Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

This is a prime example of intellectual dishonesty.

There would not be a hockey fan or analyst outside of a vocal few here on CP that would hold that opinion.

Is Neal going to be the worst player on the Oilers? bottom-3 like he was on the Flames last season .... no

Is Lucic going to be anything more than a bottom line thug with the Flames?


Even if Neal was as bad as he was in his brief time as a Flame they would have to be getting beaten in goon fights pretty often to want Lucic back.

Who are you to take someone else's opinion and call it intellectual dishonesty?

Seriously?

Lucic was a non event player that finished top 10 in hits. Nobody debates he can still put a scare into the opposition.

Neal was a goal scorer that wasn't scoring that could do basically nothing else.

It's not intellectual dishonesty to hold the view that a 32 year olds scoring days are behind him, that he's likely to get even slower, and given that he didn't have the defensive chops to begin with it could get worse year over year over year.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Does this come down to content being posts you like and non-content being posts you don't?

How is my quoted post saying people who don't agree shouldn't be made to feel ostracized not content?

Lol

You want to know why people think you don’t contribute? Your drive bys. Your one word responses. You know, the “contributions” you add that only take away from this board.

[powderjunkie]

We all know why this trade happened: urgent need for short term cap space and an unknown off-ice issue. It is especially difficult to speculate on the road not taken here because there would have been other consequences from keeping him. That said, I think it's still interesting to evaluate it through a few different lenses in a vacuum:

1. Ignoring contracts, how many NHL teams would prefer to have Neal over Lucic this year?
2. Ignoring other contract elements, how many NHL teams would prefer to have Neal over Lucic for the next 4 years?
3. How many NHL teams would prefer to have Neal over Lucic if it cost them an extra $500k/yr (ignoring other contract elements since each team would differently value a back-diving contract+NMC vs. straight-forward)?
4. What kind of return would Neal generate if traded today (including all contract elements)?
5. Assuming his play regresses to his 2 year average (ie. a bit better than his time as a Flame and a bit worse than his time as a Knight), what kind of return would Neal generate if traded this summer?

Goal scoring is probably the most difficult skill to replicate - for all of his flaws, I think the answers to #1&2 is almost certainly 30, and probably still close to 30 for #3. The answer to #4 and 5 is also certainly more than Lucic's contract +3rd.

IMO it is absolutely certain that the Oilers won this trade, because the asset they acquired is universally valued higher than what they gave up. It is still possible that the Flames didn't totally 'lose' the trade (trades are not a zero-sum thing), but initial outlook not so good.

[getbak]

I would guess that there are more teams thanking their lucky stars that they didn't "win" the right to sign either of these guys when they were UFAs than would pick up either one for free today.

How many GMs do you think are kicking themselves right now because they didn't put together their own package of garbage to pick up Neal this summer?

[pepper24]

I always basked in the glory that Lucic was untradeable and would continue to hurt the Oilers for years to come. Now I eat my Boston Pizza hat.

[Reaper]

I have a theory that there is a gentleman's agreement between Treliving and Lucic where Tree agreed to give Looch a fresh start on the condition that he agree to waive his NMC to go to Seattle in the draft if his stint with the Flames doesn't turn things around.. I have nothing to substantiate it other than the feeling that Lucic may wish for his family to be closer as his kids and parents get older. Heck, considering the proximity to Vancouver Lucic could possibly even move his family to Vancouver and take a commuter plane to Seattle to visit with him on a regular basis.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Reaper

I have a theory that there is a gentleman's agreement between Treliving and Lucic where Tree agreed to give Looch a fresh start on the condition that he agree to waive his NMC to go to Seattle in the draft if his stint with the Flames doesn't turn things around.. I have nothing to substantiate it other than the feeling that Lucic may wish for his family to be closer as his kids and parents get older. Heck, considering the proximity to Vancouver Lucic could possibly even move his family to Vancouver and take a commuter plane to Seattle to visit with him on a regular basis.

There may be an agreement to waive but Lucic would be one of the last Flames players chosen

[FiveSeven]

I was positive about this trade but the nonstop arguments and Neal actually scoring has made this one of the most bitter topic I can personally think of. The Flames window blows wide open and I become incredibly excited, then poof. Neal and Lucic come storming through the door with their hockey sticks ready to slash me down. I pray Lucic scores a goal tonight or gets an assist that is accrued with something resembling skill.

[dammage79]

Just think it's a topic that's reach is endgame.

Neal was never going to crack the top PP unit in CGy, and so far Lucic has fit into the bottom six about the same as Neal had with some better results. Like I said before, as long as Lucic brings the efforts every night, I'm good. It's the best I was hoping for.

Neal can score 50 and I couldn't care less, because that's not something that would ever happen on the Flames. It just wouldnt.

What did Neal in when he signed here was one thing, the instant and undeniably perfect fit Elias Lindholm has with the top line. And it literally took one shift in China to settle who was gonna be on the top line. From then on, Neal was doomed in CGY. No top until pp time, no top line time unless it was after a PK. Nothing.

So Lucic can pot as many points as Neal did and I wont care. Jus police the ice and keep the other teams honest.

That's all we are gonna get. And settle in because it's not ending anytime soon.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Reaper

I have a theory that there is a gentleman's agreement between Treliving and Lucic where Tree agreed to give Looch a fresh start on the condition that he agree to waive his NMC to go to Seattle in the draft if his stint with the Flames doesn't turn things around.. I have nothing to substantiate it other than the feeling that Lucic may wish for his family to be closer as his kids and parents get older. Heck, considering the proximity to Vancouver Lucic could possibly even move his family to Vancouver and take a commuter plane to Seattle to visit with him on a regular basis.

Based on Treliving's comments after the trade that they're not worried about needing to protect Lucic in the expansion draft, I agree with your theory that part of the trade agreement was a gentleman's agreement that he will waive the NMC for the expansion draft.

They can't officially make the request until sometime in early 2021, but I'm sure they've already made the agreement to help accommodate the deal.

Originally Posted by edslunch

There may be an agreement to waive but Lucic would be one of the last Flames players chosen

Yeah, any discussion about waiving the NMC should be more about who the Flames will need to protect than any actual thought about Seattle taking Lucic in the expansion draft.

[dino7c]

Hopefully they hit a home run with the 3rd and we get the last laugh.

And why wouldn't Lucic waive? They won't take him anyway. Really though is he even gonna be on the roster? Who knows, it's not worth worrying about

[Resolute 14]

Not to pick on you Bingo... okay, somewhat to pick on you... but I love how you're trying to argue that Lucic being a "non event player" would be a good thing. I get what you are trying to say, but at the same time, the message that comes down is "best case scenario is that he's invisible."

Honestly, we probably should have just held on to Neal then. Because we already knew invisible was what we would get out of him.

[monkeyman]

mabye it's just me, but it seems like Johnny has taken less stick work to the hands and cheap shots overall so far this year. anyone else noticing it?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by monkeyman

mabye it's just me, but it seems like Johnny has taken less stick work to the hands and cheap shots overall so far this year. anyone else noticing it?

That's one thing I've been wondering about.

I haven't really been paying attention to it, but if there's any truth to the idea that Lucic's presence keeps the other teams in check with regard to hacking Johnny, Lucic could be responsible for more goals (especially later in the season) even if he doesn't score them himself.

That's one of those elusive intangibles.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by getbak

That's one thing I've been wondering about.

I haven't really been paying attention to it, but if there's any truth to the idea that Lucic's presence keeps the other teams in check with regard to hacking Johnny, Lucic could be responsible for more goals (especially later in the season) even if he doesn't score them himself.

That's one of those elusive intangibles.

So for Edmonton, we compare Neal and Chiasson to last year’s Chiasson and Lucic
And in Calgary we compare Johnny plus Lucic this year to Johnny and Neal last year?

Good fun

[camm13]

Originally Posted by monkeyman

mabye it's just me, but it seems like Johnny has taken less stick work to the hands and cheap shots overall so far this year. anyone else noticing it?

We haven't necessarily played any so to speak "mean" teams yet or strong rivalries. Also, I think its early in the season, where games aren't as important so there is less hitting, and rough stuff

[Robbob]

I think his presence does help. Also I heard the guy he fought when LA was in town knocked the guy out, he hasn't played since. Zaradov was less an arse. So I think there is something to it.

[Dajazz]

It is not a discussion about Neal vs Lucic.

It’s about what Treliving could have gotten INSTEAD. Neal was never going to work here, I’ll agree to that, but he traded him for the universally agreed WORST contract in the NHL.

The first mistake was to sign Neal, but who knew? He was EXACTLY what we needed, all pundits and experts agreed. The Lucic contract was a laughing stock from day one.

So, why not eat a million or two on Neal’s contract and trade him for something remotely looking resembling value. He got fleeeeeeeeced by Edmonton. He is supposedly very active, but I doubt he did his due diligence here. He wanted Lucic, and when Tre wants - he gets.

#### trade is still #### and is even ####tier now. This is a top three worst trade in Flames’ history.

[Jiri Hrdina]

^You assume they could have gotten anything. Even with throwing in a million or two, I'm not convinced of that. I think the fits likely were Lucic, Eriksson or nada.

[Bourque's Twin]

Neal has 8 goals, 6 of them on the PP, 0 assists and is a -1. He’s shooting 38%.

He’s getting a lot of time with the best player in the NHL.

It’s way too soon to judge this trade. Let’s see how both teams and both players perform by the end of the year. Then we can say who won the trade. There will be a point in time this season when the Oilers slump, and James Neal is going to look a lot worse than Lucic.