Friedman's 31 thoughts Post trade deadline edition

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Buffalo? Maybe I'm missing your point here or did you mean Boston?

Good catch! Yes, sorry, I did mean Boston there.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

The Tavares one is an interesting example - as the Islanders have generally had more success without him. Losing him hasn't proved to be the disaster that it was projected to be.

I will say that maybe a bit coincidental as him leaving coincides with the hiring of arguably the best head coach in the NHL. The addition of one of the best coaches in the world probably trumps the loss of an elite forward.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by aaronck

Boston never really did a rebuild- they just keep re-tooling on the fly- only missed the playpoffs a few times in the last- missed the playoffs in 2006 and 2007 and 2015/2016. They drafted Kessel, then traded him to the Leafs.

They've also traded away Thornton and Kessel(-->Hamilton/Seguin) for essentially nothing. As others have mentioned, Tavares turned into nothing. I don't understand the reluctance to trade Gaudreau, hopefully for something better than those trades, but even if not, it isn't a guaranteed death knell.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Pretty much this. If we are projecting this team beyond this season then it doesn't make much sense to limit the data set to just this year with everything that has transpired. When 2018–19 is combined with 2019–20 the Flames are well within the top-ten teams in the League. If we are happy to consider last year as an outlier, then I see no reason why we should simply accept the current results as normative moving forward. All things being equal, the Flames fall somewhere between these results: not a top-five team in the NHL, but also better than a bubble team.

Do we not include lsat April in this analysis? Is it not reasonable that it should be the most highly weighted data?

It seems to me that consecutive playoff appearance and/or actually being competitive in playoff series would be the bare minimum to graduate out of the 'bubble' zone? Is Columbus a bubble team, or no? Carolina? Winnipeg? Nashville? It's all semantics...I suppose it depends what you consider the next tiers/categories to be.

I struggle to get to top 10 though. WAS, BOS, TBL, PIT, NYI, STL, COL, VGK, DAL = 9 teams (2 who you could argue against if strictly limited to 2 years) ...I have trouble putting us for sure ahead of the teams I list above...certainly in the mix, though.

Originally Posted by jayswin

Tkachuk actually only has two years until he can decide to force himself to UFA with an arbitration award.

It's also only 1 year until we can sign him to an extension.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Because of the high likelihood the Hall contract will be crippling and the player will under perform.

It’s not a package. You need to look at each deal individually IMO.

I agree.

But I'm under the assumption that they are going to sign either Hall or Gaudreau to a crippling contract.

I wish they wouldn't, but I think it's almost a given.

So I'd rather get the free asset, and move the team controlled asset for a windfall.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Do we not include lsat April in this analysis? Is it not reasonable that it should be the most highly weighted data?

It seems to me that consecutive playoff appearance and/or actually being competitive in playoff series would be the bare minimum to graduate out of the 'bubble' zone? Is Columbus a bubble team, or no? Carolina? Winnipeg? Nashville? It's all semantics...I suppose it depends what you consider the next tiers/categories to be.

I struggle to get to top 10 though. WAS, BOS, TBL, PIT, NYI, STL, COL, VGK, DAL = 9 teams (2 who you could argue against if strictly limited to 2 years) ...I have trouble putting us for sure ahead of the teams I list above...certainly in the mix, though.

Yeah, that's it. My extrapolation of the last two years to predict the future was to counter the idea that the Flames are a foundering bubble team on the brink of a rebuild. I think they are pretty clearly better than that.

[GioforPM]

I think the range for Gaudreau and Hall's contracts is really wide. They both can point to comparables that are high, but they both have pretty big question marks in their game. And I don't know who the competition for their services is.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yeah, that's it. My extrapolation of the last two years to predict the future was to counter the idea that the Flames are a foundering bubble team on the brink of a rebuild. I think they are pretty clearly better than that.

Completely agree; talk of a full rebuild is lunacy.

I think the reality is that there are 5-6 contenders (BOS, WAS, TBL, PIT, STL, COL) and 2-3 teams in full-blown rebuild mode (DET, OTT, maybe 1 more year for LAK, MIN tbd?).

Which is to say there are ~23 teams contenting for 10 playoff spots next year...CGY is certainly in the top half of this giant bubble group, but there aren't any results that would be completely shocking. It would be surprising if NJD and/or NYR made the playoffs next year ahead of NYI or CAR, but it's conceivable. BUF/MTL over TOR/FLA...conceivable. SJ or ANA ahead of CGY...conceivable.

I suppose my only point is that CGY is not on the verge of graduating out of the bubble, we just have pretty decent odds in the current crapshoot of parity.