[Trade] Hall (50% ret), Speers to ARI for 1st, cond 3rd, Merkley, Schnarr, Bahl

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

IMO HDCF% is the most important individual stat, but ok. That's easy enough.

In the same period of time, with the same sample (min 1000 minutes, or roughly 100 GP), Hall ranks:

- 143rd in CF%, by far the highest of any NJ player (excluding Jon Merrill and Pat Maroon, the stats of whom are both significantly affected by their more substantial time spent with other, much better teams in Vegas and St Louis)

- 42nd in xGF%, again by far the highest of any NJ player

I'd pull up CA/60 but Corsica is currently down for me and I can't seem to locate it on Natural Stat Trick



What? That doesn't make any sense. Would it be better if I just called it "shot attempts" instead? It's just a name. It's like saying "Obamacare" makes you mad, but you like the Affordable Care Act.

The moment you make a stat like this the most important, you are missing the forest for the trees.

Is there information in it? Yes.

But the object of the game is to put the puck in the net more than the other team does. So actually scoring goals is more important than having chances. Because chances don't factor in the skill to finish.

[Beatle17]

Originally Posted by bax

Taylor Hall- the player known for ripping to the bench as quick as he can while the other team has an odd man rush to avoid getting a minus. A stat that nobody takes seriously.

Not known for generating offense at an elite level and winning the Hart trophy as MVP of the NHL.

Even if he’s defense was non-existent (which it’s not) he still makes up for it by how much he generates offensively.

When you were watching him in junior did you see him win two memorial cups and two mvps too?

Sure did, and he is a great offensive player. But saying he is a 200 foot player is a fallacy. He is what he is and plays defence just like Gaudreau does.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Beatle17

Sure did, and he is a great offensive player. But saying he is a 200 foot player is a fallacy. He is what he is and plays defence just like Gaudreau does.

Of course, he’s not Patrice Bergeron or anything. He still helps any team his is on much more than he hurts them is my point

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The moment you make a stat like this the most important, you are missing the forest for the trees.

Is there information in it? Yes.

But the object of the game is to put the puck in the net more than the other team does. So actually scoring goals is more important than having chances. Because chances don't factor in the skill to finish.

That's a good point. I should've chosen my words more clearly -- I think HDCF% is the most important advanced, supplemental stat, because it incorporates shot location and placement at both ends of the ice.

But you're obviously right, nothing's more important than the score.

[SuperMatt18]

He plays strong defense just because he's so good at offense. So since he has the puck the other team can't score.

Hockeyviz has a nice view that shows the isolated impact of a player in the offensive and defensive zone.

Over the last 4 seasons Hall is 21.5% more dangerous in the offensive zone when he's on the ice, and there is 13% less shots/chances when he is on the zone in the defensive zone.

When he's on the ice he's dominating the play at 5v5.

Here's the view just for this season.



Honestly I'm not sure I like the risk of sending potentially 2 firsts, and a top prospect (Especially since the contract will be crazy to re-sign) but he's the type of player you do that for if hes available.

Edit: Sorry can only see the image if you sub to hockeyviz

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

That's a good point. I should've chosen my words more clearly -- I think HDCF% is the most important advanced, supplemental stat, because it incorporates shot location and placement at both ends of the ice.

But you're obviously right, nothing's more important than the score.

Okay, fair enough. Thanks for clarifying.

[TheScorpion]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1206713908188332032

[Since1984]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

In that case:

Josh Anderson. 25 going on 26. Having a miserable season with just 1 goal and 4 points through 26 games (while shooting just 1.6%), but has been a dominant presence in the past. Big RHS right-winger. Pending RFA.

There's a guy who seems to check all of his boxes.

Yep, I have been hoping to snag him one way or another for the last 2 seasons...unfortunately he may have broken his hand last game in a fight that was completely unneeded.

[Monahammer]

I find it terribly sad and fitting that our biggest need is a goalscoring rw with size and grit, while this was the only thing we had the last decade +

[Lanny_McDonald]

Taylor Hall is the perfect player for the argument between fancy stats and reality. The fancy stats tell you one thing, but his play on the ice says another. Glad we passed on this paper tiger. Looking forward to watching the Road Kill falter.

[dammage79]

I'm still looking at NJ and Mike McLeod. Dont really care if other people dont like him much. But a fast RHS center who may find his niche in the NHL at RW would be good to look at. Probably not top 6 material but I think he could be a great fit here.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Acquisition cost was palatable for me - not cheap, but not expensive. NJ got good assets there, even though IMO there wasn't a blue-chipper.



I don't really know if I consider Hall "elite" - and I think that's the problem a lot of us have. I know his '200ft game' was non-existent the last time the Flames played NJ - it made me wish that the Flames didn't spend assets on him. With that being said, he would have undoubtedly solidified Calgary's top 6.



At the end of the day, I would prefer a RHS RW'er or a top 6 centre anyway. If you are going to spend big assets, then you spend them at the position that you are most in need of. Teams bleed picks and prospect depth by trading them away to fill lower-level holes. Thanks to the really solid drafting that the Flames have been doing, they don't need to fill lower-level holes - they can package up assets in deals like this to fill premier positions.


Who knows what will end up happening as the season progresses. Calgary I am sure will make some moves, and maybe someone else becomes available that will surprise us, or they grab an underperforming player who blossoms here - not like it hasn't happened before either - Huselius' best years were here, Hudler exploded here, etc.



If I am Treliving, I am going to keep circling back to LA and Tyler Toffoli - he can score and is a RHS. I bet he rebounds in Calgary, and there is no way they are going to ask for a first. Zucker is an option, but I would love Eric Staal - gives this team some flexibility, especially if injuries start mounting through a playoff series.



I am always of the opinion that when an elite player becomes available under the age of 30, you do your best to acquire that elite player. I think Hall may or may not be elite, as every time I watch him he seems underwhelming overall, though his speed really puts the opposing teams on their heels. Acquisition cost was palatable, but IMO, that top-line RHS winger or Top 6 centre is what this organization really needs, so hopefully someone that can fit this team better will become available, and this team will have the assets to make the trade then, hopefully.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I have no data driven argument or anything for this but for some reason it seems to me that having Phil Kessel and Hall on the same team is going to be a fun disaster to watch unfold.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I'm still looking at NJ and Mike McLeod. Dont really care if other people dont like him much. But a fast RHS center who may find his niche in the NHL at RW would be good to look at. Probably not top 6 material but I think he could be a great fit here.

Liked him as a prospect but the concerns that he would struggle to find offense at the pro level seem well founded
Great skater though and probably in a bottom 6 role would be effective.

[Badgers Nose]

Kudos to NJ for not stretching this out.

Like others, I'm not sure I see the fit in ARI.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Liked him as a prospect but the concerns that he would struggle to find offense at the pro level seem well founded
Great skater though and probably in a bottom 6 role would be effective.

I like the idea of trying him at Jankos spot. Not much worse can come of it.

Not directed at you but not every trade has to be for the flashiest big fish in the seas.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I have no data driven argument or anything for this but for some reason it seems to me that having Phil Kessel and Hall on the same team is going to be a fun disaster to watch unfold.

Yeah that's the biggest thing to me. I do wonder if a team that has been winning through a commitment to a strong defensive identity, starts to maybe look to open up a bit more when you have Hall, Kessel, Keller, Stepan, Garland, etc.

None of those guys really scream, "Lock it down, and play structured D" to me.

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Mikko Koivu
Jared Spurgeon
Mikael Granlund
Dominik Simon
Jason Zucker
Patric Hornqvist
Ryan Suter
Lucas Wallmark
Alexander Radulov
William Carrier

Given that a lot of these are Minnesota Wild players I'd chalk that up to weird counting at the Xcel Energy Center, which IIRC has had some inflated home shot counts over the years.

I think this shows that this really shows that it’s a useless stat. It looks to me like Arizona is following the Columbus strategy from last year. Collect every big name throw it all together and see what happens.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

I think this shows that this really shows that it’s a useless stat.

Unfortunately bad input returns bad output. Minnesota shot counters are biased.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

That's a good point. I should've chosen my words more clearly -- I think HDCF% is the most important advanced, supplemental stat, because it incorporates shot location and placement at both ends of the ice.

But you're obviously right, nothing's more important than the score.

Baseball has WAR. Kind of rolls off the tongue.

Hockey has Hud Cuff.