[Signing] Flames sign James Neal (5 years, 5.75 AAV)

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

He is below that pace so far this year and hopefully will bounce back but 20+ goals was always unrealistic.

Why would you think 20+ is unrealistic? This guy has scored 20 goals in every single season he's been in the league. He may not have been a 60-point guy anymore, but he clearly was expected to continue scoring 20 and paid as such.

[Phagoof]

I think the best thing to do now is what someone mentioned in the trade rumors thread. Go after Jeff carter and get him a center to play with. Frolik would need to be moved in the deal to make the salarys work.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Carter-Neal
Bennett-Backlund-Ryan
Mangiapane-Jankowski-Hathaway

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Ped

Why would you think 20+ is unrealistic? This guy has scored 20 goals in every single season he's been in the league. He may not have been a 60-point guy anymore, but he clearly was expected to continue scoring 20 and paid as such.

Read the post. Aarongavey went into some detail on why he quite reasonably believes that Neal is in tough to score 20 goals again.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Phagoof

I think the best thing to do now is what someone mentioned in the trade rumors thread. Go after Jeff carter and get him a center to play with. Frolik would need to be moved in the deal to make the salarys work.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Carter-Neal
Bennett-Backlund-Ryan
Mangiapane-Jankowski-Hathaway

I am not a fan of that line at all. A big part of what makes the 3M line click is their tenacious forechecking, and Backlund's edge work and ability to create turnovers. I don't see any of those qualities in Carter and Neal.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Ped

Why would you think 20+ is unrealistic? This guy has scored 20 goals in every single season he's been in the league. He may not have been a 60-point guy anymore, but he clearly was expected to continue scoring 20 and paid as such.

Just based off historical scoring patterns for good but not great goal scorers 31 or older. Great players like Iginla can slightly buck this trend (although even he experienced a roughly 13 percent reduction in goals per game from 31-35 compared with his 20's) but good players see a significant drop as a general rule.

If he was signed to score 20+ that is because BT thought that Neal would be different than most good goal scorers in their 30's. A comparable in my opinion would be Patrick Sharp. Between ages 26-30 over an 82 game average he scored at a rate that equaled 35 goals a year. 31-35 he scored at a rate that equaled 21.4 goals a year, basically a 39 percent reduction.

James Neal scored at a rate equal to 30.6 goals per 82 games. If he experiences a similar drop off to Sharp he gets a 18.7 average per 82 games played. I just think that average is a more likely 82 game average, given Neal's propensity of getting injured, I would suggest that would mean 15 actual goals a year on average.

Neal has missed on average 15 percent of every season over the past 5 years (averaging just under 70 games a season).

In order to average over 20 goals a season one of the following two things would have to happen

1) Neal misses no games - He only experiences a 32 percent reduction in goals scored

2) He misses his average of 12 games a season - He experiences roughly a 21 percent reduction in productivity.

Given guys like Iginla experienced a 13 percent reduction between 31-35 compared to their 20's (and a 21.8 percent reduction compared to 26-30) I think a reduction is to be expected. I would suggest a minimum of a 30 percent reduction), which given the average of missed games would result in a 18 goal average.

I obviously think the reduction will be closer to the Sharp reduction, which brings it to a 16 goal average.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am not a fan of that line at all. A big part of what makes the 3M line click is their tenacious forechecking, and Backlund's edge work and ability to create turnovers. I don't see any of those qualities in Carter and Neal.

You could have a fairly similar third line or 2b in this scenario with Bennett Backlund and Frolik. Your not losing that element but your adding a legit scoring line.

[Max Cow Disease]

Originally Posted by Igottago

Not sure why you can't enjoy the success of the season and also discuss the performance of a big free agent signing. The Flames will need all of their players to contribute to keep up the performance over the course of season and into the playoffs.

If I was to ask you how James Neal is playing this season, what would you say? "Don't care"?

This is where I’m at. The two phenomena can obviously occur in parallel - fans can discuss Neal’s crappy start and revel in the great season so far as well. I’m generally fairly optimistic and am loving the team this year, but it’s hard to believe that Neal is blowing anyone’s hair back at this stage.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Max Cow Disease

This is where I’m at. The two phenomena can obviously occur in parallel - fans can discuss Neal’s crappy start and revel in the great season so far as well. I’m generally fairly optimistic and am loving the team this year, but it’s hard to believe that Neal is blowing anyone’s hair back at this stage.

I'm all for criticism of Neal, it's warranted. I do think trashing is unhelpful, and I'm more into discussions about what can be done that what hasn't worked.

My biggest issue is that there's not been a real extended period with any set of linemates for him (I suspect this last stint with Mangiapane and Jankowski is as long as any). I really think Neal might be a guy that needs time to develop chemistry (last season notwithstanding).

[Barca]

I havn't been following much hockey lately but, how the hell does James Neal have 6 points in 31 games?! that's 4th line goon production. Ryan Reaves has 10 points and 6 goals in 32.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Barca

I havn't been following much hockey lately but, how the hell does James Neal have 6 points in 31 games?! that's 4th line goon production. Ryan Reaves has 10 points and 6 goals in 32.

Reaves has 3rd line goon production.

[stemit14]

When it comes to putting Neal in a spot to succeed.. I’m surprised at where they keep putting him on the powerplay... they seem to only want him in front of the net as the screen/close in shot guy. I wonder why they haven’t tried Neal in a one-timer position on his off-wing. They’re using the umbrella setup most of the time anyways. Why not put him at that spot so he can use his shot? Right now, they usually don’t have a one-toner on that side cause they’ve been trying right-handed players there like ryan and Ljndholm. I’m ok with Lindholm on that side on the first unit powerplay cause his release while shooting across his body is fantastic. But Ryan takes forever to get a shot away and it’s not that hard of a shot.


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[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Barca

I havn't been following much hockey lately but, how the hell does James Neal have 6 points in 31 games?! that's 4th line goon production. Ryan Reaves has 10 points and 6 goals in 32.

While you consider he has only three goals, also consider that 33.3% (recurring of course #LeeroyJenkins) of these goals were to make the score 1-8 against Pittsburgh...when nobody was really trying anymore.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

While you consider he has only three goals, also consider that 33.3% (recurring of course #LeeroyJenkins) of these goals were to make the score 1-8 against Pittsburgh...when nobody was really trying anymore.

I suspect they really wanted to break the shutout. And I didn't see anyone else scoring that game.

Any shade you want to throw at his other goals?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by stemit14

When it comes to putting Neal in a spot to succeed.. I’m surprised at where they keep putting him on the powerplay... they seem to only want him in front of the net as the screen/close in shot guy. I wonder why they haven’t tried Neal in a one-timer position on his off-wing. They’re using the umbrella setup most of the time anyways. Why not put him at that spot so he can use his shot? Right now, they usually don’t have a one-toner on that side cause they’ve been trying right-handed players there like ryan and Ljndholm. I’m ok with Lindholm on that side on the first unit powerplay cause his release while shooting across his body is fantastic. But Ryan takes forever to get a shot away and it’s not that hard of a shot.


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I said this last game. They had him as net front. He's got size but it's not his game. I'd even suggest letting Lindholm onto the second unit which is struggling because they lack a skilled guy with the puck and puttin Neal on for one-timers (which is what Lindholm has been doing).

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

While you consider he has only three goals, also consider that 33.3% (recurring of course #LeeroyJenkins) of these goals were to make the score 1-8 against Pittsburgh...when nobody was really trying anymore.

33.3% of these goals were also to draw even in one of the most epic comebacks in recent memory against one of the NHL's top teams.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I suspect they really wanted to break the shutout. And I didn't see anyone else scoring that game.

Any shade you want to throw at his other goals?

“Neal scores game winner in 3rd period comeback versus Winnipeg”...is the type of headline he was recruited (and paid) to create.

Not...

“Neal ruins shutout in blowout 1-9 loss to Penguins”

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

“Neal scores game winner in 3rd period comeback versus Winnipeg”...is the type of headline he was recruited (and paid) to create.

Not...

“Neal ruins shutout in blowout 1-9 loss to Penguins”

So you'd have rather he didn't score against Pittsburgh? Weird.

How's "Neal snipes tying goal in comeback against Avs"?

[PsYcNeT]

Honestly I'd just be happy with "Neal brings veteran presence to young Flames lockerroom; is positive contributor to middle 6"

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

So you'd have rather he didn't score against Pittsburgh? Weird.

How's "Neal snipes tying goal in comeback against Avs"?

It confuses me that you think Neal is doing well and that you’re defending his record as a flame as a success so far.

And to answer your question, scoring a goal while losing 0-8 has absolutely no value. So if he scored it or not, I don’t really care.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

33.3% of these goals were also to draw even in one of the most epic comebacks in recent memory against one of the NHL's top teams.

So what you’re saying is Neal has scored two meaningful goals in 31 games...isn’t that my point?