Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Stay Golden]

Lucic got tired of the level of suck in Edmonton and all the crying they do up there, it was affecting him its obvious.
Lucic will bounce back and he brings his aggressive nature to a team that won the division & Finished top in the West.

Neal brings a lazy complaining attitude to a team full of whiners that finished near the bottom 7th in the division.
Neal is not bringing a winning attitude to a losing team. He is not bringing to Edmonton what they need.

Lucic on the other hand is bringing to a winning organization, the Flames what they are missing. #17 and the Flames mutually understand it's not going to be speed or goal scoring, they have plenty of that.
If Lucic "bounces back" on offence that will be just a nice bonus to this trade.
Lucic puts pain on the other team and I cant what until he blasts 97, 29, 44 and now 18. Get your popcorn!

[ComixZone]

Can you imagine if the Kadri deal had gone through, Ferland had signed here, and this trade happened?

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Ferland
Lucic - Kadri - Bennett
Mangiapane - Ryan - Dube

Giordano - Andersson
Hanifin - Hamonic
Kylngton - Valimaki

Rittich
Talbot

(Buy out Stone, dump Frolik for pick)

We would've been one hell of a difficult team to play against.

[RedHawk12]

Bingo, I think you made some great points and I agree with what you've said.

I would add that Lucic has a role on this team, even if it's as an overpaid 4th line goon. Neal didn't have any role here. I know many fans worry that Neal will score a bunch again with McDavid. Who cares. He was never going to do that here with where he would be in the lineup.

As for the NMC/expansion draft issue, I think it is a little overblown. Lucic's contract is considered "buyout proof" because there would be no cap savings for the team buying him out, which is usually the reason why a team chooses to use the buyout. But for the sake of the expansion draft, if there is a player we want to protect over Lucic, we can still buy him out. If the primary concern is we would like to protect someone instead of Lucic, the lack of cap savings would be an irrelevant, or at least secondary and negligible concern.

After sleeping on this deal, while I still don't like it, I dont really hate it as much. Just my $0.02.

[Flash Walken]

I can understand tranny calling it franchise crippling but in my opinion it was the Neal contract that was crippling. Trading for lucic is just an extension of that first awful move.

And I do think it's crippling and I don't think you can win with a 5 million dollar 4th liner and I think a lot of the dissatisfaction with the trade on this board is others posters coming to that same realization.

Maybe tre has a other blockbuster to.reverse this but I don't think so.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Can you imagine if the Kadri deal had gone through, Ferland had signed here, and this trade happened?

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Ferland
Lucic - Kadri - Bennett
Mangiapane - Ryan - Dube

Giordano - Andersson
Hanifin - Hamonic
Kylngton - Valimaki

Rittich
Talbot

(Buy out Stone, dump Frolik for pick)

We would've been one hell of a difficult team to play against.

The Red Mile Rumblers!!

[smiggy77]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

Reading is hard. So many chicken-little crying over the NMC. The Flames Facebook feed, is full of so many idiots posting inaccuracies, it’s shocking that these are devoted fans.



https://www.capfriendly.com/players/milan-lucic


https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-202...ed/c-302586918

NMC = requires protecting.
NTC = does not.

I want to think, that this will be the last post on the matter, but really I shouldn’t underestimate.

lol reading is hard...

[Fire]

I think we need a skate off between Neal and Lucic. The hype in Alberta would be higher than Bailey vs Johnson.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I can understand tranny calling it franchise crippling but in my opinion it was the Neal contract that was crippling. Trading for lucic is just an extension of that first awful move.

And I do think it's crippling and I don't think you can win with a 5 million dollar 4th liner and I think a lot of the dissatisfaction with the trade on this board is others posters coming to that same realization.

Maybe tre has a other blockbuster to.reverse this but I don't think so.

For sure it started with that deal and the subsequent on ice play.

This just digs the hole a WHOLE lot bigger though and for a variety of reasons.

Again this is just a bad contract (Neal) being put on steroids.

Truly feels like a move out of desperation and those very rarely ever work out

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Fire

I think we need a skate off between Neal and Lucic. The hype in Alberta would be higher than Bailey vs Johnson.

Like some sort of race between them?

There's no time for that, pre season starts in 2 months!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Fire

I think we need a skate off between Neal and Lucic. The hype in Alberta would be higher than Bailey vs Johnson.

Both will end up with fake pulled hamstrings.

[Bingo]

My other confusion point is play driving.

Staples earlier this week pointed out that Lucic was one of the Oiler's best in corsi etc. That seemed odd to me so I looked it up and he is.

Fine I thought ... but they must be low impact events ... nope he's up there on scoring chance splits and high danger splits, as well as expected goal splits.

None of that fits with what I saw in Oiler games, but the stats are pretty irrefutable.

Some numbers ...

Flames (14 forwards with 200+ minutes)

James Neal was
12th in CF%
13th in SF%
13th in GF%
13th in xGF%
13th in SCF%
12th in HDCF%
5th in offensive zone starts

His one stat to hang on as an Edmonton fan ... 14th in on ice shooting percentage

Oilers (15 forwards with 200+ minutes)

Milan Lucic was
4th in CF%
5th in SF%
7th in GF%
3rd in xGF%
4th in SCF%
4th in HDCF%
12th in offensive zone starts
10th in on ice shooting percentage

Crazy ... Lucic wasn't sheltered, drove play, and should have been a top five point producer on a bad team.

Will be interesting to watch those numbers in Calgary

[monkeyman]

Originally Posted by Fire

I think we need a skate off between Neal and Lucic. The hype in Alberta would be higher than Bailey vs Johnson.

I think after they race, they should drop the gloves.

[Titan]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Neal is far too slow to keep up with McDavid. It was the same problem Lucic had with McDavid.

Nope. Connor McCollarbone will enter the zone, hair on fire, be forced outside, but just like NHL '09 he will fly around the net, back towards the blue line and, just on time, Neal will be entering the zone for the pass behind all the players concentrating on McShoelaceforbelt.

Brilliant.

[Strange Brew]

It would be a total dick move for Lucic not to waive his NMC for the expansion draft. It’s a paper transaction that is ultra low on my list of concerns.

But did Flames not know Neal was an arrogant jerk when they signed him? Come on, that was widely known. And at the time it was what they thought they needed. Yikes what a blunder.

[Titan]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

The worst part of this trade is it feels like all of that mocking of the Oilers + Lucic since July 1st 2016 was a waste.

You bite your tongue, sir. Mocking of the Oilers is NEVER a waste.

[Stay Golden]

Originally Posted by Fire

I think we need a skate off between Neal and Lucic. The hype in Alberta would be higher than Bailey vs Johnson.

Lol that would be outstanding. I bet Lucic would win that his competition level would rise, He is the kind of guy that wouldn't fake that pulled hammy. He would horse collar Neal to not lose lol.

[mikeecho]

Originally Posted by Igottago

Two days ago this things would have looked very different in this forum when it comes to the analysis of Lucic. Let's not pretend we aren't desperately looking for positives now that he's a Flame.

In fairness, let’s not pretend like this forum is an objective evaluation of anything related to the Oilers. Don’t get me wrong, I love that part of this forum but if anyone is looking for an objective perspective, you’d need to dial this place down 25-30%. There are people here who think McDavid isn’t that good!!!

[darthma]

Originally Posted by Stay Golden

Lucic got tired of the level of suck in Edmonton and all the crying they do up there, it was affecting him its obvious.
Lucic will bounce back and he brings his aggressive nature to a team that won the division & Finished top in the West.

Neal brings a lazy complaining attitude to a team full of whiners that finished near the bottom 7th in the division.
Neal is not bringing a winning attitude to a losing team. He is not bringing to Edmonton what they need.

Lucic on the other hand is bringing to a winning organization, the Flames what they are missing. #17 and the Flames mutually understand it's not going to be speed or goal scoring, they have plenty of that.
If Lucic "bounces back" on offence that will be just a nice bonus to this trade.
Lucic puts pain on the other team and I cant what until he blasts 97, 29, 44 and now 18. Get your popcorn!

I admire the spin on this, but I do not want Lucic on the ice when McDavid is out there.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Bingo

My other confusion point is play driving.

Staples earlier this week pointed out that Lucic was one of the Oiler's best in corsi etc. That seemed odd to me so I looked it up and he is.

Fine I thought ... but they must be low impact events ... nope he's up there on scoring chance splits and high danger splits, as well as expected goal splits.

None of that fits with what I saw in Oiler games, but the stats are pretty irrefutable.

Some numbers ...

Flames (14 forwards with 200+ minutes)

James Neal was
12th in CF%
13th in SF%
13th in GF%
13th in xGF%
13th in SCF%
12th in HDCF%
5th in offensive zone starts

His one stat to hang on as an Edmonton fan ... 14th in on ice shooting percentage

Oilers (15 forwards with 200+ minutes)

Milan Lucic was
4th in CF%
5th in SF%
7th in GF%
3rd in xGF%
4th in SCF%
4th in HDCF%
12th in offensive zone starts
10th in on ice shooting percentage

Crazy ... Lucic wasn't sheltered, drove play, and should have been a top five point producer on a bad team.

Will be interesting to watch those numbers in Calgary

Are there any McDavid effects there? Do the stars allow you to separate minutes played with McDavid and minutes without them for all players. These numbers appear to suggest that points were scored when he was on the ice but he didn’t get the conventional counting stats

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by transplant99

For sure it started with that deal and the subsequent on ice play.

This just digs the hole a WHOLE lot bigger though and for a variety of reasons.

Again this is just a bad contract (Neal) being put on steroids.

Truly feels like a move out of desperation and those very rarely ever work out

I also agree this has desperation written all over it.

I think when Maloney said they went to bed thinking they had a major deal done when the only flames rumour at the time was the flames being front runners for Mark Stone, and then Treliving saying the Ottawa ask was 2x1sts + valimaki and Andersson, I think the flames were desperate to move Neal THEN.

I think that's how desperate they were to move Neal. I think they were seriously going to pay that price for stone if it meant moving Neal to Ottawa at the deadline.

And I also think the pro scouting report around Neal last year was so bad Ottawa was not willing to take Neal even with valimaki and Andersson and 2x1sts coming back, because James Neal is done as a hockey player and they did not want a 20 million dollar salary liability to buyout.

And I think based on their evaluation that Ottawa was right considering what Toronto paid to dump a single year of Marleau.

The flames tried to jump start their competitive window and it backfired horrifically. Mostly I think that is flames ownership MO and not tre, but ultimately he is signing the contracts and doing the deals.

I've been through several if these now as a flames fan and while it isnt close to the phaneuf deal in terms of being terrible, it certainly has that same stink if desperation to it.

If lucic is awful to start the season or if Talbot is not good that's probably it for treliving by Christmas.