Calgarypuck Mafia Game Thread

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Sure but how possible is it to move someone from 0 to 5 or 6? Legitimately it’s a 2 horse (borderline 3 but not really) race. It just seems like it isn’t helpful to muddy the waters right now. If she has a case against bonded or agulati then sure present it.

Her post just seems weird to me “hey guys I’m here before the deadline, I have a theory about other people not in danger right now. Ok I’m leaving my vote on Bonded and going to bed”

Just because we already have the votes down for people, doesn't mean that the game has to stop. I had it all in my head and wanted to write it down before I lost that train of thought. You say "Hey! She's muddying waters! But I'm muddying waters too, but don't look at me!" That's weird to me.

And why was GGG so eager to try and get a bandwagon started to get me votes at the ninth hour with his comment #363 (Sorry, I don't know how to multi quote) Why do that this early in the game?

Thirdly: I don't have much time to go back further, but I was trying to figure out why the trolls picked on Biz. And I noticed that he liked my comment #355 about how if you took out the 3 that had votes, it would be a 3 way tie. I was just looking at patterns... not sure why he would have liked that post? Is there something in it that the trolls thought I was on to?

I tend to remember posts that I am mentioned in or my own posts. So being self-aware I need to really keep track of posts that others make. But not right now, I have to go to work, so will be MIA for the next 9 hours. I hope to hear more from the less frequent posters!

Good job on the ban guys!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

GGG “forgets” the vote on Bonded, now his “incorrect vote” comment. Two rather large accidents from a generally thorough poster.

I would also expect some speculation on why they banned bizaro last night, but if you already know why I guess it could be easy to gloss over. Hopefully I’ll have some time to look over his posts here but I’ve got a sick kid and I’m still trying to get used to juggling parenting and this game. Playing was much easier when I didn’t have a 2 year old.

I outlined above the only way it makes sense for Scron and Agulati to be scum and states that is not something to pursue today. If we get down towards the end we can reevaluate these cases. So once making that assumption I don’t think incorrect is an odd word to use.

I can see why you think the vote miss looks bad.

I did most of the writing of my posts before we new Bizs flip. So copy and pasted a bunch of it over and added quotes while waiching a movie. Didn’t want to go back through and validate it all against the biz flip. It’s far more suspicious if people have long posts that incorporate the night kill as it implies they thought about it.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Post #21 GGG tells me I’m too helpful. In a a game with new people I answer 1 question and I’m too helpful. Who doesn’t want people helping? Oilers fans.

Post #97 doesn’t want us to ban inactive posters. Inactive posters help Oilers

Post #201 let’s not ban new players - Bonded was new and it worked out well. Is GGG trying to protect the new players because he thinks it will be easier for his Oiler team or does he have 2 new players as his fellow oiler fans?

Originally Posted by GGG

I think we push for a replacement if he doesn't post in the first 48hrs. Wasting our Lynch on a person who isn't playing gives the scum a big advantage. I know Maz had a one post per real time day rule.

Oling what are your rules around replacement players?

Here is post 97, HG is mischaracterizing my statement and chose not to post the quote. I’m clearly advocating here for replacing inactives over lynching them not letting them just be inactive.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

On the other hand, I am slightly more confident you are a townie. You are exactly consistent with your play from past games where you were town - picking one tenuous link and then grabbing on to it like a bulldog and never letting go. In my opinion that has cost the town in past games. However, based on the consistency I think you are probably a flames fan. I'd suggest you be more open to considering multiple options, especially in day 1 when there isn't much to go on. I do know you're wrong about me, although I'm not sure about Bonded. Something to think about. I try to avoid giving specific advice to people (because they usually just get mad instead of appreciating it) but I think its worth it here. Feel free to disregard it, of course.

I think this post from Biz sums up nicely my thoughts on your last comment. We got a result last night based on a Diss tunnel that this time happened to turn out right. To say the strategy of lynch a new player is correct based on that is a reach.

The other thing is that as scum a strategy of don’t lynch a new player is awful. In that case I should have just guided the vote to land one of the other new players rather than town clearing fuzz and advocating for all of them.

After rereading Biz he has one post on his 4 suspicions not much on his town. I will quote it below.

[crazy_eoj]

Not much to explain on my vote, as mentioned I saw good reasons to vote for agulati or bonded and just wanted to ensure the tie was broken before I might not be able to get back online. Pretty happy to see others went with bonded and were correct!

However it’s really strange to me that they banned bizaro as I would have been pushing for a vote there once bonded flipped troll.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I think right now my best thoughts are one of scornfire/agulati are newish oiler fans. The piling on winnipegfan and the defensiveness after (more so scornfire) suggest that to me.

For the veterans - GGG is playing exactly the same game he always does. If he's an oiler fan he's really good. Sebc is inscrutable as always. Last time he got lynched quick for that, I'd like to see how it plays out a bit.

Hg and mrkajz both seem a bit off from their usual styles. I think it seems like one of them may be an oiler fan as well.

Id be inclined to jump on any of those 4, and if we don't have someone at 5 by this time tomorrow I'll jump on whomever of them has the most votes to make sure we get a lynch.

Most relavent Biz post from yesterday

[agulati]

The only reason for bizaro to be killed is he was on to something. Bonded flipping mafia could have directed attention at him as a target. Generally mafia would have let him kick for a day or two if he was on the wrong track.

I’m still leaning towards scorn being a townie, out of the 4 he mentioned. Obviously myself as well. That goes without saying.

Brings the other two (MrK and HG) into the discussion.

Bonded followed MrKs theory on my vote relatively soon and threw a vote in my direction. That could just be a coincidence, or mafia ploy. Needs to be explored further. I’m going to be out of town for the weekend, but will try to contribute over the next 24 hours

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

So three things in the sequence make it scummy

I only wrote that my vote was incorrect because it's what you told me... then I extended to you the benefit of the doubt.

If the town supports flipping my card over this, do it before the critical round so that GGG can be next. Or better yet, him first.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by GGG

Most relavent Biz post from yesterday

convenient that it's one that exonerates you.


Mafia knows that we go back and look at the posts of the townie that was killed. Mafia also knows that we expect that this townie was killed because he was on to something. If I were mafia and lost a member on day 1, I would lead town exactly towards this path that leads to nowhere. If I were to guess, they killed bizaro because a.) he's a strong player and b.) he didn't leave anything in his posts that leads us to mafia.

[devo22]

it'd be great if WinnipegFan could post more on day 2. He has by far the least posts so far, and the post count is even flattering him because 155/156 and 162/163 are double posts. Help us, man.

[devo22]

#253/254 - dissentowner shares his feelings about Bonded and casts the first vote
#257/258 - agulati agrees and casts the second vote

so now it's 3 votes on agulati, 2 on Scornfire and 2 on Bonded, so it's a critical moment for the first vote. GGG quickly tries to build a case against dissentowner and agulati working together (#260/261). Then Fuzz jumps on the Bonded train (#270/272) which is gaining steam. GGG quickly adds another vote for agulati (#275/278) to make it 4-3.

that whole sequence looks interesting in light of the results of day 1. I realize GGG is a really good player and I might be taking a shortcut to a conclusion here, but in combination with his "let's not ban a newbie on day 1" stance this sequence sure doesn't sit too well with me.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

Before anyone accuses me off holding my vote to avoid getting GGG's blood on my hands, it's because I also hold a competing theory that I think may be worth pursuing "today", depending on how things develop.

Originally Posted by SebC

I only wrote that my vote was incorrect because it's what you told me... then I extended to you the benefit of the doubt.

If the town supports flipping my card over this, do it before the critical round so that GGG can be next. Or better yet, him first.

I could buy that if they were in the same post. But instead it’s posted right after. Meaning you read your post and thought there was risk of someone jumping on you and decided to try to fix it. And then a few posts later you feel the need to do the same thing and defend yourself not voting for me yet when no one asks.

You are looking at yourself through a guilty lens so you are correcting things no one else would have thought suspicious.

Then you finish of with a if I flip town my argument is correct gambit. This is just flawed as all we know from your flip is that your argument was genuine not that it’s correct. You are a good enough player to know this so I’m unsure why you play this gambit.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

I could buy that if they were in the same post. But instead it’s posted right after.

Seconds apart.

And yes, town should be trying to avoid accidentally making themself look suspicious. I am aware that I think about things that other people do not. It's not a "guilty lens", it's who I am as a person. Nobody else thought Kipper was killing us either.

And I can be proven not guilty, as long as it's not in a lynch-or-lose scenario.

[Scornfire]

I've been leaning towards GGG since the first day with the "Don't Lynch Newbie" stuff and shutting down the Mod talk so aggressively. Everything he was saying felt staged as if trying to get all of us beginners in his corner early. I've still yet to see any actual reasoning for holding off on banning first timers despite it being a terrible strategy for Flames fans, I'd much rather have the experienced players in as long as possible to glean their insight, as we saw with me my intuition wasn't great, Winnipegfan has contributed very little, frankly Fuzz is the only one who's hit on anything. I thought Bonded was 99% for sure Flames fan and that GGG/Biz/Sebc/HG had to contain 2 oiler trolls, one of those has already flipped town and was banned for no real reason as he was pretty high on the suspicion mentions. Bonded's last posts felt directly aimed to influence me into switching my vote, and having him name me a for sure townie seemed like a troll attempt to plant a seed of doubt in everyone else when/if he flipped, though it could've also just been a hail mary empathy play.

Anyway, now we have GGG right out of the gates directing traffic, keeping away from outright exonerating anyone who isn't already consensus Flames Fan in most of our eyes while keeping the cloud over Agulati and I

Originally Posted by GGG

Agulati I’m less sure on I think there is a scenario where he just wants to be on an early wagon on his own guy. The next 3 all had options to push a different direction without suspicion so likely aren’t scum. Scorn at the end has to chose between Agulati and Bonded chooses to keep Agulait based on experience. In this position if Scorn and Bonded are both scum it might make sense to cut their losses and have Scorn vote out Bonded as in that scenario they would both be targets the following day if they didn’t. It would also make sense that Scorn waited so long to place his vote. This works especially well if he is the proxy troll. However I don’t think we go there today.

I was in no real danger of being pursued today regardless of which way I voted, 2 of the people who voted for me were extremely early and without much reasoning. I could have easily picked Agulati without raising any suspicions if he flips flames fan, the suspicion would've been passed to DropIt who tied the vote needlessly by avoiding voting for agulati. So why are you trying to push this narrative? It's especially interesting to me since this is essentially the way I WOULD infact be thinking to work it if I were a troll and had a newbie on my team who wasn't doing great, it's interesting that the thought crosses your mind so quickly.

You don't defend your Agulati selection at all and your reasoning for still doubting him, he pushes the Bonded train and proves to be correct, your whole reasoning to vote for him in the first place (Late) is that he's building some kind of narrative with Dissentowner. And you vote right after Bonded starts gaining steam. But you provide 0 insights on your day2 breakdown about what ANY of the Agulati votes mean, just state their circumstances, while you dig into everyone's votes on myself. Bonded is already gone. Agulati is likely Flames fan in everyone elses eyes

TLDR; seems like You're the one building a case for down the road now, but not wanting to actually act on it? Again, troll gameplan should be to get rid of as many experienced players as possible and leave those of us flailing to find patterns around for as long as you can to muddy the waters and be easier end game targets. You list pretty much everyone who didn't vote bonded as day 2 targets without making a selection

Now you're going hard after Seb who I also listed as one of my top 4 suspicions, with some pretty tenuous stuff.

[Scornfire]

I'm not confident enough in what I'm reading into here to actually cast a vote yet, but I'm leaning hard towards GGG pending any other evidence/theories to the contrary

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

Seconds apart.

And yes, town should be trying to avoid accidentally making themself look suspicious. I am aware that I think about things that other people do not. It's not a "guilty lens", it's who I am as a person. Nobody else thought Kipper was killing us either.

And I can be proven not guilty, as long as it's not in a lynch-or-lose scenario.

Originally Posted by SebC

Seconds apart.

And yes, town should be trying to avoid accidentally making themself look suspicious. I am aware that I think about things that other people do not. It's not a "guilty lens", it's who I am as a person. Nobody else thought Kipper was killing us either.

And I can be proven not guilty, as long as it's not in a lynch-or-lose scenario.

The “seconds” is what’s makes it worse.

It sounds like you are now admitting that you posted the first part, saw it could make you look suspicious and then posted the second? Is that a correct interpretation of this post?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

It sounds like you are now admitting that you posted the first part, saw it could make you look suspicious and then posted the second? Is that a correct interpretation of this post?

I saw that it could potentially be inaccurate, despite how you presented yourself.

[SebC]

So, with this GGG thing having blown up, it seems unlikely that it won't dominate the conversation. And since we don't have such a big gap between deadlines, here's the alternate theory I have.

Originally Posted by Bonded

My main defense is if the trolls/mafia/scum were helping and guiding me, would I really be playing so poorly.

[...]

If I was getting advice from trolls then they would also have to be pretty inexperienced.

I am entertaining the possibility that this is actually true. Perhaps he thought that we would consider an all-newbie team to be improbable, and that this argument would save him.

If so, and assuming that no Oilfans (who, in this theory, are newbie) voted for Bonded, the theory is easy to test, as only WinnipegFan and crazy_eoj are newbies who didn't vote on Bonded.

[SebC]

Would require that all three cast their votes on the same person Day 1 though, so now that I think about it more (because this is how my brain works), it's probably not such a good theory.

[SebC]

vote: GGG

[Scornfire]

My quandry now is that 2 people who I am still suspicious of are the ones who are voting for GGG already after some early momentum.

[dissentowner]

I am still busy, Saturdays are for most people however once I am unbusy I will go over everything and where my thoughts are now.