American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think the problem with the hypothetical "Trump drops out, Biden is screwed" theory is who can the GOP run? Romney? The cult will never back him. Pence? The Never Trumpers won't back him as an enabler. Nikki Haley? The woman problem and the cult mostly hates her. Matt Gaetz or Jim Jordan? Lol. Ivanka? Cult hates her and Jared. Junior or Eric? Lightweights who couldn't survive an election. If there were some magic candidate waiting in the wings maybe there'd be hope if Trump bails. But realistically he's probably still their best horse at this point given the corner they've back themselves into.

[activeStick]

Amy McGrath has officially won the Kentucky Senate Primary beating Booker by 15k votes. She's in tough against Mitch in November but wouldn't that be something?

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think the problem with the hypothetical "Trump drops out, Biden is screwed" theory is who can the GOP run? Romney? The cult will never back him. Pence? The Never Trumpers won't back him as an enabler. Nikki Haley? The woman problem and the cult mostly hates her. Matt Gaetz or Jim Jordan? Lol. Ivanka? Cult hates her and Jared. Junior or Eric? Lightweights who couldn't survive an election. If there were some magic candidate waiting in the wings maybe there'd be hope if Trump bails. But realistically he's probably still their best horse at this point given the corner they've back themselves into.

The cult hates Jared and Ivanka? Wow. I have something in common with them.

[octothorp]

I think one big thing that keeps Trump from dropping out (at least before the convention) is this: the only thing that he would hate more than losing to Biden, would be Republicans choosing a never-Trumper like Romney or Kasich. That would be a rejection of Trumpism within the GOP. I could see him trying to make a deal with the GOP establishment that he steps down if he's able to choose his replacement, but I can't see him proposing someone who'd be electable... it would be someone ideologically similar but without the cult of personality.

And that's not something the GOP establishment could promise anyway (at least before the convention), as it would go to an open convention and there'd be a long list of candidates who see this as a low-pressure opportunity to pitch a 2024 trial balloon, and others who just see it as a chance to push their own media brand. If Trump didn't announce he was resigning until after the convention, that would create the potential for him and the RNC to hand-pick his successor, but again I can't see them agreeing on a candidate.

[activeStick]

Errr... The intensity of these ads are increasing exponentially.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1278028522863427584

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

From the pew poll above



Republican turn out might suffer without Trump but 2/3rds of Biden voters are voting against Trump rather than for Biden. That’s a concerning number in the what if Trump drops out scenarios

So you think they just won't vote if its Pence? The guy who refuses to say black lives matter and has defended Trump at every turn?

Biden would absolutely destroy Pence...even worse than Trump.

I think there is a pretty good chance Biden gets the most votes in history

[calgarybornnraised]

[QUOTE=wittynickname;7492014]You really don't understand how much people hated Hillary Clinton, do you? Watch a Trump speech from 2016, when he brought up Hillary the reaction was loud and intense. Nothing these white dudes hate more than a woman telling them what to do. If you watch him mocking Biden now, the intense hatred just isn't there.

Plenty of Republicans who weren't Trump fans voted for him because they hated Hillary that much. They do not have that fervor against Biden that they did against Hillary. This country is just as sexist as it is racist.

I'm not saying this is an easy win for Biden, make no mistake. But I think the hatred of Hillary really gets downplayed here. If she had the same credentials, the same history, etc, but she was a man? I would bet good money she'd have beat Trump for the EC and not just the popular vote


Nm



Well if Florida keeps going on the track they are with COVID, there might not be many seniors left by November to vote for Trump.[

[Acey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Vs. Pence? lol yeah right

lol yes right. Check the numbers. With Trump not in it this is an absolute wildcard. As it is there is absolutely no guarantee. It's like people have forgotten where Clinton was tracking in the polls right up until November.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think the problem with the hypothetical "Trump drops out, Biden is screwed" theory is who can the GOP run? Romney? The cult will never back him. Pence? The Never Trumpers won't back him as an enabler.

To clarify, I think Trump dying vs dropping out are quite different scenarios and my comments were in reference to the former.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Acey

lol yes right. Check the numbers. With Trump not in it this is an absolute wildcard. As it is there is absolutely no guarantee. It's like people have forgotten where Clinton was tracking in the polls right up until November.

There was always a worry with Clinton that a lot of Democrats would stay home, despite her numbers.

Registered voters who didn’t vote on Election Day in November were more Democratic-leaning than the registered voters who turned out, according to a post-election poll from SurveyMonkey, shared with FiveThirtyEight. In fact, Donald Trump probably would have lost to Hillary Clinton had Republican- and Democratic-leaning registered voters cast ballots at equal rates.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-the-election/


That's not happening this time around. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Republicans stay home, there are plenty of them who despise Trump.

[direwolf]

Lol, wtf??

https://twitter.com/user/status/1277977452187275266

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Lol, wtf??

https://twitter.com/user/status/1277977452187275266

The Lone Warrior

The Lone Warrior chronicles the journey of Hanshiro, a master samurai who carries the most coveted weapon in all of Japan - a legendary sword that prevents its owner from dying in combat. For Hanshiro however, this extraordinary gift came with a price. The sword possesses a curse that deprives him from achieving any joy or honor from fighting, and has caused him to resign from the samurai lifestyle and become a vagrant traveler. When Dorin Munesuke, a prominent samurai lord, discovers Hanshiro's whereabouts and beckons him to fight once more, bloody conflict erupts between the two men to determine if Hanshiro will regain his honor.

I can understand the reference. I wonder what Trump's legendary sword is? It sure seems to protect him from everything.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Lol, wtf??

https://twitter.com/user/status/1277977452187275266

Is this more of his qanon signaling crap?

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I wonder what Trump's legendary sword is? It sure seems to protect him from everything.

His absolute stupidity. He’s too dumb to know what he is doing and thus can’t be held responsible for his actions, and he is so dumb that he can be used by others to achieve their intended ends.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GGG

Republican turn out might suffer without Trump but 2/3rds of Biden voters are voting against Trump rather than for Biden. That’s a concerning number in the what if Trump drops out scenarios

That's your interpretation of the response. Another interpretation is "I'm voting for a Democrat - any Democrat - before I vote for Trump or any Republican."

I think the polling should have had a component focused on Republican versus Democrat rather than just Biden versus Trump. Of course Biden is going to destroy Trump on almost every measure. Almost every Democrat would. It would have been much better and informative to ask the same questions with two other variables in play, say Pence versus Harris. That would have tested the resolve of the voter and shifted it away from "anti" votes. Also would have given a lot more clarity on the temperature of the people in regards to their true displeasure with Republicans and Republican policy. Polls should always ask questions that change the perspective on the issue being examined and then provide extra dimensions on that data for examination. I think Pew came up a little short with this tool and data collected.

[Khel]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Lol, wtf??

https://twitter.com/user/status/1277977452187275266

Probably referencing that he is the only one still not wearing a mask. What a moron.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think the problem with the hypothetical "Trump drops out, Biden is screwed" theory is who can the GOP run? Romney? The cult will never back him. Pence? The Never Trumpers won't back him as an enabler. Nikki Haley? The woman problem and the cult mostly hates her. Matt Gaetz or Jim Jordan? Lol. Ivanka? Cult hates her and Jared. Junior or Eric? Lightweights who couldn't survive an election. If there were some magic candidate waiting in the wings maybe there'd be hope if Trump bails. But realistically he's probably still their best horse at this point given the corner they've back themselves into.

Romney vs Biden is probably pretty close. In my eyes, Romney is about 1000x less worse of a president than Trump, so I could probably live with that.

I don't think full on Tea Partier, or Evangical has a chance at winning Nationally. Trump won by getting support of both those groups while tacking on some working-class labor support. I don't think anyone else can do that.

[OMG!WTF!]

Oh now you've crossed a line. New chant/slogan...Fifth Ave Matters!

NYC is cutting Police $’s by ONE BILLION DOLLARS, and yet the @NYCMayor is going to paint a big, expensive, yellow Black Lives Matter sign on Fifth Avenue, denigrating this luxury Avenue. This will further antagonize New York’s Finest, who LOVE New York

Ummm, so if you've never seen it before....

Biden was asked questions at his so-called Press Conference yesterday where he read the answers from a teleprompter. That means he was given the questions, just like Crooked Hillary. Never have seen this before!

...but then you saw it before...did you ever really see it in the first place?

[Maritime Q-Scout]

The thing with the vote for Biden or against Trump is that it doesn't take vote against GOP into consideration or vote Democrat.

Maybe I wanted Warren for President, the nominee is Biden. Do I want to vote for Joe? Maybe not. But I'm definitely not voting Trump.

The thing with that scenario is I'm voting for the D regardless. Just because I'm not voting for Biden doesn't mean no Trump is a Republican vote.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

The thing with the vote for Biden or against Trump is that it doesn't take vote against GOP into consideration or vote Democrat.

Maybe I wanted Warren for President, the nominee is Biden. Do I want to vote for Joe? Maybe not. But I'm definitely not voting Trump.

The thing with that scenario is I'm voting for the D regardless. Just because I'm not voting for Biden doesn't mean no Trump is a Republican vote.

This is assuming that everyone who wanted to vote for X will still bother to vote at all.