Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

NDP will probably subsidize gas prices to keep it down. Then what? Unfortunately patience is the best approach here. NDP isn't going to force a snap election right now by pissing off the Greens. As much as people want this to be straightforward, it's just not. Trying to bully this through is unlikely to work and is more likely to have the opposite effect of hardening opposition.

Unfortunately nothing much is going to work at this point, we're basically screwed and have been screwed on this file.


From a Federal Standpoint, they could have done way more then they did. Appeal the FAC ruling, declare the pipeline in the national interest etc etc.


But they didn't they sat on their asses and got cornered into buying the pipeline.


Provinically Notley talked a lot but her actions on this were a combination of hands sitting or backing down.


Wine ban backed down on
The whole stomping scene with the there is no carbon tax without Alberta and then . . . nothing
Yes turning off the tapes, especially after the courts said we were in our rights to do it.


The concept of social license completely failed, she got stabbed in the back to the point where she went to the Federal Government for help on the train cars and was basically ignored.


She was incredibly silent on C-69 and C-48 up until the last week of the election.


Look, there's nothing wrong with putting some pressure on the Federal Government and BC provincial government. When Trudeau sat there grinning with Horgan while handing out a big novelty check after BC had run to court again to block the pipeline was a slap in Notley face.



She can talk about going out and talking to people, but really she's been highly ineffective. Quebec and the no appetite for pipelines. The Trudeau government doing very little, BC constantly blocking.


At this point, its nice to say well 6/10 BC'ers support the pipeline, but at the end of the day does that change their voting habits in the next election, I doubt it, I expect another 4 years of the NDP government blocking the pipeline.


At this point, there's nothing to be lost by being a lot more force ful. We've spent the last 4 years with the honey approach, and frankly it hasn't yielded any results, instead its resulted in harm to our economy and a massive loss of investment.



I have zero faith in any pipeline construction happening in the next few years. There are too many factors against it, and the soft approach has emboldened those that want to stop it.

[OMG!WTF!]

Yes turning off the tapes, especially after the courts said we were in our rights to do it.

I don't think the court said that we have a right to do it. The bill hadn't been enacted at the time of the challenge so there was nothing for them to rule on. They just said come back when there's a law on the books and when you have something to complain about.

[stang]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

Turning off the taps, as good as it would feel, is the easiest way to turn the fencesitters in BC against us. We’d go from a majority supporting pipelines (6/10) to nobody supporting us literally overnight.

They dont want a pipeline? Turn off the existing ones. It would take a competent leader to just say, this is what your government is telling us to do. Issue isnt with the people its your leaders. See how long they love $2+ gas

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Horgan's recent comments lead me to believe the only reason they're opposing TM is because the Greenies demand it.

Which would itself represent a cautionary tale for electoral reform fetishists.

[Flames0910]

That's hardly under the radar. BC produces a ton of natural gas and they want to ship it overseas.

Keep this in mind when you think about anything at all, because it will help you every time you deal with somebody: What are their own self-interests?

Thanks for the condescension, but let's play this out. Their self interest will be to get gas prices lowered. How does that happen? Their government bails them out, then they go to war with "the rednecks in Alberta" (who have also cut the carbon tax). So they dig in their heels on all the pipelines, fight back by blocking our other resources from reaching port, and they fight the legislation in court (and probably win).

Maybe Coastal GasLink survives because it's on steadier legal footing. But Trans Mountain gets cancelled by Trudeau because we dropped the carbon tax. And in a scorched earth war like that, do you expect the nuance of "this one's natural gas so it's OK" to actually hold up? Because from where I'm standing, if we turn off the taps, there's a good chance we never get a pipe built.

[stang]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

Thanks for the condescension, but let's play this out. Their self interest will be to get gas prices lowered. How does that happen? Their government bails them out, then they go to war with "the rednecks in Alberta" (who have also cut the carbon tax). So they dig in their heels on all the pipelines, fight back by blocking our other resources from reaching port, and they fight the legislation in court (and probably win).

Maybe Coastal GasLink survives because it's on steadier legal footing. But Trans Mountain gets cancelled by Trudeau because we dropped the carbon tax. And in a scorched earth war like that, do you expect the nuance of "this one's natural gas so it's OK" to actually hold up? Because from where I'm standing, if we turn off the taps, there's a good chance we never get a pipe built.

Scheer is going to drop it in October.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

Thanks for the condescension, but let's play this out. Their self interest will be to get gas prices lowered. How does that happen? Their government bails them out, then they go to war with "the rednecks in Alberta" (who have also cut the carbon tax). So they dig in their heels on all the pipelines, fight back by blocking our other resources from reaching port, and they fight the legislation in court (and probably win).

Maybe Coastal GasLink survives because it's on steadier legal footing. But Trans Mountain gets cancelled by Trudeau because we dropped the carbon tax. And in a scorched earth war like that, do you expect the nuance of "this one's natural gas so it's OK" to actually hold up? Because from where I'm standing, if we turn off the taps, there's a good chance we never get a pipe built.

Well he didn't push all that hard when we had social license so that would be no surprise.


I fully expect that this Bill C-69 Bill C-48 is nothing but a public relations tour and both are going to pass un-modified and the environmental and FN groups will find a way to force Trudeau to take Transmountain back to square one and re-assess it under these bills which will probably kill it dead.


Frankly though, if Trudeau holds Transmountain hostage over the carbon tax after Alberta lead the way on a carbon tax and got nothing, I would expect that we will see a huge amount of rage in this province against Ottawa.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

Thanks for the condescension, but let's play this out. Their self interest will be to get gas prices lowered. How does that happen? Their government bails them out, then they go to war with "the rednecks in Alberta" (who have also cut the carbon tax). So they dig in their heels on all the pipelines, fight back by blocking our other resources from reaching port, and they fight the legislation in court (and probably win).

Maybe Coastal GasLink survives because it's on steadier legal footing. But Trans Mountain gets cancelled by Trudeau because we dropped the carbon tax. And in a scorched earth war like that, do you expect the nuance of "this one's natural gas so it's OK" to actually hold up? Because from where I'm standing, if we turn off the taps, there's a good chance we never get a pipe built.

Sorry, I didn't mean to be patronizing.

The Greenies have one agenda, the BC NDP have another, their only real common aligned interest is remaining in power. Thusly the curious decisions that keep happening.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

Thanks for the condescension, but let's play this out. Their self interest will be to get gas prices lowered. How does that happen? Their government bails them out, then they go to war with "the rednecks in Alberta" (who have also cut the carbon tax). So they dig in their heels on all the pipelines, fight back by blocking our other resources from reaching port, and they fight the legislation in court (and probably win).

Maybe Coastal GasLink survives because it's on steadier legal footing. But Trans Mountain gets cancelled by Trudeau because we dropped the carbon tax. And in a scorched earth war like that, do you expect the nuance of "this one's natural gas so it's OK" to actually hold up? Because from where I'm standing, if we turn off the taps, there's a good chance we never get a pipe built.

This doesn't make any sense.

If the feds lose the lawsuit they will just retool and bring out something else if they win the election. Till then Alberta will have the federal carbon tax imposed.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Unfortunately nothing much is going to work at this point, we're basically screwed and have been screwed on this file.


From a Federal Standpoint, they could have done way more then they did. Appeal the FAC ruling, declare the pipeline in the national interest etc etc.


But they didn't they sat on their asses and got cornered into buying the pipeline.


Provinically Notley talked a lot but her actions on this were a combination of hands sitting or backing down.


Wine ban backed down on
The whole stomping scene with the there is no carbon tax without Alberta and then . . . nothing
Yes turning off the tapes, especially after the courts said we were in our rights to do it.


The concept of social license completely failed, she got stabbed in the back to the point where she went to the Federal Government for help on the train cars and was basically ignored.


She was incredibly silent on C-69 and C-48 up until the last week of the election.


Look, there's nothing wrong with putting some pressure on the Federal Government and BC provincial government. When Trudeau sat there grinning with Horgan while handing out a big novelty check after BC had run to court again to block the pipeline was a slap in Notley face.



She can talk about going out and talking to people, but really she's been highly ineffective. Quebec and the no appetite for pipelines. The Trudeau government doing very little, BC constantly blocking.


At this point, its nice to say well 6/10 BC'ers support the pipeline, but at the end of the day does that change their voting habits in the next election, I doubt it, I expect another 4 years of the NDP government blocking the pipeline.


At this point, there's nothing to be lost by being a lot more force ful. We've spent the last 4 years with the honey approach, and frankly it hasn't yielded any results, instead its resulted in harm to our economy and a massive loss of investment.



I have zero faith in any pipeline construction happening in the next few years. There are too many factors against it, and the soft approach has emboldened those that want to stop it.

What's your take on NDP support for moving oil by rail

[Ozy_Flame]

Listening to the Daveberta podcast yesterday, they said it's probable Trudeau just pushes any green light on TMX now until at least October in response to a Jason Kenney win. I don't think it gets cancelled, but even after approval it's going to get punted. I believe Trudeau's cabinet is preparing for a hostile and uncooperative Alberta, and is probably going to delay any "go-forward" plan with it until after the next election.

[Shazam]

Nah. If Kenney gets elected, he's first going to try to be nice to the feds.

Thing is, Trudeau is such a moron and so immature, I'm not sure he actually understands anything at all.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Listening to the Daveberta podcast yesterday, they said it's probable Trudeau just pushes any green light on TMX now until at least October in response to a Jason Kenney win. I don't think it gets cancelled, but even after approval it's going to get punted. I believe Trudeau's cabinet is preparing for a hostile and uncooperative Alberta, and is probably going to delay any "go-forward" plan with it until after the next election.

If Trudeau is re-elected I fully expect them to turf it. They won't until after the election though.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Listening to the Daveberta podcast yesterday, they said it's probable Trudeau just pushes any green light on TMX now until at least October in response to a Jason Kenney win. I don't think it gets cancelled, but even after approval it's going to get punted. I believe Trudeau's cabinet is preparing for a hostile and uncooperative Alberta, and is probably going to delay any "go-forward" plan with it until after the next election.

You think they care one iota what Alberta thinks about anything?

If so, explain bill C 48.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Listening to the Daveberta podcast yesterday, they said it's probable Trudeau just pushes any green light on TMX now until at least October in response to a Jason Kenney win. I don't think it gets cancelled, but even after approval it's going to get punted. I believe Trudeau's cabinet is preparing for a hostile and uncooperative Alberta, and is probably going to delay any "go-forward" plan with it until after the next election.

If Trudeau unnecessarily delays a much needed project that they paid tax payer money for because Kenney is a big meanie and won't acquiesce to every Liberal mandate like Notley did then he is a bigger moron than I thought. Not saying it won't happen, it's definitely a possibility but I'm sick of this Stockholm syndrome that we have to have a Liberal sycophant as premier saying pretty pretty please for endless months before our government decides we're worthy and grants the pipeline like the benevolent rulers they are.

If Kenney does anything overly antagonistic before this May deadline he's an idiot. If Trudeau holds off on TMX because he doesn't like Kenney, he's an idiot.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by transplant99

You think they care one iota what Alberta thinks about anything?

If so, explain bill C 48.

I think the Liberal gov't is very, very slowly realizing that Alberta's money is extremely vital to confederation.

Slowly.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Unfortunately nothing much is going to work at this point, we're basically screwed and have been screwed on this file.


From a Federal Standpoint, they could have done way more then they did. Appeal the FAC ruling, declare the pipeline in the national interest etc etc.


But they didn't they sat on their asses and got cornered into buying the pipeline.


Provinically Notley talked a lot but her actions on this were a combination of hands sitting or backing down.

From a provincial standpoint, the only thing to do was read the Court of Appeals ruling and wait for the NEB to make the required adjustments - namely considering the tankers and consulting with the Indigenous communities. Which is what happened.

And, assuming it's approved after rectifying the mistakes, if BC still wants to cause problems that's when you look at utilizing Bill 12.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

So you’re saying no solutions you like have been proposed not that no solutions have been proposed.

No reasonable solutions. We aren't seceding, and if we do that sure as hell isn't getting our now completely landlocked province to the coasts. You can't not pay equalization payments, you try not paying your taxes (especially in the billions of dollars) and see how long that lasts. And bringing in Alberta's militiary is what? Didn't we get rid of our subs at West Ed? I'm assuming that would also be an act of war of the New Country of Alberta taking on Canada...

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Alberta is seemingly running out of options, you’re right about that. But the solutions / options you propose are in fact solutions and options you just don’t like them.

They aren't any more reasonable than saying let's just use donkeys to transport our bootleg oil across the world. Except that idea is more viable.

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Personally I’m surprised people are surprised at what happens when you try to non-sensically sabotage an entire industry and economy of a province of 3 million people. It’s as if people across Canada are shocked that these types of firm and escalating solutions are being proposed. But should they be? Look at what you’ve done to us Canada / BC / Quebec.

I feel like a lot of people misunderstand what actually happened. The project was approved, but it was appealed and the Court of Appeal (which does have some length between the Trudeau government...) said "Hey you guys are suppose to meaningfully consult with Indigenous but you didn't do any meaningful consultation, go back and do some consultation and then we can talk."

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

So, yeah, the best options are to escalate things / shut in pipelines to BC (since they don’t want it right?) move the army in to build it if necessary, etc.

No, the ONLY solution at this point is to do what the Court of Appeals said they failed to do. Consider the tankers, which they have, and consult with Indigenous, which they just finished. Now they will go back. If, and only if, there is other hiccups after that do you look at escalating things. They have Bill 12 in their back pocket - which is actually what Kenney's been telling people he would do - use a Bill made by the NDP to get the pipelines built.

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Just because you don’t like solutions doesn’t mean they aren’t solutions. Historically many many many battles / wars / tensions / trade wars / etc were all driven by economics. That’s what this is. This shouldn’t surprise anyone. And for the record I was okay with Notleys strategy, the play nice thing, but it didn’t work. Time to move on.

Again, complete misunderstanding of why, right now, the pipeline isn't being constructed. The Federal Court of Appeal said that the NEB messed up and needs to fix it. Wait for the NEB to fix it and then talk about invading the foreign Canadian lands.

[bizaro86]

I think if we want to stick it to the rest of Canada, blockading our own oil and secceding probably aren't the right move.

But opting out of the CPP in favor of a Quebec style version would be a good card to play. Alberta is younger and richer than the rest of Canada, so we overpay into that (like pretty much every federal program). If we left the CPP, our contributions could go down and everyone else's would go up. Giving folks a little taste of what Alberta does for the rest of the country has potential merit I'd say.

[DiracSpike]

I feel like a lot of people misunderstand what actually happened. The project was approved, but it was appealed and the Court of Appeal (which does have some length between the Trudeau government...) said "Hey you guys are suppose to meaningfully consult with Indigenous but you didn't do any meaningful consultation, go back and do some consultation and then we can talk."

Yeah except no one knows what constitutes "meaningful consultations". The consultations for this project took years and they talked to over 70 FN groups. Do you think they were just winging it? This court stepped in with an incoherent ruling that was politically influenced to stop the pipeline, this entire 1 year diversion has been a complete waste of time coupled with a tremendous loss of economic value for the country. The FN group that filed the suit that stopped construction didn't even give a F about being consulted, they cared about stopping the project and the proof of that is their celebrations and comments afterwards all centered on stopping the pipeline and not one word about consultations. It's completely disingenuous and guess what will happen if/when this pipeline gets approved for the second time? More lawsuits backed by foreign influence groups will get launched attacking any crack, any red herring they can find to stop the project. Consultations, upstream emissions, downstream emissions, tanker traffic, anything. Doesn't matter what it is. You're dreaming if you think this latest round will stop any controversy about consultations. It won't. This entire process is a farce.

Trudeau and his government could have insulated this project against all these nuisance suits and made the FCA irrelevant by passing senator Doug Black's bill but they didn't. It wasn't hard to see what sidetracked the pipeline eventually happening, I told his office it would happen when I wrote them a letter last year thanking them for buying the pipeline but also urging them to take further steps to insure construction. I knew it would happen then, just like it will happen now if this project gets going again.