[Trade] Habs trade Pacioretty to VGK for Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd UPD: signs $7mil x 4 yr with VGK

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

...It's like watching a new Sacha Baron Cohen character playing an extremely misinformed Jets fan.

Oh my god.

This has just given my life new meaning. Amazing.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

For whatever it's worth, Pronman's recent ranking of farm systems had Suzuki listed as Vegas's 4th best prospect, behind Glass, Elvenes and Gusev, and in the third "tier" of prospects (which goes, "Elite", "High End" and then "Very Good"). So yeah, hardly a fatal blow to the prospect pool there, even though I agree with those who are talking up Suzuki's potential for sure. Gotta give to get, I suppose.

It is interesting since Suzuki seems to be a polarizing prospect.

Dropped on Pronman's list, but still ranked 30th on Wheeler's list as a prospect.

Also was the 2nd highest scoring U-19 player in the OHL last year so not like it was a performance based drop.

The skating concerns that Pronman had were interesting to me - since that seems to be the biggest concern that other's don't necessarily share. "His downsides are his size, and his mediocre-at-best foot-speed. - Pronman 2017"

"Has impressive quickness in his feet and an enviable top speed…agile and shifty…deceptive with quick hands. - Futureconsiderations.ca 2017"

"Suzuki is a good but not great skater. He has a quick first step and good acceleration, but can improve his stride and have better top end speed. He uses that acceleration and first step to chase down loose pucks, and gets in quickly on the forecheck, throwing hits or pressuring defenders into turnovers. - Last Word on Sports 2017"

"The Montreal Canadiens are about to get acquainted with Nick Suzuki, and there’s a good chance they fall in love with the smooth-skating, high-scoring and ultra-disciplined forward who was acquired as part of the Max Pacioretty trade. - The Hockey News"

"Suzuki is an undersized dynamic offensive player who uses his speed and playmaking ability to impact the game. Dobber Hockey - March 2017"

So it's interesting on the views on the player post draft seem to be so different, and I think a lot of it probably has to do on how somebody views his skating. Personally it looks like he has a choppy, inefficient stride at times but his top end speed doesn't seem to be impacted.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

They both became full-timers in the 11/12 season. Since then, here are their stats (games/G/A/P):

Pach: 503 / 206 / 193 / 399
Neal: 469 / 190 / 168 / 358

Percentages:

Pach: .409 / .383 / .793
Neal: .405 / .358 / .763

'much superior player' is a pretty big overstatement IMO.

Then factor in their AAVs, and I'll take Neal at $5.75M over Pacioretty at $7M anyday.

Last 3 years.

Pacioretty:

227 gp
82 goals
86 assists

Neal
223 gp
79 goals
64 assists

Neal 1 year older, contract 1 year longer.

I might prefer the term over the AAV cap savings, but not the acquisition cost.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The Flames get Backlund for 32.1M for 6 years and the Knights get Pacioretty for 32.05 for 5 years.

Pretty good contract for the Knights.

I have no idea why you would compare these players.

But it would appear that the Flames get a free year out of Backlund.

Plus zero acquisition cost.

Which you seem to conveniently ignore.

But why not compare the Pac contract to Johnny's or Monny's?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Last 3 years.

Pacioretty:

227 gp
82 goals
86 assists

Neal
223 gp
79 goals
64 assists

Neal 1 year older, contract 1 year longer.

I might prefer the term over the AAV cap savings, but not the acquisition cost.

Not much difference in those numbers, other than a few assists.

And it isn't 1 year longer, because Pacioretty has a year left on his old contract. So call it $6.6M for 5 years (that's what it will cost Vegas)

That's almost a million more per season, for a handful of assists. And they had to give up multiple prospects to do it.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Not much difference in those numbers, other than a few assists.

And it isn't 1 year longer, because Pacioretty has a year left on his old contract. So call it $6.6M for 5 years (that's what it will cost Vegas)

That's almost a million more per season, for a handful of assists. And they had to give up multiple prospects to do it.

Right, but Pacioretty is unquestionably a better goal scorer over the last 5 years, he's also been unquestionably more durable.

You say neal became a regular in 2011-2012 but he had 234 games of NHL experience by the start of that season.

It's pretty freakin' even.

[Enoch Root]

I used 11/12 because it was Pacioretty's first full season, and the start of when Neal became a productive, full-time player as well. Thus a fair comparison.

The difference in stats for the guys is not that big - it's right there. The only real difference is that, in the last 3 years, Neal hasn't gotten as many assists. Is that because he forgot how to pass, or because he was with less productive line mates?

When he played top line, Neal put up bigger numbers than Pacioretty (Patches never hit 40).

The start of the conversation was someone asking why not just sign Neal? Pacioretty will cost them $4.25M more, for the same term, and they gave up 3 assets to get him.

He is NOT that much better than Neal.

[Enoch Root]

Also, I can pick a term that suits my argument as well: Last year, Neal had more goals than Pacioretty. Cool.

[Flamenspiel]

I am not sure about the durability comparisons, Pacioretty has been in the lineup more but he has had quite a few concussions, in fact the last time the Habs were in the playoffs he was coming off a head injury and was fairly ineffective.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I used 11/12 because it was Pacioretty's first full season, and the start of when Neal became a productive, full-time player as well. Thus a fair comparison.

The value of data as it gets older reduces. Most analytics writers nowadays use the past three years of data and weight them somewhere around 50/30/20. Of course, that wouldn't help Pacioretty's case. But it's not like he chose that period at random.

The difference in stats for the guys is not that big - it's right there. The only real difference is that, in the last 3 years, Neal hasn't gotten as many assists. Is that because he forgot how to pass, or because he was with less productive line mates?

Well, to be fair, Pacioretty has literally ~33% more assists. That's not a small amount. Of course, points aren't offense, so if you looked at their relative contributions to offense more closely, you might find that that number's misleading. Or you might find that linemate quality was worse (though just off the top of my head, looking at Montreal's lineup, I'm not convinced). Totally possible. But if you're suggesting those things account for the difference, shouldn't you justify that by putting forth at least some data in support?

All of that said...

The start of the conversation was someone asking why not just sign Neal? Pacioretty will cost them $4.25M more, for the same term, and they gave up 3 assets to get him.
He is NOT that much better than Neal.

Regardless of whether the difference in assists is material, this still seems like a pretty reasonable position to me, but I wouldn't call it a slam dunk. Whether this plan is preferable to signing Neal depends on your opinion of Pacioretty's trend and how much of an anomaly last year was, and your views about Nick Suzuki as a prospect.

In other words, analyzing this question is roughly the same as analyzing who did well in the trade. Which, for me, this one's pretty clearly a "wait and see", more so than most trades.

[Enoch Root]

33% more assists , if you look at 3 years. The difference in the 4 prior years was 1 assist. So the recent difference could easily be quality of line mates.

And yes, recent data is more important, but that wasn't what Flash was going for. He chose 5 years because that created the largest discrepancy between the players. Over the last 3 years, and 7 years, their goal totals are almost identical.

[Enoch Root]

Simple question: is there anyone here who would take Pacioretty over Neal, same term, for $850K more per year, plus you have to give up those 3 assets (where Neal is free)?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Yeah, I think I would. Not a slight at Neal at all, just obviously think Pacoiretty is worth it.

Tatar is a weird one. Was solid with Detroit while playing with Datsyuk or Zetterberg. But really a non-factor with Vegas. Is he a player who made the best out of a prime situation in Detroit (for him) or just couldn't adjust to the his new team in time?

An argument could be made that getting out of his contract, 5M for a healthy scratch, could be worth Suzuki alone.

On the other end, we just had a team give up a sizable amount for Tatar because of how he performed in Detroit.

I think this one is just super weird because you have:

What is Suzuki's potential?
Is Tatar a top-6 forward on a team with decent depth?
Does Pacioretty bounce back?
Does Neal stay productive until he's 36?

[FlamesFanTrev]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

They both became full-timers in the 11/12 season. Since then, here are their stats (games/G/A/P):

Pach: 503 / 206 / 193 / 399
Neal: 469 / 190 / 168 / 358

Percentages:

Pach: .409 / .383 / .793
Neal: .405 / .358 / .763

'much superior player' is a pretty big overstatement IMO.

Then factor in their AAVs, and I'll take Neal at $5.75M over Pacioretty at $7M anyday. And then you have to add that Pacioretty had an acquisition cost.

I would still rather have Neal any day of the week over patches. No question Neal is the more....shall we say.... "Fiesty" player.

[transplant99]

I wonder if this signing takes Vegas out of the Karlsson talks.

Lots of mid/big-sized deals on that club all of a sudden.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Absent acquisition cost I would take Patches over Neal.
But when you factor in acquisition cost (butt load v. fo' free), then it is a slam dunk in favor of The Real Deal.
He also wins the nick name battle
Real Deal>>>>>"Patches"

[Jiri Hrdina]

Absent acquisition cost I would take Patches over Neal.
But when you factor in acquisition cost (butt load v. fo' free), then it is a slam dunk in favor of The Real Deal.
He also wins the nick name battle
Real Deal>>>>>"Patches"

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Because it's amusing, of course.

It's like watching a new Sacha Baron Cohen character playing an extremely misinformed Jets fan.

I used to hate reading his posts but you just made it really fun

[djsFlames]

Pacioretty is a good pickup. Probably slightly better than Neal for Vegas as he is a proven producer on not highly skilled teams. So a solid replacement.

However, I think Neal is a better fit in Calgary beside Monahan and Gaudreau than in Vegas and will have his numbers elevated there.

Both guys have a decent chance at 30 goals.

[Jacks]

Vegas badly overpaid for Tatar but that has nothing to do with this deal, that money was already spent.

Pacioretty will probably have a nice bounce back now that he is out of the fishbowl, I can't imagine playing for the Habs when they are losing. That and dumping the Tatar contract, he clearly wasn't fitting in that group, makes this a solid win for Vegas IMO. Suzuki looks like a decent prospect but you have to pay for good players.

If Price gets his usual injury early the season MTL might be the worst team in the league.