[Trade] Hall (50% ret), Speers to ARI for 1st, cond 3rd, Merkley, Schnarr, Bahl

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He plays strong defense just because he's so good at offense. So since he has the puck the other team can't score.

Hockeyviz has a nice view that shows the isolated impact of a player in the offensive and defensive zone.

Over the last 4 seasons Hall is 21.5% more dangerous in the offensive zone when he's on the ice, and there is 13% less shots/chances when he is on the zone in the defensive zone.

When he's on the ice he's dominating the play at 5v5.

Here's the view just for this season.



Honestly I'm not sure I like the risk of sending potentially 2 firsts, and a top prospect (Especially since the contract will be crazy to re-sign) but he's the type of player you do that for if hes available.

Edit: Sorry can only see the image if you sub to hockeyviz

Only 21.5% more dangerous when he’s on the ice? I’d think he’d be 100% more dangerous when he’s on the ice than not.

When he’s on the ice he’s dominating 5 v 5? Always? True, he certainly isn’t when he’s not on the ice.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Only 21.5% more dangerous when he’s on the ice? I’d think he’d be 100% more dangerous when he’s on the ice than not.

When he’s on the ice he’s dominating 5 v 5? Always? True, he certainly isn’t when he’s not on the ice.

Depends if he has a water bottle in his hand.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Unfortunately bad input returns bad output. Minnesota shot counters are biased.

And the results bear that out. But it does beg the question as to whether the counters in any rink can be trusted enough to make the stat meaningful. Subjective stats can only be taken so far.

[Harry Lime]

I think this is the closest I've ever been to predicting a trade.

On the NJ side, they only have 4 prospects who are better than the 3 that they received. They badly need to restock the shelves.

On the Coyotes side, they have a great young team at the NHL level, and probably could take a hit on reserves coming up from the minors. They didn't lose a single impact player for 'now'.

Hall is not re-signing in the desert. I think the picks will be a 1st and 2nd.

[SuperMatt18]

One thing I will say about this trade is I take Ottawa’s approach on the return for Stone then the return on Hall here.

I’d much rather have one piece that looks like a sure thing, than a mixed bag of players they you hope become something. There is really no “blue chip” piece here, especially with it potentially being a 20-30 OV first.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

One thing I will say about this trade is I take Ottawa’s approach on the return for Stone then the return on Hall here.

I’d much rather have one piece that looks like a sure thing, than a mixed bag of players they you hope become something. There is really no “blue chip” piece here, especially with it potentially being a 20-30 OV first.

Like the Iggy and Bouwmeester trades.

Late 1sts are hit and miss. Middling prospects are hit and miss at best. It is entirely possible that NJ ends up with nothing from this trade (much like the Flames from the trades above)

quality is almost always better than quantity when it comes to prospects.

[GioforPM]

I don't think anyone was ready to pay the big price in prospects for an unsigned and inconsistent Hall, especially when it's so early in the season.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Like the Iggy and Bouwmeester trades.

Late 1sts are hit and miss. Middling prospects are hit and miss at best. It is entirely possible that NJ ends up with nothing from this trade (much like the Flames from the trades above)

quality is almost always better than quantity when it comes to prospects.

A coincidence, but acquiring Iginla was an example of the exact opposite: nieuwendyk went for a grade a prospect (iggy) and some spare parts.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

A coincidence, but acquiring Iginla was an example of the exact opposite: nieuwendyk went for a grade a prospect (iggy) and some spare parts.

First of all, it's a lottery - some picks and prospects will pan out (some won't).

Second, Iggy was rated higher than any of these guys, was he not? He was more of a quality return than a quantity one.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

A coincidence, but acquiring Iginla was an example of the exact opposite: nieuwendyk went for a grade a prospect (iggy) and some spare parts.

Fleury was an odd one. Traded for a hulking D who Calgary thought they needed and a gritty small forward to play a position. And a couple prospects which turned out pretty good Jarrett Stoll (but then they blew the signing) and Reg. Reg was chosen from a list of prospects.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I don't think anyone was ready to pay the big price in prospects for an unsigned and inconsistent Hall, especially when it's so early in the season.

I think that earlier in the season makes him more valuable, not less.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Getting pretty ####ing sick of division rivals adding elite players every goddamn season.

There are eight teams in the Pacific Division. Chances are high that elite-level players will be added to at least one of them every goddamned season.

[bubbsy]

What are the flames equivalent pieces here?

Merkley = Bennett
Schnarr = Phillips
Bahl = kylington

Glad we passed on this. I do hope they make a splash this season. Give the team the jolt and a lift going into the playoffs.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think that earlier in the season makes him more valuable, not less.

You get more in season value from him, sure. But teams are also a little leery of where they are in the standings and whether Hall moves the needle to get them into the POs.

Last year Vegas was different. They knew they were in, and they'd already gone deep the year before. So they thought Stone would win them a cup. So it makes sense that the Yotes were the team, because they are in first. They aren't worried so much about getting in - they want to go deep. The Flames need to see if this surge is a coaching change bump or a real turning point. So they were probably reluctant to beat that offer, especially for a rental. I don't think the Flames have a real shot at signing Hall, but if they traded for him the pressure to re-sign would be immense here. Hall would have a ton of leverage.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You get more in season value from him, sure. But teams are also a little leery of where they are in the standings and whether Hall moves the needle to get them into the POs.

Last year Vegas was different. They knew they were in, and they'd already gone deep the year before. So they thought Stone would win them a cup. So it makes sense that the Yotes were the team, because they are in first. They aren't worried so much about getting in - they want to go deep. The Flames need to see if this surge is a coaching change bump or a real turning point. So they were probably reluctant to beat that offer, especially for a rental. I don't think the Flames have a real shot at signing Hall, but if they traded for him the pressure to re-sign would be immense here. Hall would have a ton of leverage.

I agree with the bolded.

[bubbsy]

Wow, frigin weird to see Arizona currently sitting as the highest cap team in the league on capfrienfly.com

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

What are the flames equivalent pieces here?

Merkley = Bennett
Schnarr = Phillips
Bahl = kylington

Glad we passed on this. I do hope they make a splash this season. Give the team the jolt and a lift going into the playoffs.

Merkley is a 2015 #30 pick and has only played 1 NHL game over 3 years. Not comparable to Bennett.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I agree with the bolded.

I'll take it.

[Enoch Root]

Looks to be more comparable to Klimchuk (based only on stats, which is admittedly dangerous)

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

First of all, it's a lottery - some picks and prospects will pan out (some won't).

Second, Iggy was rated higher than any of these guys, was he not? He was more of a quality return than a quantity one.

I wasnt disagreeing with your posts, the iggy and bow trades were terrible and examples of exactly what not to do. I just think it's a funny coincidence that the iginla trade is exactly what you should do. Sure all prospects are lottery tickets, but some lottery tickets have better odds. Instead of getting three tickets with meager odds, get one ticket with better odds.