Mid-tier compared to say an Avengers: Endgame or Star Wars: Rise is the Skywalker. Top Gun will do well but I think it’s absolute box office max is $250M.
People in my age group who grew up with that movie are going to be all over it. I bet it does more than 300, and more if the younger people get into it.
That's just a wacky tier system. You have a "no-tier" in your tier system!
If you look at all the movies that have made $300M+, it's a list that's pretty inclusively: superheroes, star wars, pop culture franchises (Twilight, LOTR, HP) and animated (Disney/Pixar and Dreamworks).
Anything over $200M is huge, especially for something not geared towards children.
That's just a wacky tier system. You have a "no-tier" in your tier system!
If you look at all the movies that have made $300M+, it's a list that's pretty inclusively: superheroes, star wars, pop culture franchises (Twilight, LOTR, HP) and animated (Disney/Pixar and Dreamworks).
Anything over $200M is huge, especially for something not geared towards children.
Right but my tiers are about the expectations, not necessarily the result.
How come with Venom and Solo, with identical "huge" $213M domestic gross, one is a big success and one is a disappointment? Because one would've been projected to hit low-tier, but hit mid-tier, and the other projected top tier, fell to mid-tier. It's just a predictive model I use to gauge relative commercial success of a movie and it's almost always spot on. Same with Logan being a runaway success at $226M and Justice League a disappointment at $229M.
I'm also saying $250M max right now. If I had to make a bet, today, I'm not sure I would even go over $200M. It's still a Tom Cruise lead movie which, outside the Mission: Impossible franchise, his movies have struggled to break even $100M for the last 15 years. It's a sequel to a well known and loved 80's movie which should give it a boost, but it's also coming out in the middle of summer, two weeks before another sequel to a well known and loved 80's movie (Ghostbusters) and three weeks before a big original Christopher Nolan action movie. So, while it'll likely hit a decent opening weekend from all the fans, it'll also likely struggle to have legs through the rest of the summer, unless it's really good. Before this very well received trailer I would've been nervous to even give it $150M, but this raised it's stock quite a bit.
Sorry, I just really like box office stuff lol. We do a pool at work predicting box office results, so I'm kind of deep in to it.
Right but my tiers are about the expectations, not necessarily the result.
How come with Venom and Solo, with identical "huge" $213M domestic gross, one is a big success and one is a disappointment? Because one would've been projected to hit low-tier, but hit mid-tier, and the other projected top tier, fell to mid-tier. It's just a predictive model I use to gauge relative commercial success of a movie and it's almost always spot on. Same with Logan being a runaway success at $226M and Justice League a disappointment at $229M.
I'm also saying $250M max right now. If I had to make a bet, today, I'm not sure I would even go over $200M. It's still a Tom Cruise lead movie which, outside the Mission: Impossible franchise, his movies have struggled to break even $100M for the last 15 years. It's a sequel to a well known and loved 80's movie which should give it a boost, but it's also coming out in the middle of summer, two weeks before another sequel to a well known and loved 80's movie (Ghostbusters) and three weeks before a big original Christopher Nolan action movie. So, while it'll likely hit a decent opening weekend from all the fans, it'll also likely struggle to have legs through the rest of the summer, unless it's really good. Before this very well received trailer I would've been nervous to even give it $150M, but this raised it's stock quite a bit.
Sorry, I just really like box office stuff lol. We do a pool at work predicting box office results, so I'm kind of deep in to it.
Venom made over $800 million internationally on a $100 million budget. It made profits of hundreds of millions.
Solo made $392 million on a $275 million budget, it lost a huge amount of money.
That's just a wacky tier system. You have a "no-tier" in your tier system!
If you look at all the movies that have made $300M+, it's a list that's pretty inclusively: superheroes, star wars, pop culture franchises (Twilight, LOTR, HP) and animated (Disney/Pixar and Dreamworks).
Anything over $200M is huge, especially for something not geared towards children.
Yeah Disney probably should probably have it's own scale at this point.
Dumbo made $352 million world wide and that was seen as a failure.
Even Toy Story 4 at $0.8B probably falls short of expectations considering TS3 made $1B worldwide.
They are over $6B worldwide for their movies so far this year though, and that's only counting 5 movies.
Endgame: $2.8B
Captain Marvel: $1.1B
Aladdin: $1B
Toy Story 4: $0.8B
Dumbo: $0.35B
The Following User Says Thank You to SuperMatt18 For This Useful Post:
because the budget doesn't include promotion and distribution iirc
Why not include that in the budget number? It is misleading to state otherwise. I know there is a box office thread and I generally could care less on how much money movies make, but why do they need to be misleading with the numbers? You could at least say production budget, and then imply that promotion and distributions costs are typically 1/3 more.
