[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Hanifin might at best become Dougie Hamilton.

Hanifin might become Dougie Hamilton offensively. He is only 21 and already better defensively.

[Stay Golden]

Hamilton, Ferland and Fox all talented players. Fox we don't know he is a sure thing but the sample size we have seen at International tournaments Fox has been impressive and his NCAA stats well documented.

Lindholm and Hanifin will be nice additions my beef with this trade is we didn't get enough back especially because knowing that Lindholm and CAR did not see eye to eye on his pending RFA contract Treliving had leverage & should have been able to 1 recieve more back than he recieved especially a 3-4 draft pick or rid himself of lets say Brouwer meat head BT contract.
Both teams will benefit on ice but the Flames simply could have done much better with this trade.

[JJolg]

I believe Hanifin coming in to this season is pretty much at the same point Dougie was offensively when we obtained him. Also interesting that the bruins dealt Hamilton to try and move up and get Hanifin at that draft.

Wish them both good luck in Carolina, going to miss Ferland the most as the Canucks series will always resonate but man his short shifts were frustrating.

[AC]

After all the comments from Treliving, it seems like the easiest way to dissect this trade is in regards to long-term asset controllability.

From Treliving, it sounds like Dougie didn't want to be here. So trying to re-sign him after the last 3 years of his contract might have been tough.

Likewise Treliving flat out said Adam Fox's representative made it clear he wanted to reach free agency.

Treliving legitimately seems sad to lose Ferland, but he's likely due for a big raise as a UFA and the Flames probably would be wise to let him leave (ala Colborne).

If we couldn't sign or re-sign those 3 players, they have 4 combined seasons left under contract. Whereas Lindholm and Hanifin are both RFAs and could be extended shortly for a combined 14 seasons, not counting the possibility of a bridge for Hanifin before a long-term deal.

[Manhattanboy]

After a day of reflection I find myself going in the other direction compared to most.

Absolutely hate this trade.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by New Era

All the arguing back and forth about whether the Flames got the better players really is irrelevant. I like the players that we got back, but they really don’t change the make up of the hockey team or address weakness. The problem that faced the team was a need to get another top six forward that was a proven scorer. Mission NOT accomplished. This was a lateral move in the big picture and did not address the pressing need of the hockey team.

Treliving continues to be very slow at addressing the significant holes in the organization. He loves the big glitzy trades, but he doesn’t address the major needs of the hockey team. We are still without a top RW, a proven scorer, and a long term solution between the pipes. All of these are the problems that faced this team from day one for Treliving, but he has yet to find a way to address the needs. Pretty sad considering the number of high draft picks and assets he’s burned through.

Perhaps this was not a trade to solve a need. That can be done in free agency. This was a trade to resolve a problem.

[Badgers Nose]

I'm not sure I buy the concern over whether or not Hamilton would have signed again three years from now. That's a long time and frankly I'm not sure that our general manager will be the same guy by then. He needs to win now so I'm not sure why he's looking that far into the future.

My theory is that this all fits into a larger revamp plan. A rebalancing of the roster in terms of how cap space is allocated.

[GranteedEV]

After taking a day to full digest the details behind this trade, here are my thoughts:

Hamilton vs Hanifin
I think we got the long term better player, because of Hanifin's discipline levels. I was simply fed up by Dougie's propensity to get only slightly out of position, be able to recover with his feet, and take a hook instead. Offensively, Hamilton's style didn't quite jive with me as it was best described as mechanical hockey.

Defensively, based on what I've read from Canes fans, Hanifin might not be as far along in his development as we hope however, and I won't be surprised if Kulak and/or Kylington both show cleaner gaps next season. I do believe Hanifin is young and malleable enough that this will develop, but I am not expecting this to come next season and if Hanifin finds himself on the third pair with Stone/Andersson next season while Kulak holds down the fort with Hamonic, we shouldn't remotely panic as it's a positive that we have the depth to shelter Hanifin further down the lineup.

It's no secret that I firmly believe TJ Brodie is a right side defenseman, so I am also excited to see Brodie be partnered with one of Giordano, Kulak, or Hanifin. I think if Giordano-Brodie is the plan next year, we will also see Gio pop back up from that 40-ish point range back into that 55+ point range as he and Brodie simply had more offensive chemistry in setting each other up, contrasted with the mechanical "shoot it on net if the puck is on your side" shot attempt padding style of the Gio Hamilton pair. We probably will be a worse possession team next year, but I am okay with that as I expect we'll still be hovering near that ~52%+ mark that is representative of contending hockey teams. I do hope Hanifin gets lots of penalty killing time, however, as does Kulak.

Ferland+Fox vs Lindholm
Given that Ferland was a pending UFA in the same offseason as Tkachuk, and Fox confirmed my previous suspicions of not signing I can stomach it overall, but I do think Ferland is a damn solid and unique 2nd liner. We didn't just give up a generic 3rd line grinder riding his linemates' coattails as people are alluding to. I think it's highly optimistic to think just anyone can throw up the 14 5v5 goals he threw up in less than 1000 minutes (only eighteen players in the NHL put up more goals with as few minutes, and much of that list contained true superstar players like Matthews, Boeser, Marchand, Eichel).

In Lindholm I don't think we added a legitimate 1st liner as some do, but we did add a legitimate team need in a playmaking right handed shot. There is no indication that Lindholm is a high-end goal scorer and he's gotten way more ice time over his career to prove otherwise. If he can help Monahan and Gaudreau increase their output though, it could work out - but we've seen that even a guy like Frolik doesn't necessarily have chemistry with those two. I expect a lot of line blendering next year at 5v5. Where this will possibly or at least ideally change the dynamic of our team isn't at ES, but on the power play since Sean Monahan will be able to receive setup passes by Lindholm from the left circle but Johnny Gaudreau will also be far more of a threat to score on the far right rather than defaulting to his pellet shooter wrister. I think Lindholm won't score a lot of goals for us, but simply having Tkachuk, Monahan, and Gaudreau on PP1 alongside him will give him a lot of options if the four are positioned correctly. Back to even strength, the numbers certainly indicate that Lindholm isn't as strong as Sam Bennett, so I'd keep overall expectations in check and I don't expect a whole lot to change there. A 15G / 35A overall season, including some penalty killing, is probably a fair expectation because Lindholm will be a fixture on Peters' power play.

Losing Fox still hurts because ostensibly he would have been the cushion for losing Hamilton and I think should have been more likely to sign with the removal of Hamilton from the roster. At this point a lot of this team's offensive upside is dependent on the emergence of Rasmus Andersson as I do believe you need at least one offensive RHS defenseman somewhere on your roster. In fact, while I consider both Valimaki and Kylington to be better prospects than Andersson, we're now in a situation where Andersson is both our most valuable prospect and the prospect we cannot trade because there is no overlap in his skillset remaining in the system.

Overall: do I think the Flames lost or won the trade? I don't think we're more skilled or talented today than we were two days ago, but it's undeniable that we are more balanced. We're still short a top 6 forward, because we DID trade one away regardless of how people feel. I don't think James Neal, James Van Riemsdyk or David Perron at the costs they will command will necessarily be the right answer in UFA. If the team is willing to trial-run Andrew Mangiapane in our top six, perhaps the answer will be found internally. Whether our forward core can shape up is still up in the air. If we were to tough it out for a year, there's a UFA on the market who can "complete" our roster in 2019... his name is Micheal Ferland.

The jury is still out on this trade until we see the results. The pieces - all five of them - are still in their developmental stages and there is too much uncertainty to hold any definitive position. Currently, the Flames are still looking like a bubble team with upside to be more. This wasn't a trade to put us over the top next year, it was a trade to fix our broken power play and in that regard it probably will succeed. I'm not sure we're asset-rich enough to make a trade to put us over the top (well, barring a huge Valimaki / Sprong type swap) so a lot should depend on the emergence of youth like Mangiapane, Foo, Phillips, Tuulola, Klimchuk, and Poirier and perhaps the signing of a "surprise" stud like Czarnik.

TL;DR version: I said nothing one way or the other.

[sureLoss]

From the 31 thoughts podcast:

Friedman saw Treliving meet with Fox's family advisor on Friday before the draft and thinks they discussed whether Fox was going to sign
He thinks Fox was the prospect the Islanders tried to initially get in the Hamonic trade and the Flames didn't want to include him because they thought they could sign him


Carolina does this deal because of the salary certainty of Hamilton and to a lesser degree Ferland
salary negotiations were not going well with Lindholm or Hanifin - Carolina looked at it as these players are going to cost us money we didn't want to play and we are going another direction

right now you look at it as Dougie Hamilton is the best player in deal but you look at it as Lindholm and Hanifin have a chance to say something about that

Sometimes when a guy is traded he gets crapped on the way out... if you have something bad to say about someone say it to his face
I just feel this - He (Hamilton) has been traded twice now, he is a talented player - there is something there that we are not seeing
we don't know what is going on in the room. sometimes when a guy is traded out of a situation it is their own fault, sometimes guys have been traded out of a situation it is the other guys fault
he had a great year last year, I think there were things about him that frustrated the Flames
Hanifin and Lindholm have a chance to be the best players in this trade, but they just need to reach another level, both of them

Canes tried to address being too soft by acquiring Ferland (it was one of the reasons he was in the deal)
Friedman was told Lindholm was a guy who contributed to [being too soft]
you don't have to be a killer, you don't have to destroy people
if Lindholm gets some bite and a little bit of edge, Friedman thinks he has a chance to be a terrific player for Calgary

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GGG

Reading through HF boards they are pretty neutral with slight positivity compared with our neutral to slight negativity.

Really comes down to whether Carolina can sign Fox.

That's the thing. For Carolina to win this trade, it depends on Fox. On the ice, the Flames won the trade. If Fox becomes a player, good for Carolina.

But that cost, to the Flames, is minimal to non-existent. First, he wasn't signing here. Second, the stable of young D in this franchise is crazy:

Hanifin 21
Andersson 21
Kylington 21
Valimaki 19

And that's with Brodie and Hamonic just entering their primes (for defensemen).

Hanifin and Valimaki have the potential to become a top pairing for a decade in a few years.

Plus, for those that seem to think Fox is the greatest prospect we have, he was voted #7 last year, and fourth among defensemen.

If he becomes a stud NHLer in 5 years, good on him. But the Flames are not going to miss him.

[Bingo]

Still catching up on this monster topic ...

But man the more I read in the hour after the trade the more I wish there was a way to take about 20 posters and label "Damian Cox's" as a brand so I'd remember how to approach what they say on every topic that comes up.

Some people you want to disagree with all the time. It's a sign that you're truth North is firmly in effect!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by indes

So Bennett at 26 points is a bust and huge disappointment, Lindholm at 44 points is a stud in the making and will solve our goal scoring woes. With 16 last year. Yay.

Did anyone actually say this?

Both are terrible takes

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

I'm not sure I buy the concern over whether or not Hamilton would have signed again three years from now. That's a long time and frankly I'm not sure that our general manager will be the same guy by then. He needs to win now so I'm not sure why he's looking that far into the future.

My theory is that this all fits into a larger revamp plan. A rebalancing of the roster in terms of how cap space is allocated.

Limited no trade clause kicks in next year though. Had more options this year. You can bet your ass Carolina would have been on that no trade.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Did anyone actually say this?

Both are terrible takes

No one said this but it better not be the last move. If this is our forward group going into the season, we will struggle to score goals again IMO.

Here's hoping Tre has at least one more big move in store.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Reign of Fire

The point I am trying to make is he didnt get value. You would also say this no matter what he does. He gave up a rare commodity in the NHL and still added to that to get it done.

And got back two rare commodities. Hanifin is going to be a stud defenseman very similar to Hamilton. He’s a better skater and has a worse shot. IMO Hamilton and Hanifin are close in value. Potential in the NHL has positive value. Look at how much it would cost to get a completely unproven prospect in the top 5 of the draft. Instead we got two guys who already have a few years of development under their belts. Look at how much Seth Jones was traded for before he had fully developed. He was worth a 30g scoring young #1 centre in Johansen. Hanifin’s value IMO is not far off what Seth Jones’s value was at the time of that trade. Some people on here think Hamilton should be worth way more than Hanifin because he’s more proven but that’s not how the nhl works. Players with massive upsides have massive trade value even before they’ve achieved that upside. Brodie is not worth more than Dahlin because he’s more proven.

If you think Treliving didn’t get good value back for our players it may just be because you underrate the upside and thus the value of Hanifin and Lindholm.

[Dienasty]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Lindholm is going to be a goddamned monster. Watching some Carolina highlights and this guy knows where to go. Fast, mobile, great hands, great shot and smart.

I can't believe the Flames got him for Ferland and rights to Fox. Thank you cheap Carolina owners.

Hanifin is just as offensive as Hamilton based on the highlights I was watching. Defensively people might not like him too much. OTOH he seems to not do the "WTF were you think Dougie" defensive plays.

I echo this sentiment:
The Flames got much better.

Hanifin is 4 years younger and almost on par with Dougie (not to mention less expensive and harder to play against).

Dougie the offensive wizard we are all talking about had 7 more goals and 5 more assists than Hanifin. Dougie also played in 3 more games, 2:40 minutes/per game more ice time and is 4 years older. (he played ~270 more minutes and had 12 more points not very impressive). Not trashing Dougie, because he is in my opinion a legit #2/3 D man on a winning team, just saying Hanifin really isn't the big drop off people seem to believe.

I think Lindholm is going to be a beast. The guy was minus -10 in the last 2 years with the worst goal tending in the league (Eddie Lack and Scott Darling). The guy can skate, has excellent vision, and from what I saw an under rated shot. Not to mention he has won faceoffs at a 55% clip the last 2 seasons.. (Flames won 49.4% last year 19th in the league)

I think Ferland is over rated and everyone talking about how he created space for his line mates... I didn't see that with the eye test. When I look at his numbers 24 PIM's last year... only 2 fights... I think he thinks of himself as a goal scorer now...

Anyways that is my assessment I think we got way younger Hanifin 4 years younger, Lindholm 3 years younger, much faster, more talented. I really can't complain.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

All the arguing back and forth about whether the Flames got the better players really is irrelevant. I like the players that we got back, but they really don’t change the make up of the hockey team or address weakness. The problem that faced the team was a need to get another top six forward that was a proven scorer. Mission NOT accomplished. This was a lateral move in the big picture and did not address the pressing need of the hockey team.

Treliving continues to be very slow at addressing the significant holes in the organization. He loves the big glitzy trades, but he doesn’t address the major needs of the hockey team. We are still without a top RW, a proven scorer, and a long term solution between the pipes. All of these are the problems that faced this team from day one for Treliving, but he has yet to find a way to address the needs. Pretty sad considering the number of high draft picks and assets he’s burned through.

Not every trade has to fix every hole at once. I think it’s obvious Treliving knows we haven’t massively improved our offensive depth up front with this trade. It’s likely another move happens before next fall.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

But last year MacKinnon had just such a significant leap, after playing 300 games.
Improved his prior career best points by 53% (63->97), and the year before by 83% (53->97).
Not saying Lindholm will do that, but there’s certainly reason to believe he can improve.

True, not saying it can't happen, but the odds of that happening drop rapidly year by year. So yeah, I think that last 82 games makes a huge difference.

The guys that have those breakout have usually consistently shown signs of more. That's MacKinnon for you.

Lindholm doesn't look like a guy about to break out. No one in Carolina seems to think that, and I didn't see that in the Carolina games I watched. (I watched some for Teräväinen and Aho, two top Finnish players.)

I think it's obvious Lindholm should improve some, he's still at an age where that happens especially for centers. But a significant offensive bump just isn't very likely.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by nik-

Referring to their draft spots as their value after they've played 3+ years in the league is silly.

Their draft position is irrelevant at this point.

In some ways yes and in some ways no. Their draft position is referred to because it helps us realize their upside and potential. Hanifin was drafted top 5 as a future stud dman. He still holds that potential. Referring to him as a former top 5 pick is an easy way to refer to that potential. But if that line of thinking offends you then refer to Hanifin as a future stud dman and Lindholm as a young blossoming top 6 C/RW. These two players are not busts. They were drafted extremely high for many reasons and those reasons have not evaporated or disappeared. They had massive potential when drafted and they still have that potential. So their draft position definitely has some relevance to their upside, potential and to their trade value.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Not every trade has to fix every hole at once. I think it’s obvious Treliving knows we haven’t massively improved our offensive depth up front with this trade. It’s likely another move happens before next fall.

Didn't he say that they're not finished yet? Pretty sure I remember reading that somewhere yesterday after the trade went down. Might have been something posted on this forum.