put on a show.
TLDR: I don't think he's at all inclined to give up, but I do think his one-trick pony is wearing out.
The incompetency of Trump and his administration has completely come to light because of the crappy handling of the pandemic and him not wanting to even deal was the the protests. A lot of Americans could tolerate his idiocy when it doesn't affect them, but those two events are hurting absolutely everyone.
Of course the economy is the other matter that goes hand in hand with the pandemic, and the only thing that could have given him a chance to win. He overheated it with tax cuts and huge deficits before the pandemic, and it's going to be a huge mess for anyone to clean up in the next term.
Does seem like we may be hitting a tipping point with Trump where people have just decided they are sick of him. The approval and disapproval rates have been going in the wrong direction for months now.
TRUMP: "We're heading back in a very strong fashion, with a V. And I think we're going to be very good with the coronavirus. I think at some point that's going to sort of just disappear, I hope."
BLAKE BURMAN: "You still believe so? Disappear?"
TRUMP: "Well I do, I do. Yeah sure, at some point. And I think we're going to have a vaccine very soon too."
