Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Rando]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't dislike Neal. Obviously I don't want him to succeed in Edmonton but I feel regardless of my feelings on the matter it's probably going to happen at least in the first year or two. I just feel some of you are in a state of denial about him. Brad Treliving never signed Neal for his play away from the puck 5 on 5. He signed him to be that elusive winger that could put the puck in the net as he's done his entire career. Obviously in year one things didn't work as planned but at least early he's back on track as the player he has always been. Many of you keep bringing up his 5 on 5 play, powerplay goals, skating, etc, etc ignoring the fact that like many one dimensional forwards he gets paid to score goals and he's doing that right now and there's no reason to believe that he's going to drift back to the player he was for the Flames last year as he's not the first player ever to have a bad season and bounce back to career norms.

Some here are twisting themselves into pretzles to justify the move, I understand where you're coming from here.. but your views on Neal are a little extreme to be honest.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

He's going to get over 30 goals. He's already almost 1/3 there half way in October.

It's possible I suppose but I wouldn't bet on it. Neal scored six goals in his first four games two years ago and didn't hit 30, finishing with one in his final 17 for Vegas. I addressed your "winning follows Neal" comment earlier as well, which isn't true.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Why?

You like Neal? You want Neal to succeed in Edmonton? You want to be right in this argument?

Why would you be looking forward to people that want Calgary to win or at least not lose a trade to run out of excuses?

I think that's his point. It's not that he wants to be right. It's that he *is* right. People have been breaking their backs in this and the E=NG threads trying to rationalize the fact that the bloody Oilers kicked the crap out of Treliving on this trade.

We all agree that Neal was a bad signing in the first place. And we all mostly agree that he had to go. But that doesn't really change the fact that (a) Neal has already done more in six games for Edmonton than he did in 87 for us and (b) Milan Lucic is likely to be a worse player for us this year than Neal was last year.

All of these "but the powerplay doesn't count" and "but Neal's fancystats are poor" and "but Chiasson" arguments are just desperate attempts to avoid having to take a big, juicy bite out of that crapburger.

Treliving made us worse, and our rival better. Some people here just need to start accepting and dealing with that fact.

[Matt Reeeeead]

I think EE is a Flames fan.

I just question his ability to analyze hockey talent.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I think that's his point. It's not that he wants to be right. It's that he *is* right. People have been breaking their backs in this and the E=NG threads trying to rationalize the fact that the bloody Oilers kicked the crap out of Treliving on this trade.

We all agree that Neal was a bad signing in the first place. And we all mostly agree that he had to go. But that doesn't really change the fact that (a) Neal has already done more in six games for Edmonton than he did in 87 for us and (b) Milan Lucic is likely to be a worse player for us this year than Neal was last year.

All of these "but the powerplay doesn't count" and "but Neal's fancystats are poor" and "but Chiasson" arguments are just desperate attempts to avoid having to take a big, juicy bite out of that crapburger.

Treliving made us worse, and our rival better. Some people here just need to start accepting and dealing with that fact.

Long term I think it was still the right move. And I also believe that the stats are going to fall into a more normal and expected place.

I continue to believe that Edmonton will not come out better at the end of the day. I don't think Neal will move the needle on their success this year. And going forward it's going to get worse, not better, for them.

[VladtheImpaler]

Look, as long as Neal scores over 20 goals and the Oilers still miss the playoffs, we win because we get the 3rd rounder and the cap/cash savings. If Neal scores and the Oilers make the playoffs, we lose. Both scenarios assume Lucic does nothing.

[Flamenspiel]

Edmonton did lose last night, to a Blackhawk team that is first good team they played.Let’s get back to focusing on the “no good” that they represent.

Neal is a side show.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Long term I think it was still the right move. And I also believe that the stats are going to fall into a more normal and expected place.

I continue to believe that Edmonton will not come out better at the end of the day. I don't think Neal will move the needle on their success this year. And going forward it's going to get worse, not better, for them.

Lucic could not be on the team going forward. Its already a win for Edmonton. How it turns out for Calgary is TBD. But I assume it will be one of those end of day win/win trades.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Long term I think it was still the right move. And I also believe that the stats are going to fall into a more normal and expected place.

I continue to believe that Edmonton will not come out better at the end of the day. I don't think Neal will move the needle on their success this year. And going forward it's going to get worse, not better, for them.

Neal has already done more to move the needle on success for them than Lucic did last year. Does that mean they are a playoff team? No, probably not. That said, we can try to dismiss their 5-1 start due to the combination of good luck and the fact that their schedule was buttery soft, but they were still winning the games that teams aspiring to improve should be winning.

If Neal scores at his usual 11-12% rate from here on out, he's going to be a 20-25 goal scorer. In other words, exactly what we signed him to be. People are kidding themselves if they don't think that stings.

There's no surprise in the attitude though. We all want and need Neal to fail because it would help reduce the sting of voluntarily taking on a guy who has no chance to succeed. Lucic just isn't an NHL calibre player any more. And literally the only positives we can invent for him is the thought that the other team's goon didn't run around because of his presence - even though said goon scored a goal and was +3.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Matt Reeeeead

I think EE is a Flames fan.

of course he's a flames fan

You shouldn't have to show your papers every time you disagree

[Lanny_McDonald]

The bottom line is that Treliving's job is to make Calgary better, which he clearly did not. Lucic is a downgrade from Neal, even the James Neal that shat the bed for the Flames last year. The biggest problem with this trade is it makes the Flames worse, now and for the next three years.

Neal is a better fit in Edmonton, and makes the Oilers marginally better, but not enough to be concerned about IMO. I hope he scores 15 more PP goals this year and Calgary gets that draft pick. But the reality is the Oilers will only score so many PP goals, so it is the rest of the game that matters. The Oilers don't have enough of anything to be competitive. Seriously, they are playing McDavid and Draisatl almost 30 minutes a game while beating the bottom feeders from last year's standings. They will come crashing back to earth quickly. You can't survive on one line in the NHL. They're done.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't dislike Neal. Obviously I don't want him to succeed in Edmonton but I feel regardless of my feelings on the matter it's probably going to happen at least in the first year or two. I just feel some of you are in a state of denial about him. Brad Treliving never signed Neal for his play away from the puck 5 on 5. He signed him to be that elusive winger that could put the puck in the net as he's done his entire career. Obviously in year one things didn't work as planned but at least early he's back on track as the player he has always been. Many of you keep bringing up his 5 on 5 play, powerplay goals, skating, etc, etc ignoring the fact that like many one dimensional forwards he gets paid to score goals and he's doing that right now and there's no reason to believe that he's going to drift back to the player he was for the Flames last year as he's not the first player ever to have a bad season and bounce back to career norms.

Hope you're wrong.

If a guy scores 20 but has three plus years of a negative estimated contribution he isn't playing well enough in every facet to make up for the goals he scores.

That's a bad signing.

But that's beyond the point. You literally said you hope people run out of excuses ... why?

You certainly don't have to agree with me or others on the assessment of James Neal, but shouldn't you kind of hope that you're wrong and not the group that thinks Neal is going to list into irrelevance in a matter of time?

When the playoffs start this year I have a feeling my gut will tell me they'll be first round fodder again, but I sure hope I'm wrong.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I think that's his point. It's not that he wants to be right. It's that he *is* right. People have been breaking their backs in this and the E=NG threads trying to rationalize the fact that the bloody Oilers kicked the crap out of Treliving on this trade.

We all agree that Neal was a bad signing in the first place. And we all mostly agree that he had to go. But that doesn't really change the fact that (a) Neal has already done more in six games for Edmonton than he did in 87 for us and (b) Milan Lucic is likely to be a worse player for us this year than Neal was last year.

All of these "but the powerplay doesn't count" and "but Neal's fancystats are poor" and "but Chiasson" arguments are just desperate attempts to avoid having to take a big, juicy bite out of that crapburger.

Treliving made us worse, and our rival better. Some people here just need to start accepting and dealing with that fact.

If that's his point he likely should have picked his words better no?

The simple reading of it is obvious. He looks forward to others running out of excuses ...

That's not hoping Neal fails, its hoping he doesn't so he can be right?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

of course he's a flames fan

You shouldn't have to show your papers every time you disagree

Honestly man ... just give it a rest.

I've honestly asked you a dozen or so times to actually add content or just leave it. The pissiness is becoming a farce.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Lucic could not be on the team going forward. Its already a win for Edmonton. How it turns out for Calgary is TBD. But I assume it will be one of those end of day win/win trades.

It's not already a win for Edmonton, because I'm very confident Neal is not going to work out long term. In other words, one day management is going to wish they still had Lucic and not Neal.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

The bottom line is that Treliving's job is to make Calgary better, which he clearly did not. Lucic is a downgrade from Neal, even the James Neal that shat the bed for the Flames last year. The biggest problem with this trade is it makes the Flames worse, now and for the next three years.

Neal is a better fit in Edmonton, and makes the Oilers marginally better, but not enough to be concerned about IMO. I hope he scores 15 more PP goals this year and Calgary gets that draft pick. But the reality is the Oilers will only score so many PP goals, so it is the rest of the game that matters. The Oilers don't have enough of anything to be competitive. Seriously, they are playing McDavid and Draisatl almost 30 minutes a game while beating the bottom feeders from last year's standings. They will come crashing back to earth quickly. You can't survive on one line in the NHL. They're done.

Yeah but that's not the bottom line.

Neal may continue his torrid pace, find his defensive game and suddenly become a great all around player ... then you'd have a bottom line.

But James Neal in his last year in Nashville, his only year in Vegas and then even more so his year in Calgary is a net negative contributor to hockey teams. If he's fixed that this year then Calgary has compounded their problem in the trade.

If he hasn't then the Flames aren't worse with a net zero contributor with intangibles. It's garbage for garbage, and the garbage that's here wants to be here.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Honestly man ... just give it a rest.

I've honestly asked you a dozen or so times to actually add content or just leave it. The pissiness is becoming a farce.

Does this come down to content being posts you like and non-content being posts you don't?

How is my quoted post saying people who don't agree shouldn't be made to feel ostracized not content?

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

How is my quoted post saying people who don't agree shouldn't be made to feel ostracized not content?

I dunno man, you sure don't sound content to me

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Neal has already done more to move the needle on success for them than Lucic did last year. Does that mean they are a playoff team? No, probably not. That said, we can try to dismiss their 5-1 start due to the combination of good luck and the fact that their schedule was buttery soft, but they were still winning the games that teams aspiring to improve should be winning.

If Neal scores at his usual 11-12% rate from here on out, he's going to be a 20-25 goal scorer. In other words, exactly what we signed him to be. People are kidding themselves if they don't think that stings.

There's no surprise in the attitude though. We all want and need Neal to fail because it would help reduce the sting of voluntarily taking on a guy who has no chance to succeed. Lucic just isn't an NHL calibre player any more. And literally the only positives we can invent for him is the thought that the other team's goon didn't run around because of his presence - even though said goon scored a goal and was +3.

Neal is going to be a problem for them, notwithstanding scoring a bunch of goals out of the gate. And this prediction isn't because I "want" Neal to fail, though I never wish anything good for Edmonton. It's based on other data.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Does this come down to content being posts you like and non-content being posts you don't?

How is my quoted post saying people who don't agree shouldn't be made to feel ostracized not content?

One word answers.
Nothing but sarcasm.

I'm sure you know what you're doing.

I have plenty of people disagreeing with me, most have the class to deal with the actual issues and not try and score points with arrogant drive bys.

[Flash Walken]

What's a drive by?