Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by GGG

This sounds like a reason to vote for the UCP.

Honestly, the fact that we have such a suburban spread means that Calgary should 100% have toll roads, if no where else, at least at the city points of entry.

[Northendzone]

in what seems like an ominous sign for the NDP, I have seen several (maybe 8), Notley signs vandalized in my travels.

i also find it a little interesting how the NDP (in my neighborhood) have large sings posted for Notley along with smaller signs for my riding candidate - while I don't see signs for the other leaders

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Honestly, the fact that we have such a suburban spread means that Calgary should 100% have toll roads, if no where else, at least at the city points of entry.

Make Airdrie pay for it. I'm in.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

in what seems like an ominous sign for the NDP, I have seen several (maybe 8), Notley signs vandalized in my travels.

i also find it a little interesting how the NDP (in my neighborhood) have large sings posted for Notley along with smaller signs for my riding candidate - while I don't see signs for the other leaders

Same deal around me, though i havent seen any defaced.

But Notley signs along major roadways but nothing from the actual candidate beside them. I think its a first that i can remember. She is truly the only thing they have going for them and why they have framed this entire election as "Rachel isn't Jason", rather than running on policy which Albertans clearly are rejecting.

I did a quick count yesterday driving the main artery through Sundance...it was 27 UCP, 4 AB party, and 2 NDP local candidate and 1 Rachel sign.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Same deal around me, though i havent seen any defaced.

But Notley signs along major roadways but nothing from the actual candidate beside them. I think its a first that i can remember. She is truly the only thing they have going for them and why they have framed this entire election as "Rachel isn't Jason", rather than running on policy which Albertans clearly are rejecting.

I did a quick count yesterday driving the main artery through Sundance...it was 27 UCP, 4 AB party, and 2 NDP local candidate and 1 Rachel sign.

There was a TV commercial I saw last night that was basically, "Rachel isn't Jason"

The long text was something like, "I've always voted PC, and my family always voted PC, but I don't trust Jason Kenney. Even though I don't always agree with Rachel Notley I trust her to do what's best for Alberta." Or something like that.

I think it's sort of funny they realize that Albertans don't like their platform, and are essentially running on individual popularity. Almost like high school politics.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

There was a TV commercial I saw last night that was basically, "Rachel isn't Jason"

The long text was something like, "I've always voted PC, and my family always voted PC, but I don't trust Jason Kenney. Even though I don't always agree with Rachel Notley I trust her to do what's best for Alberta." Or something like that.

Ah yes the paid actor who never actually voted conservative before. Was interesting when Notley was asked questions about it.

[Flamenspiel]

Latest Polls: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...acker/alberta/

[llwhiteoutll]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

Latest Polls: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...acker/alberta/

I’d bet there will be a few NDP strategists looking for work next Wednesday. If the NDP had run their campaign on policies and their record, they probably could have closed the gap. If anything, the constant attacks on the UCP have probably done more harm to the NDP.

Almost every story I’ve seen, especially on social media, has been some variation of “Kenny/the UCP plans to do this horrible thing (with lots of hyperbole), but we’re not the UCP”, with no real description of what they plan to do. Or the relentless dredging up of old issues which very few people probably care about.

[CaptainCrunch]

That's a pretty big bump up by the UCP and the Alberta Party at the expense of the NDP. Notley really needed more then what they got in the debate.



looking at the trend line, the NDP had closed the line a little bit initially, but I think people have started to tune out on her a bit. The UCP really just needs to rag the puck at this point.


I guess Kahn's past history of being a pipeline building, constitutional lawyer who loves puppies didn't do much for him.

[Ashasx]

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

Latest Polls: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...acker/alberta/

I can't believe it took one lake of fire guy to sink the Wild Rose party. And yet dozens of kooks with Kenney being the worst of the bunch have had next to no effect on these numbers. I guess people complaining about the election being about issues less than the economy have had their complaints registered and heard.

[stang]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I can't believe it took one lake of fire guy to sink the Wild Rose party. And yet dozens of kooks with Kenney being the worst of the bunch have had next to no effect on these numbers. I guess people complaining about the election being about issues less than the economy have had their complaints registered and heard.

4 years of recession have hit people hard.

[CaptainCrunch]

You would think that the NDP would think that not having people from these groups involved or even talking about being involved would be a good idea because of the optics of it

https://twitter.com/user/status/1115260306769367040

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I can't believe it took one lake of fire guy to sink the Wild Rose party. And yet dozens of kooks with Kenney being the worst of the bunch have had next to no effect on these numbers. I guess people complaining about the election being about issues less than the economy have had their complaints registered and heard.

Timing is everything and the electoral math is different this time around. In 2012 oil was over $100/bbl and the economy was not an important election / ballot box issue. At the time the PCs also were a viable alternative for many center right voters.

Now if you fall dead center or a little right wing, to avoid voting in a UCP government you have to vote for an incompetent party whose ideological heart is closer to the Leap Manifesto activists than it is to what you're looking for at a critical time for Alberta's primary industry. That's a completely different proposition than voting for Allison Redford.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by stang

4 years of recession have hit people hard.

That, and in the 2012 election you had two options before going to the NDP. You could abandon the right wing crazies and still vote for the PCs. Now there's no middle ground (other than the AP, and psychologically, people don't like to vote for the sure loser).

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by stang

4 years of recession have hit people hard.

Runaway spending and borrowing money to operate to pile up $60,000,000,000 in outright debt.

We are already going to be paying $2,000,000,000 a year in debt servicing from now on for that NDP vote.

[llwhiteoutll]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I can't believe it took one lake of fire guy to sink the Wild Rose party. And yet dozens of kooks with Kenney being the worst of the bunch have had next to no effect on these numbers. I guess people complaining about the election being about issues less than the economy have had their complaints registered and heard.

Like stang said, people have been hit hard by the economy lately. Major companies have divested their assets here, with no real mention by Notley on how she plans to attract the billions of dollars in investment needed. Running a campaign that was primarily about vilifying Kenny/the UCP and having NDP supporters vilifying UCP supporters since day one has probably caused a lot of people to tune the NDP out at this point and entrenched those who might have been waffling at the beginning. Then you can add in Notley talking out both sides of her mouth about pipelines and oil & gas in general. And unfortunately, not as many people as the NDP might hope are single issue voters on LGBTQ issues.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Runaway spending and borrowing money to operate to pile up $60,000,000,000 in outright debt.

We are already going to be paying $2,000,000,000 a year in debt servicing from now on for that NDP vote.

If you're at all numerically inclined, it's been a real difficult 4 years watching Joe Ceci go up there every-time and completely butcher fiscal updates and talk about credit rating agency downgrades. And then a week later pose for photo ops at craft breweries and talk about how that industry was part of leading the charge to economic recovery.

It completely blows my mind that he was/is finance minister of a large province in Canada.

[CaptainCrunch]

At the end of the day, it feels like she got outflanked with Kenney, he released a campaign platform early on and he worked to stick to that campaign and matters of jobs and the economy. He also came out way ahead of her in the debate on Education and Healthcare which was personally shocking to me.



Notley didn't do a good job platform wise, it came across as we're spending a ton more money (nearly 13 billion) and then she said, oh yeah and we'll balance the budget by 2023, but her revenue estimates felt out of wack and that's something that's been a common complaint in her budgets and lead to credit downgrades.


She also over focused on how evil Kenney and the UCP is and that's fine, however negative selling very works, she didn't sell herself and what her party was going to do strategy wise if she did get re-elected.



Also the big problem is that negative campaigning is like plutonium with a very short half life, initially it can be effective and destructive to your opponent, but it never resonates for long.


When people are looking at an empty downtown, no investments coming in, her whole "Shovel in the ground" on the pipelines with no basis, and her ineffectiveness on the whole social license thing it leads to where we are at today.


If the polls are to be believed, short of something amazingly controversial by the UCP, the NDP won't be able to make up ground, its too late in the campaign now to shift gears and become platform oriented as she's been basically tuned out. I expect her to double down over the next 8 days on what she's doing and she has to hope that she has a video of Kenney having sex at a white supremacist/alt-right orgy.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I can't believe it took one lake of fire guy to sink the Wild Rose party. And yet dozens of kooks with Kenney being the worst of the bunch have had next to no effect on these numbers. I guess people complaining about the election being about issues less than the economy have had their complaints registered and heard.

As noted, "It's the economy, stupid" is always front and centre in people's minds. People were tired of the PCs in 2011, but the economy was doing well, so it was easier to stick with status quo.

Also, those "bozo eruptions" happened right at the end of the campaign, which carried maximum impact.

The NDP and their propaganda wing at Press Progress made the tactical error of assuming an entire month of this would cause increasing outrage rather than increasing apathy. Eventually, people just decide that the same whining over and over is boring and tune it out.

At the same time, it's hard to entirely fault them. Notley certainly can't run on her record since she'd be forced to talk a lot more about how she hasn't gotten any pipelines moving forward, how her 'social license' was as worthless as everybody thought it would be, how her carbon tax is hurting people's wallets, and how Calgary - the key battleground of the election - has high unemployment and high office vacancy.