American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November - Page 30 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Senator Clay Davis · 06-30-2020, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

That isn’t good.

Why's that? A vote against Trump counts the same as a vote for Biden. I realize the argument is enthusiasm, but there is a significant amount of people who have never been more enthusiastic to do anything as they are to see Trump go down in flames.

PsYcNeT · 06-30-2020, 01:27 PM

I guess it depends. Who is more motivated to stand in a 6 hour line due to the GOP closing polling stations in 90% of the county, someone who loves Joe Biden (lol) or someone who hates Trump?

Scroopy Noopers · 06-30-2020, 01:29 PM

Just concerned about low voter turn out, as that’s his only chance. And that chance is noticeably slim. If the only reason is the remove the guy, who you think is going to easily be removed anyway... are you getting off your couch?

Hemi-Cuda · 06-30-2020, 01:30 PM

If Biden wins, he will have to agree not to run for re-election in 2024 for the Democrats to have any hope of actually keeping power long enough to start fixing the mess that Trump will leave

troutman · 06-30-2020, 01:30 PM

It might be good - if pollsters like Bitecofer are correct, hate is the most powerful motivator to get the vote out. Negative Partisanship.

PepsiFree · 06-30-2020, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Just concerned about low voter turn out, as that’s his only chance. And that chance is noticeably slim. If the only reason is the remove the guy, who you think is going to easily be removed anyway... are you getting off your couch?

I think it's probably on point with what troutman posted.

It's probably more likely that you get off your couch to change the leader when you hate them, versus just liking the other guy more.

Fuzz · 06-30-2020, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutman

You could probably swap Trump for Hillary, and Biden for Trump, and the numbers would look the same for the 2016 election. So "not good" doesn't compute, it's how Trump got in.

Senator Clay Davis · 06-30-2020, 01:38 PM

I mean the last three Alberta elections were won by hating the other party more. Same in the last federal election. We live in the hate politics era right now.

Fuzz · 06-30-2020, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I mean the last three Alberta elections were won by hating the other party more. Same in the last federal election. We live in the hate politics era right now.

"Hate voting". I'm in.

JohnnyB · 06-30-2020, 01:56 PM

I still think a big unanswered question is to what extent the potential VP pick of a progressive woman of colour will swing that hate vote. How many will vote against Trump for a white guy like Biden, but would vote for Trump against a progressive WOC out of even stronger hate?

I imagine the Dems recognize Trump is waiting to attack on this, so they are strategically waiting to make that pick and are taking away time from the hateful messaging they will face.

The Yen Man · 06-30-2020, 01:58 PM

It could be that the long term Republican party strategy is to let Trump destroy as much as he can before they lose this term to the Democrats. Lets be honest, whoever is running the country for the next 4 years is in for a shirtshow of a term. Maybe they are secretly conceding this term and going for it next term.

McConnell already put through most of the changes the party wanted and appointed a ton of Republican judges who will now serve until they die. I'd say for them, they're going to look back on Trumps time in office as being a successful run. People were all distracted by Trump's antics, while Republicans in the background furthered their own agenda with little resistance or public scrutiny.

nfotiu · 06-30-2020, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It's not good, but it's probably fine.

That can be a big part of how a government turns over. It doesn't say anything good for Biden's chances in four years if he does get elected, but eh.

I don't think Biden being not-well-liked should come as too much of a surprise. He's kind of an idiot, but he's a useful idiot for now, and a strong VP pick could really help push more people into the "for Biden" camp instead of the "against Trump" camp.

I don't know how I'd answer that question. I am a Biden supporter, but I feel much more strongly about voting against Trump.

PeteMoss · 06-30-2020, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You could probably swap Trump for Hillary, and Biden for Trump, and the numbers would look the same for the 2016 election. So "not good" doesn't compute, it's how Trump got in.

The against Hillary numbers would be miles higher than Biden.

I suspect most elections with incumbents are more about the incumbent than the other guy. And people really hate Trump so not sure its that bad of a motivator.

PeteMoss · 06-30-2020, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino7c

Everyone is so convinced that Trump is gonna get his ass kicked or quit! (yeah right)

Biden is likely to have some major gaffs when he actually appears in public

I actually think the Republicans would have preferred to keep the Biden is losing it ads until later in the cycle. They are pushing it so hard now that when it comes to the debates and people see Biden can talk in full sentences I could see it backfiring.

Scroopy Noopers · 06-30-2020, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The against Hillary numbers would be miles higher than Biden.

I suspect most elections with incumbents are more about the incumbent than the other guy. And people really hate Trump so not sure its that bad of a motivator.

octothorp · 06-30-2020, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Why's that? A vote against Trump counts the same as a vote for Biden. I realize the argument is enthusiasm, but there is a significant amount of people who have never been more enthusiastic to do anything as they are to see Trump go down in flames.

Yeah, there was an interesting article posted in this thread or one of its predecessors (couldn't find it through a quick search) about how grievance politics are much more reliable for driving turnout than positive sentiments. While hatred of Obama, for example, wasn't enough to unseat him in 2012, it did lead to 8 years of Republicans dominating down-ballot races, until hatred of Trump did the same for Democrats in 2018.

dino7c · 06-30-2020, 03:01 PM

All this being said Biden polled better Vs. Trump than any other Dem candidate and destroyed them all in the primaries (by getting people to vote for him)

People waiting for the ideal candidate might be waiting a while

100% Biden is more popular than Hillary

Firebot · 06-30-2020, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You could probably swap Trump for Hillary, and Biden for Trump, and the numbers would look the same for the 2016 election. So "not good" doesn't compute, it's how Trump got in.

People are making the same mistakes as 2016, Clinton was supposed to be a shoe in and was at this time of the year, until she wasn't. Only votes matter in the end and the fact that Biden is a truly abysmal candidate will only hurt the Democrats as people are not voting for him.

This is why Trump will win...again. People for Trump are much more avid voters than those that oppose him as those who are against Trumps doesn't necesarily translate into votes. Most the ones that oppose him are the 18-29 age group and had the lowest voter turnout of any age group by far.

But hey they will upvote the crap out of half empty rallies on reddit, that must count for something.

ernie · 06-30-2020, 03:32 PM

NY Times now reporting that US officials intercepted data showing large financial transfers from the Russian military to Taliban.

No comment from the administration which isn’t shocking as they’ve yet to really respond to the previous revelations.

Also Hilary was a shoe in until Comey. Anything could happen of course, but I don’t think Biden is that bad of a candidate. I mean IMO he’s a worse candidate than Clinton because quite honestly she was the best qualified candidate in ages but she had that one problem of being a woman and in particular a Clinton woman. And ya she’s not very nice.

Biden has respect from both sides of the house and that buys him a lot of leeway. Unlike Clinton it is really hard to frame him as a terrible person when no one thinks he is.

Scroopy Noopers · 06-30-2020, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firebot

But hey they will upvote the crap out of half empty rallies on reddit, that must count for something.

The stupidest people involved in that, were those who came out after saying they claimed all the tickets so no one could go. “Ahahaha suckers! You and the president thought the support wasn’t there, but in reality it is and we just trolled you!” If it had any impact, it was erased immediately.