[PGT] Neal, Ryan, Jankowski lead Flames to a dominant 7-2 win over the Kings! 50 wins!

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by VilleN

How do you ignore people on this forum? Asking for a friend.

Hes a total nincompoop.

But I do wish we had gotten draisaitl that year. Bennett is a beauty but if we had tkachuk-Draisaitl on our second line we would have a better record than Tampa bay. Acquiring lindholm has made up for Benny's lack of offensive production at the nhl level and allowed Bennett to settle in as a good role player... but Bennett's inability to transition that offensive ability to the big leagues has actually been the 2nd biggest thing holding this team back a few seasons, with goaltending as the other night item.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

https://twitter.com/user/status/1113123216472416257

I have no idea what that means.

[Ryan Coke]

I’m pretty sure it means he hasn’t been that good, but he has been lucky.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

I’m pretty sure it means he hasn’t been that good, but he has been lucky.

Meh the eye test has been the opposite.

[AC]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

I’m pretty sure it means he hasn’t been that good, but he has been lucky.

Yet he should probably have more points. Like when he sprung Brodie for a breakaway in SJ, but he missed the net.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

I’m pretty sure it means he hasn’t been that good, but he has been lucky.

The Flames player, or the guy who posted the stats on his Twitter? Hard working guy with not much actual insight, somehow has a job at it though.

The guy opines that Brodie gets a demotion when Peters dresses Prout and then pairs Brodie with him. Dummy.

[Ryan Coke]

Just to be clear, I’m not saying I feel that way, just what I think Kent’s stats are supposed to illustrate.

I’m not on the Neal is great bandwagon, but he is way more engaged, and putting himself into better positions for success, or luck, depending on how you look at it. Luck tends to follow players that skate hard, are physical, and go to the front of the net.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Murph

I have no idea what that means.

It means that Kent Wilson has, once again, been able to scrounge up some numbers that completely misrepresent what has been happening on the ice.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

Just to be clear, I’m not saying I feel that way, just what I think Kent’s stats are supposed to illustrate.

I’m not on the Neal is great bandwagon, but he is way more engaged, and putting himself into better positions for success, or luck, depending on how you look at it. Luck tends to follow players that skate hard, are physical, and go to the front of the net.

They used to call it playing well, or on a roll. Now, because of things like PDO, they call it luck.

[ASP#26525]

Originally Posted by midniteowl

Spoiler!

Spoiler!

I already have a very robust ignore list, heh, but you're my kinda people---I'm a very visual person so I would have appreciated this

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by ASP#26525

I already have a very robust ignore list, heh, but you're my kinda people---I'm a very visual person so I would have appreciated this

I'm very visual as well, I used to write user manual.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It means that Kent Wilson has, once again, been able to scrounge up some numbers that completely misrepresent what has been happening on the ice.

Kind of hard to misrepresent data like that.

Pucks are going in when he's on the ice at a pretty good clip of late, and the numbers support that. But the guy has also shot at 5% all season after averaging 12% in his career ... that's bad luck over the course of the season for the most part.

James Neal this year

138 shots in 63 games, 5.1% shooting percentage. If you apply his 12% average he's have 16 goals now not 7, prorate that to 82 games (injury) and he's at 21.

Neal has never been fast, that hasn't changed over the course of the summer. He's either become a crappy shooter, very unlucky or both.

[Shazam]

PDO is a totally useless measure, and should be set on fire.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Kind of hard to misrepresent data like that.

Pucks are going in when he's on the ice at a pretty good clip of late, and the numbers support that. But the guy has also shot at 5% all season after averaging 12% in his career ... that's bad luck over the course of the season for the most part.

James Neal this year

138 shots in 63 games, 5.1% shooting percentage. If you apply his 12% average he's have 16 goals now not 7, prorate that to 82 games (injury) and he's at 21.

Neal has never been fast, that hasn't changed over the course of the summer. He's either become a crappy shooter, very unlucky or both.

Probably not quite that simple though. I don’t think he’s unlucky or lost his good shot. I’d put it down to setups, positioning, his comfort on the ice before I’d blame luck or his shot falling off.

Neal hasn’t generated a ton of high danger chances nor has he been able to consistently get open and get the puck on his stick in high danger areas.

And that’s why it appears he’s had more success recently IMO. He doesn’t have great foot speed so he’s not generating a lot on the rush on his own but he definitely seems more noticeable in the offensive zone as a threat. He’s getting open, seems to have better chemistry with his line mates, is keeping the play alive with his board work and cycle and he’s getting into dirty areas in front of the net more often.

This is all eye test stuff imo. I’m not basing any of the above on advanced stats.

[GreenLantern2814]

All I know is, James Neal has sent more opponents to the ice during these last three games in California than he had in all his previous games as a Calgary Flame.

It's clear he's still got some pepper in his shot. He might not have been going to the right places or reading off his linemates especially well, but it doesn't take much for Neal to launch a puck. I wasn't as worried about that.

I was concerned that this was allegedly a player with some trollish characteristics who would play a little dirty and drag the game into the muck. I didn't see any of that before the injury. I saw a perimeter player who wasn't going to the front of the net and was shying away from contact. A slash here or there, but mostly nothing.

If this newly physical Neal stays around, we have ourselves a player.

[AC]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

All I know is, James Neal has sent more opponents to the ice during these last three games in California than he had in all his previous games as a Calgary Flame.

It's clear he's still got some pepper in his shot. He might not have been going to the right places or reading off his linemates especially well, but it doesn't take much for Neal to launch a puck. I wasn't as worried about that.

I was concerned that this was allegedly a player with some trollish characteristics who would play a little dirty and drag the game into the muck. I didn't see any of that before the injury. I saw a perimeter player who wasn't going to the front of the net and was shying away from contact. A slash here or there, but mostly nothing.

If this newly physical Neal stays around, we have ourselves a player.

Yep I could see the Flames being very hard to handle now with 4 lines all dominating.

3M has completely outproduced the MacKinnon line head to head this season, our top line should do some damage as usual, and our 3rd and 4th lines should truck any opposition 3rd and 4th lines they face.

[Phagoof]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

All I know is, James Neal has sent more opponents to the ice during these last three games in California than he had in all his previous games as a Calgary Flame.

It's clear he's still got some pepper in his shot. He might not have been going to the right places or reading off his linemates especially well, but it doesn't take much for Neal to launch a puck. I wasn't as worried about that.

I was concerned that this was allegedly a player with some trollish characteristics who would play a little dirty and drag the game into the muck. I didn't see any of that before the injury. I saw a perimeter player who wasn't going to the front of the net and was shying away from contact. A slash here or there, but mostly nothing.

If this newly physical Neal stays around, we have ourselves a player.

That's the kind of Neal I want. If he was being a #### disturber and being physical, despite his lack of offensive, I would of been much happier with him overall.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Probably not quite that simple though. I don’t think he’s unlucky or lost his good shot. I’d put it down to setups, positioning, his comfort on the ice before I’d blame luck or his shot falling off.

Neal hasn’t generated a ton of high danger chances nor has he been able to consistently get open and get the puck on his stick in high danger areas.

And that’s why it appears he’s had more success recently IMO. He doesn’t have great foot speed so he’s not generating a lot on the rush on his own but he definitely seems more noticeable in the offensive zone as a threat. He’s getting open, seems to have better chemistry with his line mates, is keeping the play alive with his board work and cycle and he’s getting into dirty areas in front of the net more often.

This is all eye test stuff imo. I’m not basing any of the above on advanced stats.

He's definitely off when it comes to high danger chance rates, for whatever that's worth, but not to the extent that would properly explain the drop.

Individually (not on ice) his high danger rates are as follows

5on5 HD Rate - 92% of the previous season in Vegas
5on5 Goal Rate - 37% of the previous season in Vegas
5on5 Points Rate - 57% of the previous season in Vegas

PP HD Rate - 93% of the previous season in Vegas
PP Goal Rate - 51% of the previous season in Vegas
PP Points Rate - 85% of the previous season in Vegas

So based on numbers completely a 20 goal / 20 assist Neal should be the following ...

1 - 63 game season (missing games vs last year)

18 - 18 - 36

2 - Adjusting for drop in high danger chances

16 - 16 - 32

Actual current total

7 - 12 -19

So assists are creeping into what missed games and chance rates suggest they should be, but his goal scoring is looking pretty unlucky.

[Strange Brew]

I can't really buy that 20 goal pace was all we could expect from Neal. That would have been his worst NHL season to date. He has averaged 31 goals over 82 games before this year, and scoring is up.

Neal simply hasn't looked dangerous all year. I don't see a guy who is snake bit. Whether it's motivation and compete level, deteriorating eye/hand coordination, less strength and even less speed. Or maybe some of all of the above.

If he recovers in the playoffs, then maybe we will know what it was. Or maybe it's luck, but it's hard to imagine luck accounting for that kind of drop in production.

Hopefully he has found a little confidence now at least. That can't hurt.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I can't really buy that 20 goal pace was all we could expect from Neal. That would have been his worst NHL season to date. He has averaged 31 goals over 82 games before this year, and scoring is up.

Neal simply hasn't looked dangerous all year. I don't see a guy who is snake bit. Whether it's motivation and compete level, deteriorating eye/hand coordination, less strength and even less speed. Or maybe some of all of the above.

If he recovers in the playoffs, then maybe we will know what it was. Or maybe it's luck, but it's hard to imagine luck accounting for that kind of drop in production.

Hopefully he has found a little confidence now at least. That can't hurt.

Given his age and an expected decline I think 20 a year for three years, and then 15 a year for two more to go with the intangibles would be a fine investment.

I hate the word luck in these cases too, but it's certainly played a role. You can pretty much circle a half dozen players on each end of the spectrum each year that had too much luck or not enough and they almost always bounce back the other way.

Karlsson in Vegas this year is a good example (43 goals on a 23% heater, now 24 goals and back at career average).

Granlund in Vancouver had a 19 goal season with 16% but he's a career 8% guy.