Calgarypuck Mafia Game Thread

[mrkajz44]

So I'm thinking more about the votes and here's what I've got. Day 1 final votes:

Votes Scornfire (4): Hockeyguy15, SebC, devo22, bizaro86
Votes agulati (5): Winnipegfan, mrkajz44, Bonded, GGG, crazy_eoj
Votes Bonded (6): dissentowner, agulati, Fuzz, Puxlut, DropIt, Scornfire

With the votes so close, I still think that none of the voters for Bonded were Oilers - if even one of them were on Bonded, they could have flipped to agulati and saved Bonded. I highly doubt they decided a good strategy on Day 1 was to vote out one of their to cover their tracks. The only way this doesn't hold is if agulati was Oiler too (so moving off Bonded to agulati doesn't really accomplish anything), but GGG and Bonded are both voting for agulati, so that makes no sense.

Day 2 votes stacked in this order: HG, SebC (comes off later and stays off), Fuzz, Winnipeg (off and on right at the end), dissentowner, devo (comes off later and then back on shortly after), Crazy, GGG

There was some jockeying there close to the end, but that is the order. Winnipeg was the 4th vote and that's when I consider the GGG train really moving. He comes off and on right at the end with the mod reveal (off prior to Fuzz's reveal), so I read this as a Flames fan second guessing his initial decision.

SebC's move off seems a bit off to me. GGG and SebC have been playing the game of not engaging each other much, which feels off. SebC dropped the "how did you know my vote was wrong" comment and HG started the vote on GGG shortly afterwards. I think Seb saw this an opportunity to vote against his teammate early in the day when things didn't look bad to try and hide tracks later as they knew having only two Oilers after day 1 would probably mean a win would come down to the wire. Once the train started rolling, he got off and went to Crazy (which aligns with GGGs vote).

Coupling this with the fact that he did not align with GGG and Bonded in the first vote, I'm leaning Seb as the third Oiler. I don't think all three Oilers would have voted the same way on Day 1. I think one of them was on Scorefire and they couldn't move at the end of the day for two reasons:

1) The move from Scornfire to agualti would have caused a tie and could have resulted in a no ban - that would have been suicide for whomever moved
2) The move from Scornfire to agulati would also have signaled that Bonded was being protected, essentially calling out a second Oiler

As such, they decided as a group to sacrifice Bonded as one Oiler down was better than 2.

Summary: I think the last Oiler voted for Scornfire on Day 1 to avoid outing two Oilers rather than just get one banned. Of those 4, SebC's pull off GGG and voting in alignment with him on Day makes me think he's the most likely one.

[mrkajz44]

Vote: SebC

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

So I'm thinking more about the votes and here's what I've got. Day 1 final votes:

Votes Scornfire (4): Hockeyguy15, SebC, devo22, bizaro86
Votes agulati (5): Winnipegfan, mrkajz44, Bonded, GGG, crazy_eoj
Votes Bonded (6): dissentowner, agulati, Fuzz, Puxlut, DropIt, Scornfire

With the votes so close, I still think that none of the voters for Bonded were Oilers - if even one of them were on Bonded, they could have flipped to agulati and saved Bonded. I highly doubt they decided a good strategy on Day 1 was to vote out one of their to cover their tracks. The only way this doesn't hold is if agulati was Oiler too (so moving off Bonded to agulati doesn't really accomplish anything), but GGG and Bonded are both voting for agulati, so that makes no sense.

Just wanted to comment on this part of your reasoning with my theory regarding Scornfire. The timing here is critical.

When Scorn was last to vote on Day 1 (post 348) the votes were stacked as:

Bonded - 5
Scorn - 5
Agulati - 4

So if he is an oilers troll in this situation, he really has to vote for Bonded, even though it is against one of their own. Otherwise, he votes for agulati it becomes a hung vote and it's just too easy to see the connection between them. IE: saving himself vs. saving bonded... it impossible for both to happen. Plus even though it's a non-ideal situation for the trolls, it surely causes people (such as yourself) to clear his name because of the vote.

Otherwise I agree there could be a marginal case made for SebC, I just think the logic around why Scorn's vote may have been forced on Day 1 is there. Coupled with some of the other links my opinion is it's a stronger indication of an allegiance to Mullets.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

SebC's move off seems a bit off to me. GGG and SebC have been playing the game of not engaging each other much, which feels off. SebC dropped the "how did you know my vote was wrong" comment and HG started the vote on GGG shortly afterwards. I think Seb saw this an opportunity to vote against his teammate early in the day when things didn't look bad to try and hide tracks later as they knew having only two Oilers after day 1 would probably mean a win would come down to the wire. Once the train started rolling, he got off and went to Crazy (which aligns with GGGs vote).

Did you miss post #555, or is this your view in spite of it?

[Scornfire]

I was never at 5? Unless I'm terrible at counting. Are you referincing Mrkajz44 misstype on post #349?

Your vote put Agulati at 5, Bonded and I were at 4 at the time. DropIT tied it at 5, I was the last person to vote which made it;

[Scornfire]

woops

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Vote Count:

Votes Scornfire (4): Hockeyguy15, SebC, devo22, bizaro86

Votes agulati (5): Winnipegfan, mrkajz44, Bonded, GGG, crazy_eoj

Votes Bonded (6): dissentowner, agulati, Fuzz, Puxlut, DropIt, Scornfire

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Scornfire

I was never at 5? Unless I'm terrible at counting. Are you referincing Mrkajz44 misstype on post #349?

Your vote put Agulati at 5, Bonded and I were at 4 at the time. DropIT tied it at 5, I was the last person to vote which made it;

You're correct. I'm quoting MrKajz on post #349, which does look like a misstype now.

That does make your vote not make as much sense for a troll.

[Scornfire]

You're still not going to address post #15 I guess, I'll be leaving my vote on you for that one alone at this point since it ties in perfectly with what I felt GGG was trying to do.


It doesn't help that you're making so many empirically false claims either (I was never at 5 votes, I didn't bring up GGG *After* in post 248, he's mentioned directly in that quote and He was clearly the one I was MOST suspicious of in that group, reference post #245 if you have to. Claiming I tried to bait people early day 2 when I had corrected my mistake less than 10m later, What post am I pushing for Biz? Post #337 I state I'll vote him if that's a possible alternative (Directly answering a question from Mrkajz44 above if anyone is willing to move, at this stage I think both Agulati and Bonded are Flames fans)). Even if you are a Flames Fan and just tunnel visioning like I was experiencing early on, you're muddying your own arguments up too much

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by SebC

Did you miss post #555, or is this your view in spite of it?

In spite of it. On it's own it reads pretty good, but I don't really buy it when I start to apply my logic (SebC wording is in italics):

- While I did not end up with a vote on GGG, I still think I had a fairly important role in getting him lynched.

Having an important role in getting him banned doesn't mean you are not an Oiler. It was just accidental - you were just trying to cover your tracks for later

- I said that GGG should be lynched Day 4, even if I'm dead. Am I planning to die before he does, and get him off the hook that way? Why, then, would I not fake a freudian slip or something to advance that plan?

To be honest, I never really understood this Day 4 comment - are you saying this is typo? Maybe I just missed something

- I was aware of the traction that the GGG vote had, and felt a bit guilty for starting it as early as I did in that nothing else really got discussed, thus making it an easy day for mafia to hide their tracks. Disclosing my alternate theory, and the vote to support that, was an attempt to make up for it, and set the game up better going forward.

I guess we can agree here but as I stated, I think you voted for GGG early to cover your tracks and then went into damage control mode once the voting train really took off

- If I were troll, would I really want to move off GGG, knowing that he would flip mafia? Knowing that even if he were to survive the day he would be unlikely to make it to the endgame (with me having said that he should not)? Moving off him only made sense because I did not have certainty of his alignment (nor that of crazy_eoj).

It makes a lot of sense to move off GGG if you are an Oiler as you were trying to stop all the votes going his way (I don't think his banning was certain when you moved off him). With one Oiler down and potentially another one on the block, I really don't think you were thinking about the long game.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

To be honest, I never really understood this Day 4 comment - are you saying this is typo? Maybe I just missed something

Post #461

Originally Posted by SebC

With one mafia dead, we hit lynch or lose no earlier than Day 6. While I will reiterate that I am not convinced of GGG's innocence, I would rather see him lynched on Day 4 (specifically Day 4, take note of this if I am banned) than Day 2, on the grounds that if he's town he could still be more useful than most other players, and if he's mafia then at least he's talking, and there's a chance that he could slip up.

Day 4 would've allowed us to be wrong about GGG, lynch someone as a result of his card flip (possibly me), and still have another shot at sorting through the aftermath.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I really don't think you were thinking about the long game.

Even if you don't think I would've been, GGG probably would've been doing so for me, would he not?

My greatest fear in this game is being mislynched in a lynch-or-lose round. I have to weigh the value of my play against the weight of suspicion against me. While being lynched now prevents my worst case scenario, so does being lynched Day 6 - and I may be able to contribute in the meantime.

[SebC]

I will also point out that I didn't not post at all after 1:47 PM on Sunday. I was out with friends, ignoring my phone. I basically set the GGG thing into motion, disclosed my other best theory when we weren't talking about anything else, then left things to play out as they would without having any knowledge or influence.

If my intent was misdirection, surely I would've picked a day when I was going to be able to participate more to call out then save GGG.

[SebC]

*did not

[DropIt]

I'm also weary of WPG as he was the final vote that let GGG ban himself. It seems suspicious of him to jump on GGG as soon as he gets outed, enough votes to allow him to kill himself. Looks like both a desperate attempt to join the herd, as well as allow GGG with an ejection button to shut down all talks.

[WinnipegFan]

You can be weary, but you’d be wrong. I clearly said after GGG claimed mod I was stepping away from the vote to avoid making an error. Then fuzz has the big reveal and I recited. To be honest I didn’t understand what the hammer meant, now I get it, but I would likely have voted that way anyways as I have been upfront and honest with every vote. Those pointing my way become suspicious to me as this far they ha e turned out to be Oiler scum

[Scornfire]

To steal a phrase from Puxlut

Not impressed

If you're earnestly a Flames fan you need to a. Understand the rules better by Day 2, especially the Hammer since it was a pretty large topic of conversation towards the end of Day 1 AND during the GGG pile on and b. start providing your own insights. "Oiler fans didn't like me so those who don't like me are Oiler fans" is not an argument

[WinnipegFan]

Angryvmuch Scornfire. The sign of someone who has been found out. You can keep trying to deflect, as I stated, which I believe counts as insight. You get my vote.

[Scornfire]

I would imagine the majority of us are annoyed/suspicious of you setting up the ban hammer for GGG to self immolate.

I've addressed most of the points made against me that I'm aware of, care to bring up something that I can actually refute instead of whining that I called you out about the revote?

And sorry, Where exactly do you explain your vote removal?

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Alright so GGG thinks my lamentations are fake, it would take some serious Oiler dirtbag to call a guy out for lamenting the loss of a fellow. He gets my vote.

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Vote: GGG

I ask why you're voting, here's your super helpful contribution

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

No I also read everything and felt compelled by a few of the previous arguments but I am an emotional being and trust my gut. My last vote was similar in nature.

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Invite: GGG

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Unvote:GGG

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Thank you fuzz. I hope you make it through the night. GGG you fooled me, but now back to the rope Oiler scum

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Vote: GGG

My point isn't that I think you're the Oilers Troll, moreso that you're being a terrible Flames Fan and aren't adding thing of any help to the conversation

[agulati]

I don't think all three mafia members will vote for the same person on day 1. They would want to distance themselves, especially on the first day, when there is no basis to go on anything. GGG and Bonded voted for me, so that leads me to believe that the third mafia member voted for someone else. That makes me think WF is a townie.

That whittles the list down to Hockeyguy15, SebC, devo22, bizaro86, dissentowner, myself, Fuzz, Puxlut, DropIt and Scornfire. Out of this biz and diss have already been killed and flipped as town. We know Fuzz is a mod. I am still leaning towards Pux and Scorn being townies. I have no reason to think dropit or devo22 are mafia.

For me, that leaves it between SebC and HG. SebC seemed to want to continue having a discussion on Day 2 and not hasten towards a hammer. It seemed that GGG would be gone regardless, so I think that might push Seb closer to a town than to a mafia member.

[Scornfire]

I dunno, HG pushed not waver on GGG when we were discussing potential alternate theories during the dead hours

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Are we really going to let GGG off the hook? He is the most thourough player in this game and he’s made 2 big slips with his missed vote count and comment about Sebs vote. That isn’t something he does, ever. When Bonded was getting in trouble he comes out with a full court press to try and take the heat off him.

He isn’t even “death posting” like he normally would. I would have expected him to give us a recap to what his theory was for the remaining people so if he does get banned we will be able to have a clean record of it instead of having to peice it together after the fact. Flames fan GGG would be trying to help us till the end.

If HG is indeed a troll, that's a really confident/strong play right there as at the time nobody knew Fuzz has had a successful investigation and the potential for GGG getting put off until another day was still real. He's the first on GGG, and never takes his vote off him.

Initially I felt like HG/GGG butting heads was scripted, but after Eoj pointed out for me that he was the one who actually had started the Mod talk at the start it doesn't ring quite as true to me

[WinnipegFan]

Originally Posted by Scornfire

I would imagine the majority of us are annoyed/suspicious of you setting up the ban hammer for GGG to self immolate.

I've addressed most of the points made against me that I'm aware of, care to bring up something that I can actually refute instead of whining that I called you out about the revote?

And sorry, Where exactly do you explain your vote removal?





I ask why you're voting, here's your super helpful contribution











My point isn't that I think you're the Oilers Troll, moreso that you're being a terrible Flames Fan and aren't adding thing of any help to the conversation

More whining, more deflection from the fact that you are an Oiler scum bucket. Not gonna bite, you get my vote and I really don't need to explain it to you as your wheel spinning and over active attempts to save your little oil skin is evidence enough for everyone here to see. Thanks for taking care of it yourself