GT: Canadian Federal Election 2019

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

The Fonz-

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec.../2019/results/

Scroll down to "regions" and you can select each province. It gives you percentages. If you want raw numbers it looks like you have to hover over the graph.

Remember the days when there were promises of Electoral Reform? We were going to get rid of 'First Past the Post' and the party that got the most votes would win.

Seems like a good thing Justin didnt do that....for Justin anyways.

Its sad that the Conservatives got almost 250,000 more votes but lost.

In effect this Country is being taken somewhere most of us dont want to go by someone we didnt agree to follow. I think theres a term for that....

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Okay, what in your opinion was the reason she lost?

You're really taking credit away from Adam van Koeverden here...The guy ran an amazing campaign and got people extremely motivated. Full credit should be given to him.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Okay, what in your opinion was the reason she lost?

Given how little attention I paid to that riding, I couldn't offer an explanation any less shallow than yours. But, she only won in 2015 by 5 points, and the Liberals ran a high profile candidate against her.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Locke

Remember the days when there were promises of Electoral Reform? We were going to get rid of 'First Past the Post' and the party that got the most votes would win.

Seems like a good thing Justin didnt do that....for Justin anyways.

Its sad that the Conservatives got almost 250,000 more votes but lost.

In effect this Country is being taken somewhere most of us dont want to go by someone we didnt agree to follow. I think theres a term for that....

That's all true, but another way to look at it is:

Popular vote:
Liberal: 33.1 (157 seats)
NDP: 15.9 (24 seats)
Green: 6.5 (2 seats)

Tories: 34.4 (121 seats)
PPCs: 1.6 (0 seats)

Bloc: 7.7% (32 seats)

So 55.5% for the left/center left
36% for the right/center right
and 7.7% for the Bloc, whatever they identify as these days - labour left/immigration right/etc.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Are the Conservatives somehow more regressive under Scheer versus Harper?

I would say quite easily relative to the viewpoints of the average Canadian. Even if think they have the exact same views, Harper first became Prime Minister over a decade ago. The kids who grew up knowing that being a homophobic tool was not cool now get a vote.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Given how little attention I paid to that riding, I couldn't offer an explanation any less shallow than yours. But, she only won in 2015 by 5 points, and the Liberals ran a high profile candidate against her.

Even still, that's a pretty massive swing.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I would say quite easily relative to the viewpoints of the average Canadian. Even if think they have the exact same views, Harper first became Prime Minister over a decade ago. The kids who grew up knowing that being a homophobic tool was not cool now get a vote.

Also the tenor of Provincial conservative leaders.

They locked doug ford away for a reason.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Also the tenor of Provincial conservative leaders.

They locked doug ford away for a reason.

The Maclean's cover from last year or whenever looks even more hilarious now.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That's all true, but another way to look at it is:

Popular vote:
Liberal: 33.1 (157 seats)
NDP: 15.9 (24 seats)
Green: 6.5 (2 seats)

Tories: 34.4 (121 seats)
PPCs: 1.6 (0 seats)

Bloc: 7.7% (32 seats)

So 55.5% for the left/center left
36% for the right/center right
and 7.7% for the Bloc, whatever they identify as these days - labour left/immigration right/etc.

The Liberals aren't left. They are centre. If you are comparing centre-left vs. centre-right, the Liberals fall in both camps.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The Liberals aren't left. They are centre. If you are comparing centre-left vs. centre-right, the Liberals fall in both camps.

Ummm no. Depends what you mean by this.

[bob-loblaw]

Originally Posted by Locke

Remember the days when there were promises of Electoral Reform? We were going to get rid of 'First Past the Post' and the party that got the most votes would win.

Seems like a good thing Justin didnt do that....for Justin anyways.

Its sad that the Conservatives got almost 250,000 more votes but lost.

In effect this Country is being taken somewhere most of us dont want to go by someone we didnt agree to follow. I think theres a term for that....

This is a silly way of thinking about the popular vote numbers, but I wonder how it breaks down if you discount all the extra votes that the riding winners got above the 'First Past the Post' number - essentially one above the second place finisher.

Because the west voted Conservative so overwhelmingly that there's a huge pool of them that are essentially 'not needed' for a lack of a better term. I wonder what that would like everywhere else by region.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Also the tenor of Provincial conservative leaders.

They locked doug ford away for a reason.

The day of the fat, angry, old Conservative leader has to be done by now.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The Liberals aren't left. They are centre. If you are comparing centre-left vs. centre-right, the Liberals fall in both camps.

I think they are centre to centre left myself. But even if they encompass centre-right, that doesn't really change the point much. More people in Canada, in fact, a majority, are left of the Conservative Party.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by peter12

Ummm no. Depends what you mean by this.

Canada is not a left-right dichotomy. It's left-centre-right. The LPC, in the centre, takes cues from both its left and their right. And it gains and loses support to and from both directions.

The narrative that Canadian politics is the CPC on the right vs. everyone else on the left is simply false.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Canada is not a left-right dichotomy. It's left-centre-right. The LPC, in the centre, takes cues from both its left and their right. And it gains and loses support to and from both directions.

The narrative that Canadian politics is the CPC on the right vs. everyone else on the left is simply false.

Sure. I'm not sure of your point though. LPC policy since Trudeau has been a play for progressive voters though.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Canada is not a left-right dichotomy. It's left-centre-right. The LPC, in the centre, takes cues from both its left and their right. And it gains and loses support to and from both directions.

The narrative that Canadian politics is the CPC on the right vs. everyone else on the left is simply false.

But the CPC is further right than everyone else, except the non-entity PPC. And that is trouble for them.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

I think the first one - good jobs for young people - is the biggest one the CPC can focus on. And to me that starts with a massive increase in subsidized cross country post-secondary education. Providing hope and opportunity for those in rural areas, mainland Vancouver and the GTA. It's a winning policy. Everyone who has kids can see that coming out of university with $100k+ in debt is a true hardship for middle class families, but you need a post-secondary education to get ahead these days

I think this is a terrible idea. First, post secondary education is already subsidized, and in fact, it is because of subsidization and ease of obtaining student loans that the cost of tuition is so high. Second, blindly pushing post secondary education on everyone is not going to improve the job situation for young people. Mindlessly sinking 4 years and 5-6 figures into an education that has little value in the job market is a big part of the problem these days, and your idea would only make that worse. Third, this would be the exact opposite of being fiscally conservative, so why should the CPC go anywhere near this idea?

I am noticing that people seem to be interpreting their own personal misgivings about the Conservative party as to the reason that they lost. The CPC lost because they have regressive social values... they lost because they aren't fiscally progressive enough... I don't think that is it.

In Ontario, the electorate tends to be pretty sleepy. They vote because everyone mindlessly repeats the mantra that you have to vote no matter what, so they tend to vote for the incumbent. Until, they get tired of the incumbent. 4 years was simply not enough time for that to have happened. I suspect that if the CPC were to run the exact same platform after an additional 4 years of Trudeau, they would win a majority easily, and it would be largely due to Ontario. All of this talk about the CPC needing to radically change who they are if they ever hope to win again is naive. And seriously, what would be the point of having 2 liberal parties?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Canada is not a left-right dichotomy. It's left-centre-right. The LPC, in the centre, takes cues from both its left and their right. And it gains and loses support to and from both directions.

The narrative that Canadian politics is the CPC on the right vs. everyone else on the left is simply false.

Liberals have swung left. Chretian era Liberals you could say where centre.

What right policies do they have anymore? They are socially liberal clearly. Fiscally - they are running deficits, speaking of adding nationalized pharmacare.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Canada is not a left-right dichotomy. It's left-centre-right. The LPC, in the centre, takes cues from both its left and their right. And it gains and loses support to and from both directions..

I think it's always depended who is in charge for whether they take to the right or left. Id definitely call them center-left at this point.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

But the CPC is further right than everyone else, except the non-entity PPC. And that is trouble for them.

Are they farther right? How? Not policy-wise. The CPC has become a party of western sentiment that has a particular election strategy of micro-segmentation and push politics.



They need, in my opinion, to reinvent themselves as a party of big conservative ideas on the major issues that affect Canadians.