Calgarypuck Mafia Game Thread

[Scornfire]

Credit to Fuzz's spidey senses, I wasn't seeing it at all and was loathe to have the last vote there. Few thoughts going through my head, would like to know why Eoj voted Agulati in the end when we already had 5 votes on Bonded, he forced a tie despite not seemingly having any argument for increased suspicion re: Agulati

This was his most recent post prior to voting;

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

I also noticed the omission of bonded as a potential vote for bizaro interesting, and the lack of response to the direct question from you is very strange.

The strange voting patterns by agulati as mentioned by GGG in particular are also notable.

I'm willing to move my vote to either Agulati or Bonded to help build consensus.

If you were willing to build (An already established) consensus, why tie the vote with no potential of a hammer unless someone swapped last second?

[Scornfire]

Oh, apologies, DropIt actually forced the tie after Agulati had hit 5. Not sure how that got mixed up in my head

I clearly need some sleep

[GGG]

Good work Diss, I think we can assume your town now.

With only 3 trolls in the game I don’t think they go on the bonded wagon especially the way it formed. Diss wouldn’t lead off lynching his guy and defend it to the end though there is an outside chance the proxy troll could do this if he thought the few posts by bonded were going to be noticed and wanted solid town cred. This shouldn’t be explored until endgame.

Agulati I’m less sure on I think there is a scenario where he just wants to be on an early wagon on his own guy. The next 3 all had options to push a different direction without suspicion so likely aren’t scum. Scorn at the end has to chose between Agulati and Bonded chooses to keep Agulait based on experience. In this position if Scorn and Bonded are both scum it might make sense to cut their losses and have Scorn vote out Bonded as in that scenario they would both be targets the following day if they didn’t. It would also make sense that Scorn waited so long to place his vote. This works especially well if he is the proxy troll. However I don’t think we go there today.

So on the bonded wagon Diss, Pux, Dropit Fuzz highly likely town
Scorn/Agulati - not ready to put in town box but not in the list for me today

[GGG]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

The general CP way has been to see who is the least active and lynches them. The reasoning is a quiet townsperson (Flames fan) is not very helpful to the town anyway, so the loss of them is not a big blow. However, it has yet to be successful in getting mafia (Oilers troll).

Damn rounding!

This post by Mr.K is really interesting given the bonded flip. I didn’t get a chance today to go back to the old early game days to see if MrK was an advocate of lynch lurkers or not but this seems like an early post to change strategy on day one.

Now I realize you can go through my yesterday posts with my don’t lynch new players and make the same argument I’m making here but the fact this is so early in the game and subtle seems suspicious.

[GGG]

On the AugulaTi Wagon you have Winnipeg, Bonded, Mr.K, Me, EOJ

Winnipeg does a revenge vote on Agulati posts a bit, leaves his vote and doesn’t post much afterwards.
Crazy comes in at the end to push Agulati without a real reason.
MrK I covered above

We definately need to head from Winnipeg why he didn’t change his vote post the revenge vote. He has a pretty Scummy last post in I will stand by my vote but am open to changing. What is he standing by? Was he actually open to change if he wasn’t around near the deadline.

[GGG]

The Scorn Wagon: Hockeyguy15, SebC, devo22, bizaro86

SebC provided essentially no content all day so now we have no insight outside of his incorrect vote. Yay!!

Originally Posted by devo22

getting a read on the newbies hasn't been easy so far. With WinnipegFan and Fuzz I'm leaning towards inexperienced townies right now. Bonded and crazy_eoj ... no idea.

Scornfire and agulati are the ones I have mixed feelings about so far. Since WinnipegFan has come in and chimed in, I'll remove my vote for now. I'll certainly vote for someone before going to bed tonight though (should be between 3 and 4 pm for you guys).

oh and can we get clarification from Oling whether he'll be strict about votes/unvotes standing on its own? Maybe I remember it wrong but I think we used to include votes in longer posts.

So Devo does something interesting here if he is scum. He plants early seeds on why he won’t be voting for EOJ or Bonded. I do think this is fair because I agree they could be read both ways and this was before the posts that Diss keyed in on to find him. So overall I stay neutral on him.

Originally Posted by devo22

I'm going to vote on Scornfire at this point. I'll reiterate what I said earlier about having mixed feelings about him, although I admit that on day 1 it really is more of a gut feeling than anything else. But looking back at the WinnipegFan vote I started, the other 2 voters pretty much echoed my reasoning (not the worst mafia idea either, so I'm keeping that in mind), while Scornfire piled on AFTER WinnipegFan chimed in and didn't explain why (despite being asked about it). Really not sure why, and he just seems really defensive in general. Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if he did wear sweatpants.

Here is the post where he votes Scorn. Nothing wrong or odd with the logic here. Not indicative either way.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I'm leaving my vote on Scornfire. All his posts are fluff, if he is new he hasn't asked any questions, then he jumps on the WinnipegFan vote train with no explaination why.

Hockeyguys vote for Scorn happened pretty early in the game day, he defends this post once them basically disappears because of “work” and shows up conveniently after the day is done. The scumcase here is that HG got a good vote on a viable wagon in early and then evaluated the risk of trying to shift the vote off bonded and decided that it wasn’t worth the risk as he’d be lynched day 2 or 3 anyways.


So those are my thoughts on Bondeds flips I have to go through Bizs posts to see if his flip changes any of the above.

But based on the bonded flip MrK, Seb, HG, Winnipeg and Crazy are all viable for me today.

[agulati]

It’s good to see Bonded flip mafia. I was worried if my gut had been wrong, it will come to bite me on day 2.

GGG I disagree on mine being a pile on vote. I had already laid out on my “newbie review” post that I was unsure on bonded but leaning towards the rest being town. My post ended up baiting him (unintentionally, wish I could take credit for that) in trying to act like a newbie with no knowledge. If I had been mafia I wouldn’t have jumped so quickly on that and been steadfast.

I’m still leaning towards all my other previous reads of the remaining townies for now (GGG, WinnipegFan, Scornfire and Fuzz). Obviously diss joins that list, since I don’t think a mafia would direct attention to their own member.

I would love to see Crazy, Senior and Winnipeg pipe in with their inputs. I gather this is not Sebs playing style, but it really is difficult to get a read on a player with such limited input/explanation. I don’t have a read on other players yet.

[agulati]

Also thank you folks for not lynching me on my birthday. It was a good gift to see the mafia flip.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

SebC provided essentially no content all day so now we have no insight outside of his incorrect vote.

Only a mafia could know that my vote was incorrect!

[SebC]

... if it was.

[Hockeyguy15]

GGG “forgets” the vote on Bonded, now his “incorrect vote” comment. Two rather large accidents from a generally thorough poster.

I would also expect some speculation on why they banned bizaro last night, but if you already know why I guess it could be easy to gloss over. Hopefully I’ll have some time to look over his posts here but I’ve got a sick kid and I’m still trying to get used to juggling parenting and this game. Playing was much easier when I didn’t have a 2 year old.

[Hockeyguy15]

And by Bonded I meant Scornfire. Time for coffee.

[Hockeyguy15]

Post #21 GGG tells me I’m too helpful. In a a game with new people I answer 1 question and I’m too helpful. Who doesn’t want people helping? Oilers fans.

Post #97 doesn’t want us to ban inactive posters. Inactive posters help Oilers

Post #201 let’s not ban new players - Bonded was new and it worked out well. Is GGG trying to protect the new players because he thinks it will be easier for his Oiler team or does he have 2 new players as his fellow oiler fans?

[Hockeyguy15]

Vote: GGG

[Hockeyguy15]

More later, but now I have to parent.

[SebC]

Before anyone accuses me off holding my vote to avoid getting GGG's blood on my hands, it's because I also hold a competing theory that I think may be worth pursuing "today", depending on how things develop.

[dissentowner]

Was great to get a Greaser on day 1. I will post more later on but the food for thought immediately is why would they take out bizaro after I made a case for him and Bonded to be Oiler buddies? I would have been looking hard at bizaro as possible scum and I am sure others would have as well so what is the strategy there?
Stupid Oilers!

[devo22]

great job guys! Great start to the game obviously. Kudos to dissentowner for getting things started.

I doubt that any of those who voted for Bonded are Oilers (I mean, it's not impossible, but with such a close vote I think it's highly unlikely). I mentioned before that dissentowner strikes me as town for sure, so good to have confirmation. Scorn and agulati had high votes on them, so not surprising that they voted for the other guy - but surely they wouldn't do this if the other guy was one of their buddies. So again, clear town for me and I certainly had that wrong. I'll assume Fuzz, Pux and DropIt also as Flames fans as well at this point. Those were the later votes on Bonded, so I think it's unlikely they are Oilers.

So that leaves 8 players with (probably) 3 Oilers among them, obviously - me included. The fact that there are some extremely good players among those non-Bonded voters is a bit concerning, but with a good start like this, I think town stands a good chance to figure this out quickly. Personally I think GGG drove a pretty hard cause for agulati yesterday (I'll agree that most of it made sense though), so that could have been a late attempt to save his Oilers buddy. His "we shouldn't lynch a newbie on day 1" argument is interesting as well.

[Fuzz]

Hrmmm, HG makes a few interesting points on GGG, but I need to look at some other players and see what happened last round. Winnipeg has been fairly quite.



With Bizaro86 banned by the Oilers, should we look and see who has talking bad about him? Maybe that will help see who they might be.



With a common Oilers troll out, we have one proxy and one regular left. With so many to choose from, and only one being identifiable it is probably a long shot our mod found him, but bomber work if they did. So we should be looking for hints dropped from the mod, right? Or is there any reason for them to hide if they have found the regular troll? But ya, with such a long shot, chances are we are working blind.


Anyway, I've got a busy day of drywalling, and going out for the evening so I won't have much time to look over things. Hopefully tomorrow. Good hunting, people!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

... if it was.

Originally Posted by SebC

Only a mafia could know that my vote was incorrect!

Originally Posted by SebC

Only a mafia could know that my vote was incorrect!

Originally Posted by SebC

... if it was.

Seb just did the same thing he accused me of, hit post, realized what he did and try to fix it. I see why he was trying not to post much.

The funny thing is if you only read the first post as suspicious if you know the statement is true. So a townie has no reason to throw in the second post to cover up the mistake.

So three things in the sequence make it scummy
1) he accuses others while doing the same thing. Scummy things he sees in others are the same he sees in himself
2) he reads is own post as far more scummy because he knows the answer rather than not seeing why
3) they are separate posts where he tries to fix the perceived risk. If it was the same post it could be style related but here there is a thought process of oh that sounds scummy.

Now if we had other history to go on we could evaluate against the rest of his work.