2017/2018 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Well, he did play for the Sabres.

It's true he was on an awful team last year and that has an impact. He was also the 9th best forward for 5 on 5 points per 60 min on that team.

My eye test tells me he's a better player than that and in his previous years he was. He was 5th on the team in 17/18 and 5th in 16/17. He was not above 1.4 Points/60 in any of those years. Again, tire fire team, but you have to be sure if you are going to pay a hefty price from him. If it's me, you try and get him for a reasonable price and if you can't you move on.

For reference, Gallagher has been in the top 4 on MTL every year and never been below 1.79. I target Gallagher before O'Reilly.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

Just for reference in the conversation as of late, here is a site that shows the overall 'take home' for hockey players dependant on cities/states/provinces:
https://gavingroup.ca/nhl-tax-calculator/

Don't forget that players also pay 3-5% to their agent, and 10-15% to Escrow (rarely get any back).

So the math on a $10M salary in Calgary is:
Escrow (assume 15%): $1,500,000
Remaining: $8,500,000
Taxes (47.6% in AB): $4,046,849
Agent (assume 3%): $300,000
Takehome: $4,153,151

I know its like 'boo hoo, Millionaires!', but I do think its interesting how fast a $10M contract turns into $4.

....Now think about the players that make $1M a year:
Escrow (assume 15%): $150,000
Remaining: $850,000
Taxes (47.6% in AB): $374,849
Agent (assume 3%): $30,000
Takehome: $445,151

These guys have an average career of, what, 4 seasons? So many of these kids are done at 28 with no education with career take home of $1,780,604

Its a lot....but not a ton.

Just some stuff to think about.

Sure, but here's some other things to thing about:

At 28 with even some reasonable money management these guys will have:
House paid in full and loaded with appliances, furniture, home theater...
Car or two paid in full.
Toys paid in full (boat, cabin, bike, boat...)
Decent savings in excess of 100K hopefully invested returning 5-8%.

At 28 that's pretty sick. So now he has to pay utilities, property tax, insurance and basic living expenses. That usually would take an average person until they were at least 40-50 to get done. And all that time they get to play hockey to get there. I'd take that and I'm sure anyone else would too.

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

That's a great list. Agreed that Hayes and Gallagher are good targets. Any idea which of the players on that list are RH shots?

RH Shots off that list are:

David Perron
Corey Perry
Brendan Gallagher

These are the left shot guys that have played RW according to cap friendly:

Rick Nash
James Neal
Alex Galchenyuk
Ryan O'Reilly

Left Shot Centers again from cap friendly include:

John Tavares
Kevin Hayes
Andreas Athanasiou
Alex Galchenyuk
Ryan O'Reilly

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I don’t see how Tkachuk doesn’t follow suit of the majority of high pick/high impact players coming out of their ELC and sign a long term deal. He may want to push it off until next summer when he is a rfa and can have a third strong year to maximize his value. He may want to take the Ekblad route and sign a year earlier if the Flames pay him an acceptable amount

Well like those players he is going to command big dollars. I imagine it will take $6.5M/yr minimum to get him done on a lengthy deal.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

Sure, but here's some other things to thing about:

At 28 with even some reasonable money management these guys will have:
House paid in full and loaded with appliances, furniture, home theater...
Car or two paid in full.
Toys paid in full (boat, cabin, bike, boat...)
Decent savings in excess of 100K hopefully invested returning 5-8%.

At 28 that's pretty sick. So now he has to pay utilities, property tax, insurance and basic living expenses. That usually would take an average person until they were at least 40-50 to get done. And all that time they get to play hockey to get there. I'd take that and I'm sure anyone else would too.

Not to mention when you are done, I imagine you can land some pretty easy/lucrative work gigs inside or outside of hockey just by being a former NHLer.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

Thought it might be interesting to add some context to the discussion of trade proposals.

Below is a list of Calgary's 5 on 5 points per 60 min (filtered for having played more than 300 min for the season). For context, of the remaining teams in the playoffs the top 6 guys on the roster are all 1.7 or greater and in fact the top 6 guys on most playoff contending teams were above 1.7.

Johnny#Gaudreau 2.61
Sean#Monahan 2.32
Micheal#Ferland 2.05
Matthew#Tkachuk 1.69
Mikael#Backlund 1.47
Mark#Jankowski 1.41
Sam#Bennett 1.41
Michael#Frolik 1.26
Garnet#Hathaway 1.18
Matt#Stajan 1.15
Troy#Brouwer 1.13
Curtis#Lazar 1.09

Here are some of the trade/UFA candidates points per 60 min 5 on 5. For context I provided the delta from the highest points per 60 on the team in brackets to try and give a little balance the good team vs bad team ratio:

David#Perron 2.11 (-0.52) 4th on team
Corey#Perry 2.03 (-0.49) 4th on team
John#Tavares 2.02 (-0.86) 3rd on team (Barzal was a beast at 2.88)
Miles Wood 2.00 (-0.42) 3rd on team
Kevin#Hayes 1.96 (0) 1st on team
Brendan#Gallagher 1.88 (0) 1st on team
Andreas Athanasiou 1.81 (-0.46) 4th on team
Rick#Nash(Ranger's) 1.77 (-0.19) 4th on team
James#Neal 1.75 (-0.88) 6th on team
Mike#Hoffman 1.44 (-1.44) 6th on team
Alex#Galchenyuk 1.40 (-0.48) 5th on team
Ryan#O'Reilly 1.08 (-0.98) 9th on team


This is a simplistic analysis and skewed by coaching style and probably most significantly by quality of line mates. Obviously nobody is taking Perron over Tavares. What this does tell me though is that if I were Tre I would do some serious homework on Galchenyuk, Hoffman and O'Reilly before considering a trade for them. It also tells me that Hayes and Gallagher seem like pretty prime targets and if I'm looking to add speed and youth I take a chance on Athanasiou or Wood if the cost is right.

Looking at the list of players as a whole anyone James Neal and up would essentially become our 4th/5th best forward. Adding even one guy would have a significant impact on the roster IMO. Add one guy by trade and one by FA and you essentially replace 2 of Lazar, Hathaway and Brouwer with clear improvements.

I believe your best trade options are to try move Brodie +/- depending on the guy for either Hayes, Gallagher, Athanasiou or Wood (not sure Perry has the wheels to fit in here and that contract...). Then try to sign a proven UFA scorer like Nash or Neal. Buy out Brouwer if you get 2 guys and you keep him if you get one guy and you can still afford him.

Just a note, I left out JVR because as Sureloss pointed out to me, Calgary was on his no-trade list. I'm sure he hasn't all of a sudden changed his opinion of Calgary.

Let me know if you'd like another comparison and I'll look at those guys too.

Can you calculate Backlund's 5on5 points percentage for each year of his career compared to the league average, or say league playoff average?

[Kipper_3434]

Re: NHL players being overpaid. If you were one of the 600 best in the world at what you do, youd be rich too. These guys dont "get" to play hockey for a living. They out performed tens of thousands of people to get there and have to keep working to stay there. Sure would be a sick job though

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Can you calculate Backlund's 5on5 points percentage for each year of his career compared to the league average, or say league playoff average?

There's no easy way I know of to have a look at this. Here is a look at the last 4 years:

2017/2018
League average - 1.56
Backlund - 1.47 (225th best in the league tied with 7 others)

2016/2017
League average - 1.46
Backlund - 1.66 (138th best in the league tied with 4 others)

2015/2016
League average - 1.41
Backlund - 1.76 (108th best in the league tied with 4 others)

2014/2015
League average - 1.49
Backlund - 1.68 (146th best in the league tied with 6 others)

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

It's true he was on an awful team last year and that has an impact. He was also the 9th best forward for 5 on 5 points per 60 min on that team.

My eye test tells me he's a better player than that and in his previous years he was. He was 5th on the team in 17/18 and 5th in 16/17. He was not above 1.4 Points/60 in any of those years. Again, tire fire team, but you have to be sure if you are going to pay a hefty price from him. If it's me, you try and get him for a reasonable price and if you can't you move on.

For reference, Gallagher has been in the top 4 on MTL every year and never been below 1.79. I target Gallagher before O'Reilly.

I'd love either Gallagher or O'Reilly on the Flames. Both provide a bump where its needed, but if I had to choose I'd go with O'Reilly.

I look at O'Reilly's point totals the past few years. Whether he gets those 5 on 5 or PP those are big points you'd be adding to the Flames line up. 50-60 points over 70 games on average. If its mostly on the PP, well guess what? Flames have stunk on the PP and he's a face off monster to boot. Peters talks about the first 50/50 of a shift and a want to control the puck. He does that.

[The Cobra]

ROR, like Backlund, plays against the other teams top players. That tends to suppress 5v5 point totals.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

There's no easy way I know of to have a look at this. Here is a look at the last 4 years:

2017/2018
League average - 1.56
Backlund - 1.47 (225th best in the league tied with 7 others)

2016/2017
League average - 1.46
Backlund - 1.66 (138th best in the league tied with 4 others)

2015/2016
League average - 1.41
Backlund - 1.76 (108th best in the league tied with 4 others)

2014/2015
League average - 1.49
Backlund - 1.68 (146th best in the league tied with 6 others)

This is great, thanks.

Possible to compare Backlund to Paul Statsny, Kevin Hayes and Ryan O'Reilly over the same time frame?

Possible to segregate data based on icetime, say a group of a minute on either side of Backlund's average?

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Re: NHL players being overpaid. If you were one of the 600 best in the world at what you do, youd be rich too. These guys dont "get" to play hockey for a living. They out performed tens of thousands of people to get there and have to keep working to stay there. Sure would be a sick job though

I don't think anyone said NHLers are overpaid. I think they're paid what the market will bear, which is what any other paid job should be. I just don't want to hear that they aren't getting what they deserve because of their short life span. They have a sweet gig and should capitalize while they have the chance to do so.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

ROR, like Backlund, plays against the other teams top players. That tends to suppress 5v5 point totals.

And then he's an elite power play producer. For a team that couldn't score on the PP to save their life, someone who puts up points on the PP like O'Reilly has in the last 3 years is exactly what the Flames would be looking for.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

Sure, but here's some other things to thing about:

At 28 with even some reasonable money management these guys will have:
House paid in full and loaded with appliances, furniture, home theater...
Car or two paid in full.
Toys paid in full (boat, cabin, bike, boat...)
Decent savings in excess of 100K hopefully invested returning 5-8%.

At 28 that's pretty sick. So now he has to pay utilities, property tax, insurance and basic living expenses. That usually would take an average person until they were at least 40-50 to get done. And all that time they get to play hockey to get there. I'd take that and I'm sure anyone else would too.

One more thing to add to the list; players are pretty much off the hook in terms of having to pay for food for probably 85% of what eat during the season. The NHL, the never hungry league as they say.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Well like those players he is going to command big dollars. I imagine it will take $6.5M/yr minimum to get him done on a lengthy deal.

I have no problem giving Tkachuk that money. I just hope Brad doesn’t make the same mistake he did with Gaudreau and go 6 years when they should max him out on 8.

Would anyone be complaining about an 8x8 deal for Johnny? It was rumored he was after the same $7.5M that Tarasenko got.

Instead of being 1/4 of Johnny’s deal with zero playoff wins we are 1/3. I disagreed with his deal then and I do now. I hope the same mistake is not made with Tkachuk

[Toonage]

Listening to the end of the latest 31 Thoughts podcast and they are wondering what trades we could see this summer. Friedman suggests there is a lot
(his emphasis) of interest in Dougie Hamilton. You can hear the cringe in Jeff Marek's voice as he tells Calgary not to do it.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

This is great, thanks.

Possible to compare Backlund to Paul Statsny, Kevin Hayes and Ryan O'Reilly over the same time frame?

Possible to segregate data based on icetime, say a group of a minute on either side of Backlund's average?

Not the exact same stats as Drunk Uncle but Backlund compares pretty favourably at Even Strength to other "2nd" line centers when looking at Even Strength P/60, GF/60, & GA/60.

He's in the mix from a P/60 perspective, tends to still have a good GF/60 when he's on the ice, and usually does a better job of shutting down other teams top lines and has a better GA/60 than his comparables.

Only outlier is this past season where he got PDO'd to #### and had by far the lowest PDO season out of any of his comparables or in his career (.947 is pretty much 20 points lower than the next lowest comparable season at .966, and was the 5th worst among forwards who played at least 600 minutes in the entire league. Frolik was 3rd worst.)

Backlund - $5.35M/yr :

17/18 - P/60:1.56 GF/60: 2.32 GA/60: 3.24 PDO: .947
16/17 - P/60:1.90 GF/60:3.07 GA/60: 2.68 PDO: .991
15/16 - P/60:1.90 GF/60:2.97 GA/60: 2.52 PDO:.992

O'Reilly - $7.5M/yr :

17/18 - P/60: 1.61 GF/60: 2.55 GA/60: 3.5 PDO: .966
16/17 - P/60: 1.49 GF/60: 2.41 GA/60: 2.41 PDO: 1.000
15/16 - P/60: 1.91 GF/60: 2.53 GA/60: 3.21 PDO: .978

Kadri - $4.5M/yr:

17/18 - P/60:1.84 GF/60: 2.81 GA/60: 2.56 PDO: 1.015
16/17 - P/60: 2.25 GF/60: 2.91 GA/60: 3.11 PDO: .994
15/16 - P/60: 1.58 GF/60: 2.44 GA/60: 3.06 PDO: .973

Turris - $6.0M/yr:

17/18 - P/60: 1.70 GF/60: 3.33 GA/60: 1.80 PDO: 1.03
16/17 - P/60: 1.85 GF/60: 2.43 GA/60: 2.53 PDO: 1.00
15/16 - P/60: 1.37 GF/60: 2.22 GA/60: 3.13 PDO: .981

Little - $5.3M:
17/18 - P/60: 1.65 GF/60: 2.78 GA/60: 2.61 PDO: 1.01
16/17 - P/60: 2.52 GF/60: 3.31 GA/60: 3.45 PDO: .986
15/16 - P/60: 1.95 GF/60: 2.68 GA/60: 3.62 PDO: .966

Hayes - RFA (It really is too bad Gaudreau couldn't convince him to sign here, would be a great add):
17/18 - P/60: 1.92 GF/60: 2.76 GA/60: 2.76 PDO: 1.01
16/17 - P/60: 2.02 GF/60: 2.95 GA/60: 2.66 PDO: 1.03
15/16 - P/60: 1.88 GF/60: 2.57 GA/60: 2.26 PDO: 1.01

Krejci - $7.25M:
17/18 - P/60: 2.03 GF/60: 3.15 GA/60: 2.52 PDO: 1.007
16/17 - P/60: 1.72 GF/60: 2.34 GA/60: 2.71 PDO: .976
15/16 - P/60: 2.13 GF/60: 2.82 GA/60: 2.07 PDO: 1.023

Statsny - UFA:
17/18 - P/60: 2.15 GF/60: 3.10 GA/60: 2.89 PDO: .992
16/17 - P/60: 1.64 GF/60: 2.86 GA/60: 2.56 PDO: 1.009
15/16 - P/60: 2.13 GF/60: 3.17 GA/60: 2.86 PDO: .999

Just to top up Backlund has 99 Even Strength points the last 3 seasons - that puts him tied for 92th in the NHL among forwards (Tied for 47th among those listed as centers, which is not 100% accurate and has guys like Eberle listed as a center still).

Or in a 31 team league just inside the "1st line" production. (31 teams, 3 forwards on a top line, 93 "1st line forwards").

He's not an elite center but people that say he's a "3rd line" center are crazy. He is a great 2nd line center who puts up points, while still being solid defensively, and while always facing other teams top lines.

Also anybody who thinks we couldn't move his contract is out to lunch.

[Drunk Uncle]

Nm. Great summary SuperMatt!

Same conclusion. Hayes is the guy I look to if you want a center.

[Enoch Root]

5 on 5 pts per 60 is so over-used. People are using it here like it is some sort of measure of how good the player is. There are WAY too many variables to make those kinds of conclusions.

Take the same player, put them on a better team with better linemates, and in more positive situations, and their p/60 is going to go up. Not because they just became a better player, but because their situation is different.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

5 on 5 pts per 60 is so over-used. People are using it here like it is some sort of measure of how good the player is. There are WAY too many variables to make those kinds of conclusions.

Take the same player, put them on a better team with better linemates, and in more positive situations, and their p/60 is going to go up. Not because they just became a better player, but because their situation is different.

Those are all overcome if you use it to compare guys that you know play comparable roles / situations. Plus that critique is not any different than traditional measure of points/goals/assists.

In Backlund's case he is a guy who you know actually plays against other teams top lines / always in tough situations and then you comparable to guys on better teams, not as tough situations and those stats are similar.

Not sure how that would be anything but positive for Backlund.

Plus the best players tend to have better p/60, just helps you normalize for ice time and games missed.

For example here is the top 10 in Even Strength pts/60 the last two years.

16/17:

1)Sheary (Considering his centers were the next two guys maybe not that surprising, also probably not surprising the Pens won the cup)
2)Malkin
3)Crosby
4)Guentzel
5)McDavid
6)Scheifele
7)Marchand
8)Laine
9)Kane
10)Kucherov
22)Gaudreau

17/18

1)McDavid
2)Marchand
3)MacKinnon
4)Mark Stone
5)Marchessault
6)Malkin
7)Giroux
8)Matthews
9)Kucherov
10)Schwartz
14)Gaudreau