The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[DeluxeMoustache]

Bennett and Tkachuk had similar rookie seasons with similar linemates.

Gulutzan failed to develop Bennett. Last year Tkachuk played with an absolutely excellent centre, Backlund, doing the heavy lifting on the 2 way game, while Bennett spent a lot of time stapled to the corpse of James Neal. Not comparable

Maybe Bennett doesn’t match Tkachuk’s 77 points in that role, but I suspect he would put up good numbers for a top 6 winger on a contending team.

This team is deep and good. Tkachuk is excellent and makes them better, but I believe there are players that can capitalize on opportunities, and this tram is still a playoff team without Tkachuk

Hopefully we don’t have to see that I am right

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Actually, many of the RFA's have done just that. They've signed 2-3 year deals because they want to maximize their earnings over their entire careers. So, they want to have the leverage of being UFA's as soon as possible.

They think differently than you. They know they will make millions regardless. They are willing to gamble that they will make lots more than signing the 8 year deal at $8M or so. If Tkachuk puts up 80 points for 2 seasons, he's likely looking at an 8-year deal at $11M in 2 years.

I get there are some that do this but then why are the best RFAs consistently pushing the envelope to sign mid-longer term deals? Yeah some of the guys have signed shorter term, but most of them don't stack up against elite forwards like Matthews, Nylander, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Marner, Aho etc who know they can, at minimum secure a lucrative long term deal or a mid range length and a walk to UFA.

If Tkachuk signs a 2 year deal and puts up 60 points for 2 seasons, he's likely looking at another short term, much lower AAV contract. It's a really big if.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

There is no way someone passes up possibly $50-60M guaranteed for a 2 year deal unless they completely panic at this point. There is just way too much that could go wrong in terms of injury, performance or even CBA hindrances down the road. Any number of things could result in a player never being able to recoup those potential earnings back.

Tre isn't simply going to let Tkachuk rot for a year and significantly limit his team. It's not that simple at all. Something will get done eventually. It's his ass on the line as well if the team takes a step back because he couldn't get a deal done as much as it is on Tkachuk.

Nobody says that your guaranteed contract is being offered.

On the flip side, Tkachuk can decide on Dec 1 if he would like to take zero of the 6 million dollars he was offered for the year.

That’s what a negotiation involves. If you are going to take a position, you accept the potential consequences. I’m glad Tre is doing his job and not you

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Let's just not start the whole Bennett debate again....

Then don't make objectively false claims.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Nobody says that your guaranteed contract is being offered.

On the flip side, Tkachuk can decide on Dec 1 if he would like to take zero of the 6 million dollars he was offered for the year.

That’s what a negotiation involves. If you are going to take a position, you accept the potential consequences. I’m glad Tre is doing his job and not you

You should give Tre a call then since you apparently know exactly what is going on and how to solve the problem. In the meantime the Flames will have lost out on nearly half a season from their 3rd best player. I wouldn't call that a shrewd business move in any way shape or form.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

There is no way someone passes up possibly $50-60M guaranteed for a 2 year deal unless they completely panic at this point.

So, you are saying that Tkachuk would accept an $8-year deal at a shade over $6M over a 2-year deal at $6.5M?

IMO, you could not be more wrong.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

You should give Tre a call then since you apparently know exactly what is going on and how to solve the problem. In the meantime the Flames will have lost out on nearly half a season from their 3rd best player. I wouldn't call that a shrewd business move in any way shape or form.

This? Pfft

I’m pretty sure Tre knows what’s going on.

He wants the player in the lineup, and the player wants more from the team, be it money or term, or combination, than he is offering.

The answer isn’t just to cave. That’s not how negotiations work.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

I get there are some that do this but then why are the best RFAs consistently pushing the envelope to sign mid-longer term deals? Yeah some of the guys have signed shorter term, but most of them don't stack up against elite forwards like Matthews, Nylander, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Marner, Aho etc who know they can, at minimum secure a lucrative long term deal or a mid range length and a walk to UFA.

If Tkachuk signs a 2 year deal and puts up 60 points for 2 seasons, he's likely looking at another short term, much lower AAV contract. It's a really big if.

If Tkachuk signs a 2-year deal and puts up 60 points, he'll still get a raise.

Today, players want to sign deals that ensure they won't become UFA's at an age that is non-advantageous to them. Or they make sure the cap hit is huge like Marner did. Plus Marner and everyone else knew he intended to stay in Toronto anyway.

Premium RFA's want either short term or mid-term to take them to UFA, or long term at huge numbers.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

I get there are some that do this but then why are the best RFAs consistently pushing the envelope to sign mid-longer term deals? Yeah some of the guys have signed shorter term, but most of them don't stack up against elite forwards like Matthews, Nylander, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Marner, Aho etc who know they can, at minimum secure a lucrative long term deal or a mid range length and a walk to UFA.

If Tkachuk signs a 2 year deal and puts up 60 points for 2 seasons, he's likely looking at another short term, much lower AAV contract. It's a really big if.

Not if his QO is +$8.0 m.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Then don't make objectively false claims.

Man you just love to troll. Wish I had that amount of time on my hands. Please educate me on my objectively false claims.

[mdubz]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Bennett and Tkachuk had similar rookie seasons with similar linemates.

Gulutzan failed to develop Bennett. Last year Tkachuk played with an absolutely excellent centre, Backlund, doing the heavy lifting on the 2 way game, while Bennett spent a lot of time stapled to the corpse of James Neal. Not comparable

Maybe Bennett doesn’t match Tkachuk’s 77 points in that role, but I suspect he would put up good numbers for a top 6 winger on a contending team.

This team is deep and good. Tkachuk is excellent and makes them better, but I believe there are players that can capitalize on opportunities, and this tram is still a playoff team without Tkachuk

Hopefully we don’t have to see that I am right

Bennett gets his chances. The difference is he has zero finishing ability, compared to Tkachuk. Not sure that Backlund as his centre would help that much.

[SuperMatt18]

I do wish there was a little more clarity on what the ask was from each side in the public...IMO the public pressure on the Marner camp is what ended up pushing that one forward. Could use something similar here.

And personally I feel like based on the comparables out there, there is a pretty clear solution available.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Really if you look at Boeser, Draisaitl, and Aho as his closest comparable players based on production the last two years then I think the deal becomes more clear.

The last two seasons in all situations:

Goals/60
Boeser: 1.37
Tkachuk: 1.35
Draisaitl: 1.34
Aho: 1.16

Points/60
Draisaitl: 3.13
Tkachuk: 2.93
Aho: 2.91
Boeser:2.77

So that's the comparable grouping.

Aho: 5 years @ $8.5M
Draisaitl: 6 years @ $8.5M remaining
Boeser: 3 years @ $5.875M

So I think for him you could say that a 3 year deal would be a similar value to Boeser, and then tack on 3 more years at a higher value after that. Also that type of salary structure, let's you maybe pay a lower "Gio/Johnny Cap" real salary those first three years.

Say something like this:

19/20: $6.75M
20/21: $6.75M
21/22: $6.75M
22/23: $9.5M
23/24: $10.25M
24/25: $11.0M

That gets you to $51M for 6 years, and an $8.5M cap hit for the 6 years. That feels pretty fair to both sides to me, and in line with his closest comparable players.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

So for forwards you've now had Marner sign 6 years at $10.9M, and Konecny sign at 6 years at $5.5M.

Marner: 241 GP, 224 PTS (94 points last season)

Konecny: 233 GP, 124 PTS (49 points last season)

Tkachuk falls directly in the middle of those two from a points perspective. Marner has 50 more points over his career, (+17 last season), Konecny has 50 fewer (-27 last season)

Tkachuk: 224 GP, 174 PTS (77 points last season)

Assuming that Tkachuk falls right in the middle of those two contracts on a 6 year deal that would put him at $8.2M for 6 years. Tkachuk is a year younger than both, and had a better contract year than Konecny, so you are probably looking at a bit of a premium there, so say $8.5M for 6 years.

6 years, around $8.5M AAV and get him into training camp.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Not if his QO is +$8.0 m.

He would be qualified and likely take to arbitration in that instance? Or is this not an option for some reason? Would seem quite odd for the team to just pony up and pay him $8M when they have options to get around that if his play had deteriorated.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by 868904

I really don't think the Marner contract has any relevance.

Aho is the best comparable at 5 years $8.5 million. Aho has the premium position but Tkachuk brings more to the table other than scoring. The advanced stats all suggest they are similar.

Tkachuk camp asking $9.5, Flames countering at $7.5. Pretty easy to see where the contract should be.

Just go in the middle and be done with it. This drags on into the season and the first year is wasted.

Flames need to move up here. The market is the market. At some point, you are just being stubborn. If you have to move some players to get it done, you do it. There are players on the fringe who could be moved to make the cap space: Frolik, Czarnik, Jankowski.

And Tkachuk's party needs to move down. "The market" may be the market, but it looks to me that that is still far from set, and remains pretty fluid. Yeah, Aho's deal is a good comparable, but so are William Karlsson's, Brock Boeser's and Timo Maier's.

I just don't think things are so abundantly clear right now where Tkachuk falls within that group.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

This? Pfft

I’m pretty sure Tre knows what’s going on.

He wants the player in the lineup, and the player wants more from the team, be it money or term, or combination, than he is offering.

The answer isn’t just to cave. That’s not how negotiations work.

Thanks for the negotiating 101 course. Given your vast negotiating expertise, you'd think you'd advise the other party (Tkachuk) not to simply cave and accept your idea of a take it or leave it offer? Seems like quite the double standard.

It's so simple in your world - sign it or sit out Matthew. No sweat off Trelivings back? This would be an absolute disaster for Tre and the Flames.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I do wish there was a little more clarity on what the ask was from each side in the public...IMO the public pressure on the Marner camp is what ended up pushing that one forward. Could use something similar here.

And personally I feel like based on the comparables out there, there is a pretty clear solution available.





6 years, around $8.5M AAV and get him into training camp.

You have made a fair case for valuation for a 6 year term.

It exceeds the available cap space by over 2 million.

If you are Tre, how do you just go ahead and get that done?
And once you paint yourself in to a corner, how might your fellow GMs offer to help you out?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

You should give Tre a call then since you apparently know exactly what is going on and how to solve the problem. In the meantime the Flames will have lost out on nearly half a season from their 3rd best player. I wouldn't call that a shrewd business move in any way shape or form.

Matthew Tkachuk is not the Flames's third best player.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

You have made a fair case for valuation for a 6 year term.

It exceeds the available cap space by over 2 million.

If you are Tre, how do you just go ahead and get that done?
And once you paint yourself in to a corner, how might your fellow GMs offer to help you out?

It's actually not that hard. They only need to move one of Czarnik or Jankowski to make it work, don't feel like those contracts should be hard to move.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

You actually only need to put Valimaki on LTIR and move one of Czarnik or Jankowski. Sign one of the PTOs to $700k.

FORWARDS (13)
Right wing: Dillon Dubé ($778,333) - Andrew Mangiapane ($715,000) - Michael Frolík ($4,300,000) - Tobias Rieder ($700,000)
Centre: Sean Monahan ($6,375,000) - Elias Lindholm ($4,850,000) - Mikael Backlund ($5,350,000) - Derek Ryan ($3,125,000) - Mark Jankowski ($1,675,000)
Left wing: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000) - Matthew Tkachuk ($8,500,000) - Sam Bennett ($2,550,000) - Milan Lucic ($5,250,000)

DEFENSE (7)
Right: TJ Brodie ($4,650,400) - Travis Hamonic ($3,857,143) - Rasmus Andersson ($755,833) - Michael Stone ($700,000)
Left: Mark Giordano ($6,750,000) - Noah Hanifin ($4,950,000) - Oliver Kylington ($730,833)

GOALTENDER (2)
David Rittich ($2,750,000) - Cam Talbot ($2,750,000)

BUYOUTS (2)
Troy Brouwer ($1,500,000) - Michael Stone ($1,166,667)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Cap Hit: $81,479,209
Cap Space: $20,791

That would probably be too close to the cap. But if it's Jankowski you move instead of Czarnik then you'd have closer to $500k in cap space instead. Other option is to only go with 12 forwards and not carry any extras.

Or if they can't make a trade then you just run with 12 forwards and bury Czarnik in the minors.

The buried contract amount is $1,075,000 for this year, so he only would count as $175k against the cap in the minors.

FORWARDS (12)
Right wing: Elias Lindholm ($4,850,000) - Milan Lucic ($5,250,000) - Andrew Mangiapane ($715,000) - Dillon Dubé ($778,333)
Centre: Sean Monahan ($6,375,000) - Mikael Backlund ($5,350,000) - Derek Ryan ($3,125,000) - Mark Jankowski ($1,675,000)
Left wing: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000) - Matthew Tkachuk ($8,500,000) - Sam Bennett ($2,550,000) - Michael Frolík ($4,300,000)

DEFENSE (7)
Right: TJ Brodie ($4,650,400) - Travis Hamonic ($3,857,143) - Rasmus Andersson ($755,833) - Michael Stone ($700,000)
Left: Mark Giordano ($6,750,000) - Noah Hanifin ($4,950,000) - Oliver Kylington ($730,833)

GOALTENDER (2)
David Rittich ($2,750,000) - Cam Talbot ($2,750,000)

AHL BURIED (1)

Austin Czarnik ($175,000)

BUYOUTS (2)
Troy Brouwer ($1,500,000) - Michael Stone ($1,166,667)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 21
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Cap Hit: $80,954,209
Cap Space: $545,791

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Matthew Tkachuk is not the Flames's third best player.

Yeah he is, IMO. And he likely has more trade value than Gio.

I would assume the debatable argument is over Tkachuk, Monny and Lindholm. But everyone will have a different opinion on this. I would agree its close either way.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Man you just love to troll. Wish I had that amount of time on my hands. Please educate me on my objectively false claims.

Strange, you have the time to make nine or ten posts in this thread alone in the last hour, full of blatant misinformation, but I'm the one trolling with too much time on his hands.

But sure, since I'm such a troll

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

[Bennett] has certainly shown no ability to finish anywhere near the level of a top 6 player ... it has nothing to do with deployment.

2014-Present 5v5 Goals Per 60 Minutes


Either you are arguing that

a) the Flames have only had two (?) players with the ability to finish anywhere near the level of a so-called top six player

or

b) Bennett's sample from 18 to 22 is less valuable than Lindholm's sample from 19 to 23 because of one magic year

or

c) scoring goals in the ice time you are given is not a measure of finish, only confirmation bias is a valid measurement.

or

d) being on the ice is a measure of finish, therefore ice time should be distributed based on... ice time. But it has nothing to do with deployment.