2017/2018 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by RoughRiderRowdy

Gojetsgo has got to be banned. Horrible poster and only tries to pick fights on the internet. One tough dude

PM a Mod then - or better yet use the ignore feature.
Publicly campaigning to have a poster banned is trash.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by VilleN

I disagree with this. adding a player of Tavares calibre to the Flames would 100% put us in contender territory.

Tkachuk - Tavares - Ferland
Gaudreau - Monahan - Bennett
Lazar - Backlund - Frolik
Mangiapane - Janko - Brouwer

Gio - Hamilton
Brodie - Hamonic
Kulak - Andersson

Smith
Rittich

That is a contending lineup... If adding Tavares to your team doesn't make you a contender your franchise is most likely a bottom feeder.

And you still have Foo, Dube, Shore, Klimchuk, Valimaki and any number of cheaper bottom six and bottom pairing guys if Mangiapane or Andersson don't stick.

[Bunk]

We need either a stud Centre or RW. With a high end right wing (say Kane for arguments sake), a scoring line of Tkachuk-Jankowski-Kane could work. The two wingers in this case could elevate Jankowski and carry the line.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Bennett/Ferland
Tkachuk-Jankowski-Kane
Dube-Backlund-Frolik/Foo

Assume say Bennett or Ferland, maybe Frolik is traded.

[NiklasSundblad]

IMO the Mangiapane Jankowski Hathaway line that functioned so well in Stockton should be the 4th line.

There's no way to fit Troy Brouwer into this lineup that doesn't suck.

Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk

[The Fonz]

If Tavares did sign here... when is the earliest that Tkachuk could sign a contract extension?

He'd be scary expensive if he had a season on Tavares' wing.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

If Tavares did sign here... when is the earliest that Tkachuk could sign a contract extension?

He'd be scary expensive if he had a season on Tavares' wing.

Good point... can't he sign this summer? I'd offer him 7m x 8y. Although Tavares likely won't be signing here, I have a feeling Tkachuk has a breakout year. I imagine he'll be putting up peak Corey Perry numbers at some point in the next few years.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I love Tkachuk, but he has a career high of 49 points. He brings a lot to the team, he's young, and obviously just going to get better. But Gaudreau had to fight tooth and nails for his 6.75M contract and he already a point-per-game season under his belt. If Tkachuk were to sign soon, he would not be getting more than Gaudreau.

[Vinny01]

No matter what the Flames do at the draft and free agency Tkachuk should be getting an 8 year extension before the start of the season

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

No matter what the Flames do at the draft and free agency Tkachuk should be getting an 8 year extension before the start of the season

I don't see it. The Flames might want to but I imagine Tkachuk will want something like a two year bridge so when he signs his long term deal he will have more development and history to strengthen his case for big money.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I love Tkachuk, but he has a career high of 49 points. He brings a lot to the team, he's young, and obviously just going to get better. But Gaudreau had to fight tooth and nails for his 6.75M contract and he already a point-per-game season under his belt. If Tkachuk were to sign soon, he would not be getting more than Gaudreau.

I agree. I was hoping that if we re-upped him this summer, we could get him on a 7/8yr deal @ ~$5.5M.

As far as his season high of 49 points, I believe it's a bit misleading. He hasn't had the prime ice-time that Gaudreau & Monahan were given in their first couple seasons. I think that if he were consistently on that top line, and given #1 PP time, that Tkachuk would already be a ~65pt winger.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Well even if he played in all 82 games he would, likely, be getting close to that.

I wouldn't be disappointed if they gave him the same contract as Monahan, who's stats he mirrors more closely than Gaudreau's after two seasons in the league.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I don't see it. The Flames might want to but I imagine Tkachuk will want something like a two year bridge so when he signs his long term deal he will have more development and history to strengthen his case for big money.

The bridge deal doesn't seem to happen very often any more for players like Tkachuk (coming off a successful ELC). They seem to be used as show me contracts for players like Bennett or Ferland. I imagine BT will do all he can to lock Tkachuk up for the long term.

[Toonage]

What deal takes Tkachuk to UFA status? 4 year extension?

[Drunk Uncle]

Thought it might be interesting to add some context to the discussion of trade proposals.

Below is a list of Calgary's 5 on 5 points per 60 min (filtered for having played more than 300 min for the season). For context, of the remaining teams in the playoffs the top 6 guys on the roster are all 1.7 or greater and in fact the top 6 guys on most playoff contending teams were above 1.7.

Johnny#Gaudreau 2.61
Sean#Monahan 2.32
Micheal#Ferland 2.05
Matthew#Tkachuk 1.69
Mikael#Backlund 1.47
Mark#Jankowski 1.41
Sam#Bennett 1.41
Michael#Frolik 1.26
Garnet#Hathaway 1.18
Matt#Stajan 1.15
Troy#Brouwer 1.13
Curtis#Lazar 1.09

Here are some of the trade/UFA candidates points per 60 min 5 on 5. For context I provided the delta from the highest points per 60 on the team in brackets to try and give a little balance the good team vs bad team ratio:

David#Perron 2.11 (-0.52) 4th on team
Corey#Perry 2.03 (-0.49) 4th on team
John#Tavares 2.02 (-0.86) 3rd on team (Barzal was a beast at 2.88)
Miles Wood 2.00 (-0.42) 3rd on team
Kevin#Hayes 1.96 (0) 1st on team
Brendan#Gallagher 1.88 (0) 1st on team
Andreas Athanasiou 1.81 (-0.46) 4th on team
Rick#Nash(Ranger's) 1.77 (-0.19) 4th on team
James#Neal 1.75 (-0.88) 6th on team
Mike#Hoffman 1.44 (-1.44) 6th on team
Alex#Galchenyuk 1.40 (-0.48) 5th on team
Ryan#O'Reilly 1.08 (-0.98) 9th on team


This is a simplistic analysis and skewed by coaching style and probably most significantly by quality of line mates. Obviously nobody is taking Perron over Tavares. What this does tell me though is that if I were Tre I would do some serious homework on Galchenyuk, Hoffman and O'Reilly before considering a trade for them. It also tells me that Hayes and Gallagher seem like pretty prime targets and if I'm looking to add speed and youth I take a chance on Athanasiou or Wood if the cost is right.

Looking at the list of players as a whole anyone James Neal and up would essentially become our 4th/5th best forward. Adding even one guy would have a significant impact on the roster IMO. Add one guy by trade and one by FA and you essentially replace 2 of Lazar, Hathaway and Brouwer with clear improvements.

I believe your best trade options are to try move Brodie +/- depending on the guy for either Hayes, Gallagher, Athanasiou or Wood (not sure Perry has the wheels to fit in here and that contract...). Then try to sign a proven UFA scorer like Nash or Neal. Buy out Brouwer if you get 2 guys and you keep him if you get one guy and you can still afford him.

Just a note, I left out JVR because as Sureloss pointed out to me, Calgary was on his no-trade list. I'm sure he hasn't all of a sudden changed his opinion of Calgary.

Let me know if you'd like another comparison and I'll look at those guys too.

[Strange Brew]

ROR's 5 on 5 scoring worse than Lazar. Yikes.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

ROR's 5 on 5 scoring worse than Lazar. Yikes.

Well, he did play for the Sabres.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Well, he did play for the Sabres.

True, but it's not like Lazar was blessed with great linemates.

ROR brings more to the table no doubt, but that's a rather striking statistic. 9th on their team for crying out loud.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I don't see it. The Flames might want to but I imagine Tkachuk will want something like a two year bridge so when he signs his long term deal he will have more development and history to strengthen his case for big money.

I don’t see how Tkachuk doesn’t follow suit of the majority of high pick/high impact players coming out of their ELC and sign a long term deal. He may want to push it off until next summer when he is a rfa and can have a third strong year to maximize his value. He may want to take the Ekblad route and sign a year earlier if the Flames pay him an acceptable amount

[Incogneto]

Just for reference in the conversation as of late, here is a site that shows the overall 'take home' for hockey players dependant on cities/states/provinces:
https://gavingroup.ca/nhl-tax-calculator/

Don't forget that players also pay 3-5% to their agent, and 10-15% to Escrow (rarely get any back).

So the math on a $10M salary in Calgary is:
Escrow (assume 15%): $1,500,000
Remaining: $8,500,000
Taxes (47.6% in AB): $4,046,849
Agent (assume 3%): $300,000
Takehome: $4,153,151

I know its like 'boo hoo, Millionaires!', but I do think its interesting how fast a $10M contract turns into $4.

....Now think about the players that make $1M a year:
Escrow (assume 15%): $150,000
Remaining: $850,000
Taxes (47.6% in AB): $374,849
Agent (assume 3%): $30,000
Takehome: $445,151

These guys have an average career of, what, 4 seasons? So many of these kids are done at 28 with no education with career take home of $1,780,604

Its a lot....but not a ton.

Just some stuff to think about.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

Thought it might be interesting to add some context to the discussion of trade proposals.

Below is a list of Calgary's 5 on 5 points per 60 min (filtered for having played more than 300 min for the season). For context, of the remaining teams in the playoffs the top 6 guys on the roster are all 1.7 or greater and in fact the top 6 guys on most playoff contending teams were above 1.7.

That's a great list. Agreed that Hayes and Gallagher are good targets. Any idea which of the players on that list are RH shots?