Unfortunately we also remember every other newbie/unproven coach hired by the Flames in the 30 years since then.
I hope it turns out like Bob...I just don't get why this team continually takes these chances, considering the mediocre results every time we do so.
This franchise has been terrible... awful at picking front office/coaching personnel. Let's hope this is the one that bucks the trend. At least we will have a really good insider with respect to Peters to post info for us.
Honestly, this (probable) hiring seems in line with Treliving's "process." It seems he wants a puck possession team and is happy with what Gulutzan was trying to achieve (aside from the results).
If Peters brings the same system that management wants, seems like a good fit. The hope is that his harder approach will improve some of the lazy efforts we witnessed over the last couple of years.
Not sure how to feel about it yet, but I have to respect that Treliving is sticking with his overall vision, for better or for worse. His job depends on this hiring so he must be confident.
5 v 5 CF% has a % correlation of 37.1. 5 v 5 FF% has a % correlation of 33.0. 5 v 5 SF% has a % correlation of 32.6%. These metrics are actually pretty important when you consider that PP% has a % correlation of 7.3% and PK% has a % correlation of 3.9%.
I'm not saying any of the stats tells the whole story. But, if you look at all of them in context and over time, they can be helpful.
I don't think they should be written off.
Rob Vollman says you can explain about 35% of success through the analytics we currently have. There is a lot of room to improve (just look at baseball), but that's a pretty sizeable contribution.
I don't know how much you use stats to explain things in your field, but those correlations are really low for anyone trying to explain results. It's just not enough to have any kind of confidence to draw conclusions from. 70% is really ambiguous for explanatory purposes, never mind 35%.
But again, it's not just the lack of clarity in the numbers, it's the conclusions people draw from them. If your performance sucks, and an analytical number that explains about 35% of the results is telling you that you're actually doing better than the results say, you should be looking for other explanations.
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Unfortunately we also remember every other newbie/unproven coach hired by the Flames in the 30 years since then.
I hope it turns out like Bob...I just don't get why this team continually takes these chances, considering the mediocre results every time we do so.
I don't think they though Brent Sutter was taking a chance, or Keenan, or Playfair for that matter.
Coaching success seems to be a huge crapshoot to me. The ones with good track records or big names fall on their faces and unknowns find success as often as the opposite. Every one of the big names available has been fired a couple times. FWIW Peters has never been fired.
I couldn’t even get through this entire thread. What an embarrassing thread for our fan base. We whined all year about Gulutzan and now we’re going to whine about our next coach before he’s even our coach?
God God people. Can’t we just be happy it’s not Gulutzan? Can we give the new guy a chance before hating him? If it’s going to be non-stop negativity about Peters all summer then I’m out.
I can guarantee you none of you watched enough Hurricanes games this year to be able to form a credible opinion on Bill Peters. He’s not my first choice but if he is who they choose I’m more than willing to give him a shot.
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Just wait.... Torts has a successful but short lifespan with teams. He could become available with a monumental collapse followed by player interviews of guys no longer listening to the pounding chest.
I hate to say it but Peters doesn't seem like much of an upgrade on GG. Cameron was the absolute biggest train wreck known to the flames this past season and with a monkey in charge of the PP we would have made the playoffs. This is a squeak into playoffs team with GG and it is the same with Peters imo.
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I couldn’t even get through this entire thread. What an embarrassing thread for our fan base. We whined all year about Gulutzan and now we’re going to whine about our next coach before he’s even our coach?
God God people. Can’t we just be happy it’s not Gulutzan? Can we give the new guy a chance before hating him? If it’s going to be non-stop negativity about Peters all summer then I’m out.
I can guarantee you none of you watched enough Hurricanes games this year to be able to form a credible opinion on Bill Peters. He’s not my first choice but if he is who they choose I’m more than willing to give him a shot.
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I don't think they though Brent Sutter was taking a chance, or Keenan, or Playfair for that matter.
Keenan doesn't fall into the category I was speaking to (he's more of a "retread looking for a last chance"). Playfair was definitely taking a chance, he had no head coaching experience in the league. Sutter was less of a chance, but yet another relatively unproven coach with no playoff success.
You look at the history of coaches on this team, and there are very few times they went out and got anyone who was considered a bonafide top-tier coach at the time of hire. You would need very few fingers...perhaps just one.
I don't know how much you use stats to explain things in your field, but those correlations are really low for anyone trying to explain results. It's just not enough to have any kind of confidence to draw conclusions from. 70% is really ambiguous for explanatory purposes, never mind 35%.
But again, it's not just the lack of clarity in the numbers, it's the conclusions people draw from them. If your performance sucks, and an analytical number that explains about 35% of the results is telling you that you're actually doing better than the results say, you should be looking for other explanations.
You know what? I've made a huge mistake.
The correlation with winning is in the second column so I don't get why Vollman said that. Maybe I misheard him or I don't remember properly. As you can see, I make a lot of mistakes.
The correlations for 5 v 5 CF%, 5 v 5 FF%, 5 v 5 SF% are actually between 52% and 54%. 5 v 5 PDO (sh% + save %) is 54.6%.
I think you have to add up the effects of all the stats to be able to predict success as well as possible.
In general, I think the best teams have a lot of things going well for them: great goaltending (save %); the ability to transition the puck quickly from the defensive zone and keep the puck in the offensive zone (CF%); the ability to actually get pucks through on net (SF%), generate chances (SC%) and high-danger chances (HDSC%); and capitalize on chances (sh%).
The individual stats are flawed. For example, just because you have the puck close to the net doesn't mean you actually got a great shot on net so HDSC% is flawed.
But if you add all them up, I think there's a good chance of predicting success.
I think its funny because if I wrote that paragraph about how the best teams have a lot of things going well for them and just didn't include the stats in the brackets, would you disagree with me?
I couldn’t even get through this entire thread. What an embarrassing thread for our fan base. We whined all year about Gulutzan and now we’re going to whine about our next coach before he’s even our coach?
God God people. Can’t we just be happy it’s not Gulutzan? Can we give the new guy a chance before hating him? If it’s going to be non-stop negativity about Peters all summer then I’m out.
I can guarantee you none of you watched enough Hurricanes games this year to be able to form a credible opinion on Bill Peters. He’s not my first choice but if he is who they choose I’m more than willing to give him a shot.
Out of thanks so I'll just say that your post sums up my thoughts very well.
I couldn’t even get through this entire thread. What an embarrassing thread for our fan base. We whined all year about Gulutzan and now we’re going to whine about our next coach before he’s even our coach?
God God people. Can’t we just be happy it’s not Gulutzan? Can we give the new guy a chance before hating him? If it’s going to be non-stop negativity about Peters all summer then I’m out.
I can guarantee you none of you watched enough Hurricanes games this year to be able to form a credible opinion on Bill Peters. He’s not my first choice but if he is who they choose I’m more than willing to give him a shot.
The game early in the year Carolina beat us, I was at the dome and was quite impressed with how they played. Their record wasn't great, but their roster wasn't too great either. Same system (some continuity), better players, fresh start, might work. That's all I got.
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I couldn’t even get through this entire thread. What an embarrassing thread for our fan base. We whined all year about Gulutzan and now we’re going to whine about our next coach before he’s even our coach?
God God people. Can’t we just be happy it’s not Gulutzan? Can we give the new guy a chance before hating him? If it’s going to be non-stop negativity about Peters all summer then I’m out.
I can guarantee you none of you watched enough Hurricanes games this year to be able to form a credible opinion on Bill Peters. He’s not my first choice but if he is who they choose I’m more than willing to give him a shot.
I didn't whine all year about GG, I actually defended him for the majority of it. I can't be happy it isn't GG because honestly I would rather we kept Gully than bring in an even worse coach. At best it is a lateral move, what is the point? Sick of losing, bring in a vet coach who has won already.
The game early in the year Carolina beat us, I was at the dome and was quite impressed with how they played. Their record wasn't great, but their roster wasn't too great either. Same system (some continuity), better players, fresh start, might work. That's all I got.
I completely agree with this comment. I was at that game as well and was blown away by how good Carolina looked. I couldn’t believe it was the Hurricanes we were playing to be honest.
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