QOTD: When will the Tkachuk contract get done?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by cowtown75

What is concerning to me is that Tkachuk's agent, Don Meehan said that their camp put together "set position" of what they figured was fair and relevant to both sides in early June. And that is where it sits. Meehan said they wanted to initiate the process early and not play the waiting game (eg. waiting for other RFA's to sign) and seeing the Aho offer sheet was a confirmation of where they figured where the market was at. This tells me two things for sure :

1) We can do away with the theory that they are waiting for other RFA's to sign first and

2) This number is most likely gonna start with and 8

I think Aho’s offer sheet in terms of the market is more about the short term than the AAV.

Or, I guess, the combination.

Tkachuk will get a contract starting with an 8, I expect that’s a foregone conclusion.

It’s the term that’s at issue.


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[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I think Aho’s offer sheet in terms of the market is more about the short term than the AAV.

Or, I guess, the combination.

Tkachuk will get a contract starting with an 8, I expect that’s a foregone conclusion.

It’s the term that’s at issue.


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If he signs a bridge deal (2-3yrs), there is no way it should start with an 8. I'm guessing you're expecting a long term deal?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by getbak

The problem with things stretching into the season is that the longer it drags out, the higher the first season cap hit becomes on the same overall deal. They use a different calculation for RFA contracts signed midseason: https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#rfa-caphit

That's why Nylander's cap hit last season was over $10 million and is under $7 million the rest of the way. If he had signed the same 6 year, $45 million deal before the season began, it would have had a $7.5 million cap hit every year.

Last year, that worked out well for the Leafs because they had cap space to spare and it gives them an extra half million in cap space for the remaining years of the deal.


That would not be good for anyone with regards to Tkachuk because the first season of the contract is where the Flames have the cap crunch. They'll have a lot more flexibility in future years.

Allowing it to stretch into the season will ultimately just cost him money.

Also bad for the player too as the number of teams that can fit the player dwindle with each passing day.

The Flames have trouble fitting in a $8.5M salary right now for sure, that goes up with every day he misses.

But if he misses 32 days on a 6x8.5 contract his cap hit is $10M and how many teams can fit that in?

These RFAs had better not over play their hand. This could be musical chairs where all the chairs are taken away in one round.

6 x 8.5 Contract

Cap Hit by day

7 $8.8
14 $9.1
21 $9.4
28 $9.8
32 $10.0

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

If he signs a bridge deal (2-3yrs), there is no way it should start with an 8. I'm guessing you're expecting a long term deal?

I don't think we'll end up in a situation where Tkachuk misses any time. If Tree can't cut cap in any trades that improve the team, I'd be surprised if there a bridge deal can't get done rather quickly. If we keep everything the same, and get Tkachuk on a bridge, we'll be below the cap comfortably and can ice a full roster. Use the Gio-cap for the bridge deal, and see if you can't do 3 years. Not ideal, as term is undoubtedly desired - but Tkachuk likely wants to get his long-term deal done when the new US TV deal is in place.

CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster

FORWARDS (12)
Right wing: Elias Lindholm ($4,850,000) - Michael Frolík ($4,300,000) - Sam Bennett ($2,550,000) - Mark Jankowski ($1,675,000)
Centre: Sean Monahan ($6,375,000) - Mikael Backlund ($5,350,000) - Dillon Dubé ($778,333) - Derek Ryan ($3,125,000)
Left wing: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000) - Matthew Tkachuk ($6,750,000 - 3 years) - Milan Lucic ($5,250,000) - Andrew Mangiapane ($1,250,000 - 3 years)

DEFENSE (6)
Right: TJ Brodie ($4,650,400) - Travis Hamonic ($3,857,143) - Rasmus Andersson ($755,833)
Left: Mark Giordano ($6,750,000) - Noah Hanifin ($4,950,000) - Oliver Kylington ($730,833)

GOALTENDER (2)
David Rittich ($2,750,000) - Cam Talbot ($2,750,000)

BUYOUTS (2)
Troy Brouwer ($1,500,000) - Michael Stone ($1,166,667)

SCRATCHED (2)
Austin Czarnik ($1,250,000) - Joe Morrow or similar player ($700,000)

LTIR (1)
Juuso Valimaki ($894,166)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Cap Hit: $80,814,209
Potential Bonuses: $322,500
Cap Space: $685,791

[mrkajz44]

I think it's more likely than not at this point that he misses some time. I don't really see the upside for him (or other premium RFAs) to cave early. Guys are starting to realize how underpaid they are early in their career and are starting to demand fair value for their services after entry level.

We are seeing this more in other sports too - the Le'Veon Bell situation is very applicable here. Guys holding out for what they think is right/fair is only going to get worse.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I think it's more likely than not at this point that he misses some time. I don't really see the upside for him (or other premium RFAs) to cave early. Guys are starting to realize how underpaid they are early in their career and are starting to demand fair value for their services after entry level.

We are seeing this more in other sports too - the Le'Veon Bell situation is very applicable here. Guys holding out for what they think is right/fair is only going to get worse.

But is there upside to holding out? I would suggest not.

At the end of the day, there is a salary cap. And thus there is a finite amount of cash for the players to split. If they succeed in getting paid more in the early years, then they can expect less in later years (or shorter careers).

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But is there upside to holding out? I would suggest not.

At the end of the day, there is a salary cap. And thus there is a finite amount of cash for the players to split. If they succeed in getting paid more in the early years, then they can expect less in later years (or shorter careers).

This is why these guys want to get paid. Teams aren't and won't be paying older players big FA contracts anymore. They have to get paid now. Its happening in other sports too.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

This is why these guys want to get paid. Teams aren't and won't be paying older players big FA contracts anymore. They have to get paid now. Its happening in other sports too.

But you can see that it is self-fulfilling right? They used to get paid in later years, but if they continue to fight for more money early, the later year contracts will continue to dry up. In the end, they aren't ahead (limited by salary cap)

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But is there upside to holding out? I would suggest not.

At the end of the day, there is a salary cap. And thus there is a finite amount of cash for the players to split. If they succeed in getting paid more in the early years, then they can expect less in later years (or shorter careers).

You answered your own question. Getting paid now is pretty important IMO.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by UKflames

I said a week into the season, once Tre shifts some bodies out, creating more space.

I think the question in the Poll doesnt really matter, but we can sort of see how this is going to go.

Right now I think the Flames have around ~$7.5M in Capspace.

If Tkachuk was was going to sign for around or less than that then the ink on the contract would likely already be dry.

So the 'when' seems like less a matter of time but of opportunity to move some bodies for cap room, which also tells us more or less where his dollars are going to land.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But you can see that it is self-fulfilling right? They used to get paid in later years, but if they continue to fight for more money early, the later year contracts will continue to dry up. In the end, they aren't ahead (limited by salary cap)

They aren't getting the large contracts later because they are anchors, not because they want them now.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

They aren't getting the large contracts later because they are anchors, not because they want them now.

That depends on the player.

However, the math does not. Same amount of money to be dispersed. Every player wants to maximize their earnings. In the aggregate, nothing changes because there is no more money with which to make change.

It's really straight-forward.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Locke

I think the question in the Poll doesnt really matter, but we can sort of see how this is going to go.

Right now I think the Flames have around ~$7.5M in Capspace.

If Tkachuk was was going to sign for around or less than that then the ink on the contract would likely already be dry.

So the 'when' seems like less a matter of time but of opportunity to move some bodies for cap room, which also tells us more or less where his dollars are going to land.

Willing to now? Maybe not. In a month he settles on a shorter term for (IMO) less than that? Quite possible.

[Mitt31]

Hope the Flames let him sit if he wants more then Gio Johnny and Money

He will need to be taught we want lots of great players to win the cup and be a dynasty

Not be like Edmonton and McDavid

Get’er done Flames

[TheScorpion]

I just can't see a three-year deal at all. I think Treliving would probably want to avoid having both Tkachuk and Gaudreau to negotiate with in the same summer.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Mitt31

Hope the Flames let him sit if he wants more then Gio Johnny and Money

He will need to be taught we want lots of great players to win the cup and be a dynasty

Not be like Edmonton and McDavid

Get’er done Flames

If BT is holding Tkachuk to some arbitrary ceiling that starts with a 6, I would suggest he should be fired. The market has changed since Monahan and Gaudreau signed, that's just reality. If Treliving doesn't want to accept reality, bad on him.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I just can't see a three-year deal at all. I think Treliving would probably want to avoid having both Tkachuk and Gaudreau to negotiate with in the same summer.

Well the good thing with a three year deal is he wouldn't have to negotiate at all. Tkachuk would just file for arbitration and be gone as a UFA as early as possible. That's why a three year deal makes no sense. Even a four year deal would be better as at least you get certainty instead of Tkachuk getting some massive arbitration awarded one year contract in 'year four.' But there's really no excuse for Brad to give him three or four years.

[shroom_cap]

I wonder if in the next CBA this is going to be a big issue. I've heard here and there that it will, but I dont know how it gets resolved. Obviously, GMs would desire these second-year contracts to become a little more manageable because it's only going to get worse from here, but what would the players union want?

I dont know if its as cut and dry as you'd think. At first glance, you might assume the union would advocate for these 2nd year players getting paid as much as possible, but we're also seeing that these contracts are taking money and roster spots away from the rest of the players in the league. I know the league is getting younger, but I just wonder where the line is drawn.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

If BT is holding Tkachuk to some arbitrary ceiling that starts with a 6, I would suggest he should be fired. The market has changed since Monahan and Gaudreau signed, that's just reality. If Treliving doesn't want to accept reality, bad on him.

The only reason the market has changed is due to the inept management in EDM and TOR grossly overpaying. Hopefully the decent GM's resist the wave and get RFA salaries back to normal. If Chucky sits a month or two so be it.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Jacks

The only reason the market has changed is due to the inept management in EDM and TOR grossly overpaying. Hopefully the decent GM's resist the wave and get RFA salaries back to normal. If Chucky sits a month or two so be it.

Why would an RFA sign for less now when they know the 8 year big Money contract won’t be there later?